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Offline XXVV

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Re: Swiss Dreams
« Reply #60 on: December 31, 2015, 10:32:47 pm »
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  • The search for a true CWB may of course require much more than just a glib remark from an entity whose credentials are shadowy to say the least, but as is the case with CEH/ Simon/ Tasha/ Shikamaru, they (he/she) provide clues as a series of quite logical steps, or as counter-intuitive steps. It seems a 3 step procedure is a key with solutions adapting to runs/ changes  which is the 'same'/ 'change/different' that I often refer to in analysis of context of roulette spins.

    Fundamentally we all love a Quest - it's a bit like the origins of story telling - narratives are at the root of our creativity, and our curiosity. It is a sign of intelligence.

    So, with that caveat we will commence a search this year for various CWB forms, and within reason will share the story as it unfolds. For those that wish to climb on board this magical mystery tour there will be privileges.


    Offline shuttle

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    Re: Swiss Dreams
    « Reply #61 on: December 31, 2015, 10:45:05 pm »
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  • So, with that caveat we will commence a search this year for various CWB forms, and within reason will share the story as it unfolds. For those that wish to climb on board this magical mystery tour there will be privileges.

    I am very interested in the CWB concept and look forward to climbing on board,

    Offline XXVV

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    Re: Swiss Dreams
    « Reply #62 on: January 01, 2016, 02:28:32 am »
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  • Life can be strange. 5 years ago I was one of several who attempted to join the PPPC. Yet even at that time I had access to my own private bet but had not yet fully realised that it was capable of flat staking profit, and I believe in current analysis it has an edge of some +20% ( ranging from 0 to+50% in short sequences spread over 2-3 sets at least )- variance is mitigated with additional sets yet the ecart still seems to move like a tide either resisting or assisting change. Change is the real driver of my method and it relates to inside table bets and has NOTHING to do with outside table bets EC's or D+C, in contrast to the supposed bet from CEH.

    It was the application of flat staking that convinced me, especially after the slap in the face from HSBC.

    Nothing like emotion to motivate.

    So for years I was simply furious with the scammers and failed to take seriously that someone would not only have a winning bet, but would also be so bitter and twisted that he would cheat thousands, unless trying to make a particular point. The individual monetary loss was not that bad, but it was the cynical misuse of some idealism which caught so many of us. However, there is also a lesson there. Get over it.

    Just because a cynic misuses fine ideas, need not pollute those ideas. We just need to wake up, be sharper be more alert, and get real.

    I know property developers who literally stole hundreds of thousands of dollars from greedy but naive victims. Those sociopaths now rationalise the crime by claiming 'it was their choice' when referring to the transfer of family assets to a crook. It amazes me that jail was not the end result for these scammers, but merely a slap on the wrist in a civil legal action.

    So the W3M scam was a lesson. And also that it could indeed be possible for CEH to have a real bet never occurred to me for 5 years - I was blinded by stupidity, falling into the old trap of imaging behaviour only in the terms of my own morality, not that of another.

    So it has come shining to me, especially when I read the works of CS1968, and now of Razor - refer to the Members section a history of the posts of the author - all 86 of them. Indeed perhaps there is something to this in elegant 3 step form as I had earlier dimly observed. I had never even been aware of the Razor posts in full - too busy with my own stuff.

    Offline XXVV

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    Re: Swiss Dreams
    « Reply #63 on: January 01, 2016, 03:51:36 am »
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  • Important point I want to make here is that I have seen, have proven, that there are various valid approaches to a winning bet in roulette. It is such a fabulous game in its multiplicity, richness and layers. Okay it looks like there is a CWB as CEH described, and as affirmed by Razor, but note they both indicated the level of work, passion and determination required to succeed.

    You can read in Razor's posts the returns he obtained eventually once he added some key insights. I am not going to list them here but the way I work, and it is derived from my professional life, is that I constantly take notes, whether live in a meeting with others, or on the phone, I always transcribe. This has helped me in several legal cases, and my clients also. So I made 3 xa4 pages of notes from the Razor replies/posts, and these will be studied later. Also several pages will be re-read multiple times.

