BetSelection.cc

Please login or register.

Topic: Why Does This Bet Work?  (Read 25706 times)

0 Members and 1 Guest are viewing this topic.

Offline XXVV

  • Moderator
  • *****
  • Posts: 1697
  • Gender: Male
  • Legio XX Valeria Victrix LVX
    • View Profile
Re: Why Does This Bet Work?
« Reply #15 on: February 19, 2015, 03:19:59 am »
  • ReplyReply
  • Please note I refer only to roulette here. It may be that in other casino games mastery is swift and easy - certainly some would have you believe it, but I cannot comment as I play only roulette.  One fact that is evident and simple as well as inevitable is that when you play roulette, even with a tested or smarter bet, you will lose from time to time, and sometimes in longer cycles of loss streaks, sufficient to really test your faith in your work, and make you question and doubt what you are doing.

    This will either send you running scared, or more likely will have you face your personality frailties so that, depending on your personal chemistry, in varying degrees you will behave really badly and you will see and be confronted with your real weaknesses. In many instances, through poor choices, the behaviour patterns may lead to financial ruin and the end of relationships. To compound matters, many who keep going, possibly compulsively, will be in a state of denial, as they cannot see objectively, and they will have driven away much past support.

    If you can read and live through that and still believe there is light at the end, then you qualify for the next step.

    The next step is to accept loss, and plan how you personally will deal with it without anger, frustration, impatience, blame and self loathing. Also to examine with increasing honesty,  what in your personality needs work.

    To most people this may not occur.

    But with practice and a plan and encouragement we can develop increasing patience, focus, and critical objective analytical and strategic skills.

    Key is to learn to do the right thing at the right time and in the right place.

    That is one definition of luck but as the saying goes, you can make your own luck and can work the tilt to your favour.

    Say you develop a working GAP method.

    Test rigorously from a wide range of samples. Apply the bet live. Keep sessions as short as possible where you may less expose yourself to corrective cycles. Before the mathematical philosophers write in to say this a fallacy let me remind you of session behaviour I have noted in my own private bet.

    A  30-40%
    B  20-30%
    C  20-30%
    D  10-20%

    A is the winning streak type result and D is the losing streak type result.
    B starts well and falters
    C falters to start but recovers

    In summary I have found that in about one third of all sessions I play it would be wise to continue and gain say +200 units.
    In the remainder it would be wise to quit as soon as possible once the session type is understood, ie about 20-25 spins, and  if possible a small profit is taken or loss is kept less than -100 units in extreme cases.

    Now every bet will have it's unique characteristics but winning bets, or those that have a proven edge evaluated by flat staking over multiple large samples of 1000 spins or more ( gathered say from several smaller sessions of average duration 50-100 spins ), will exhibit session characteristics as described , and it is up to you to measure your performance.

    Also it is a fine idea to re-evaluate after a session to ask some tough questions, and to find out where, with hindsight you could have done better.

    In nine times out of ten you could have done better, as with loss or marginal sessions, it is better to stop sooner rather than later, and most do not know how to stop, or walk away, or abandon a losing cycle.

    So, there are some hard facts.

    In essence we seek to learn and practice to stop earlier, mitigate loss, and when the situation enables, prolong and even parlay a strong winning session.

    Those are some ways to learn to deal with loss.  Practice.


    Offline RouletteKEY

    • Full Member
    • ***
    • Posts: 116
      • View Profile
    Re: Why Does This Bet Work?
    « Reply #16 on: February 19, 2015, 05:50:30 pm »
  • ReplyReply
  • I just look at losses as part of the business...same as a marketing campaign that doesn't get the response I was looking for...there are tons of ways to lose money.  Like you said...learn from it....adjust and push forward.

    I like the "parlay" part the best....it's absolutely the most fun!

    Offline XXVV

    • Moderator
    • *****
    • Posts: 1697
    • Gender: Male
    • Legio XX Valeria Victrix LVX
      • View Profile
    Re: Why Does This Bet Work?
    « Reply #17 on: February 19, 2015, 09:43:02 pm »
  • ReplyReply
  • This note is to focus upon the upside, winning.

