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How much to win vs to risk

Started by Garfield, January 10, 2016, 06:16:01 PM

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Garfield

Is it just me or anyone ?

In a session, I aim to win at least twice my buy in BR. Because why we risk 20 units just to gain 4 units? Shouldn't the rewards at least equal to the risk?
You will never know. Not now, not in this life. You aren't that lucky.

Jimske

Quote from: Garfield on January 10, 2016, 06:16:01 PM
Is it just me or anyone ?

In a session, I aim to win at least twice my buy in BR. Because why we risk 20 units just to gain 4 units? Shouldn't the rewards at least equal to the risk?
Twice your bankroll per session?  That's a pretty tall order.  But a good question.  Having a plan is most important.  My theoretical win per hour is 9 units a session.  My bankroll per session is about 60 units.  My Bacc session is about 3 shoes.  So my win goal long term is about 15% of my bankroll.  The losses really hurt!  LOL

J

gr8player

I'm not a big fan of "session win goals".  Simply too much pressure, all applied, frankly, needlessly.

Much better, IMHO, to simply seek profit on each winning "attack" as you deem it appropriate.  After you lock that profit up, proceed to your next attack, as prompted.

Now, in those "tougher than usual" shoes/sessions, where those "profit lockups" are rather scarce, "back off" as opposed to the much-more-usual style of "ramping up".

Try to visualize the game OVER THE LONG TERM.  That'll do wonders to alleviate any unnecessary shoe and/or session pressure.

Stay well.

HunchBacShrimp

Pretty tricky doubling your buy in every time. I understand the idea. Seems senseless to risk 10k to with 2k, a 20% return. However, with the mindset that you have to double your buy in, you are a saying..." I am able to win 20 units without encountering a draw down of the same size. I admit, I've pulled in 20u or more in a session with barely more than a 10u draw down, but those instances are rare.

Seems an unrealistic goal for me personally, but maybe not someone else. For me, its just the amount of time necessary to pull that off every single time. Fatigue and impatience can burn through your bankroll more efficiently than just losing a handful more bets than you won.

If it is possible to pull in 20% of your buy in, with draw downs three times that amount, on five different occasions then its the same thing as doubling your BR. It's just that the session has been stretched out over several days.

I have in the past went home with a partial loss, and bought in the next session with the remainder of my original Buy in instead of topping it off, and won myself either back to even, closer to even, or into a small profit. 

Whenever I bust out my buy in, I always consider how much money that made me. For instance, 80u buy in wins 10 to 20 units over ten successful sessions. An average of about 150 units. Then the 80u bust. It's a net gain of 50u. And time to hit it again next time with 80u.

Convert this into dollars and think of it like this..... I just turned 800 bucks into 1300 bucks. Now,it's time to see how much I can turn the next 800 bucks into. Hopefully not less.

Personally, I never consider a busted bank roll money I lost that I'm desperate to get back. As long as I'm in profit, I take a break, clear my head, and hit again with another session BR.

As for losses..... Sucks to turn 800 bucks into 400 bucks for a 400 dollar loss. But it isn't a complete loss. Take a break, and hit again with a new session BR.

It's busting out that session BR on the very first session that truly sucks. It just feels like you gave your money away. But it happens, on a larger scale, one should expect some session BR draw downs, no different than unit draw downs when you are at the table.

To me, stressing over doubling my buy in for every session, would cause me to try and force it, which would lead to disaster. Same as coming back the next day with double your buy in trying to instantly recoup the most immediate losses. It is a session BR marty. Not a good idea at any unit level.

So, as long as your are coming ahead in the long run, it doesn't matter what is happening in the short run.

HBS

HBS.

horus

Quote from: gr8player on January 10, 2016, 07:51:20 PM
I'm not a big fan of "session win goals".  Simply too much pressure, all applied, frankly, needlessly.

Much better, IMHO, to simply seek profit on each winning "attack" as you deem it appropriate.  After you lock that profit up, proceed to your next attack, as prompted.

Now, in those "tougher than usual" shoes/sessions, where those "profit lockups" are rather scarce, "back off" as opposed to the much-more-usual style of "ramping up".

Try to visualize the game OVER THE LONG TERM.  That'll do wonders to alleviate any unnecessary shoe and/or session pressure.

Stay well.

An excellent reply Gr8player. I agree with you 100%. The best you can do IMO is to stay alert and make the most of the opportunities that present themselves. That may take you into profit for the session or just get you back to even at times. Slow and steady with no added pressure of targets gets the job done. Cheers.
If you fail to know, fail to prepare, fail to plan and practice, then know full well that you are knowingly preparing and planning to lose. What you don't know and don't do will be your undoing.

AsymBacGuy

Yes, if anyone here thinks that baccarat is a really beatable game itlr, gr8player is the number one poster to follow.

as. 

 
Baccarat is 99% skill and 1% luck

CLEAR EYES, FULL HEARTS. CAN'T LOSE
(Friday Night Lights TV series)

I NEVER LOSE.
I EITHER WIN OR LEARN
(Nelson Mandela)

Winners don't do different things, they do things differently (Albalaha)

Jimske

Quote from: gr8player on January 10, 2016, 07:51:20 PM
I'm not a big fan of "session win goals".  Simply too much pressure, all applied, frankly, needlessly.

Much better, IMHO, to simply seek profit on each winning "attack" as you deem it appropriate.  After you lock that profit up, proceed to your next attack, as prompted.

Now, in those "tougher than usual" shoes/sessions, where those "profit lockups" are rather scarce, "back off" as opposed to the much-more-usual style of "ramping up".

