Player Dominated Shoe

[HunchBacShrimp]

This is like the 3rd or 4th time out of 5 trips I've walked up on a shoe with Player winning by 10 or more. This shoe was 1/3 complete before I got there. Player 44 to Banker 35.

P
B
PPPPPPP 7P I wasn't around for, saved me a 5u bet as I would have bet it went to 8
B
PPPPP
B
PPP
BBBBBB
PPPPP
B
PP
B
PPP
BB
P
BB
PP
BBBB
P
B
P
B
P
B
P
BBBBB
PP
B
P
B
PPP
BBBBBB
PPPPP

I like to bet P to avoid commission loss, but bet exactly opposite of last week thinking that surely I'd run into a B dom shoe. My bet was for P to single and for B to repeat.

+24u by decision 34 of the following shoe which was once again led by P 20 and B 14

[gr8player]

Hello, HBS.

Yes, I play "P-doms" just as quickly as I would any "B-dom".  Sure, there is a slight edge to the Banker's side, based upon the drawing rules (hence the reason for the 5% commish), but that slight edge don't count for a hill of beans into a good Player-dom.

But the real reason of my interjection here is to recount exactly what transpired on Tuesday night, Borgata bac table, if you really want to get "down and dirty" regarding Player doms:

I'm playing bac, a bit of a back-and-forth session, and was probably about even or up one unit, but it was still only the first shoe (but towards the last third of it).  An Asian fellow joins the table (I'd say a fellow in his mid-30's) and he's bemoaning his bad luck to the floor mgr who asked him for his player's card, saying he had lost $3500 at his last table; he bought in for no dollars, as he brought to the table about $2000 in chips in black and purp denom.

Well, as luck would have it (for him, anyway...and I), a Player-dom begins to form.  (Sidenote: Or, should I say, a "possible" P-dom begins to form...it may, or may not, continue, but, as per usual, I'm on regardless.)  He sees me betting Player, he copy-cats (yes, I can tell when a player bets on his own as opposed to riding with someone else...in fact...he was hesitant, as he appeared to me, as most players, especially Asians, to prefer the Banker's side of things).

So, Player it is.  I parlay.  He parlays.  After that win, I leave it up (read: same bet, not a parlay, as now I'm at full unit play), as does he.  Another Player win...oh, yeah, this is getting interesting...and now this dom might be gaining some steam.  Of course, I'm same bet, but, now, he decides to parlay yet again.  Player wins.  He looks at me with that expression of "why aren't you betting more money?", but who cares what he thinks, and, hey...I'm the person that initially put you onto this P-dom in the first place.

OK....bottom line:  I won 8 units on that dom...I was up 9, but lost the last bet.  Shoe's over for me, I'm about to cash out.
His bottom line as a little better...OK, OK...MUCH better:  He colored up for $19,000, as he was bangin' those Player bets for all they were worth.

Two morals to the story:

1.)  Player doms are as pretty much as frequent as B doms are, and just as profitable (more so, no commish), so don't let those people tell you to bet only the Banker side...to me, that'd be tantamount to entering a boxing match with one hand tied around your back.

2.)  Many players, and, in my experience, especially many Asian players, are "over-betting" their bankrolls....great when they win, but any relatively-average W/L drawdown will see them going broke much too quickly.  IMHO, they become their own worst enemies....their battle against their own greed is, inevitably, an unwinnable one.

[AsymBacGuy]

This is like the 3rd or 4th time out of 5 trips I've walked up on a shoe with Player winning by 10 or more. This shoe was 1/3 complete before I got there. Player 44 to Banker 35.

P
B
PPPPPPP 7P I wasn't around for, saved me a 5u bet as I would have bet it went to 8
B
PPPPP
PPP
BBBBBB
PPPPP
B
PP
B
PPP
BB
P
BB
PP
BBBB
P
B
P
B
P
B
P
BBBBB
PP
B
P
B
PPP
BBBBBB
PPPPP

I like to bet P to avoid commission loss, but bet exactly opposite of last week thinking that surely I'd run into a B dom shoe. My bet was for P to single and for B to repeat.

+24u by decision 34 of the following shoe which was once again led by P 20 and B 14

Something wrong went on your shoe texture. :-)

as.
 

