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[BEAT-THE-WHEEL]

HARSH,EXTREME-VARIANCE,& WITHIN EXPECTATION.

Gentlemen,
Seems that some members here,
are too PRE-occupied,
with HARSH,
and EXTREME-negative variance!

[and how to risk a huge bundle,
to tackle them, when they hit...
which are highly difficult to play,
in BM casino,
consider,
placing up to 20, 30, 50,
even 100chips at a time????]
===================

Instead we should tackle , by
SURRENDER TO the UNAVOIDABLE,

and,
EXPLOIT THE POSITIVE TO HILT.

and ACCEPT,
what must happen,
with different angle and strategy.

Say,
in the next 20spins,
of betting SINGLE dozen.
THREE scenario may happen....

1]HIT within-expectation.
which is the "usual happenning".
[where single hit around 1/3.]

2]EXTREME-positive-variance-trait.
which is "god-sent"...
but do happen frequently...
[where single hit > 2/3.]


3]EXTREME-NEGATIVE-variance-trait.
which some call HARSH session,
and seems that some try to beat them,
with suicidal staking!
[where single hit  <1/6.]

IMHO,
I think,
we should TAKE advantage,
to the HILT.
of
1]within-expectation session.

2]POSITIVE -variance session.

And cut loss, only lose the intended BR,
when unavoidable HARSH hit!

Say,
if we RISKED,
X amount of BR,
per session,
and since,
we can't predict future,
thus we WAIT,
for a LOSING-HARSH session,
to passed,
thus reduced the risk.
and we start to bet,
and we may faced the three scenario.

1]within expectation.
2]Extreme-POSITIVE variance.
3]Extreme-NEGATIVE variance.

and...
this should happen...

1]When within expectation, hit...
We try to double the X risked.

2]When Extreme-POSITIVE variance, hit...
We try to double the X risked.

3]When Extreme-NEGATIVE variance hit....
We ONLY lose,
ALL,
the X risked.

This the concept of winning more
than the FIXED-cut-losses, amount.

and FIXED cut losses,
and target profit,
thus in long run,
with the EXPECTATION,
of win/lose RATIO,
of sessions...
we still win.


In an OVER-SIMPLIFIED,
naive,example...

When we bet, say, 100chips...,
bet single dozen,

the next three scenario will hit..

1]within expectation.

we win,
=100chips target.

2]Extreme-POSITIVE variance.

we win,
=100chips target.

3]Extreme-NEGATIVE variance.

we LOSE ALL=-100chips...

Thus after, 9sessions,
we win,
+600chips,
and lose,
-300chips,
thus net,
=+300chips.

That an OVER-SIMPLIFIED naive example,
so you understand what I mean.

===============
The million dollar question,
is...
we should have a strategy,
that win double our BR when,

EXTREME-POSITIVE-variance, hit!,

and

WITHIN EXPECTATION spins, hit!,


and ONLY-LOSE,
the single-sessions-BR,
when ..
"unavoidable-EXTREME-NEGATIVE variance",
hit!

and a reliable,
WIN/LOSE RATIO,
of sessions risked.
[extreme-positive/negative/within-expectation RATIO]



What you think???

[BEAT-THE-WHEEL]

In LONG run,
Everything will succumb,
to math expectation,
BUT,
in short RUN,
its NOT,

one of THREE conditions,
will hit...

1]within math expectation,
2]POSITIVE extreme variance,
3]NEGATIVE extreme variance.

Take a look at your data,
and your own
favorite bet-selection,
see yourself,
HOW many time,
you selection,
will hit HARSH,
extreme negative run,
where it just IMPOSSIBLE to win?!


and how many time,
it a BREEZE, to win,
and you wonder why you not
EXPLOIT them to hilt???

BUT the MOST importance,
is their RATIo!

How many times,
what the RATIOS???
the
positive/negative/within-expectation,
RATIO?

and how,
you going to
win MORE
than the
FIXED
cut losses,

with the RATIO?

[greenguy]

Well wouldn't that be nice.