    It is a 'pattern of thought' that needs to be ingrained, and cannot be taught. It comes only through work, and a passion for detail accuracy.

    Lazy minds, lazy attitudes will fail.

    In fact I am amazed reading and compressing that material, just what amount has been shared by Razor. Overlay all the copied data I have from W3M, the Shikamaru posts, Tasha, Simon, and you have a splendid world of opportunity. The lights go on when you realize this can be, and most probably is true.

    My message here though is to say there are many winning bets available in roulette.

    As I have said many times before, I and several of my colleagues agree, the hardest step is to master your own performance when given access to a powerful bet. Cool professionalism is essential, and the various bet characteristics will also shape your performance.

    My current view, based on my experience, is that a powerful winning bet used at the right time and in suitable conditions, should be played with high value units in as short a session as possible so that a suitable pre-planned goal can result, then step outside, as ND has so wisely advised.

    Offline XXVV

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    Re: Swiss Dreams
    « Reply #64 on: January 01, 2016, 09:39:05 am »
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  • Reading the 86 posts from Razor, I can glimpse and only speculate on the focus and work that must have gone into his work to find a CWB, and if indeed it was as CEH described, even the same bet. This would be an elegant bet indeed with only a small RB required and with the definition of stability as per the returns over 30 sessions of 100 spins. It is admirable work, and truly remarkable that important details have been shared in his posts on a roulette forum, although directed to a small percentage who might first be prepared to accept the possibility of such a bet, and then who might be prepared to enter into long and exhausting research on this Quest.

    Offline Nickmsi

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    Re: Swiss Dreams
    « Reply #65 on: January 01, 2016, 02:29:03 pm »
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  • Hello XXVV and all,

    Just like Gizmotron, I follow the forums to keep the mind sharp and open to new ideas.
     
    You mentioned in one of your post some work I had done earlier on Alternating ECs.  I lost most of that work due to computer crashes and upgrades however, I do recall that the work was incorrect and ultimately inconclusive but the idea of the Pigeon Hole Principle still applies.

    This then sparked another idea I am now testing about The Pigeon Hole Theory and Dyksexlic's postings concerning the fact that on a 37 numbered wheel, that if you have 37 Unique numbers spun, then on the 38th spin you will have all the Pigeon Holes filled guaranteeing a Repeat.

    I will be happy to review any of my previous studies on CEH and update them with current simulations from the new excel bot that Victor is currently upgrading.

    Cheers and keep up the good work.

    Nick

    Offline Carlitos

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    Re: Swiss Dreams
    « Reply #66 on: January 01, 2016, 06:04:29 pm »
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  • ....just was searching Google and it got me to this site -, https://www.safaribooksonline.com/library/view/head-first-statistics/9780596527587/ch04.html



    Carlitos  8)



    Offline XXVV

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    Re: Swiss Dreams
    « Reply #67 on: January 01, 2016, 06:23:21 pm »
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  • Hello XXVV and all,

    Just like Gizmotron, I follow the forums to keep the mind sharp and open to new ideas.
     
    You mentioned in one of your post some work I had done earlier on Alternating ECs.  I lost most of that work due to computer crashes and upgrades however, I do recall that the work was incorrect and ultimately inconclusive but the idea of the Pigeon Hole Principle still applies.

    This then sparked another idea I am now testing about The Pigeon Hole Theory and Dyksexlic's postings concerning the fact that on a 37 numbered wheel, that if you have 37 Unique numbers spun, then on the 38th spin you will have all the Pigeon Holes filled guaranteeing a Repeat.

    I will be happy to review any of my previous studies on CEH and update them with current simulations from the new excel bot that Victor is currently upgrading.

    Cheers and keep up the good work.

