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Topic: MB 16  (Read 26970 times)

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Offline XXVV

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MB 16
« on: June 12, 2016, 10:49:23 pm »
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  • This thread links with the 16 versus 9 and will explore Martin Blakey's 'winning strategy', as applied to the use of the fundamental fixed corner bets. Note he developed many templates and sometimes I believe adjusted play to suit the current outcome sequences with the assistance of a colleague at the table.

    This thread will gratefully accept any contributions from readers regarding adapted and applied progressions to suit, manage and effectively master ( most of the time) the variance encountered with this simple but charming fixed bet.  The skill here will be in Money Management.

    I am diving into this deliberately as I witness so many promising ideas from others, and myself sometimes, where better control is needed to handle corrective phases ( other than immediate departure-lol).

    Please be patient here. This thread will move slowly as there is much to learn, adapt and apply, and will always give credit to my sources.


    Offline XXVV

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    Re: MB 16
    « Reply #1 on: June 24, 2016, 01:01:16 am »
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  • The intention here is to share without edit a valid approach to long term success in roulette play.

    This end goal can be achieved in several ways. This is one of them.

    Here for reference are two sessions from www.rouletteplayers.org where I have two accounts - both experimental.

    We are assured if you read rouletteforum and the statement from SH that the data that flows is based on live session data approximately 300 spin tranches. At first I used to think it was RNG but have encountered several situations recently where I can accept the true live nature ( although some argue you can never tell). I have observed some heavy adverse corrections but I suspect that was falling between the cracks of adjoining sessions seamlessly edited. I disagree with such a policy because I usually play in my private bet within small cycles within cycles and context is critical within 30-50 spin sequences. A random edit in the midst of this can cause odd behaviour and I have encountered that a few times with huge adverse runs when I have lost control and composure. The emotion management in roulette is just as important as control and reading of other variables, only emotions are more powerful than anything.

    So recently I have returned to the xxvv account and applied the MB 16 approach. Now I also overlay WF sometimes and other techniques when there is a clear signal and I play at high unit values.

    Therein lies one danger.

    My private bet I use flat staking but sometimes step unit values to suit cycles of success/ correction.

    Also the rouletteplayers table setout is flawed badly by permitting no split bets on zero so that zero cover is much more limited than with other numbers. This is a tunnel vision approach because really zero is just another number and in fact has some characteristics that enable it to be played as a super anchor bet when able to be suitably loaded. This table does not permit such and thus has caused me some losses.

    My goal at that table is to endeavour to earn more than we spend, despite the skewed table setout.

    Nevertheless I am very grateful for the facility and SH has done a fabulous job establishing it as a good training/ proving ground. The best players at the top of the table are very clever.

    I am currently trying to increase my bet efficiency and you will note at around 900 games played this is much less than 19 of the other top 20 players. It is easier to improve your net average with a smaller number of games so have made good progress this past week.

    So the way I am playing I am hoping to demonstrate what can be a winning strategy. It is sometimes hard to be consistent, but in this case my goal is worthwhile so this motivates me.

    MB 16 is based on four set corner bets   2/6   11/15    16/20   and   31/35.

    These have been selected to spread evenly EC although the middle column is favoured ( hard to avoid with 4 corner bets).

    I am really interested in reading cycle for duration of win/ loss outcomes and target playing with win cycles and stop loss for correction cycles.

    Also am interested in applying to the window provided together with safety stops and triggers, an approach to a short recovery progression.

    I suspect there are ideal durations of play less than 100 spins.

    Note though I overlay WF opportunities when they are in warming mode (1-4 targets only), and occasionally apply other clues. That the zero can be covered only to $100 means there needs to be a realistic cap on progressions to avoid  loss by error.

    I play with Zero as a parallel and independent Anchor Bet.

    Two recent sessions and analysis will follow.

    Offline XXVV

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    Re: MB 16
    « Reply #2 on: June 24, 2016, 04:26:17 am »
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  • Here are two sessions today on that table.

    My shorthand shows the number of spins to achieve a hit/ outcome. I try to avoid the outcome numbers over 4 which lead to corrective phases.

