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Topic: MARKET REPORT  (Read 39766 times)

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Offline shuttle

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Re: MARKET REPORT
« Reply #60 on: January 06, 2016, 09:57:23 pm »
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  • Interesting occurrence in the world stock markets on Wednesday 6th January.  Every single major market was down with the exception of China.  My guess is this was due to Gov't interference.


    Offline XXVV

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    Re: MARKET REPORT
    « Reply #61 on: January 07, 2016, 01:00:06 am »
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  • Yes Shuttle I agree, and it is a volatile mix of 'fear' and 'greed' at present. I am glad to be standing observing at a very safe distance (I hope).

    Offline shuttle

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    Re: MARKET REPORT
    « Reply #62 on: January 07, 2016, 03:59:10 am »
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  • The Chinese stock market has been closed again because of another 7% fall.   

    Offline XXVV

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    Re: MARKET REPORT
    « Reply #63 on: January 07, 2016, 06:30:26 am »
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  • Yes Gartman in the US has advised he was wrong in October, and that the Bear Market in US stocks actually commenced last May. Interesting phase ahead but he is short selling. It appears this may be the correction we anticipated in August/ September last year, and it will be great to watch from the sidelines. As publicity and media connectivity continues to expand internationally exponentially, we may be in for a 2008 event only more so because the debt levels and leveraging are so much more intense now. Even Gold might spike. Standby.

    Offline shuttle

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    Re: MARKET REPORT
    « Reply #64 on: January 07, 2016, 06:36:33 am »
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  • I watched a video recently where Dennis Gartman stated that he was bullish on Gold and if it went above $1085 he would be a buyer.  Interesting times indeed.

    Offline XXVV

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    Re: MARKET REPORT
    « Reply #65 on: January 07, 2016, 09:41:32 pm »
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  • Mmmmm  worst 4 days start ever on the Dow.

    Give me a sign!  Oi vey ist mir !

    We were warned last September and it will be a very volatile time ahead. We have been cautioned today that the Chinese yuan might devalue 10-15% further. This is having a disproportionate impact upon business because as the Professor of Finance at Wharton, the top world business school, when interviewed on CNBC this morning said the Chinese currency over the past year is linked to the USD and the recent re-valuation for the USD up and the yuan down merely bring the Chinese currency to mid stream again. People and markets over-react. That is the emotion.

    In fact the Professor stated he believed the US market would still rise by 10% by year end - last of the Bulls.

    You can see, by commenting and observing the markets, how the Casinos actually can be relatively stable and safer places although still with fear and greed, but perhaps on a lesser scale (sometimes). Financial markets do not always go up, and Bear Markets can last 2-3-4 years.
    However you need to work with top professionals who can trade in any direction. At this time I am doing no personal trading.

    Offline XXVV

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    Re: MARKET REPORT
    « Reply #66 on: January 08, 2016, 08:34:05 pm »
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  • Several points arise today from the NY markets. Great interview with the urbane Mr Jim Stewart of The New York Times and his recent full article on the start to 2016 markets ( as with last three years - rather poor). He referred to a recent analysis by a Professor of Economics showing the dangers of ascribing significant patterns to random events( note to all roulette and baccarat players). In particular the 'meaningful' link of the first five days of January trading to reflect how the full year of 2016 will turn out. Answer : do not fall into the trap it is merely a random alignment, as out of millions of possible linkages it will always be possible to find a 'meaningful' sign or signal. So be alert and do not be naive. However keep an 'open' mind - free to search and question. **

    Second interesting observation was that the study showed there was truth however in the old adage - 'Sell in Highs, and Buy in Lows'. The biggest mistake an Investor/ Trader can make is to sell in dips/ corrections. ( That a big risk bank' is required is an implicit requirement to such wisdom.)

    Jim Stewart certainly called it correctly to say the crystal ball for the 2016 market is 'cloudy' at present.

    Yes the market fell away at close.  Who knows - there could be a bounce next week.  Buying opportunities?

    We shall see.

    ** Meaningful patterns however are to be found in the short cycle behaviour  that can be discovered in roulette, and the moving window 'frame' of context being say 20 spins prior and moving forward..... in roulette you find repeating patterns that prove/ demonstrate their validity.

    Offline XXVV

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    Re: MARKET REPORT
    « Reply #67 on: January 13, 2016, 09:07:17 pm »
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  • Tipping Point.

    Dow down -365 today and S+P breached significant 1900 level and NASDAQ down -3.5%.

    Very interesting comment from a Trader. - sure follow the trends but the big money is made in the counter-trend.

    Might be time to read about the Black Swans again.

    From study today Microsoft is a good target with possible +20% upside this year. Good for Bill Gates and the Cloud.

    One extreme view has S+P going down -75%, and RBS ( some irony here) suggesting sell sell sell. But they are outliers.