    Nick

    Hello Nickmsi

    This is wonderful help thank you, and really in the spirit of the best intentions of the Forum.
    Will be in touch on a couple of matters in due course.
    R.
    xxvv

    Offline XXVV

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    Re: Swiss Dreams
    « Reply #68 on: January 01, 2016, 06:28:23 pm »
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  • ....just was searching Google and it got me to this site -, https://www.safaribooksonline.com/library/view/head-first-statistics/9780596527587/ch04.html

    Carlitos  8)

    Thanks Carlitos. That is a comprehensive source and very accessible. Thank you for sharing this. You may not realize how valued your first response to my idea for the Swiss Dreams thread actually was. It was pivotal actually, a sort of tipping point, and indirectly through this I have shifted some of my views 180 degrees in recent days. So once again, thank you for your contributions.

    Offline Carlitos

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    Re: Swiss Dreams
    « Reply #69 on: January 01, 2016, 07:34:19 pm »
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  • ...nice to see that i could be of help to you too  :)




    Carlitos  8)

    Offline XXVV

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    Re: Swiss Dreams
    « Reply #70 on: January 02, 2016, 06:33:08 pm »
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  • ...nice to see that i could be of help to you too  :)


    Carlitos  8)

    Going into the study of CWB in the context of the Swiss Dreams, I am reminded of the words of CEH, also echoed by Razor, that it is not with mathematics or the study of odds that you will beat the game of roulette, despite how 'real' you consider that mathematics is. It requires instead a belief, a mental thought pattern, that enables insight through extended, almost obsessive observation.

    5 years ago, studying the 'pigeon-hole' theory of CS1968, and then later the applications of 6thsense using penultimate pattern analysis, and various theories of the time, I did test several ideas on 100 spin samples, and in a few cases to 30 sessions.

    The results were inconclusive. Sometimes they worked, sometimes not, and it showed a couple of realisations. One was that these were not CWB quality and did not enable 'stable' results to the standards as outlined by CEH. Also the short cycle nature of roulette was shown, just as Arvis had shown me, when he wrote after the fiasco of the scam.

    When you look back over the years, and more so, the early years of the writings of CEH, the volume, the raving, the personal attacks and interactions on the various forums, were muddied and very unpleasant. Who would want to go through that all over again. And it seems that Razor did his own work under great pressure, with very little guidance, in order to finally access what he believed was possible.

    If it were CEH alone, the whole caravan would be enough to discourage me. But through the writings of Razor, I sense more serious knowledge and application, yet of course even then wrapped in a personality that at times is opaque.

    As earlier mentioned I have had the fortune to have at least two mentors in roulette, and those at a high level of professionalism and experience. That was a fantastic foundation for me. Nevertheless it took me a further ten years at least to see that one source had brilliance but no edge, and that the other had a different brilliance but with a hidden edge not comprehended or revealed fully. I found that by hard work, obsessive hours of study, and simply, flat staking, so that I now evaluate my own private bet as having an average +20% edge.

    It uses cluster analysis, but at an elemental level of context, and at detail invisible to the mathematical posse that writes on Roulette30.  It stands outside of their concrete criteria because in my game prior spins DO influence subsequent outcomes, and I could now never see it unfold in any other way. I have commented on this earlier saying spin outcomes are BOTH independent, and dependent. It depends what window you are looking through, ie what sets chosen to follow or through which to interpret the messages put out in the natural flow of roulette spin outcomes.

    To my shock I see that CEH also refers to his 'cluster analysis' and yes it does involve very short cycle context in his work with EC's and DC's. It is a very different form of cluster analysis from mine.

    Yet both require a different way of seeing the game, and this is the 'thought pattern' which he refers to.

    I am prepared to change my mind, shift my views sometimes, as the result of fresh evidence, and I believe a CWB in the elegant form that CEH outlined ( but sometimes in not very elegant writing- but sometimes very condensed and brilliant writing - love the inconsistencies of human personalities and individualities). Like wise Razor. I believe he found a bet. Also such as Arvis who had such knowledge - I think he was independent of CEH and Simon ( but he also may have one and the same amongst the smoke and mirrors of the time).

