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Topic: MARKET REPORT  (Read 39767 times)

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Offline XXVV

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Re: MARKET REPORT
« Reply #75 on: January 29, 2016, 03:13:24 am »
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  • Here is a mid week update.

    There is little so say other than that extreme caution is necessary. The emotional nature of the market  results in over -reaction. Before Facebook released Q results the shares fell to $92. The clever management on board - most of the key names end in..berg ( this is a joke please no offence intended) exceeded all expectations and this outfit benefits supremely from the increasing use of mobile for all communications and the desk is going backwards. Shares today touched $112 or more at one stage up 20% on the day. A Coup. And also a Pop as they call it .

    Meanwhile Amazon got hammered and fell over $60 USD at one stage because of headwinds.

    My advocacy of Alphabet and Microsoft is in very firm ground.

    Do not be fooled by the current tide turn in oil - the test is $35 a barrel, and expert advice is that new lows will be tested to $25 or less in coming months.  Iran comes on line next week and over supply continues. This has resulted in the price of vegetables ( 80% imported) in Canada - Cauliflowers sell for between $6 to $8 ( in NZ here and in season they are NZD $2.50 to $4.50. Where I live up in appropriately named Bay of Plenty they are cheaper still.
    I am very surprised some entrepreneurial Canadian has not utilise permaculture/ hydroculture to produce city located ex warehouse/ rooftop gardens of abundance, or are they giving priority to medicinal marijuana. 

    My own time feels as fragmented as this market. It makes me uneasy to monitor at the moment.


    Offline XXVV

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    Re: MARKET REPORT
    « Reply #76 on: January 29, 2016, 08:04:37 am »
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  • Brilliant Interview with Marc Faber from Switzerland - publisher of the Doom, Boom and Gloom Report. What a breath of fresh air and his overview on world economics.
    Amazon has taken a massive hit ( over reaction) dowm $85 USD  (-15% in after close trades).

    Interview with Jeff Bezos on  CNBC.
    The European part of the CNBC show  ( while USA sleeps) is superb.

    Deflation is coming; Government spending is growing; only crumbs fall to the floor for most.

    The entire system will change in years ahead because this present model will fail.
    That is why I delight in the asset based currencies and a future re-valuation.

    Offline XXVV

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    Re: MARKET REPORT
    « Reply #77 on: January 29, 2016, 09:26:47 pm »
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  • Dancing With the Bears
    Yes that was Davos.

    It further illustrated how out of touch are politicians and business leaders with the people.
    Already I mentioned the sleep walking female Indian Bank CEO - oblivious to concerns over pollution, climate change and consequences beyond profit.
    As I stated to host such an event in such ostentatious fur coat luxury when millions are approaching Europe seeking a new home, and are literally starving and freezing in fields within Europe- the stuff of war crimes and gross mis-management.

    The political solution - send a Syrian Ambassador to a UN Peace Conference - who will attend - 1000 fragmented opposition groups.

    I have rather lost the appetite to watch much more of the theatre of US Markets - the value systems are all profit driven, and the few gems where biotechnical, medicinal applications can assist development of anti-mosquito are presented, always follow with, when will the profit follow.

    My increasing belief is that unless we choose to change ( and who will initiate that?) change will be forced upon us by extreme adversity - I can see it coming.

    So have a look at Marc Faber. I like him particularly because he has a wicked sense of humour, and his views and knowledge are wide and intelligent.

    www.marcfabernews.com

    Offline XXVV

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    Re: MARKET REPORT
    « Reply #78 on: February 03, 2016, 04:58:24 am »
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  • Thin Ice

    Yahoo - no !    Boo-Hoo - yes !!  Sell on any temporary small recovery.

    Well you can watch 'how to play this' on Squawk Box tonight, but I would sell sell sell. Also dump Twitter - story of missed opportunities.

    AOL by comparison thanks to brilliant and personable CEO is blooming along with Verizon.

    Warnings now of Banking Stocks that may crash - warning over RBS, Deutsche Bank, because of negative interest rates. The signs are not good and this one crisis, involving several Euro banks including Santander, has crept up quickly.

    One professional considers Oil could touch teens per barrel.

    Gold appears to have breached a limit, stabilised and may go $1150-$1200 USD per ounce. Up +5% this year and may now go higher.