    We understand the downside; it is a fact we just have to learn to live with, adapt to and learn from. Where I am really coming from is that we achieve a level of understanding that enables a view of loss that is eventually much lighter, because we see the bigger picture and know our bet and its performance characteristics.  This is not my bet, this is your bet, or a type of bet tested and proven and assimilated enough so that is is an extension of the sum total of your skills, knowledge and understanding at this time, and forever improving.

    Eventually you can be calm in the face of adversity, and can see the absurdity, the humour when we fall short, make errors, or silly calls on an off day. No need to be so hard on yourself, or others.

    As I have shown from testing of my own private bet characteristics, there is a usual range of outcomes that are suitable for aggressive attack because they are in that 30% + range of sessions where there are strong signals to continue, where new all time highs are consecutive results, and you have achieved at least three consecutive wins.

    I used to recommend that at such a time that is a great place to stop and take profit. Well it still is, but research has shown that when you have a bet that achieves significant positive edge over several cycles of outcome spins then you are in a strong position to capitalize on a short cycle  burst of energy in the top quadrant of performance outcomes.

    At such a time, and these situations can extend for 10 to 30 spins or longer, then unit values can be stepped up and parlay bets can be leveraged. You will need to research past data to get a feel for the conditions and circumstances, duration available for your particular bet. For my own a simple 2 to 3 ratio on unit values may be enough, but always manage resources for plan B to enable exit strategies that protect fundamental minimum gain of say +5% per session, and not risk net loss from such a potentially favourable cycle.

    In my bet I have observed short cycles of up to +12 units per spin, and that is per set. I can play multiple sets but of course multiple sets may not necessarily all be functioning in an Alpha mode simultaneously - unlikely. However what I have seen is that multiple sets can all function negatively simultaneously in negative corrective phases and that is why it is never wise to increase risk exposure especially after early warning signs. Get out of bad passages quickly and write off loss if necessary.

    Recall I have stated my long term average gain works out between +30% to +70%, and so an earning rate of about +1 unit for every 2 spins (per set) is the expectation. Above this and you are sailing in calm waters.

    I remember one set of German spins where for 200 spins in the session performance was virtually break even only, and then suddenly over a period of 30 plus spins the bet came into sharp focus and the session earned + 320 units before closing after 250 spins.

    One idea I am keen to promote is to research and then design a simple efficient bet. Then apply it with a suitable bank but instead of going to extreme risk and difficulty of establishing a large bank, instead go for a gradual and steady accumulation.

    I got this idea after talking with colleagues and observing the trading patterns of the most successful of Wall Street Fund Managers.
    They experience loss from time to time and the best trade in all directions ( ie upward moving, horizontal and falling markets), with an average gain measured monthly. The markets like the figure of 72 because at +6% per month average the account value can double in 12 months. That the very best traders can average more than 3 times that figure is little known, but I have seen sufficient due diligence, and of course to qualify for such access a huge 'mass of investment capital' is required. Such is not possible in roulette because any casino has proven house and table limits to protect against their loss. But what is a parallel from the markets and what principle can be applied is that of average accumulation over an extended period, say monthly, and it is not difficult to play roulette daily and average say between +2% and +5%, even allowing for loss sessions, given you simply seek to accumulate, and remove yourself from risk exposure of corrective phases as earlier outlined.

    Such an approach is unknown or untenable for a gambler who has a compulsion to remain at the table where bio chemistry rules over reason.

    A month of gains at such average could enable a doubling of RB, just through well judged accumulation.

    Offline XXVV

    • Moderator
    • *****
    • Posts: 1697
    • Gender: Male
    • Legio XX Valeria Victrix LVX
      • View Profile
    Re: Why Does This Bet Work?
    « Reply #18 on: February 20, 2015, 04:38:33 pm »
  • ReplyReply
  • While on the subject of winning will now look at a few strategies.

    Everything to date is flat staking. In my attack strategy I use 6 attempts to target 9 numbers. Attempts 4,5,6, when needed, are merely defensive steps buying time but the combination of the decay curve advantage in the first attempt and the flat staking advantage where the first attempt is the most profitable, enables the bet to have success more often than not.

    When in an optimum session mode, Alpha state, then the bets can be stepped or parlayed within a session. I have suggested already a conservative gearing from say 2 up to 3, or then 3 to 5.  Try to disengage from the difficult sessions and instead strategically reinforce positive play on the 30 to 50 percent of sessions that are dynamic upward. Within a session you will know by spin 25-30 the status.