    The practice and ethical continuance of writing about a method, a professional bet, and providing hints, examples and results, is problematic.

    From having seen several demonstrations from colleagues, and seeing my own results, partial success, and total success in some areas, I believe totally that several winning bets can be developed and that efficiency of those bets can be continually refined. The CWB that CEH refers to and Razor refers to appears to be a very compact and powerful tool.

    Perhaps the owners wanted to share some of their knowledge for various reasons, some selfish but maybe some for greater good. Mixed signals alright, and offering a very very very complex path to an outstanding discovery that provides a level of freedom. ie financial freedom, to the owner. Fear of the loss of such freedom by a change in the rules of roulette may also be a concern if public knowledge and application of a particular bet method were made available. So maybe it is a very skewed and difficult balance but certainly the erratic and foggy communications with these brilliant minds - for they are brilliant although with issues-if the communication can be built on consistent logic and a structure assembled with the mists removed by near obsessive testing with a reasoned belief that the journey has a destination, then it is all worthwhile. But it will never be made public and easily accessible for that will defeat the whole purpose.

    So, as we started, mathematics and study of odds, is really immaterial and needs to be set aside. You cannot beat the odds or change the odds. But you can beat the game by going inside, or taking another pathway to observe, as I have done with set cluster analysis.


    Offline Gizmotron

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    Re: Swiss Dreams
    « Reply #71 on: January 02, 2016, 07:36:31 pm »
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  • ...
    So, as we started, mathematics and study of odds, is really immaterial and needs to be set aside. You cannot beat the odds or change the odds. But you can beat the game by going inside, or taking another pathway to observe, as I have done with set cluster analysis.

    I know where you are headed and also basically know what you will find and conclude once you see it. There is only one conclusion that is discoverable. You can then easily attach that conclusion to the understanding of any useful CWB.  There are three states of effectiveness. I am waiting for your conclusion though, because I would bet that you probably relate to the effectiveness state in other terms and concepts than I have, especially in how you explain your way of relating to your conclusion. Perhaps there is a language of terms already used in the field of cluster analysis, a kind of construct language or jargon. This is as far as I dare go with this though. I have never divulged the secrets of my actual short termed bet selections, guesses that are based on these three states, states that I can't avoid seeing. Once you see them, you can't go back to not seeing them. I have documented that much at this very website and only at this website.

    Ref: one of my first posts at this forum; http://betselection.cc/gambling-philosophy/bet-selection-theory/

    -------------------
    So I can't wait to see what you come up with.
    "...IT'S AGAINST THE LAW TO BREAK THE LAW OF AVERAGES." 

    Offline XXVV

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    Re: Swiss Dreams
    « Reply #72 on: January 03, 2016, 01:05:28 am »
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  • Recall also ( we have to hold so many thoughts in mind simultaneously while researching and developing ideas, or forensically examining, re-tracing the steps of others) the words of Simon. In CSI - various locations - it is always the villain whose steps we are investigating. But in this case the thought patterns of a genius. Who else could devise a CWB than a genius. I note CEH uses the term 'by default' in access to his major breakthrough. Same with me. My progress came by default with the genius being the late great Mark Sarris. Maybe they were always 'there' merely waiting to be picked like hanging fruit. However someone had to have that vision, that could identify a possibility, and that is attuning to a thought pattern, or vibration, at a high octave, beyond most people's hearing. I look back and wonder, and am amazed and grateful now. All those connections.

    Simon stated that a key principle in determining the worth of a bet is to establish why the bet works.

    In my case with the context clustering analysis linking past, present and future outcomes in short cycles, the bet works, makes a difference, has an edge, because there is an inherent energy to cluster and an energy to de-connect or uncouple, and by analysis if the bell curve of distribution of the time scales involved it is possible to determine where and when is the most effective and efficient point at which to predict change, or take advantage of same. Flat staking is a major help and that combined with a decay curve that coincides with the best bet in flat staking gives a great outcome, an ideal outcome from which there are lesser and lesser degrees of outcome flowing forth. Thus it is sensible to stop at key times, sometimes counter-intuitively for best results.

