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Topic: Where are we now with research and development  (Read 3646 times)

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Offline XXVV

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Where are we now with research and development
« on: May 01, 2016, 12:41:15 am »
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  • Greetings

    It is the beginning of May, a time of much significance and opportunity.

    We have been through six months of profound study and search for true principles of a possible CWB, and by some colleagues extraordinary efforts to test theories for such a wonderful tool. It is an extremely difficult task and always it is necessary to question, be sceptical in a healthy sense, and not become lost in a labyrinth of tunnels and passages. Such was the ancient test, to retain clear vision and sanity even when faced with fear and uncertainty.

    So a healthy and sane detachment is always needed to keep a clear head and clear vision.

    Inevitably we all bring our past experiences into the present which can both help and hinder. Therefore it is necessary to prioritise, and as I say to my students in Architecture, we all need to reach in and out in order to build a framework, a structure, a matrix, that is unique for every one of us, that we can use as a foundation on which to build our our future house of experience.

    A few get this idea, and sparkle with realisation and excitement of a way forward. There is no better feeling than to share and encourage another to gain insight into a life path.

    The search within Roulette is made up of a series of choices and prioritisations based on a conscious commitment to much hard work ahead and a basic understanding of the nature of the game, its history, and its current forms.

    What is so fantastic about our time is that research can be accelerated and thus precious time can be saved, avoiding the experiences of past efforts that may have resulted in a life's work coming to nothing. This is not a happy state, and there are times when this cloud has touched my experience also.

    This year has seen fresh research into CWB ideas, writings and theories, as well as phenomenal progress and publication of computer research platforms which show great promise. Perhaps as with chess, ways can be found along various pathways to beat the game.

    Personally, I enjoy a casino environment, sometimes alone, sometimes with a full house.

    As always, as a frequent player, I have to be aware of the risks and tendencies in behaviour and tread a fine line sometimes to avoid the traps of compulsive and addictive behaviour. I recommend the links provided by Gizmotron in his latest posts. What amuses me is the constant movement like a fluid of our emotions and capacities for control. It comes with knowledge and practice but the mastery of professional control is always going to be a 'tendency towards' type phenomenon, never black and white or concrete linear. We watch and observe ourselves and learn from mistakes but never underestimate how long it may take to improve while other skills and capacities also have their cyclic time lines.

    In other words it is where art meets science in performing at your best under the stress of live play and bringing to mind and action the best of your sum of knowledge and experience to date, while also learning from others.

    So I notice how clever to pre program into technical play loss limits, and choices of optimum targets for gain as a percentage of risk bank. Also to determine for your bet selection view applied to your choice of bet with its unique characteristics so as to know the window of opportunity that may open for you, and thus to enable seizing the day, with attack and appropriate strategy.

    It has been fascinating to observe the terminologies and approach from the VR work of TM. That these efforts have been published and shared with good results obtained , and to a considered extent is an excellent benchmark for us all.

    So purpose of this thread is to sum my personal view, approach and beliefs at this time. One key difference between my personal work and that of the VR teams is that I work alone in a physical casino live, and thus must rely on my wits at any time. That is why my results can range from outstanding to diabolical -lol.  As I say variance is still my major concern, but I would like to elaborate a little on progress I have made and give some guidance as to what I see as an embryonic CWB where there is some glimmer of worthy hope, and yet still very far from what we would consider as 'consistent'.

    This is the sum of results I have achieved from testing from prior live spin data over the past week, being 10 sessions and just over 1000 spins recorded by me session by session at my local casino.

    Winning sessions 7 and losing sessions 3

    Best winning session +306 units in 137 spins and worst session -162 units in 96 spins (but was +81 units after 55 spins)

    Private Bet on one set only ( focus on Columns)  +537 units in 1014 spins

    Column Bets  as directed through P/B     Cols 1 and 3   +30 units      Cols 1 and 2 and 3  +40 units.

    Sessions 1 and 2 were successful so the net results have never been in negative territory.

    Obviously smart play can interactively close a session if reading of the game indicates trouble ahead and the losing session above was a classic where at worst the live player would have baled out at +0 at worst.

    Note the Private Bet can be applied to over a dozen sets ( 4 groups of 9 numbers) and usually for live play I monitor 2-3 sets as well as the WF phenomenon. In this case I focused on the one set and the column bets when triggered. Of the data tested so far the straight single column target bet is most efficient in Column 1 and Column 3.

    We can also search out a possible co-relation between the simple Table Set and triggers for Dozen targets. It is possibly similar in nature as the former approach and then it is a matter of tuning and tweaking the rules for max efficiency (non waste)

    Now we can also investigate the possible relation between the R/B set and the R/B skew in Cols 3 and 2.

    Last a frontier of work may be to inter-link these 2-3 tools into one CWB where the gaps between action may be reduced to such an extent that more spins are played live than waiting. We shall see, and what is that ideal ratio?