    Offline Tomla

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    Re: MARKET REPORT
    « Reply #79 on: February 03, 2016, 10:30:23 pm »
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  • In the states here ,,, Last week  japan goes negative the market goes up here--makes no sense. Oil is down should be good for biz  yet market goes down here.... nothing makes sense anymore..
    Feds have put feelers out to USA banks about going negative in the future....This is one wild roller coaster going on....Hard to explain where individual markets are going but the banks should take a big hit soon

    Offline XXVV

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    Re: MARKET REPORT
    « Reply #80 on: February 08, 2016, 09:24:12 pm »
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  • Greetings - long weekends in this location but tuned into NY from 3.30am local this morning at opening on the Dow and the futures looked ominous but the European Markets were sliding 5% or more. Sure enough the Dow fell as low as -401 points but regained half to close about -175 on the Bell at 10am local NZ time.

    Yes the European banks took a hammering with DB leading the way closely followed by Credit Suisse.

    Highlights of the morning was a live interview with Trump on his policies to more strongly negotiate with China over its continuing devaluations comparative to USD and also Japan in relation to undermining for example US Manufacturers ( example Caterpillar), hence the talk of a 45% 'tax'. Well not as simple as that of course but you see the intent, and you see the impact on US families when major US companies tax flee to Ireland for example, scrapping thousands in labour force locally ( eg Pfizer).

    Big impact of the morning though was the brilliant and charming Norwegian CEO of Nordic American Line ( tankers). During his 12 min interview the share prize actually rose +4%. This is a gem stock and brilliantly managed with max debt on each tanker of about 5-6M USD while scrap value is about 12M USD.  He spoke of keeping debt low in personal, home and business life. How true is that. Mind you there is good debt and bad debt but that is another level and another story. Share price of NAL closed at from earlier $10.25 to  $11.97 up +6.4%.

    Big volumes and obviously until late in the day not many buyers, and Volatility Index at a steady ( not  panic) 26%. By the 20% off high definition of a Bear Market, Europe well qualifies, and in most areas the US Market also qualifies. heading one direction, and yes, as earlier suggested Gold did did reach/ recover mid year highs of $1195 USD - up 10% off the signal a few days ago.

    Offline XXVV

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    Re: MARKET REPORT
    « Reply #81 on: February 09, 2016, 06:01:24 am »
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  • Update on Gold Research.
    Next target $1225 USD, then up to $1500 USD.
    Best leverage in Gold Equities which since the 2007/8 debacle had fallen 90%. The surviving companies are lean and mean now, and probably 2 years ahead of the current wave of Energy Equities necessary re-structuring.
    Gold has risen +12% since year beginning and today up +3% - best single day since 2011.
    Rationale is that with increasing spread of negative interest Gold makes sense in  in an increasingly emotional and volatile market.

    Offline XXVV

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    Re: MARKET REPORT
    « Reply #82 on: February 09, 2016, 09:25:13 pm »
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  • Opened on Futures negative and fell to -140 on the Dow but rebounded to small loss at close. Waiting for the Fed interviews later. Banks appear to be the new Oil, at least the Euro banks. The provincial US banks have been over-sold and a good strategy will be to accumulate the best of these ( avoid oil exposure). Zion is a standout regional bank.

    The expert advice on Oil is extended over supply and falling demand. In fact production increases show how desperate are some dependent Oil producing states like Venezuela and Russia.

    The inertia to explore alternative and improved energy sources is astonishing and alarming.

    Exxon is the best of the US producers, but even the pipeline stocks are in trouble. We may see a wave of US bankruptcies in the next 3 months in these areas and Texas is hard hit.

    Best performing Equity of 2016... Newmont Mining.

    View Gold as a trading platform, not necessarily a long hold. But both strategies would be wise, with say Gold (physical) as 5%-10% of the Vault.


    Offline NathanDetroit

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    Re: MARKET REPORT
    « Reply #83 on: February 09, 2016, 09:57:54 pm »
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  • XxVV


    Thanks for your  market reports. Not to be missed by any investor. Right on target.


    Nathan Detroit.