    The edge comes from access to that latent energy, to trap some of it to use the CEH expression. In my words to score a hit, a coup, multiple hits and take the profit in a timely fashion, before the ecart tide sweeps some away. However the ecart alone will not sink this ship because we have the edge, a sort of safe distance above the water line, a sort of plimsoll line that guarantees to keep us afloat. With an edge only human folly can still scuttle the good ship.

    In one sentence you torpedo the classic mathematicians with badges who insist, in fact prosecute on independence of spin outcomes and the absurd irrelevance of context, and the willful hopelessness of stop loss in the face of inevitable loss, or worse, triggers, in a game with a house edge of -2.7% at least. Their view of roulette is like a shabby seaside ghost train ride for which you pay a fee to be a loser. This is the view that casinos would have you believe, to pay for your entertainment experience.

    Offline XXVV

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    Re: Swiss Dreams
    « Reply #73 on: January 03, 2016, 02:41:16 am »
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  • Let's add a little more to this thought of why a bet should work, and the transfer of energy that occurs in the process of using a winning bet with a proven edge to make a consistent profit, or trading range of profit which is how I would personally put it.

    The formal mathematicians who seem to infest certain roulette forums, the do-gooders who seek out truth or what they perceive as truth, and who try to save with missionary zeal those of us who stray from the pre-determined fatalistic path of loss expectation, have no idea at all of the dimension we are entering when we change our thought pattern from loss expectation and determinism, to an alternate path, such as expectation of  abundant options.

    The abundant option theory which I have just coined is a derivative of 'abundance' which is a state of mind/ thought pattern associated with the economics of happiness, and a freer more de-centralised economic system such as that enabled by recent developments with the block chain, and expectations of prosperity as opposed to lack, which is the current economic model that divides increasingly ruthlessly the extreme rich from the poor. The middle ground is being eroded in like manner to rising sea levels eroding the coastline.

    Abundant Options, AO as I now going to term it ( resonates with Todd-AO) is an attitude, a state of mind that sees unlimited upside everywhere. In Auckland we have a real estate company called Unlimited Potential, or UP. I have always rather admired this handle and it sure beats 'down'. Well the housing market in that city, like many a western city knows only upside. Not an Uptown Girl, but an Upside Girl - maybe not.

    The point I am driving at is that by changing the thought patterns/ images/ focus/ attitude/ emotional lock, then you can change your world, and this little exercise in CWB is a minor expression of this major Life Principle. Seems to me this widened view of possibilities can challenge and change everything, within reason.

    So when I refer to the 'latent energy' locked in a form, using roulette as this example with a 'fixed' cluster, this is a very short cycle lasting 3-7 spins usually, and after that time the energy will be released and the form dispersed. However there is a force seeking by nature to re-shape, re-gather the elements again immediately after. So there is energy to destroy and energy to form or shape, and they are the polarities of one force, just another example of the polarities in the world of form. Positive and negative aspects of the same principle if you like.

    So where does the 'profit' emerge from all of this in such a controlled closed system as a casino game with known fixed variables ( vastly different in scale of knowability to the financial world markets).

    My theory is that the energy release when you go cluster scale/ short cycle scale enables an opportunity when you work with the energy flow, as opposed to working against it ( the ecart). By working at this scale the player can tap a latent (usually hidden) energy and emerge from a suitable session cycle in net profit, and with skill, knowledge and know-how, lots of practice and with good timing, can engage and earn consistent profit at a rate and scale appropriate to the bet or type of bet. By working with, understanding the process at work in clustering formation, dance movements of the patterns, the synchronicity can enable consistent profit, as opposed to consistent loss which is the image presented to, and experienced by, most roulette players.

    If the bet reason cannot be explained, it cannot be understood, and therefore will not be controlled, even if glimpsed occasionally.

    All the work needs to go into finding natural flow patterns in the terms of the world set up by the casinos for roulette.