    Sad point of the day on CNBC was the West Coast Entrepreneur getting a triple NO from a panel of three Angel Investors evaluating his 60 second pitch on his aluminium ( life time guarantee) core but essentially bio-degradable designer toothbrush.

    Bad news of the week. Cheap oil is now delaying all research and development of alternative fuel sources, even 'free' fuel - what sad irony is that, and speaks of the inertia of the markets, the inertial effect of the vested interests upon change.

    Offline XXVV

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    Re: MARKET REPORT
    « Reply #68 on: January 16, 2016, 07:46:30 am »
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  • I studied New York opening and close, with the Dow Futures indicating what was to come.

    In the closing twelve minutes the UBS NY Floor Manager noted there were 2 BILLION in purchase orders. The market 'shrugged it off' ( his phrase), and remained around -390 on the Dow.

    Three day break now.

    Do we really care.

    The GOPRO CEO paid $40M USD, and ordered a new 180 ft superyacht while his ex company starts nose diving.  The shareprice has dived 80% since August and the executives sold shares prior. Reference Ronnie Moas - ace market analyst in USA.

    The EURO meet in Davos, amid luxury and prestige. The refugees in Macedonia ( not far away as the crow flies) starve, freeze and sleep in the fields or in the hedgerows, beaten and robbed by Macedonian Police. The new million dollar refugee centre down the road staffed by Medicin Sans Frontieres (MSF) has five tent occupants and unemployed medical staff. The Macedonians do not want the refugees to access such centres as they feel more will be attracted.

    How can those Finance Ministers and Politicians pretend this does not exist, and what will they propose.

    My reference is via BBC World news reports, interviews and film records. The UN has confirmed starving the needy is a war crime.

    Lets get real and look beyond the bling and take action that is planned, constructive and responsible.

    Offline XXVV

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    Re: MARKET REPORT
    « Reply #69 on: January 16, 2016, 06:47:48 pm »
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  • Davos to Macedonia

    ....approx 1100 km and 1 hour 40 mins travel time by air.

    As per the argument of Ronnie Moas, why would you support Apple, Amazon, Starbucks, Go Pro and their products when you see their commercial ethics?

    Microsoft closed $50.99 USD on Friday. I would rate that a very good buy and start building a position around that. Broker target at $65 later this year. We shall see.

    Offline XXVV

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    Re: MARKET REPORT
    « Reply #70 on: January 17, 2016, 07:20:05 pm »
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  • Where is all this heading?  A Bear Market?  Well if not now, quite soon, and it is time to consider some alternatives to conventional market mainstream approaches, ie with complacency (Bull) buying on dips. Now with fear/ anxiety over loss (Bear) the selling is coming on any rise as many seek to step aside or get out.

    Interesting to watch the Berkshire/Hathaway moves at the moment, and as earlier mentioned work in Alphabet (Google) and Microsoft is driving forward.

    Will report soon on activities with Bitcoin and opportunities with the new generation of economics.

    Offline XXVV

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    Re: MARKET REPORT
    « Reply #71 on: January 20, 2016, 09:01:58 pm »
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  • The session today on the NY markets was extremely volatile at one point early on  down 3% on the DOW and some frenzied alarmist interviews
    with wise experienced professionals were very helpful.

    Never sell on a falling market, yet in the event of MC, margin calls needs must.

    Art Cashin of UBS summed the rebound as always with inside insight, referencing 70% cause being the fall in oil prices but also referred to a sinister concern in HK about the fall in HK dollar and local derivatives, so put us on watch for the Chinese market tonight as a signpost. This is unsteady stuff, Chinese whispers.

    Also the daily drama of course can miss the bigger picture but by re-bounding to a small loss rather than a massive dump, the DOW avoided the short sell signal, at least for today. However many say a further 10% fall is most likely.

    Two commentators were most interesting, being Jack Bogle (65 years in the Markets - a delight to see/ hear him) the Founder of Vanguard who spoke for the benefit of index funds rather than managed funds with live interventions. He spoke eloquently of the three directions of trading (up, sideways, down).

    By contrast the spokesman for Hull that as an active manager utilises latest predictive analytics**to foresee the likely unfolding live. At the time of the interview 3 hours before close he was 7% short the market with his spiders and 93% cash. With the rebound I expect that position should have been liquidated or he would be in big trouble. To date this year his fund is in profit.  PA is used in new auto drive cars and in playing professional level roulette.

    At the low today the DOW was -565 and at close although rebounding earlier to -133 finished at about -240. Volatility Index very high and rebound from the lows of August last year (technical resistance levels 1860 on S+P also).

    Breaking bad beyond those technical resistance levels may results in a 10-20% further slide, all this not unexpected since August because the US market Equities are vastly over valued.

    Still rate Alphabet A at $700 USD and Microsoft at $50 USD.  Amazon and the rest of them I do not rate for ethical reasons. 