[HunchBacShrimp]

AsymBacGuy,

Good eye for detail. There should have been a single B in between those two P streaks you highlighted. Typo on my part.

I fixed it.

[ADulay]

2.)  Many players, and, in my experience, especially many Asian players, are "over-betting" their bankrolls....great when they win, but any relatively-average W/L drawdown will see them going broke much too quickly.  IMHO, they become their own worst enemies....their battle against their own greed is, inevitably, an unwinnable one.

Gr8,

  I've seen that happen a few times myself.  I would tend to agree with you.  Moving a parlay "too fast and too large" has killed many a potential winner for sure.

  AD

[HunchBacShrimp]

I have yet to see anyone at the Bac table bet with any rhyme or reason. Asian, Indian, Black, White, Red, Pink, Purple or otherwise. They all seem to just bet random amounts of chips. I seem to be of the minority that even separates my chips into easily countable stacks. Most everyone else just has a single pile stacked as high as they can get it. 40,50 even 60 chips tall.

I see people buying in for anywhere from 2k to 3k, losing it all in 3 to 6 bets and then buying in for another 2 to 3k and bet the same exact way, buying in 4,5 even 6 more times. With those kind of resources I find it incomprehensible that they don't employ some kind of method, some system. They don't even write any of the losses down, exhibiting no visible plan to recover those losses.

Absolutely floors me to see someone betting Banker nearly every hand until Banker streaks, and then they bet against it until they bust. 

BTW GR8, I've started that parlay trick. It's a good one. Bet for one side to single and parlay the next side to double. Very nice when it hits.

[gr8player]

BTW GR8, I've started that parlay trick. It's a good one. Bet for one side to single and parlay the next side to double. Very nice when it hits.

Yes, it truly is a "good one".  Think about it....you're effectively picking up three units of profit on the A BB or B AA (read: the 1-2 pattern), which is one of the more populated around.  Great play!

BUUUTTT, that said, what is the nemesis to that often-lucrative play?  That's right.....the "zig-zag" or A B A or B A B.  Certainly as populated as our winning example is.

So what's the answer:

Trending.

Trending both the "singles" and the "doubles".

In a shoe (or portion thereof) where the singles are coming in as "solitary" (read:one at a time), our parlay play is golden.

However, in the shoe (or portion thereof) where the singles are coming as "clustered" (read: connecting), our play becomes a "no-bet" (read: sit it out, wait for the better opportunity later...remember your P & D!).

And, of course, the same is true when measuring (read: trending) the "doubles".  If in this shoe (or portion thereof), the B side or the P side is showing a propensity for that "2-hole" (read: double) to hit, again, the parlay option is again in play.

So we need to know how to "read" the shoe if we're seeking to maximize our advantages.  Plain and simple.  If and when you can learn to do that effectively, this game becomes into a very clear focus most of the time.  NOT all of the time....I said MOST of the time....but, frankly, "most" is all you need.  Just make sure you never leave home without your P & D (read: Patience and Discipline).

(I can't close this post without the following:  That's just one trend we're speaking of here.  There are others just as "parlay worthy".  As a matter of fact, that "nemesis" I was just alluding to in my posted example....the "zig-zag"....when it is coming in as "connected", can be just as good an opportunity.  Now before you can even utter the words "Hey, you can't have it both ways"; yes, you can.  Again, the true trender needn't marry themselves to any one solitary play; rather, the true trender has the ability to maximize their profits on ANY of their "preferred" trends.  One needs, however, to KNOW exactly what it is that they are looking for, and then, of course, the best course of action to profit by it.)

Stay well.

[Jimske]

Yes, it truly is a "good one".  Think about it....you're effectively picking up three units of profit on the A BB or B AA (read: the 1-2 pattern), which is one of the more populated around.  Great play!

BUUUTTT, that said, what is the nemesis to that often-lucrative play?  That's right.....the "zig-zag" or A B A or B A B.  Certainly as populated as our winning example is.

So what's the answer:

Trending.

Trending both the "singles" and the "doubles".

In a shoe (or portion thereof) where the singles are coming in as "solitary" (read:one at a time), our parlay play is golden.