Try to visualize the game OVER THE LONG TERM.  That'll do wonders to alleviate any unnecessary shoe and/or session pressure.

Stay well.
I wouldn't necessarily assume unusual pressure just because one has a goal.  It simply means you have a plan to follow.  A session in and of itself as a function of time is part of the goal.  Whether or not we achieve the win is never assured.  The game never ends but it is nice to have some sense of achievement.  Reaching a $ win goal and quitting promotes discipline. 

Perhaps the session length is actually more important than the desired win.  But I have been known on occasion to play only one shoe and then go home after an unusual but extraordinary win.  It's good for the soul.

Jimske

Quote from: AsymBacGuy on January 11, 2016, 12:41:09 AM
Yes, if anyone here thinks that baccarat is a really beatable game itlr, gr8player is the number one poster to follow.

as.
May we then assume you have abandoned your method and are now following Gr8?  It's understandable of course.  Forgive me for saying but making one bet per several shoes or more seems like a road to nowhere.

Perhaps you'd like to expound on how Gr8 plays since for most I'm pretty sure following something that is largely unknown is rather difficult.

J

Jimske

Quote from: horus on January 11, 2016, 12:08:27 AM
The best you can do IMO is to stay alert and make the most of the opportunities that present themselves.
That's not much of a plan, IMO.  Any plan is better than none.  It's a good idea to stay alert of course.  But the casino environment has a way of dulling ones alertness without ones knowing.  The subdued colors and lighting, the air conditioning at 3 AM to keep people awake, the drinks if you do (I don't).  The friendly critters, etc.  One would do well to have a bit better plan than staying alert and "make the most of opportunities" (whatever that means I'm not sure).

AsymBacGuy

Quote from: Jimske on January 11, 2016, 01:25:33 AM
May we then assume you have abandoned your method and are now following Gr8?  It's understandable of course.  Forgive me for saying but making one bet per several shoes or more seems like a road to nowhere.

Perhaps you'd like to expound on how Gr8 plays since for most I'm pretty sure following something that is largely unknown is rather difficult.

J

Nope, I don't abandon my method and of course you are right: it's very difficult to play a very diluted method even if you know you'll get the best of it. Slightly of course.

But I have many common points of view with gr8player though.

He plays few hands or at least he plays a very controlled game. I do.

He tries to restrict the variance, both positive and negative. I do.

He knows that some situations will come out more often than others, I do.

He tries to give a value of everything he encounters, a different view of considering variance, I do.

He sayed he plays baccarat for a living, for what he wrote so far I have to give him some credit.

Even you Jim made some good points and I collect everything I think worth of it.

Actually I didn't invent anything, a couple of posters have already pointed out what should be the best course of action.

They were right.

as. 

   



Baccarat is 99% skill and 1% luck

CLEAR EYES, FULL HEARTS. CAN'T LOSE
(Friday Night Lights TV series)

I NEVER LOSE.
I EITHER WIN OR LEARN
(Nelson Mandela)

Winners don't do different things, they do things differently (Albalaha)

Garfield

Maybe it's more suitable to say that in one shoe/session, my profit should be the same amount of my stop loss.

Of course the stop loss level is different with what some would have said as "lifetime BR".

If not like that then what is the point playing this game or any other game? Do we really expect to gain just a little percentage of what we are willing to risk?

If yes, than the casino shouldn't be worry at all. They don't have to cheat on us, or banned us, or anything similar since they know that they would gain more than they would pay us.

So, all the method we use to approach this game should be aiming for that one particular goals. To profit at least equal to the amount of risk.

Please CMIIW
You will never know. Not now, not in this life. You aren't that lucky.

horus

Quote from: Jimske on January 11, 2016, 01:33:24 AM
That's not much of a plan, IMO.  Any plan is better than none.  It's a good idea to stay alert of course.  But the casino environment has a way of dulling ones alertness without ones knowing.  The subdued colors and lighting, the air conditioning at 3 AM to keep people awake, the drinks if you do (I don't).  The friendly critters, etc.  One would do well to have a bit better plan than staying alert and "make the most of opportunities" (whatever that means I'm not sure).

Jimske, I play roulette and there are a lot more twists and turns to look out for in that game as opposed to baccarat IMO. Staying alert with my MO is probably the most important aspect so I can hopefully get out of a session as quickly as possible with a profit (any profit is ok)

I started this week off with 400 units.

session 1. 16 spins
session 2. 12 spins.
session 3. 12 spins.
session 4. 8 spins.
session 5. 12 spins.
session 6. 19 spins.
session 7. 38 spins.
session 8. 49 spins.
session 9. 52 spins.

No targets. Anyway, I broke even on one session and won the other 8. Doubled my bankroll. Now I can withdraw and start again. Some of them sessions are very short and I don't have time to warm up. I need to be 100% switched on from the word go. I always like to quit on a couple of wins followed by a loss even if it means just a small session profit. I suppose playing on line allows me to do this.

If you fail to know, fail to prepare, fail to plan and practice, then know full well that you are knowingly preparing and planning to lose. What you don't know and don't do will be your undoing.

Garfield

Played 4 table today. Doubled my BR on the first. Break even on the 2nd. Plus 30% on the 3rd and break even on the 4th.

My target goal per shoe is different. If it was rather easy, go for 10+u. Moderate maybe 4-5u. Hard break even already a good result.

Now I play with casino money. Keep the BR. Try to repeat the procedure again and again.  :)) The sky is the limit I guess
You will never know. Not now, not in this life. You aren't that lucky.