    Offline XXVV

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    Re: MARKET REPORT
    « Reply #72 on: January 22, 2016, 01:22:39 am »
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  • After the dust settled from yesterday, the Chinese markets were steady and oil even bounced up to $30 a barrel, so the US markets largely followed, at least early on, but by the end of the day ( the final hour is always a tell) and with about 20 mins to go Art Cashin of UBS often gives the buy/ sell order balance ahead. Recent volumes have been very high so it is serious, and the 10%-20% fall since start of trading this year signal bear territory approaching. Definition of a Bear Market is greater than 20% falls. Also in the Bear condition the market sells on the short cycle peaks, and so often by end of the day the apparent pop back falls flat.

    So today it was a feeble +110 point on the Dow with the S+P still at the critical bench level 1860. Next one down is 1740.

    The interviews from the luxury at Davos were continuous, never ending, and ultimately all talk. I was conscious of the poor freezing souls trudging west a few hundred kilometres away - heavy snow and very cold in central Europe. It was amusing to see and hear the infamous Jamie Dimon of JP Morgan with soothing comments. How many hundred millions for him this year, and his staff, while extraordinarily the share price never complains.

    Basking in reflected snowy glory was the female chief of one top Indian Bank gloating over the growth and prospects of India's industry ( compared to China) and no problem with coal and iron ore. Pollution will catch up with them also within 10 years, or sooner.

    Trying to interpret the US markets there are several narratives.

    A.  US economy is sound but because of strong US dollar the manufacturing ( except cars) is in recession. Consumer confidence with caveat that most are aware the wealth 'distribution' is increasingly skewed and needs fixing. The US dream though is alive and well.

    B.  Currency fears and a move back to asset backed currencies may follow. You may be surprised to hear Iran is one of the strongest- sanctions have just been lifted so their support of terrorism ( just like Saudi) is factored into the current Middle East matrix. Trade sure beats war, but sadly the two seem to thrive together in the current capitalist ( no morality) system. This will change ahead.

    C. That correction. It may still happen 20-30% or more to the Dow. Most acknowledge this but do not really like to talk about it.

    D. Financial Collapse. Yes possible and may even be useful if likely changes are to enabled more quickly. The Global Currency ReSet is a sub text with some spooky views worldwide. Nevertheless it is a fact that the Kuwait Dinar at the time of the Iraqi invasion was over $3.50 USD. This was devalued to 0.05 cents USD during the 6-9 months of the war, and hundreds of millions of KD were 'acquired' by US interests, then re-sold and used for Clinton Surplus ( and other things) at $3.40 USD soon after. Operational Leverage.

    There is a growing library of comment, hysteria, fact and fiction on option D.  It is probably shrewd management to cover all options.

    As an aside the recent abrupt  'announcement' of the huge ninth planet is a trifle odd do you not think. There is narrative that this data ( and its flight path) was held back and a research astronomer died in mysterious circumstances a few years ago although had all the material ready for release. So here we go twilight meets daylight and I seriously advise that over the next couple of years there will be a stream of releases which will rock the complacent, because sometimes social change on the scale required may require extreme events. This is not through fiction or fantasy or zealot biblical interpretation, but actually the workings of economics which after all, and despite their best efforts to prove otherwise, the acolytes of Economics concede that real life ( totality) is a part of their work, and that all is inter-connected.

    Friday's US market will be fascinating.

    Petrobas is offering a 100 year bond and is paying 11% annually from today onwards. It is currently discounted to $0.56 USD and falling. That is the state of Brazil. As they say ( and will keep on saying) 'It has a great future.'

    Offline XXVV

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    Re: MARKET REPORT
    « Reply #73 on: January 22, 2016, 03:53:46 am »
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  • The above scenarios are not necessary independent. They may overlap and even engulf one another. I think it is useful to observe parallel narratives in many areas - business and roulette.

    Since we are talking parallels I recommend Tracy Alloway and her Blog Random Musings at Bloomberg and ex FT. She has written on the problems with the Petrobas Bond which could provide 11% annually for life for you and your estate. That is if they survive - they are backed by the Brazil government.

    Offline XXVV

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    Re: MARKET REPORT
    « Reply #74 on: January 22, 2016, 10:26:58 pm »
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  • We await the results action next week with Apple reporting on Tuesday. I sense major unease below the surface and anything could happen with the caveats I have expressed over currency concerns. Yes I reinforce the statements made earlier this week that Alphabet A is a prime stock as they continue to take over the world. AMEX is getting hammered in sharp contrast to VISA and Mastercard. BOX is a great and focused SF cloud entity and cheap at $10.  Interesting how one Trader talked of the need / use he has for 'patterns', like four days down and one day up and that repeating cycle - he was referring to Oil. By definition pattern = repeating cycle enabling recognition of short cycle trend. In the markets the technical analysis and resistance points can indicate medium and long term trends, and signals for switch from SAME to CHANGE.