    It is also possible to build an attack plan that raises the starting unit month by month , ie  say 2 through to 50.

    I will leave it to you to extrapolate. It may be a good idea to motivate yourself with stepped goals but beware the traps of greed and  fantasies where the emotions get way out of hand, and also loss of focus and control.  Here I am focused on a practical daily plan that operates below the radar, and my personal play when time available is limited is at a consistent suitable level but flat.  I enjoy that. No pressure.

    Recall I recommend an RB from 500 to 1000 units but bring only 300 units to the table. The remainder is in reserve but on a 24 hour time delay for access. That is for cooling time worst case scenario, and when dealing at higher level units is absolutely essential. I have seen the coolest players behave irrationally under pressure. Know yourself, and also our hard wired characteristics.
    Keep a sense of humour and reality.

    Pivotal to the maintenance of the success of my bet is not only increased discretion as to bet efficiency at the commencement of a session and then early on how to proceed, but critically how to proceed when loss is encountered.

    Within reason I apply a second phase of attack which is an attempt to recover loss. For the smart ones who say well if the bet is so good why need a recovery, I answer that no bet is devised that can win all the time. That recovery phase actually freezes the action, stops further loss and avoids false signals. It is based on a statistical analysis of the most appropriate window to re-commence play after a trigger, and then the appropriate attack in the current conditions. These can vary and in extreme cases the bets should be delayed. Worst case scenario, about 1  case in 25 on average the recovery has to be abandoned and the loss written off, not to be chased. We are well aware of Gamblers Fallacy conditions and avoid such characteristics where possible.

    The net result is that losses are either neutralised, or are certainly mitigated. Note the best answer is sometimes to walk away.
    All this is part of the philosophy of the efficient bet.

    Offline XXVV

    • Moderator
    • *****
    • Posts: 1697
    • Gender: Male
    • Legio XX Valeria Victrix LVX
      • View Profile
    Re: Why Does This Bet Work?
    « Reply #19 on: February 20, 2015, 09:39:55 pm »
  • ReplyReply
  • It is essential to give proper credit to LG Holloway for his book 'Full Time Gambler' - a 60's classic written by the Englishman who made his living from shrewd very selective speculative investments in all forms of US gambling from racing to roulette.

    His classic book ( useful for roulette and baccarat) shows you how to research more effective and more efficient bets through, for example with roulette, measuring 'gap figures' between hits based on analysis of 100,000 recorded spins in numbers straight up, splits, streets, corners, sixains, dozens, cols and EC outcomes. His book points to where you might achieve an advantage by improved timing of entry and exit of bets**. He used graphs to illustrate the patterns of behaviour and thus peaks and suitable entry and exit points were clear. He encourages you thus to devise your own bets based on gap analysis.

    Importantly he goes into great detail for devising parlay bets P144/145 and wagering plans P97 onwards. He was the first to bluntly state the Psychological Battle P151.

    Wonderful source book and he sets the path clear for your individual research and application to follow.

    ** this is one key component for improving efficiency of a bet

    Offline AsymBacGuy

    • Hero Member
    • *****
    • Posts: 970
      • View Profile
    Re: Why Does This Bet Work?
    « Reply #20 on: February 20, 2015, 10:15:53 pm »
  • ReplyReply
  • Yep.

    as.
    Next to edge sorting it's me

    Offline XXVV

    • Moderator
    • *****
    • Posts: 1697
    • Gender: Male
    • Legio XX Valeria Victrix LVX
      • View Profile
    Re: Why Does This Bet Work?
    « Reply #21 on: February 21, 2015, 03:27:56 pm »
  • ReplyReply
  • Here is an example taken from BV yesterday - 20 spins

    36
    13
    15
    5
    21
    12
    1
    7
    36
    20
    33
    7
    24
    23
    27
    29
    19
    3
    3
    17

    I analysed these spins using 4 of my sets of my private bet. You will recall I use clustering of 18 temporarily dominant numbers and then exploit the disintegration of this clustering by a trigger and so reveal a target group. All this in small cycles.  4 hits all achieved on the first bet.  An optimum betting opportunity.  Returns well above average expectation.