    Working within those terms, but seeing beyond the apparent control limitations, thinking outside of the square, there you have it, freedom.

    Offline Gizmotron

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    Re: Swiss Dreams
    « Reply #74 on: January 03, 2016, 06:01:09 am »
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  •  
    Quote
    very short cycle lasting 3-7 spins usually

    This holds a lot of value with me. My focus for years has been on the longer cycles and finding the longer streaks in them. Things like sleepers that last from 8 to 15 spins, and the very rare sequences that streak for 30 spins. It is only in these past few months that I have been focusing on the short term trends. This was Spike's area of expertise in the EC bets. At least he admitted that much. I decided a few months ago to explore the ground that I was ignoring. There really is something there that holds up well.

    When you track 4 sets of three unique dozens (12 dozens) and the six EC table bets there is almost always activity in the 3 - 7 range of that short term data. My latest version of practice software allows me to make any collision bet between any dozen set and another as well as any dozen and EC or between EC and other EC choices and automatically adjusts the bet amounts risked for that spin. It kicks out win loss telemetry for each bet placed. It also includes my visual dexterity system so I can track any duration of trend characteristic. That frees me to contemplate rapid trend following changes and to consider length of short term opportunism.

    I'm just learning how to relate to small duration opportunities. Currently my experiments involve three net wins per session with seven short sessions per trip, for a hoped perfect 21 net wins per trip to a casino. I have telemetry for 11 trips, at $1 per chip @ 1 chip per number that come to a net win of just over $1,100.


    228
    252
      96
     -36
    120
    -300
    216
    312
    -48
    108
    180
    ------
    1128

    I have full telemetry for each trip's data records. It's fascinating to see what works best by studying the charts. I recommend a data / telemetry process for all your practice.

    Example of one three net win:
    -----------------------------------------


    | 1  2  3 | A  B  C | B  R | O  E | L  H |
    | X       |    X    | X    |    X | X    |
    | X       | X       |    X | X    | X    |
    |    X    |    X    |    X |    X | X    |
    |    X    |    X    |    X |    X | X    |
    |    X    | X       | X    | X    | X    |
    |       X |       X |    X | X    |    X |
    | X       | X       |    X | X    | X    |
    |    X    |    X    | X    |    X |    X |
    |    X    | X       | X    |    X |    X |
    |    X    | X       | X    | X    | X    |
    |       X | X       |    X | X    |    X |
    |       X |       X |    X |    X |    X |
    | X       |       X |    X | X    | X    |
    |       X | X       |    X |    X |    X |
    |       X |    X    | X    | X    |    X |
    | X       | X       | X    |    X | X    |    04 -- W  ( $ 12 )
    | X       |    X    | X    |    X | X    |    02 -- W  ( $ 24 )
    | X       |       X |    X | X    | X    |    03 -- L  ( $ 0 )
    | X       |    X    | X    | X    | X    |    11 -- W  ( $ 12 )
    |       X |    X    |    X |    X |    X |    32 -- L  ( $ -12 )
    |    X    |       X | X    | X    | X    |    15 -- W  ( $ 0 )
    |    X    |       X | X    |    X |    X |    24 -- L  ( $ -24 )
    | X       |    X    | X    | X    | X    |    11 -- L  ( $ -48 )
    | X       |    X    |    X | X    | X    |    05 -- W  ( $ -36 )
    |       X |    X    | X    |    X |    X |    26 -- W  ( $ -24 )
    | X       |    X    | X    |    X | X    |    08 -- W  ( $ -12 )
    |    X    |       X |    X | X    |    X |    21 -- W  ( $ 0 )
    |    X    |       X | X    |    X |    X |    24 -- W  ( $ 12 )
    | X       |    X    |    X | X    | X    |    05 -- W  ( $ 24 )
    | X       |    X    | X    |    X | X    |    08 -- W  ( $ 36 )




    "...IT'S AGAINST THE LAW TO BREAK THE LAW OF AVERAGES."