In the past month since the previous two posts were written I have played live roulette quite frequently ( and further tested and reinforced the above findings) and re-written my source book on the private bet, reviewed many of my earlier bets and applications. By writing down ( and thus explaining as you would do as if talking) this makes clearer the process and reasons for the play and even leads to further questions and research to be conducted.
Despite some of the grandiose claims and risk taking using progression applied by some writers and players of baccarat, having seen some of the catastrophic damage done to lives by progression play, I prefer to work with roulette, and this will be a good opportunity to state the reasons. Recall one of my mentors lost over $1 million in LV and that was over 25 years ago when the value would equate to $3M today. He played roulette but he used sophisticated extended progressions. He still got beaten by a rogue wave. After later failures in London, after play at the Ritz, that individual had to endure a complete breakdown and later gave up gambling. Think through the consequences of poor choices. Always apply a stop loss, but where emotions are involved and not controlled and harnessed, disaster may be a consequence, with further implications. Think it through....
In order to access the possibility of significant profit in baccarat and in several casino card games it is necessary to have a large bank, and by the disclaimers issued by those advocates, it is funding 'you can afford to lose'. It seems progressions are essential for such work.
This is absolute madness of course. Who is going to raise $50,000 as risk capital and then see it potentially evaporate, whilst in the meantime in other compartments of this dream life have a mortgage free home and a $500,000 equity investment fund. Perhaps it is a little tongue in cheek. What percentage of the population, and what proportion of the readers on this Forum can qualify to be in this category.
My suggestion, to avoid the drama, is instead to study and play roulette. Access a suitable but modest risk bank - 1000 units would be ample- and then build patiently and professionally. There may be a few false starts, but in due course the player who has real specialised knowledge will be able to accumulate at the rate on average, flat staking, at +5% per session. Playing 5 sessions per week ( they may only be half an hour duration and free from stress, anxiety and high bp, free of bad temper fear and bad language) the RB can be doubled monthly. Within a year or two there will be adequate surplus returns to enable roulette applied semi professionally to assist with the priorities of living for the player and family.
You just need a vision, a plan, knowledge and realistic application to suit your personal style.
The beauty of roulette is that it is fast ( a spin per minute live) and it pays 35-1 for an inside table hit. It is a private game - you do not have to share a table with actors or blowhards, you just focus and concentrate.
Mind you, some extraordinary scenes can be witnessed. Yesterday after finishing my session - it was a slippery small loss- I had a beer upstairs on the beautiful mezzanine level which looks out over the casino floor below and the chandeliers above. I was watching the NZ cricketers win at the World Cup - the live game was only a few km away to the north and you could virtually hear the crowd when another wicket fell. Below me I watched an amusing but rather sad spectacle at one of the roulette tables. There were about five key players. Two of them were past regulars and high stakes bettors. They both stood. Standing at a roulette table to me is like body language for am about to leave, and loss. By contrast if staying on a for several spins I would rather sit and maybe take notes or do some mental arithmetic. There is always a premium seat- the one where others cannot reach over you and distract or irritate you. That is such a waste of nervous energy.
These two were standing and spending about $500 per spin often with quite a spread on the table and lots of splits. Between them and seated was a determined and rather stubborn Chinese lady who refused to be intimidated and doggedly reached out to place her bets with the two guys reaching all over and ahead of her to place bets, and under some time pressure, and in an increasing state of anxiety and frustration. They were all losing. Probably blaming each other but missing this little WF and wheel section gem.
This sequence works on so many levels and with so many bets a smart player would have scooped up rich dividends for section, finales, streets and WF. The three continued to tussle, squabble and continually lose money. In fact I saw them over this 20 minute episode lose thousands with only a one split to cover zero, hopelessly falling backwards and probably really having a bad time.
Sure, a scene from Dostoevsky, yet this was only early afternoon, and a smarter location, despite the lack of choice of tables as it was early in the day, was the rapid roulette with separate screens which gives space and privacy. These three players had not realised their huge 'power loss' while fussing at their table, and all had regular fixed bets not adjusting for the short cycles of roulette.
This is just observation and I am not judging these individuals as in the past I have been swept up in the moment, but with the benefit of detachment I saw this episode so clearly. It was a huge opportunity yet lost in the dust and confusion. Roulette needs keen observation, attention, discipline and reading of the game situation and immediate context.
There are many successful bets in roulette and by studying gaps, and or programs that can even highlight suitable opportunities where you can even be advised where to bet ( internet live). By taking a reverse attitude, and reversing what everybody else does so badly, you can make play short, swift, successful and effective usually within 20-30 minutes of real time, and simply accumulate and build strings of wins. There will be occasional losses and setbacks but by positioning yourself to approach the game and sessions unlike all the others, you can succeed and win.
Of course many gamblers - and those of poor self knowledge, low self esteem, limited vocabulary, poor self discipline, inability to focus or persevere, with no patience - will fail.
Overlay upon that successful strategy outlined an ability to read sessions ( takes 10-20 spins to assess a trend) and note that 70% of them should be ended as soon as possible, but that 30% should be extended, and you have faster progress.
It is fantastic to have a the tiger mentality when in a position of opportunity and attack, but also as part of the ideal technique, to be able to stonewall, buy time, pause, or fold and walk away at times, without distress.
Loss is part of the game as much as winning, and by having a bigger view, and playing the right game, and the right way ( tuned also to your particular personality characteristics), you can leave a casino feeling fine at all times even though you have just experienced ( but understood) loss, or even a string of losses. You know that inevitably you will encounter a more than adequate string of wins that will erase the loss and continue the growth of your resources and your understanding.
Experience teaches this.
Now of course there will be some relatively affluent players who, knowing the game inside out, and matching their personalities to the style they choose to play will go for selected aggressive progressions at times. This will be based on hard evidence of usual ratios. And yes it is thrilling to leverage the bets while winning. Awaiting the closure and relative anxiety of a progression to bridge a loss may also appeal. Those players know what they are doing.
My observation is in the context of some recent baccarat posts that encourage really big punts. Just do it if you have to with eyes wide open.
I am trying to show another way by using roulette which because of its payouts offers less risk exposure and the opportunity to leverage when in a strong position which can be often quite accurately read. The same may not be so with the relative uncertainties of the cards.
It is possible to be managed and controlled through flat staking and the occasional step of unit value that can be applied as the RB grows but also in the 30% of sessions that can justify the apparent further risk exposure ( which actually is the reverse).
Next notes will be on handling loss, and handling winning.