Thanks Tomla that is a great question.
I try to take in much of the expert discussions through many media, and at this time a lot of focus on CNBC as a channel that provides some really intelligent views, along with RT.com, BBC, CNN, Aljezira, and Sky Business (UK and Australia).
Also I have the views from my friends at M4 and also other organisations that are more private.
Before I try to answer your question here is some context. My views are personal although I have assimilated and combined views from others who I greatly respect, admire and trust.
Let me emphasise first that I am shocked and dismayed but not surprised at the 'migrant'/ 'refugee'/ exodus of people worldwide from black holes such as Syria, and other political man made disasters in Africa. This is a growing tide and is accelerated/ channeled through improved individual internet and mobile smartphone communications and overseen by improved global internet communications where many watch aghast as some politicians reveal just how out of touch and archaic are their views in the face of change. By this I refer particularly to the Hungarian PM and neighbours trying to stem a tide he does not understand. The great experiment of a Euro united without boundaries is being tested where 30 nations are being asked by France and Germany to responsibly share a collective burden of accommodating hundreds of thousands of lost souls.
And to arrive in a Europe that economically is 'compromised' by Q/E ( in other words where the elite rich are wealthier and the rest slowly decline) with limited employment prospects means 'camps' or we had better find more suitable names such as new towns or havens or safe refuges. This is not the first time there have been streams of dispossessed or homeless, but the scale is now so much greater and the expectations higher, the challenge must be seen as an opportunity to turn this around.
No longer can we make personal decisions that may not have international consequences in an increasingly wired and connected world. As a graphic example a 14 year old in UK sending a selfie to a school friend. As we say in NZ, nec minit, the Police are involved and his action goes on the public record for ten years on UK police files, and any future job interview research will be able to access his error of judgment - a bad choice. In many other cases the files are kept 100 years.
We do need to be aware of the world as it is shaping and the great change forces that are at work, and then we must think things through.
The above problems are man made. They could be a lot worse in scale.
What of the implications of a natural disaster, of illness, of famine, or of earth forces such as storms/ tides/ volcanic or seismic activity. It may only be a matter of time before we are tested in this arena.
I am not a disaster scenario doomsayer and in fact far from it but the trending of events is quite evident/ accelerating and there must be a major shift in our global attitudes to deal with these dangers/ risks/ care for one another.
Many really do care and through private initiatives are seeking fresh ways to act, gather and respond. I will give some examples in future reports. It really is heartening when you see what is going on still relatively unknown and less publicised. But for example aid agencies where there is much more efficient and effective distribution for the needy with less overhead; for medical, well being and shelter. These may need to be at the forefront of attention and action in the near future.
Do they work for profit? No, because there has to be another way of enabling such action and initiative. I cannot explain here how it can happen but it can emerge from re-distributed and re-prioritised 'profit' that emerges from the process of working with 'money'. Banks in their present form may change as it is clear to use Max Keiser's delightful expression, many are 'zombie banks' and will fall/ fail in coming years.
I believe that over the coming cycle which may be 2-3 or 7 years or even longer, there will be massive changes/ failures to our financial system and the impact may be that we eventually learn to adapt and de-centralise to smaller more effective communities, although linked as a greater community but with a sense of more responsibility and of taking care of one another and those in need. I believe if we do not adopt this approach soon, by practice and initiative, we will be forced into such by necessity and sheer extremes ahead. That scenario may be a vision 50- 100 years ahead, sooner or later. We have to have a positive vision of what we want, where we are going, and some collective enthusiasm for positive change, rather than selfish ad hoc day by day drama on drama, sleepwalking to nowhere.
So back to the present.
This week we have seen a relative calm on the markets after the shake ups of the past weeks. That everything is connected becomes clearer day by day, and the engine of the US markets is performing strongly but after 7 years of bull run has taken a correction and is pausing before the next phase. Some, noting the holiday season and low volumes are looking forward to a growth rally in October. Some are awaiting the interest rate hike/ delay by the Fed mid September. Some are stepping aside from the markets having exited the FANG stocks ( Facebook, Amazon,Netflix, Google). On a level market Netflix fell 4% today, and a collective view is that Google of course is the best of that bunch. Some are seeking small cap stocks by contrast and solar energy, some building, even Wal-Mart was recommended today as a Buy for a cyclic re-bound.
So many of the CNBC pundits warm to the comfort of a bull market, of 'normal' trading, and become stressed and anxious when out of their comfort zones. We can sympathise but does that help us? Many of the experts note the deflationary cycle and the commodity coolness, the precious metal hesitation, the currencies responding to a dominant USD trade cycle, and as with AUD/NZD a substantial slide in value through perceived worries over China reliance, low prices for iron ore and dairy, and USD dominance. They ask where do we invest for 'growth' then? Yes that is the real problem because of risk exposures.
One characteristic of futurist predictions, particularly with regard to foreign currency movements, is that they are mostly wrong.
All I can anticipate with confidence is change, and possibly challenging change, and the need to be prepared for such.
Recall, I mentioned that 'triggers' can spark slides, and it may be that the next 6 weeks or so may see such.
My personal view is to dig beneath the surface appearances of business/ market/ banking communication and try to access strong and reliable professionals who can trade under any condition and thrive. It might be helpful to find those who have been through various meltdowns and crises, and learned from those experiences.
This is where you need to conduct your own research and due diligence. I have been doing this for three years in my area of interest, and in my notes have shared my leads.
Lastly, refer to Harry Dent at Economy and Markets Daily. He has quite a reputation. He is predicting a Dow Jones level of 6000 and a major correction ahead - received his newsletter today.
Current Dow Jones level is 16,374.
Be aware of the chorus of voices and opinions. Handle a range of situations and just be prepared. For what it is worth look at football results and play the black swan events like ManU or Chelsea losing - both happened last week. Recall my references to the Economist Nassim Taleb who has called for cancellation of the Nobel Prize for Economics.