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Luck of the Irish?

Started by soxfan, April 10, 2016, 01:04:22 AM

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gr8player

Quote from: Jimske on April 10, 2016, 09:00:15 PM
Ahhh the Gr8 one is back.  Not simple?  You got the holy grail.  Maybe the rules are not so easy to learn but how hard can it be to follow rules.  Sox says he can't teach his placement because it has an element of subjectivity.  Makes sense.  Your method with a terrific win rate of 54% is not subjective therefore teachable, right?

Why not try to find someone and teach it to them for a nice fat one time pay check.  Wouldn't be too hard to get someone to fork over a couple hundred grand for the holy grail!

Hello, Jimske, I trust all is well with you.

I do play a rather subjective game; had you have read my very next post below the one you quoted, you'd have known that.

You and I both know that there exists no "mechanical" holy grail, so why even bother to bring that up?

That all said, my game most certainly is "teachable", even given its subjective nature.  I've been "teaching" on these boards for years now, and I have enlightened many a member as to the real truths of how one might be able to get the better of this game over the long run.

But, know this, my friend, it's anything but "simple".  If it were, this game would not exist for us.

Stay well.

gr8player

Quote from: AsymBacGuy on April 10, 2016, 11:15:29 PM
So, imo, we should think the game as a long term proposition, the like casinos will make tons of bucks itlr, accepting the short-intermediate losing periods.
Imo we can't give casinos the luxury to catch all or great part of our money just on one, two or three key hands.

As already posted, there must be a general plan and an actual plan.
The wisest move we can do to match those plans is to wait, wait and wait.
Virtually losing some bets, imo, will get the best results.
In the sense that we can start our betting plan after some virtual losses.

Anyone here knows the difficulty to keep the winnings after some played shoes, well we should think the perfect opposite when we're finding us on the losing (virtual) side.

as.

Spot on, ABG; good job, my friend.

I've been espousing the inherent advantages of "virtual losses" forever, and my Bac game would not/could not succeed lacking same.

After two consecutive losses (three, at most), I'll await a virtual win before recommencing real betting.  In this manner, I find myself "recalculating" my position constantly, as well as "re-reading" the table's current propensities.

Know this:  Often times, my "no-bet" (read: virtual) option is my most powerful weapon at the time.

Stay well.

AsymBacGuy

gr8player: thanks, my friend!

Along with maybe a couple or three posters here, with 1 trillion accuracy there wouldn't be a f. single chance we can lose itlr playing this game together.

No jokes, we should set up a team.

as. 















Baccarat is 99% skill and 1% luck

CLEAR EYES, FULL HEARTS. CAN'T LOSE
(Friday Night Lights TV series)

I NEVER LOSE.
I EITHER WIN OR LEARN
(Nelson Mandela)

Winners don't do different things, they do things differently (Albalaha)

james

Quote from: RouletteGhost on April 10, 2016, 09:19:35 PM
Mr majiks MM beats this

Soxfan progression is a variation of Mr. Majik progression. Both need two consecutive wins. In Soxfan progression you win more as you go deeper, whereas in Majik progression you win the same amount.

james

Quote from: Jimske on April 10, 2016, 08:53:23 PM
You're making a mistake.  I don't know where you get the second $10 prog that does add up to 875 but the first prog which he wrote gets to 175 units or $1,750.00 at $10.

You are right if the unit size is $10 and the starting bet is $20. The total loss if you bust is $1750.

My numbers are for unit size of $5 and starting bet of $10 for $10 minimum tables. 

RouletteGhost

james

with a strong bet selection it should do fine

the bet selection technique is the big one

HOW do we get a back to back win once within 12 tries guaranteed?
QuoteBecause the house always wins. Play long enough, you never change the stakes. The house takes you. Unless, when that perfect hand comes along, you bet and you bet big, then you take the house.

soxfan

Quote from: Eight Iron on April 10, 2016, 02:41:02 PM
You would need more than that.

Using his progression of 2,2,2,6,8,10,15,20,25,35,50 (See June 7, 2015), you would be down 125 units after ten consecutive losses.

In order to make the 50 unit bet after ten losses, you would need a BR of 175 units.

Using that progression, the deficit would be 50 units plus commissions after winning the last 50 unit bet.

A single win at the 50 units level don't get it done, ya gotta capture the parlay to scoop a fat profit and reset the progression to first bet, hey hey.

soxfan

Quote from: RouletteGhost on April 11, 2016, 01:05:39 AM
james

with a strong bet selection it should do fine

the bet selection technique is the big one

HOW do we get a back to back win once within 12 tries guaranteed?

You can't avoid progressions busts outs. They are inevitable, the cost of doing business, nothing more or less. I buck up against 30 shoe each and every week and win about 90% of shoe. My lifetime bankroll is 1800 unit so no single progression busts clips me for more than 10% of my lifetime roll; and I often capture 40+ units profits on winning shoe so it ain't too hard to claw back from those 175 units busts outs, hey hey.