    Following this principle  my bet achieved +108 units just on cluster play.

    The other sets did quite well so that in 4x 20 spins , ie 80 spins the result was +144 units all flat staking.

    In three out of four sets it was possible to get a read on the session type, all in 20 spins.

    Roulette is a game of short cycles with a lot of activity hidden below the surface. The hidden activity can be studied if you follow the principles I have outlined in several previous articles here. Recall some cycles can be as short as 3 spin outcomes.

    This will close the section that has looked into some of the reasons this bet works. Remember the bet works with varying degrees of performance. It wins more than it loses and when winning the player is encouraged to continue until the inevitable start of the correction phase. It is cyclic. At other times when the bet is right out of phase the signals are clear to the player to at least continue defensively, or in extreme circumstances after a stop loss is breached, to quit. The example above provided to me randomly from a colleague illustrates a particularly positive phase but demonstrates the short cycle nature of roulette and the harvest and abundance available when you know where to look. Hope this has been of interest to you all.
    xxvv


    Offline XXVV

    • Moderator
    • *****
    • Posts: 1697
    • Gender: Male
    • Legio XX Valeria Victrix LVX
      • View Profile
    Re: Why Does This Bet Work?
    « Reply #22 on: February 27, 2015, 12:48:02 am »
  • ReplyReply
  • There has been a lot of interest so will add a few more notes.
    The bet I use works so well because it organically is linked to the creative process of randomness.
    When I illustrated the stunning simplicity of a sequence such as

    3
    0
    3
    0
    26
    35
    3
    0

    ...there are eight 'independent' outcomes in this cluster. To call such expressions (solely) independent outcomes is ludicrous. There are times when connections form. Some are more obvious than others. This wheel section cluster is not only clumping but is symmetrical with regard to penultimate cycle outcomes. Yes there are individual spin outcomes but there is always context. The connections are many and always layering. Same as in life experience - always connections.

    Consider this example...

    1
    23
    33
    8
    30
    29
    28
    7
    13

    11 

    That is also symmetrical and a cluster but with differing criteria. The connections are a little more under the surface.

    The bet is able to recognize  and target short cycle symmetries and 'patterns'.  Recall that patterns are clusters arranged in such a way that we can identify a larger group and units within that add up to a greater whole. Our brains naturally recognize  such,  as these principles are organic, universal  and natural.

    I will give some examples of symmetries in live play in a later post.


    Offline XXVV

    • Moderator
    • *****
    • Posts: 1697
    • Gender: Male
    • Legio XX Valeria Victrix LVX
      • View Profile
    Re: Why Does This Bet Work?
    « Reply #23 on: February 27, 2015, 08:23:16 pm »
  • ReplyReply
  • In my previous notes I have written on symmetries but this is now in the context of clustering and fast effective, efficient bets. Here is a 17 spin sequence from a recent live game...

    18
    7
    5
    19
    35
    9
    6
    30  pivot of the symmetry (7- 8 on either side)
    6    this is the trigger/ hint for the mirror effect
    31  #9
    2
    3    #35
    19  #19
    12
    10  #5
    31  #18   opportunities to mirror symmetry by spreads of 7/9 targets

    Here is another example from the same session....

    30
    23
    36
    19   pivot of the symmetry
    36   trigger/ hint for the mirror effect - target 7/9 numbers
    16   #23
    11   #30
    8

    Here is another from the same session.....

    35
    29
    20
    27
    14
    1    14 and 1 are neighbours, so this is a pivot
    13  consider 27 and 13 as the focus centre ( neighbours on the wheel)
    29  #20  note - the bet spread would be directed toward 29 and then ultimately 35 ( I played 1 through to 7 inclusive)
    7    #29  note - ( I played 31 through to 35)
    35  #35  note - ( I played 29 through to 32)

    With such an approach there is nothing more complex or technical than simply keeping alert for mirror symmetries of various sorts and I have illustrated three examples here all within a 50 spin spread in one session. Below the surface there are profound linkages and connections that form and strengthen these short cycle clusters but you do not need to worry about this. Just harvest the fruit.