However, in the shoe (or portion thereof) where the singles are coming as "clustered" (read: connecting), our play becomes a "no-bet" (read: sit it out, wait for the better opportunity later...remember your P & D!).

And, of course, the same is true when measuring (read: trending) the "doubles".  If in this shoe (or portion thereof), the B side or the P side is showing a propensity for that "2-hole" (read: double) to hit, again, the parlay option is again in play.

So we need to know how to "read" the shoe if we're seeking to maximize our advantages.  Plain and simple.  If and when you can learn to do that effectively, this game becomes into a very clear focus most of the time.  NOT all of the time....I said MOST of the time....but, frankly, "most" is all you need.  Just make sure you never leave home without your P & D (read: Patience and Discipline).

(I can't close this post without the following:  That's just one trend we're speaking of here.  There are others just as "parlay worthy".  As a matter of fact, that "nemesis" I was just alluding to in my posted example....the "zig-zag"....when it is coming in as "connected", can be just as good an opportunity.  Now before you can even utter the words "Hey, you can't have it both ways"; yes, you can.  Again, the true trender needn't marry themselves to any one solitary play; rather, the true trender has the ability to maximize their profits on ANY of their "preferred" trends.  One needs, however, to KNOW exactly what it is that they are looking for, and then, of course, the best course of action to profit by it.)

Stay well.

I'm not criticizing this.   This is the basis of trending 101.  Give the major credit to Davis who has been the proponent of trending for decades.  The basis is the average lengths of decisions within a shoe.  The bias is the deviation from those averages.  Bet for the continuance or return.  Which is more likely?

[gr8player]

Hello, Jimske, I trust all is well with you.

Neither is "more likely".  But the true trender bets for the continuance of the bias.  Always and without question.

Why?:  You'll lose at the end of said bias, to be sure, but the loss is limited; however you'll win with the continuance, and those wins often times prove rather fruitful.

I have stats in my book on each of my preferred trend plays, and those stats include, among other things, the strike rates of each of those said trends for one hit, two hits, and "three & more" hits.  I call the "three & more" hits my "continuance".  I carry those stats because, as a part of my variance game, I get a good handle as to when at least one hit should appear, or as many as a "double hit" (read: 2 hits) might appear, and, last but certainly not least, when a "continuance" should be in order.

This is how I play the game, this is how I use the biases in my favor.  You referenced Mr. Davis; I believe he's more into using certain stats to try to determine bias; I, on the other hand, utilize certain stats in order to best profit from said bias.  To each his own, as they say.

Stay well.

[AsymBacGuy]

gr8player, if you state that nothing is "more likely" how a possible "bias" might be working for us?

If nothing is more likely than something else, everything will be proportionally placed and betting toward the normal deviations or, on the other hand, betting toward a RTM effect should be a useless task.

In a (almost) binomial system, after one W I'll expect to have the same amount of W and L; after a couple of W, I'll expect to have the same amount of W and L. And so on.

So I've to deduce that in your opinion such perfect binomial system is limited in some way.

Can you illuminate me on this?

as.   

[gr8player]

gr8player, if you state that nothing is "more likely" how a possible "bias" might be working for us?

While it is true that the game has always been and forever will be a "turn-of-the-card" even-chance game, where "likely-hood" is never to be mistaken for any sort of "guarantee", the player that still insists, in spite of these negative odds, to get the better of this game, will need their own personal "answers" to all that randomness can conjure with every turn of the cards.

As so begins our quest for a bet selection process.  And then a money-management process.  And then our entry/exit strategies.

This is our task.  We need "answers"....real, reliable, dependable, and consistent ANSWERS to the randomness question.

Yes, the outcomes, percentage-wise, are all roughly 50/50.  Hence the term: "even-chance".

So, in the face of that, what might the savvy player do?

I cannot answer for the majority; I can answer only for myself, as such:

I rely on "picking my spots" within certain portions of certain shoes where it APPEARS AS IF the results are "trending" my way.  Look, we all need a reason to bet (or "non-bet"), and I have mine.  And because I play only certain "preferred trends" that, again, APPEAR AS IF they might bring about clusters of wins, I am able to remain consistent in my bet selection process.  In other words, it works for me.