    34  hit
    22
    12 hit and start on a 2 outcome
    ---
    27
    36
    21
    10
    17  hit - jumped in without history context and got burned with a 5 outcome but I played through it taking a loss.
    ---
    34  hit
    31  hit
    2    hit
    6    hit  really loaded because you could see we are in part 17 and neighbours section of the wheel
    20  hit
    ----
               and stop to take profit after 5 consecutive 1 outcomes


    7
    14  (hit)  2
    ---
    33
    0
    29
    11  (hit) 4   and so on - I will show the full schedule of outcomes as play continued in virtual play mode

    In summary to date
    2
    ---
    5
    1
    1
    1
    1
    1
    ---
    2
    4
    3
    2
    1
    1
    3
    2
    7
    1
    3
    3
    4
    1
    2
    1
    3
    1
    2
    1
    3
    4
    3
    6
    2
    5
    1
    4
    1
    1
    1
    1
    1
    2
    3
    1
    1
    2
    2
    2
    1
    3
    1
    1
    4
    2
    3
    ----

    54 outcomes in all 120 spins average duration 2.2 spins overall average ( approx break even flat is just over 2 spins flat staking)

    using a moving window of 10 consecutive outcomes, worst average duration was 2.9 and best 1.7

    using a moving window of 5 outcomes, worst average was 3.6 and best 1.0

    flat staking ( used as a marker only)  -85 units and 5 zero hits flat staking +60 or +120 at double value units for cover


    Of course I recommend a step progression say 2,3,5,8 for the staking of the corners but probably a stop loss after third attempt as the decay distribution curve of outcomes falls away steeply ( of course this varies whether in a win cycle or corrective cycle).

    The intention of a moving window is to give some sort of warning signal and awareness of constraints/ parameters within which to play live.

    If after a stop loss, or worse several stop losses, how do you recover?

    That is where we will look into Martin Blakey mathematics later.

    Recall he tried to adapt and find best template ( choice of corner bets) to suit dealer signature or cyclic outcomes over say 100 -200 live spins in a session.

    Offline XXVV

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    Re: MB 16
    « Reply #3 on: June 24, 2016, 06:45:28 am »
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  • Here is another session on the same table later today.

    These are outcome cycles.

    +5 and climb on board anticipating win correction
    ----
    2
    1
    4
    1
    2
    1
    2
    1
    1  and take profit after  5 single spin outcomes in close succession .
    ----
    3
    2
    4
    1
    1
    -----

    good profit up +25% on RB

    Offline XXVV

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    Re: MB 16
    « Reply #4 on: June 24, 2016, 06:51:00 am »
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  • Here is another session from earlier today.  These are outcome cycles.

    6
    8
    2  okay signal to step in
    1
    2
    1
    1
    1   and take profit after 5 consecutive winning positions
    ----

    6
    3
    7
    2  and consider option to step in after correction cycle but instead observe on the fence

    3
    2
    1
    1
    2
    1  notice 5 consecutive strong winning positions
    5
    3
    ----




    Offline XXVV

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    Re: MB 16
    « Reply #5 on: June 24, 2016, 08:13:54 am »
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  • Another session this evening- even better.

    2
    ----  climb on
    2
    1
    2
    1
    3
    2
    2
    3
    -----  take profit  ( I was satisfied with 20% profit but look what followed) ...

    2
    1
    2
    1
    3
    3
    1
    2
    1
    1
    (3)
    ----

    This certainly was a winning cycle, and should have been milked.

    Offline XXVV

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    Re: MB 16
    « Reply #6 on: June 24, 2016, 10:17:55 pm »
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  • Yes as a cautionary tale, matching the debacle on the feed from London, the correction phase took a very heavy toll and the experimental play in which I try out ideas really crashed. It was more to do with not bet selection, but an aspect of money management, ie personal stop loss. Roulette deserves full attention in short bursts when appropriate - not a continuing battle which can cause heavy loss. Remember the strategic advice to quit and live to fight another day - strategic retreat.

    Never mind, here we are, another day, and I have a box of treasures to open. Made some significant recovery play very quickly.

    Offline Neutronbomb

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    Re: MB 16
    « Reply #7 on: June 27, 2016, 07:05:38 pm »
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  • Interesting stuff!!

    Offline XXVV

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    Re: MB 16
    « Reply #8 on: June 27, 2016, 09:29:10 pm »
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  • Lots more to add over next few days- will post several more new results and what I believe is a suitable way forward using steps, stop loss, and triggers to re-start at a new unit level using three opportunities to bet and if that fails stop and await win trigger, re-set to new unit value.

    Again it is important in order to save yourself a lot of grief to use a 'toe-in -the -water' approach, ie a virtual play test and observation of previous spins as context here is critical. Do not enter play amid a corrective phase.