    These types of bet may sometimes crumble or not be perfectly formed , like an unfinished sandcastle in the sand washed by the incoming tide. However with patience you will find these gems and they are powerful because you will achieve 2-3 or more consecutive hits on the first spin attempt.

    +27
    +27
    +27  sub total +81 units - a great time to cash up.

    Recall the advice in self management/ money management - after 2-3 consecutive wins you have probably reached an all time high which is a great point or level at which to finish. By leaving at this stage you are defeating the corrective cycle that may have followed.

    This closes the section on this bet type and its various reasons/characteristics for achieving high efficiency and success.
    Hope this encourages your own applications. These are vertical symmetries ( as opposed to horizontal symmetries).
    xxvv

    Offline XXVV

    • Moderator
    • *****
    • Posts: 1697
    • Gender: Male
    • Legio XX Valeria Victrix LVX
      • View Profile
    Re: Why Does This Bet Work?
    « Reply #24 on: March 05, 2015, 09:15:56 pm »
  • ReplyReply
  • As there has been a lot of interest in the question titled by this thread, this material will be added to from time to time, and I will try to answer questions from genuine enquiries in order to try to encourage further research and application of successful bets in roulette.

    Will be able to use examples from  the third tranche of Wiesbaden tests and also (as with the new thread) from current live play at my local casino.

    Offline XXVV

    • Moderator
    • *****
    • Posts: 1697
    • Gender: Male
    • Legio XX Valeria Victrix LVX
      • View Profile
    Re: Why Does This Bet Work?
    « Reply #25 on: April 04, 2015, 06:56:50 pm »
  • ReplyReply
  • Sorry there has been a delay in adding to this material but prior to Easter I was extremely busy with professional life responsibilities, and recently a lot of travel.

    That has now settled and I am back playing live at Dublin (internet live). At first there were a few teething problems with the new site format a month ago, but now all is running smoothly. All the data I need is there although am not keen on their table format.

    However and in spite of this here is the result from last night's play.

    I started with 70 units and finished with 312 units.  73 spins were observed and 60 spins played live.

    Various techniques were considered and quickly evaluated in virtual play, and the focus went on to simply using my private bet  in this case ( for speed) based on only two sets - the wheel layout, and the table streets.

    It was an A type session with everything going like clockwork. As it was Easter there were no patrons at the table and there were three dealers with rapid 50 second spin rates.

    Again it demonstrated to me the folly of dealer signature and wheel measuring so called advantage play. This sequence of numbers flowed seamlessly and produced fantastic results ( I wish it was always so smooth). The A type sessions occur about 20% of all sessions types, and in this case both sets performed well and when in need of a recovery play sequence, three hits were quickly achieved.

    here are the spins

    11
    22
    1  **
    30
    27

         **( by the way notice that in a CD type cluster for wheel sections 1 is the middle and is thus   
              an ideal target)
    0
    16
    5
    9
    19
    28
    22  22 WF1
    12
    6
    22  hit  - great start
    ---
    27
    9
    5
    29
    24
    4
    3
    19
    11
    22
    16
    32
    30
    34
    --   dealer change
    17
    26
    7
    2
    19   19
    1
    26   26
    31
    28
    29   29
    13
    18
    28   28
    24   24
    10                    D streets recovery #1  also wheel section C recovery #1
    1     1 again
    11   11             D streets recovery #2  also wheel section C recovery #2
    22   22 again   D streets recovery #3
    ----  dealer change
    5      5                                                   also wheel section C recovery #3 and more to follow
    5      WF hit
    ----
    11   11 again
    36
    26   26 again big hit
    10
    7
    23
    23  23
    31
    33
    31  31   short symmetry bet penultimate bet cycles
    1
    25 
    4
    ---  dealer change
    20
    28
    7
    21
    8
    3
    20  20
    21  21
    19
    8    8  note how some numbers tail/ trail one another in short and medium cycles- big hit
    11  massive hit and cash up
    (24) this would have been a good hit also ( wheel and street combo again)
    (13) neighbour of 36 and 11
    (36) would have been a big hit
    (30)
    (34)  and close link.

    As always the WF serves a very use focus/ discipline reading of the game.