RouletteGhost

Quote from: soxfan on April 11, 2016, 03:34:04 AM
You can't avoid progressions busts outs. They are inevitable, the cost of doing business, nothing more or less. I buck up against 30 shoe each and every week and win about 90% of shoe. My lifetime bankroll is 1800 unit so no single progression busts clips me for more than 10% of my lifetime roll; and I often capture 40+ units profits on winning shoe so it ain't too hard to claw back from those 175 units busts outs, hey hey.

I understand
QuoteBecause the house always wins. Play long enough, you never change the stakes. The house takes you. Unless, when that perfect hand comes along, you bet and you bet big, then you take the house.

Jimske

Quote from: gr8player on April 10, 2016, 11:21:50 PM
Hello, Jimske, I trust all is well with you.

I do play a rather subjective game; had you have read my very next post below the one you quoted, you'd have known that.

You and I both know that there exists no "mechanical" holy grail, so why even bother to bring that up?

That all said, my game most certainly is "teachable", even given its subjective nature.  I've been "teaching" on these boards for years now, and I have enlightened many a member as to the real truths of how one might be able to get the better of this game over the long run.

But, know this, my friend, it's anything but "simple".  If it were, this game would not exist for us.

Stay well.
We've been having the same discussion on these forums for over ten years.  We keep on going around and around.  Perhaps it's just a matter of definition which causes the problem. 

You got soxfan  implying can't teach the bet selection because it's subjective.  Than Gr8 contradicts and says yes his method subjective but it can be taught.  Can we all at least agree that both statements cannot be true?

My definition of "subjective" play or perhaps better stated as subjective bet placement simply means that given the same exact circumstance(s) one would not necessarily make the same placement(s).  Further, subjective bet placements are not rule based therefore cannot be demonstrated to either have a positive or negative expectation.

So if you say you can teach subjective bet placement then what can be said other than show how to make some educated guess based on some pre-condition?

If you call advising players to be patient, have discipline,  use virtual losses, promoting the 7-Step negative prog and money management "teaching" and "enlightening" than yeah. . . fine, whatever.


Jimske

Quote from: AsymBacGuy on April 11, 2016, 12:07:50 AM
gr8player: thanks, my friend!

Along with maybe a couple or three posters here, with 1 trillion accuracy there wouldn't be a f. single chance we can lose itlr playing this game together.

No jokes, we should set up a team.

as.
Wait . . . was it a year now?  two years ago?  when you were going to fly to the East Coast and get together with me and/or Gr8 to combine talents?  You've been spewing hot air on this and other forums for years now.

First it was knowing some "rare opportunities" that had a high positive expectation that for some reason could not be revealed.  Then came the book endeavor which was going to be published "soon."  Lately you're thinking maybe it should be two or three books!

Are you surprised , John, that you have lost all credibility?

soxfan

Quote from: james on April 11, 2016, 12:42:02 AM
Soxfan progression is a variation of Mr. Majik progression. Both need two consecutive wins. In Soxfan progression you win more as you go deeper, whereas in Majik progression you win the same amount.

You need to be able to capture more than just a coupla unit for a coup of back to back win, hey hey.

AsymBacGuy

Quote from: Jimske on April 11, 2016, 02:42:52 PM
Wait . . . was it a year now?  two years ago?  when you were going to fly to the East Coast and get together with me and/or Gr8 to combine talents?  You've been spewing hot air on this and other forums for years now.

First it was knowing some "rare opportunities" that had a high positive expectation that for some reason could not be revealed.  Then came the book endeavor which was going to be published "soon."  Lately you're thinking maybe it should be two or three books!

Are you surprised , John, that you have lost all credibility?

"Do I contradict myself? / Very well then I contradict myself / (I am large, I contain multitudes)".

(Walt Whitman)

as.
Baccarat is 99% skill and 1% luck

CLEAR EYES, FULL HEARTS. CAN'T LOSE
(Friday Night Lights TV series)

I NEVER LOSE.
I EITHER WIN OR LEARN
(Nelson Mandela)

Winners don't do different things, they do things differently (Albalaha)

soxfan

I made this post to show that at times you will need and get some good lucks on yer side. Also, you can win when yer bets selection is capturing less than 50% winner, hey hey!

AsymBacGuy

Quote from: soxfan on April 11, 2016, 08:58:00 PM
I made this post to show that at times you will need and get some good lucks on yer side. Also, you can win when yer bets selection is capturing less than 50% winner, hey hey!

If you were able to pass such horrible sequence you must be good at this game.  :thumbsup:


as. 



Baccarat is 99% skill and 1% luck

CLEAR EYES, FULL HEARTS. CAN'T LOSE
(Friday Night Lights TV series)

I NEVER LOSE.
I EITHER WIN OR LEARN
(Nelson Mandela)

Winners don't do different things, they do things differently (Albalaha)