    Offline XXVV

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    Re: MARKET REPORT
    « Reply #84 on: February 10, 2016, 12:26:52 am »
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  • Thanks ND - much appreciated. This is a long game and really at times like this, so much is 'waiting'. Last night I was watching the series 'Billions' and the 'short squeeze' was in evidence as well as the tiring production payoffs to Heineken and Bloomberg. There are a few hair raising plays going on at the moment, and an interview was conducted 'why are US CEOs so unhappy'. They are paid lots but look at the behaviour of some - like the guy who runs Square and Twitter , basically he half manages Twitter- and guess what since his effort commenced the share price has halved.
    A few reality checks, and ego reviews are needed. Read the psychological profiles of some CEO's and you may be surprised.

    However again full marks to the brilliant new #2 ( grooming for #1 role soon) at Coca-Cola,- his performance was so calm, cool, and positive. He is another UK import. Coca -Cola is doing really well. Like McDonalds.

    My own situation is waiting, waiting. No one can ever pick a bottom, but a great strategy is to buy on market falls on those units that are clearly good value and have great futures.

    The market is unloading the bubble of over-valuation, and it is a useful Bear Market strategy to sell on frequent up spikes, and buy on loss days.
    Any Reverse Psychology that runs counter intuitively is challenging, but there are great opportunities starting to emerge.


    Offline XXVV

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    Re: MARKET REPORT
    « Reply #85 on: February 10, 2016, 08:03:24 pm »
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  • Observed a lot of Fed Chairperson Yellen's questioning from Congress. On several occasions I was surprised and disappointed by lack of courtesy and respect from Congress men and women, mainly men, talking over her, and not allowing her to finish answering questions. I guess it was politics- a lot of rhetoric from the Congress in time modules allowing her very limited time, often far too limited, to answer important questions. In some cases asking questions which could not be answered. It seemed clumsy to me.

    Expert reading on consequences of all this seems that market reads a desire to, but no change to interest rates, as the prospect of a stronger USD would be counter productive to US manufacture. This has caused a pause in falls and corrections but I think it likely over coming weeks and months there are further falls/ clearing to come.

    S+P next critical resistance line is 1814, and a few months later 1740 which experts believe may well be tested.

    As mentioned, the bottom or turning point is unknown, but to selectively accumulate is a good strategy while the market is trending down, based on 3-5 year hold model.

    By end of year I hope to be able to comment on more direct personal active trading examples, but am still in waiting mode.

    Offline Tomla

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    Re: MARKET REPORT
    « Reply #86 on: February 10, 2016, 08:09:29 pm »
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  • what co's have great 10 year futures is the question--many variables out there... mcdonalds picking up w all day breakfast but that's hurting Dunkin  donuts --its comical in away ---in the long run china will do well, if  you can wait out the chinese crash-billions of consumers. same w India and others. If oil went  to 20 a barrel it would also be a great futures  play--Every purchase now makes your stomach roll....good market for  gamblers with big kahoonies....the volatility is amazing :end result every week or so the mkt is down 1%
    the question is when is the bottom

    Offline XXVV

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    Re: MARKET REPORT
    « Reply #87 on: February 10, 2016, 08:26:19 pm »
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  • Yes. Have a look at the  5 year S+P chart and the resistance lines testing corrections. I sense that a further 20% shakeout in US equities will follow in next 2-3 months. I spend most of time at present researching and reading background technical works illustrating what is going on behind the scenes in this theatre of dreams.

    If it breaks below 1840 watch out - the last hour of trading was very telling today.

    Offline XXVV

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    Re: MARKET REPORT
    « Reply #88 on: February 11, 2016, 07:08:00 pm »
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  • It has been such an important day I have been live on the US markets all session, and at this time, about 2 hours to go the Dow is -330 for the day and the S+P has directly tested the 1812 level. Gold has a breakout over $1230 USD, and next target level will be $1320 plus over next 2-3 months and that the present level be sustained for 2 weeks.

    I have seen interviewed Mark Cuban, the retired ex CEO of Shell USA, COO of Twitter,CEO of drug company Mylan, and the entire Banking Senate Committee interviewing Janet Yellen.

    I sense these are historic times.

    S+P has lost 2 Trillion USD in market capitalisation since beginning of this year.

    Offline Tomla

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    Re: MARKET REPORT
    « Reply #89 on: February 11, 2016, 07:58:37 pm »
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  • yeah it does feel like something more than major is happening. Insurance co's getting banged today today along w most other stuff---- Im a bit surprised by the Gold storm as I pictured that heading below 1000---western world shakeout