    Offline XXVV

    • Moderator
    • *****
    • Posts: 1697
    • Gender: Male
    • Legio XX Valeria Victrix LVX
      • View Profile
    Re: Why Does This Bet Work?
    « Reply #26 on: April 04, 2015, 07:02:13 pm »
  • ReplyReply
  • That was the live spin result. I have done an analysis of the two sets played and report the following results in theory.

    Wheel Set -180 units and peaked at +36 after 20 spins; type B- session

    Street Set +171 units finished at ATH, type A session.  Break even.

    So why did I win?

    The fast spin rate enabled only two sets to be recorded with the WF as an overlay.

    The way I play these days is to harness an efficient bet and overall view is to flat stake, yet short parlay strong phases  ( 2-3-5) such as the phase 2 recovery phase, and minimise loss by keeping the phase 1 play to a flat staking schedule unless there is a co-relation between the two sets, thus doubling bet sizes.

    That is what happened here.

    The Street set twice failed the first phase attack, but twice the recovery attack which consists of 3 individual attacks were hit as follows..

    trigger
    spin 3 hit
    spin 1 hit
    spin 1 hit   +9+27+27 =  +63 to recover from a loss of -54

    trigger
    spin 1 hit
    spin 2 hit
    spin 2 hit    +27 +18 +18 = +63 to recover from a loss of -54

    The play on the wheel set was not so fortunate but was compensated by playing the DOMINANT phase, ie on the wheel set the most action was in the CD cluster so 1 was a central target and also the area of BC cluster with focus on 11,13,36,8,24,23.

    When the two sets overlap this causes a resonance, and it is true to say that my play given the degree of experience I have with this bet becomes an intuitive response based on extended rational analysis over many years. My use of intuition is the correct understanding of intuition as reflecting profound rational analysis based on learned experience.

    It is impossible to write rules for such.

    That is where the 10,000 hours of experience shows to enable the tipping point from break even play to successful opportunities for winning.  Whether the opportunities are seized or not is another matter, as constructive action is another level again from the usual self destructive action level of most players, even if they could 'see' / 'sense' the opportunity. Truth is, it is invisible to most 'below the surface of appearances'.

    Hope this is constructive food for thought for those who are switched on.





    Offline XXVV

    • Moderator
    • *****
    • Posts: 1697
    • Gender: Male
    • Legio XX Valeria Victrix LVX
      • View Profile
    Re: Why Does This Bet Work?
    « Reply #27 on: April 05, 2015, 08:40:31 pm »
  • ReplyReply
  • Lets carry on with this line of thought.

    The next evening I continued the same DublinBet account from 312 units to 512 units in 53 spins.
    The session started like this...

    25
    5
    16
    2
    14
    25
    6
    25
    25.....

    favourable clustering you would agree.

    Some points in the context of 'why this bet works' regarding notes written elsewhere on the forum, and in the context of analysis of ongoing and past results.

    'Anthropomorphic' means attribution of human form and attributes to something which is not human. By this take for example symmetry. This characteristic, phenomenon is defined by the Greeks as 'agreement in dimensions,due proportion and arrangement, and this gives us a sense of harmony and beauty when perceived - some order, a pattern to which we can relate.

    It operates at all levels from particle physics to roulette outcomes in short cycles to reflection/ line symmetry in mathematical outcomes, to expressions of form in nature, such as the butterfly.

    In roulette I have given and will continue to give examples of short mirror symmetries which are of real practical application to our advantage. These are not illusions or silly tricks. Symmetry itself is not anthropomorphic.

    The WF example above featuring 25 ( and neighbour) is an example of clumping ( a rough or approximate symmetry)in a wheel section. I have found that very often when two appearances of the same number appear in close proximity then a third ( and sometimes fourth) appearance can follow, and with the payout of roulette at 35-1, this offers very fast short cycle leverage. Of course it does not always work, but generally with an example such as above it illustrates the wheel is in a clustering mode and repeat cycles may be short, and this gives the player formidable short term advantage.

    As with all manifestation there are degrees from light to dark or obscure to in focus, so I tend to use the expression' tending toward' to indicate a tendency toward an extreme such as perfect symmetry. With such a graded  observation (fuzzy and not black and white) many doors can open, ie doors of opportunity.

    Such repeats in other casino games may not offer such advantages, and that is why I play and recommend roulette.

    The session analysis will follow and I will reference Jeff Ma.