    With practice three sets can be monitored just using casino cards thus not attracting undue attention.

    Another path to explore is the use of sets for R/O and B/E, then Odd and Even sets.  H/L is already monitored through Table Set but fresh overlays are possible.

    Finally we can look at spreads of Splits,  and even Corner Bets.

    Easy once memorised.

    In a further post I will go into a little more detail of the Bet Selection above and then the MM for max efficiency.

    Avoiding excessive play or profit from any one casino will eventually be a major consideration.

    I am sure this is a valid pathway and my priority is to enhance efficiency and reduce/ control variance. My focus is to have the methodology and strategy internalised so as to be completely undercover, without and free from technological computer help while live. I have various reasons for choosing this approach. I always however am open to multiple solutions and am convinced such a responsive system such as I am configuring can be refined and honed to enable a CWB. We never know what may yet unfold in science, and there is a lot of room for development also with the grey fuzzy areas of intuition and multiplicities. Best wishes to those on the VR pathway and similar ways also.

    Hope this encourages you.
    Best
    xxvv


    Offline XXVV

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    Re: Where are we now with research and development
    « Reply #1 on: May 02, 2016, 08:11:39 am »
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  • Attempting to integrate the three poles of Col/ Doz and EC into a predictive most likely next outcome based on a past moving window is very difficult, although at times I have done this, following trends as the strongest signal.

    However the relative complexity of this task has thus influenced me to look at a phenomenon, related but so much simpler than the integration required above.

    What I am now evaluating is the Dominant ( of any aspect of the game of roulette) and observing that to find the characteristics of decay or strengthening through a session.

    There is a theory that the outcomes of a session may be indicated by review of the first 20-30 spins of the day.

    I will evaluate 100 sessions and see the relative continuity/ discontinuity of a trend. Of course warm/ hot numbers/ WF, is one aspect of this. On numerous occasions I have noted the characteristics of the sets' behaviour in my private bet work can be observed from the outset. How often do you find a losing session starts with several concurrent or consequent losses. After 20 spins you could go home and save yourself a bankroll. Conversely I have found a strong start  means most often a winning session to follow. This is more subtle than you might think because I evaluate session performance at  seven grades based on large empirical evidence and it is the outliers which provide the real interest.

    If this analysis is successful my intention is to keep play as simple as possible and outlay as little as possible for maximum return. That is efficiency.

    Offline XXVV

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    Re: Where are we now with research and development
    « Reply #2 on: May 02, 2016, 09:10:28 pm »
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  • It is important to define the duration of the sessions involved here for the validity of the initial observation. This is seen as practical live empirical work and so the subsequent play may range from a further 30 to a further 300 spins being the practical limitation of a European Casino session lasting 12-14 hours, or a session in a local Casino which may range from an hour to 12 hours. However my prime aim is to target 2-3 hour morning sessions where play is fast and quiet.

    Out of interest my first three session tests did indeed support the theory that the first 20 -30 spins did indicate a a likely Dominant over 200-300 spins ahead. In this particular case I was viewing Columns. It is fascinating from my German Casino data to observe the relative skew between columns over a 200-300 spin duration. From observing 100 of these I was able to determine the range of ratios of maximum distance between highest to lowest Column appearance divided into the total number of spins involved. The lower the ratio the higher the skew to enable Dominance.
    In one extraordinary case seen quite early in my latest observation of local casino outcomes I found a ratio as low as 4.2 which meant the third column was hugely dominant over an extended period and flat staking ( of course) reading the trend enabled excellent profit. The largest ratio I observed was about 79, where very rarely the outcomes of the Column appearances were very close.

    Clearly this phenomenon can be applied also to Dozens.

    What is useful here is the 2:1 payout on a single selection.

    The distribution bell curve of such outcomes makes useful analysis and shows that quick and accurate early reading of a trend can provide excellent results.

    The simplicity of this approach being derived from a phenomenon 'right under our noses' gives me much satisfaction, especially after the complexity and complications I have engineered with other sorts of bets.

    Recall my primary aim is to derive the most efficient and effective bets able to be played by an alert professional player live in the casino without any form of technology support or recording other than in a standard casino record card for roulette, or even totally undercover.

    Offline XXVV

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    Re: Where are we now with research and development
    « Reply #3 on: May 03, 2016, 08:07:26 pm »
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  • In a live game yesterday where I had the luxury of 9 hours at the casino ( testing long duration games) the principle of the dominant column was monitored after the first 20-30 spins and on several shorter sessions proved most helpful. I need a suitably large sample before I can bet solely on this approach and that may take another week, but early results are really most encouraging.