Now, that all said, I am not changing the odds of any one particular deal, or any one particular hand.  I am not saying that.  What I am saying is that I am of the opinion that my Player's Edges that I utilize are sufficient to counter the negative expectations that the player that is lacking in the use of those very same Player's Edges are succumbing to in their overall play.

It should also be noted here and now that if, in fact, I were able to rely upon my strike rates always and forever hitting at 53 to 54% that I'd be in no need of any money-management process, and simply resort to flat-betting.  Alas, that is not the case, as I play this game as everyone does....on a session-to-session basis....and need to adjust my bet sizes as I go along over my long term play; all in order to manage my recoup (when necessary), my time, and, well, my money.

We are the underdogs here....let's make no mistake of it.  There's but only a few things that we can do, only a few things that we, as players, truly can control, in order to turn the tide into our favor.  And, even when we get our games to that point, we've got to do it, again and again.  Every new session our counters get reset back to "0", no one cares if you won your last ten sessions, you've got to prove it all again at each new session.  And so, my friends, it ain't easy.

But "ain't easy" does not mean impossible.  But it does mean a true commitment and a true "answer" for all that this game can throw at you.  The player that concentrates more on the answer to the next outcome (be it won or lost) as opposed to predicting it....that is the player that I deem as worthy, that is the player with the real fighting chance at this game.  It is when you come to realize that "prediction" in this game will ultimately lead to frustration and failure; that the real importance is on your reaction to the results, your "answers" to the ultimate question of exactly what it is that you can and cannot control, this is where the winning end-game appears.

There are valid answers....patient, consistent play with bet sizing matched to certain strike-rate statistics....and there are invalid answers (imo)....betting every hand with steep negative progressions.

In the end...it's your money.  You must choose how to play it.

With that in mind, I wish you all the very best of it.

[gr8player]

As my time now permits, I'd like to further add:

Prediction, as I'm sure we can all testify, can be rather fickle.  Sometimes we might be "spot on", other times we might be rather "off".  So we come to realize this as a part of the game.  Can't be avoided. But it can (and, imo, MUST) be mitigated.  How?:

Well, first and foremost, we need consistency.  Why?  Because consistency breeds a workable and viable variance.  How?  Because, whether we like it or not, our plays must hit.  What's that you say, gr8player, they MUST hit?!  Yes, you read it right, they MUST hit.  At some point or another, your valid plays will appear.  It is, after all is said and done, only a matter of time.

OK, now that that's out of the way, let me continue:

The first thing that you need to know if you're effectively attempting to mitigate losses into any particularly-tough run is to KNOW YOUR NEMESIS.  That's right....forget for a moment what you need to win, let's focus here and now on what CAUSES YOU LOSE.  What does your losing stretch of decisions appear as?  Once you can readily identify that, you can then begin your process to mitigate it.  In other words, LOSE LESS.  Both decision- and money-wise.  Learning to curb your losses is paramount in this "turn-of--card" game....so you'd best learn to do so.

How about "no-betting"?  That's right....sitting out when your plays are nowhere to be found.  If you can effectively learn to do that, I can virtually promise you a much improved strike rate percentage and, just as importantly, a much more-intact bankroll.

You know where all this is leading, right?  Yes, you do....Patient and Disciplined play.  (I should get some sort of prize somehow, because that's got to be the millionth time that I've espoused the importance of my P & D.)

Why is it so important?:

BECAUSE THEN THE PRESSURE OF EACH DEAL, OF EACH DECISION, OF EACH "TURN-OF-THE CARDS", IS OF LESS AND LESS IMPORTANCE TO YOU.

And then you can concentrate your efforts on that which YOU ACTUALLY CAN CONTROL:

YOU.

Your game played at your pace to be bet when you please and how much.  You are now allowing the game to come to you, as opposed to you chasing the game.  Done correctly, you just might actually still BE THERE when your preferred plays do begin to pop.  And, even if not this shoe, or this table, that's OK too....because you didn't allow your "nemesis" to devour you (or your bankroll).

My friends, until you can fully grasp these concepts, I'm afraid that your biggest nemesis might actually be YOURSELF.  Don't let that happen....it is your responsibility to know exactly who it is that's risking your money.  What is it, truly, that defines you as a Baccarat player?

As always, take care and stay well.