    Offline XXVV

    • Moderator
    • *****
    • Posts: 1697
    • Gender: Male
    • Legio XX Valeria Victrix LVX
      • View Profile
    Re: Why Does This Bet Work?
    « Reply #28 on: April 06, 2015, 01:11:58 am »
  • ReplyReply
  • On Dublin Bet last night 73 spins were observed. Gain +200 units in 73 spins, but only 40 spins played. WF was 1, 5, 8 over 68 spins.
    The private bet enabled Wheel Set +9 in 73 spins peaking at +72 , and the Street Set +63 in 73 spins peaking at +126.

    Overall +72 units in 144 spins being the anticipated +50% flat staking. Overall long term the private bet records gains in the range +30% to +80% given samples greater than 3000 spins and flat staking. As sessions live are usually in the order of 100 spins or less, this often represents 30 sessions which is a suitable statistical sample.

    Over the 30 sessions, some will be losers, and often as many as one third, but the losses are restricted. Winning sessions range from break even ( beats the house edge) to sometimes +300% on RB.

    Often these days I try to get traction on only 200-500 units, and will short parlay winning strong bets on a 2-3-5-8 basis. I try to keep weaker bets or losing bets to single units. Recovery phase 2 bets which often cluster in groups of 3 wins in a short sequence can be played at higher units because of relative reliability based on empirical evidence over tens of thousands of samples that meet my window of opportunity criteria. It demolishes gamblers fallacy concerns. But always take care because it has a 90% success rate. And as is often the case both winning and losing phases cluster.

    As I mentioned recently it would be pointless for me to provide the rules for my bet. Even those who know me quite well have difficulty in understanding my method which is now clearly set out in a report and commentary. It requires a complete overturning of mind set in seeing the linkages between spins, as opposed to the view that spins are independent. The truth is that both views are correct.

    What I now seek is an approximate break even type context, ie a session where outcomes are unfolding that are not hostile to this ethos. Massive clustering would be the antithesis of what I am seeking and require, but that extreme is covered by my WF overview which would thrive in such conditions. Statistical balance is what I seek for the predictive phase of my method, and this is emphasising change rather than same. Same enables clustering and repeats. I seek very short cycle clusters being repeatedly broken enabling predicted outcomes in rapid turn-over. In such sequences earnings can approach per set +10 units per spin flat staking.

    I often reflect on what is the best future communication for this bet.

    Is it best applied privately, discretely, or in a partnership in key casinos in short bursts with a partner player?

    Or should a book be written and published say in 5 years time.

    There is no rush because refinements and improvements in efficiency are always ongoing.

    While describing your ideas, your work of 30 years in written form, or in describing it in conversation with  a student or colleague, ideas and links are made fresh and stronger. Brain plasticity research/ creativity research is such that we know the clearer you can explain, the better will be your own understanding to reach further. I like ideas that have no limits.

    I can appreciate concrete linear for example for practical application in life experience, but I am partial to non-linear ways and I try to adapt and blend afresh daily.

    So while on this topic let's turn to MIT and Jeff Ma.

    I enjoy access to www.Quora.com where questions are raised and answered by the best and brightest. Recently George Sawyer, one of the founders of the original MIT Blackjack team, wrote a vivid overview of his experiences and also referred to an article by Jeff Ma. There are a couple of references here such as www.venturebeat.com and liveshapespace.com. Refer to www.tenexer.com as Jeff Ma's vehicle and also the books he has written - refer Amazon.com

    Within this material Jeff Ma has written of three key principles on how understanding blackjack can make you a better more successful entrepreneur. I will leave you to do the research but one principle does involve a weak bias to fold or be passive that needs to be shifted, and another which requires the player to have the mental strength to work through loss if that player has done his math homework and Jeff is a measurer and applier of data. At one stage in his early career at LV he lost $100,000 at the BJ table  even after following correct theoretical drill. After later recovering his composure, he returned later that evening and won +$125,000. However for the team their worst weekend was a $250,000 net loss. ( The best was of course $450,000).

    Of course the team approach is not needed in roulette because I am not interested in illegal methodologies ( although I admire the story of the guys who were the forerunners in the eudaemonic pie - thomas bass 1985).