    Over the 9 hours that included an hour for lunch, I played 7 sessions at tables from 1,2 and 5 dollar units. The best result came from the $5 table where a $100 buy in enabled a remarkable step to a peak of $1400, and I cashed up at $1200. The best moments were playing with a Dealer I had encountered twice earlier in the day ( both successful) and I seemed to 'know' where he was spinning. It was a different wheel type - more a bucket slot rather then the shallow scalloped model used with lighter balls. I prefer this wheel type and bigger heavier ball and I am told by casino staff they use it because many Asian players at higher stakes prefer this. Well so do I, although in an abstract sense it should make no difference. Watching the wheel the outcome seems so much more definitive. I played 'holistically' in that it was all internalised but I recorded the prime zone for hits being the A-D adjacent section of the wheel between 1 and 21. I used street pattern clusters and finales pattern clusters amongst the wheel area play and use of dominant cluster pairings for columns as well, with a splash of WF thrown in with focus on 12 and neighbours.

    It is amazing that when it 'comes together' there is a synthesis and clarity which is part intuitive , part analytical, and emotional in the confidence and expectation of success. Of course it has its own timeframe and life cycle - in this case about 30 spins.

    No need for technology or notes in this case.

    Add a sensible cool head in MM and it is clear when to stop, cash up and leave.

    Offline Gizmotron

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    Re: Where are we now with research and development
    « Reply #4 on: May 04, 2016, 10:23:50 pm »
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  • It is amazing that when it 'comes together' there is a synthesis and clarity which is part intuitive , part analytical, and emotional in the confidence and expectation of success. Of course it has its own timeframe and life cycle - in this case about 30 spins.

    You have experienced what I always look for. Just remember this one thing. When you don't see it don't go chasing after it, especially when it ends. I drop back to minimum bets or no bets as soon as it ends.

    Nice job of relating when it works.
    "...IT'S AGAINST THE LAW TO BREAK THE LAW OF AVERAGES." 

    Offline XXVV

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    Re: Where are we now with research and development
    « Reply #5 on: May 05, 2016, 11:01:39 pm »
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  • Yes, the events of 3 May were fascinating because, and this is where the intuitive and subconscious levels engage, the energised performance was an all day event or at least 9 hours and covered several tables  at various chip values and also some favourite slots nearby as they enabled even more leverage. So when I say holistic I mean total. Of course the focus diminishes with exhaustion  but nevertheless the best plays were close to the end of the day although we re-traced a few hundred units.

    I was aware of the axiom, to really play aggressively when the opportunity was there and demonstrated. This was a positive reinforcement and comes with practice.

    Best experience of all though was the approach of playing a small number of high value chips at the roulette and making good choices, then stepping up staking as a percentage of winning outcomes, so a sort of sustained part parlay but with big cash chips earned then those being placed in the pocket.

    That seems to me to be, when all the signals are there, and there is good Dealer anticipation ( ie good history) a winning strategy. If the 20 chips are lost, that engagement is lost and that is the end of play in that arena for the time being, or the day.

    As Gizmotron well summarised in his thread he is looking for key factors as triggers for action, whether baccarat or roulette.

    I am reading WF ( repeat clustering), Wheel Section Sets, Table Sets, Finales Sets, Street Sets, R/B Sets, Column Sets, Dominant Cluster Sets in Columns (pairs), Zero action, and finally Dominant Column play ( possibly Dozens as well). This synthesis can easily be read given access to at least 20 prior numbers before joining the game.

    That is the closest to a moving window CWB I can formulate at this time. I just look for outcome characteristics, skewed or balanced- either condition will do. You play for 'same' or 'change'. Usually these trends will continue through a 100 spin, even up to a 300 spin session. In the mind the CWB variables are sorted and prioritised, the triggers are noted and a plan of action is visualised with a suitable goal which can be exceeded if necessary. However in my game the variables may well change after one spin and the window may modify or close.

    Recall my approach is to be 'invisible' and non technological so I can play live at any reputable casino.

    In fact here is one thesis I am fond of at the moment. On the basis that a clear Dominant is identified in the first 20-30 spins of a session you wish to join, then the theory is that in the case of Columns, but of course it may also apply to Dozens, the dominance continues for a further 30-50-100-300 spins till end of session or exhaustion has set in or the wise setting of a goal being say 30% of RB is achieved.

    Also you look for symmetries. This from a game yesterday......

    2
    5
    10
    33
    2
    8
    2
    16
    1
    5
    2

    You are playing wheel neighbours or positions, and allow for one or two either side of a target number. This combination of Symmetry/ WF and Wheel Sets B-C here is a wonderful opportunity that was clear from 8 onwards, offering multiple sequential hits.

    Notice as with the approach of TM, it is wise to allow for 'slippage' or tolerance and what I term 'a tendency toward a target number', and this needs on the wheel to be covered either side by 2-3 other neighbours. It is fascinating where we can find overlaps in our various techniques with several other gifted players and researchers.

    Notice how there has been a dramatic shift in the past two years by top researchers allowing for flexibility in approach rather than fixed rules. This is so important and brought about by moving windows and following changing trends in the short cycle nature of roulette.

    I remember Arvis emphasising that with me several years ago.