[AsymBacGuy]

gr8player, I agree with many of your concepts and thanks for replying.

Nevertheless, I'm sure you have grasped that the baccarat world will provide some more likely events to happen, a thing you denied in a recent post.
Or, better sayed, that the game's outcomes are limited in some way otherwise you would have found the holy grail to beat other 50/50 games, as roulette. A game, imo, being totally unbeatable by any means.

Actually no P&D efforts could get the best of it at roulette, so I've got to deduce that your bac strategy relies on something else.

I think that for one reason or another you got the same conclusions I made. ;-)

Stay well

as.

 

[gr8player]

gr8player, I agree with many of your concepts and thanks for replying.

Nevertheless, I'm sure you have grasped that the baccarat world will provide some more likely events to happen, a thing you denied in a recent post.
Or, better sayed, that the game's outcomes are limited in some way.....

I think that for one reason or another you got the same conclusions I made. ;-)

Yes and yes.

We all play this even-chance game seeking the imbalance; seeking those times where random simply isn't appearing so, well, random.

Some play that waiting>seeking>pouncing game better than others.  Therein lies the story of this game.

Take care.

[alrelax]

As my time now permits, I'd like to further add:

Prediction, as I'm sure we can all testify, can be rather fickle.  Sometimes we might be "spot on", other times we might be rather "off".  So we come to realize this as a part of the game.  Can't be avoided. But it can (and, imo, MUST) be mitigated.  How?:

Well, first and foremost, we need consistency.  Why?  Because consistency breeds a workable and viable variance.  How?  Because, whether we like it or not, our plays must hit.  What's that you say, gr8player, they MUST hit?!  Yes, you read it right, they MUST hit.  At some point or another, your valid plays will appear.  It is, after all is said and done, only a matter of time.

OK, now that that's out of the way, let me continue:

The first thing that you need to know if you're effectively attempting to mitigate losses into any particularly-tough run is to KNOW YOUR NEMESIS.  That's right....forget for a moment what you need to win, let's focus here and now on what CAUSES YOU LOSE.  What does your losing stretch of decisions appear as?  Once you can readily identify that, you can then begin your process to mitigate it.  In other words, LOSE LESS.  Both decision- and money-wise.  Learning to curb your losses is paramount in this "turn-of--card" game....so you'd best learn to do so.

How about "no-betting"?  That's right....sitting out when your plays are nowhere to be found.  If you can effectively learn to do that, I can virtually promise you a much improved strike rate percentage and, just as importantly, a much more-intact bankroll.

You know where all this is leading, right?  Yes, you do....Patient and Disciplined play.  (I should get some sort of prize somehow, because that's got to be the millionth time that I've espoused the importance of my P & D.)

Why is it so important?:

BECAUSE THEN THE PRESSURE OF EACH DEAL, OF EACH DECISION, OF EACH "TURN-OF-THE CARDS", IS OF LESS AND LESS IMPORTANCE TO YOU.

And then you can concentrate your efforts on that which YOU ACTUALLY CAN CONTROL:

YOU.

Your game played at your pace to be bet when you please and how much.  You are now allowing the game to come to you, as opposed to you chasing the game.  Done correctly, you just might actually still BE THERE when your preferred plays do begin to pop.  And, even if not this shoe, or this table, that's OK too....because you didn't allow your "nemesis" to devour you (or your bankroll).

My friends, until you can fully grasp these concepts, I'm afraid that your biggest nemesis might actually be YOURSELF.  Don't let that happen....it is your responsibility to know exactly who it is that's risking your money.  What is it, truly, that defines you as a Baccarat player?

As always, take care and stay well.

As said in the above post: "Your game played at your pace to be bet when you please and how much.  You are now allowing the game to come to you, as opposed to you chasing the game.  Done correctly, you just might actually still BE THERE when your preferred plays do begin to pop.  And, even if not this shoe, or this table, that's OK too....because you didn't allow your "nemesis" to devour you (or your bankroll).

My friends, until you can fully grasp these concepts, I'm afraid that your biggest nemesis might actually be YOURSELF.  Don't let that happen....it is your responsibility to know exactly who it is that's risking your money.  What is it, truly, that defines you as a Baccarat player?"

Fantastic!