    Offline XXVV

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    Re: MB 16
    « Reply #9 on: June 28, 2016, 08:08:54 am »
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  • Just on an informal and anecdotal basis the 'toe-in-the-water' approach adopted by some colleagues has been very helpful. One aspect of it adapted from my private bet is that if an initial application of the bet strikes strongly on say the first or second attempt ( flat staking) rather than a fourth or fifth attempt - if you continue that far- then this is a signal of either strong 'in phase' or weak 'out of phase'.

    Another way is to consider in virtual play the prior context and if prior applications were successful and quick in execution the signal is green to continue live.  If long and weak prior corrective phase even, then steer clear or wait and review 20 spins later or another table.

    Here is some initial result based on a 4 phase attack on 100 spins this evening on results from rouletteplayers.org table.

    As a new attack I am playing there under a new title, and setting aside previous experiments as being unsatisfactory. However this one is going very well and exclusively utilises MB16 but with refined money management.

    Last 100 spins took the RB from near 2000 units to 3029 units.

    Here is the outcome sequence and I will asterisk the tough passages.

    3
    2
    1
    1
    1
    1
    2
    2
    1
    1
    2
    1
    1
    1   a dream sequence and after say 10 such outcomes the player could say enough profit.

    8  **
    1
    1
    1
    6 **
    1
    1
    2
    2
    3
    6**
    1
    1
    5 **
    3
    1
    3
    2
    2
    1
    6 **
    2
    3
    4**
    1
    2
    ----- and cash up + 3029 units

    The early win streak gave 60% of the session profit but we start with conservative unit values in order to handle later stop progression.

    Key is to stop after 3 failed attempts and then re-start after the eventual hit on say 4,5,6 7 or more.

    Note in this session recoveries were simple and fast.

    More detail in next few days. Recall we started with 1000 unit RB and after 250 spins we are now at + 3029 units.

    Generally what I am attempting to do is 'recover'' ( all or close to all) after say a 4,5,6,7,8,9 or more where SL was 3, and when followed by a 1,2 or 3 that is sufficient to clear arrears.

    If the context is challenging, say

    5
    7
      then it would be wise to wait for a different context to resume, say

    5
    7
    ----  good idea to wait after (say) 2 x stop loss (SL), although my approach is designed to handle 5  7  9  2 but unwise to go to those limits
    (2)
    1
    3
    2
    1
    ---



    Offline from100

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    Re: MB 16
    « Reply #10 on: June 28, 2016, 10:20:50 am »
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  • Thanks for elaboration, XX!

    Should find time to get to the basics of this....

    Offline XXVV

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    Re: MB 16
    « Reply #11 on: June 29, 2016, 01:29:57 am »
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  • Here is the next tranche of outcomes based on spins from rouletteplayers.org table.

    By quoting outcomes I am transforming the mathematics into a useful form.

    Actual spins

    22
    12
    21
    36
    27
    2
    32
    26
    35
    9
    30
    29
    10
    11
    28
    29
    22
    11
    3
    25
    27
    26
    28
    3
    8
    11
    17
    26
    13
    22
    18
    18
    12
    14
    16  and close the session

    (9)
    (17) followed

    Outcomes
    2
    4
    1
    2
    5
    4
    1
    5
    2
    1
    6
    1
    1
    ---
    2
    ----  close session

    followed by

    5
    2
    1

    Recall we are playing fixed target corners but stop after 3 consecutive losses, re-starting after the win, and aiming by progressed steps to achieve recovery and profit.

    Corners are    2/6   11/15    16/20     31/35

    We will go into much more detail later as to when 'recovery' starts and also whether to achieve full or partial recovery after a loss.

    I refer to the stops and starts as phases and in my staking go to 4 or even 5 phases.

    In this session because corrections were mild I optimistically continued to drive for profit and was fortunate to achieve this.

    More work is necessary to make this a mechanical response and not partly subjective by reading the state of the win/ correction balance.

    In 14 outcomes the total spin usage was 37, so average was 2.7 spins per outcome which is quite high.

    Nevertheless we finished on +4051 units using 3 phases of attack.


    Offline XXVV

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    Re: MB 16
    « Reply #12 on: June 29, 2016, 08:42:24 am »
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  • Okay here we go.

    This is a difficult exploration as you will appreciate. Nevertheless there are some useful observations I can point out for you. This corner bet approach, especially when fixed, I quite like and admire because it ignores randomness and does not try to be too clever.

    It is a little bit Bet Selection (BS), but mostly Money Management (MM).

    To win consistently, ie to be a professional in roulette, requires many many qualities, some of which we will address here.