    I believe roulette has vast potential for income but I personally make a major distinction between serious passive income through professionally managed ( by experts) accounts in the markets, and the slippery but fun hands on personal play ( perhaps the professional player needs to access a psychologist playing partner as part of the travelling show)at the tables that can provide free money. To me these work and should work at distinct levels. I like the notion of playing privately and/or with a playing partner in special locations. It takes free money to access free money however.

    Overall  I think roulette alone or in extreme can be harmful in that the player runs the danger of becoming self obsessed or absorbed forever questioning and checking performance.

    My model ahead is now a two tier approach; with one tier being free roulette play funded by substantial passive income that has been established as a first priority; and the second tier the serious money engine that takes 2-3 years to establish and have fully operational. It has taken me the last 30 years to come to this realisation. And most of the money goes to worthy goals and not just roulette. This is not the place to elaborate on detail but in my private blog later in the year I will enlarge on this and state the specific steps and locations now tested and connected.

    Nevertheless I see roulette as a remarkable microcosm of life, with so many life principles able to be viewed at the wheel, and in the behaviour around the wheel. No wonder we refer to 'The Wheel of Fortune'. It is just that it can become hypnotic.

    I notice some players now refer to wheel bias or short term wheel bias to replace the term 'dealer signature'. In my view, and this is my personal subjective view, the term bias or skew reflects the recognition by the short term aberrations which are part of the natural flow from the wheel. I love these and this is the water of life for me. I do not have to explain this; it just is. I work with what unfolds.

    I will write later on Jeff Ma and his work as well as the equally brilliant Semyon Dukach. They both operate as Angel Investors now and share their knowledge quite openly. But of course the casino has taken massive effective measures to neutralise advantage play. The same does not apply to roulette. Because they all believe it cannot be beaten.


    Offline XXVV

    • Moderator
    • *****
    • Posts: 1697
    • Gender: Male
    • Legio XX Valeria Victrix LVX
      • View Profile
    Re: Why Does This Bet Work?
    « Reply #29 on: April 07, 2015, 03:58:25 am »
  • ReplyReply
  • In a little more detail the cognitive biases are as follows....

    #1 omission bias

    The player falls into the trap of favouring the status quo, non action, instead of decisive aggressive action

    #2 optimisation bias

    It is starting to be better understand we are hard wired to be slightly more optimistic than pessimistic ( just as well - good design would you not agree by Life). Thus better to act upon true data analysis rather than gut feeling ( optimistic guess). Note I do not say 'intuition' here for this is a term grossly misunderstood by many. The truth is that intuition reflects the highest rational analysis. Those who do not understand or acknowledge this have yet a limited view of the power of the mind, and research is constantly modifying frontiers of what is known.

    #3 decisions

    Understand that decisions should be based upon data process accuracy and not results- this accounts for JM handling the loss of 2 x sets of $50,000 at the BJ table through following correct procedure. Later the same evening ( he returned to the BJ table when he re-calibrated after the devastating loss) he returned to eventually make +$125,000 and clear the loss plus some. In other words it is important to trust rational decisions and take a sometimes bigger picture view of the process.

    Also as my personal afterthought to the words of JM it is noted that conditional probability was always seen as the principle which elevated Blackjack amongst casino games. Upon this Professor Ed Thorp developed the idea of team support and card point counting in order to gain the necessary reduction in the house edge. Nevertheless because of the nature of the game and the periodic win opportunities extreme and highly noticeable leverage had to be systematically applied with massive risk banks and patience to grind long passages of play.

    The advantage that was obtained by the subsequent MIT teams has been neutralised somewhat.

    That, by contrast, roulette players are encouraged by the casinos to take notes, record numbers and attempt to devise systems to beat the wheel is most encouraging for me, in fact it is hilarious.

    The flaw in the way that the game is generally viewed is that spins are seen as independent events and thus conditional probability cannot be applied.

    I disagree and contrarily see all spins connected and with use in particular of short cycles and cluster analysis, see opportunities arise and fall away like the chop on the ocean surface. The wave surfaces, forms and period vary in characteristics enormously, and the skilled player can learn to read suitable useful forms, rather like the analogy of a surfer, swimmer or marine apparatus either surface or subsurface.

    More on this later but this is at the core of 'why this bet works'.