    To target 16 numbers is quite smart because it means we approach near 50% chance of appearance, but as we know from EC bets a sleep can occur for 25 spins ( equivalent to 25 x 16 non appearances or 400 spins). An individual number can sleep to this level in very very extreme situations also of course. By contrast we also know an individual number can repeat 5 times, maybe more, and I have witnessed this twice and I know a young Dealer at the adjacent casino who achieved this.

    These are the extreme outlier events and most roulette experience falls well within quite simple and acceptable parameters.

    For example with the corner bets I am advocating here some of which were used by Martin Blakey, a remarkably consistent 2/3 spins outcomes occur with 1 and 2 spin spaces.

    Here is the distribution chart of 200 outcomes - remember an outcome is the number of spins required to hit one of the 16 numbers targeted by the 4 corner bets.  This has been based on recent sampling I have done on the roulettplayers.org table data in about ten sessions attended over the past 5 days.

    200 outcomes

       1    2    3     4     5    6    7    8    9    10

      79   48   29  22    6     8     5     1     1     1


    note  63.5%  outcomes ( say 2/3 or 66%)  occur with 1 and 2 spin outcomes

    note especially however that it may be smart to take the 1 to 4 spin outcome spread which accounts for 90% of all sequence

    my future play will utilise the 4 spin spread as a trap bet

    Offline XXVV

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    Re: MB 16
    « Reply #13 on: June 29, 2016, 09:11:38 am »
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  • I have had several long sessions this afternoon and the current RB stands at +20,600 units.

    This account size was deliberately built using aggressive staking and some private bet opportunities as I want to experiment with bet efficiency and MM from a 20,000 RB basis.

    As these are inside table bets these could be held as 0.10 EUR and thus need not be more than a 2000 EUR RB

    Progressions or part progression play does require a larger RB than flat staking but the aim here , although controversial, and contradicting most of what I do, is to accelerate earnings and to attempt to access say at least 1000 units every session less than 100 spins.

    After so much of what I do that involves 'reading' the game and being so smart and so selective, this approach ignores prediction and adjustment (in some cases but with a notable exception) and simply uses MM as the main harvester.

    Now the exception and one major difference however and one way to leverage an edge is to know when to play live and when to stop and monitor in virtual mode. This is not complex and the following flow chart of outcomes from today will illustrate my point.

    2
    2
    4
    2
    10
    2
    3
    3
    1  ( window of 10 outcomes averages 3.1 - very high)
    2
    3
    2
    4
    2
    1
    1
    3
    3
    3  window averages 2.4
    1
    1
    1
    1
    2
    1
    7
    6
    6
    1  window averages 2.7  and note the dangerous 7 6 6 passage
    1
    2
    4
    4
    1
    3
    1
    2
    2
    2  window averages 2.2
    4
    1
    3
    7
    3
    9
    2
    1
    1
    1  window averages  3.2
    1
    1
    2
    1
    2

    Several patterns to observe here. Note how the corrective passages cluster.  Note the decay curve for the distribution of winning bet types where 1 is by far the most plentiful. In fact 1 outcomes account for about 40% of all outcomes. There fore it is no surprise that very very often a 1 outcome will follow a prior outcome.  In the flow above this happens 10 times and fails 9 times. It usually has a winning edge if played as a game within a game, and of course can be simply stepped and played at very high unit value without excessive risk exposure.

    Run your own small, medium and large test samples and try this out. In my experience it works at all scales.

    I played to accumulate the RB fund quite aggressively and took extreme risks which I do not recommend. The purpose was to access a substantial test bank.

    By observing the moving average ( window of prior ten outcomes) this may give guidance but steer clear where possible of clusters of outcomes 5 or larger. They are like storm clouds and best not to fly in them. Instead try to keep to clear skies and accumulate 1 and 2 outcomes which cluster.

    To obtain up to 7 in a streak is enough, and correction my soon follow, so use your radar intuition - it will work more and more with practice. If you get into trouble it may be better to write off a small loss, or achieve a part recovery, and that can be re-activated in a subsequent passage of play where skies are clearer.

    Offline XXVV

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    Re: MB 16
    « Reply #14 on: June 29, 2016, 09:15:37 am »
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  • My earlier play looked at using phases of 3 step play, but on the basis of the 200 outcome sample I will increase this to a 4 step play, and introduce a recovery phase using a progression once we extend beyond 4 steps. This is where we can start to draw upon the experience of Martin Blakey and his students. Use that 90% to your advantage, and as he stated, there will be sessions where you may encounter streaks always within the 1-4 window.

    Further ideas will follow over the weekend ahead.