Press To Our Win /Never Stand Still (1st in a series)

My beliefs:

If one utilizes a fast pospro and compounding then one will bust their buyin more frequently (vs flat bet or slower pospro/and smaller or no compounding) , though will have greater potential for very large wins (>=buyin), along with consolation prizes of smaller, yet meaningful sizes. 

Be Aware: This could require some heavy lifting as one carries their bags of loot /stacks of banded 100s out of the casino. 

 

 

WARNING: The following is not recommended for women, children, or small men.

 

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In future posts I will address and clarify some of the following in specific threads (if there is enough interest). Addressing individually or in small grouping of like topics may help us discuss in more detail.  Hopefully, some of my thoughts will spur an idea or two for all parties so that we can help each other's game. I'm constantly striving to improve my game each day. 

Re: Pospro

My main premise on Positive Progressions:

Pr1% >=Pr2%>=Pr3% (Read : As a function of my base (or initial bet in that series:

Press One percentage greater or equal to PressTwo percentage greater or equal to PressThree percentage, ....etc.

This premise is obviously based on the thought:

I will win: 1iar >2iar >3iar (Read: I will win One In A Row, more often then Two In A Row, more often then Three In A Row ) . This applies regardless of if one is betting all wagers in the same streak or across events or across shoes. 

Though the above may seem overly simplistic and obvious I find it important that we press(or regress) along a smooth and predetermined curve that is fitted to hit our >=target.

*Compounding is our friend and an important ally for winning.

*Compounding is often ignored, misunderstood, or simply not utilized most efficiently by many players.

*One can compound (or spin off) a % greater than house edge (HE) with minimal risk to buyin. I'm not saying change HE(as its written in), I'm simply saying we can neutralize some or all of the buyin erosion from HE.  I will discuss various formulas and % to achieve this. IMO we should have varied % progressions as a function (Fx) of where we are in that streak and the current ratio to our win, buyin, and bankroll. As well as where we are going with that wager. One should always know where that wager will be (3-5 wagers from now if pospro) and what will be next bet if this wager loses right here. As well as how many bets (and sizes) will I need to make up this current deficit. 

 

*Some players that do utilize compounding often use it against themselves with greater force (compound their losses against their own buyin) yet will not compound into a winning streak of a similar probability. IMO its perfectly fine to do both(a pospro/negpro) just understand the speed(acceleration) of each and its effect on our buyin.

 However, one should be willing to implement the pospro with the same zealousness as the negpro. In other words (IOW), if one is willing to live and die with a pospro then one mustn't kill said pospro when it does reach its higher ranges. One absolutely must be unafraid to win and win big. REMINDER: One isn't required to kill the pressed-up-wager just because we think that event is nearing the end. Nor are we required to kill it because it's the end of the shoe, or we have hit table max(Tmax)...etc. I see players on an almost daily basis battle a shoe(s) in a deficit, and finally claw their way back to even or slightly ahead and: "color coming in". We should never end anything when on an uptick---Its ok to end a shoe without betting to the end of a W streak. If hesitant just set that pressed-up wager aside for later compounding and finish current W streak at >= 1.0 base unit, or no bet.

 

     *That's one thing I admire about negpro bettor's vs pospro as its my observation that negpro players are dogmatic and without much hesitation will push out that final (and potentially buyin-ending wager) on that final tier. On the other hand, I frequently watch my fellow pospro bettors "chicken out" even when the majority of the wager size is the casinos own money.

*I primarily utilize a positive progression(pospro) with compounding to achieve my wins. I generally combine a fast/efficient pospro with a slower negpro when on the unavoidable L streaks. My goal is to strive to get on the casinos' monies asap in my exchange of Ws/Ls. My perception is that I perform more optimally by using both(negpro/pospro). I ponder at times if I could win consistently without the power of compounding. 

*Compounding can be utilized to compound bet-to-bet(I.e., increase the wager size as its winning), bet-to-buyin(increase buyin as a function (%) of net bet wins, and bet-to-buyin-to bankroll simultaneously. (All three).

*A players aversiveness to risk ones whole buyin is inversely (or close to it) proportional to one's unwillingness to win ones >=buyin.  We should always strive to win >=buyin or at least >=50% of buyin (if we are willing to give them a chance at our whole buyin). I find that even when I don't reach a large win goal, I often still hit a small or moderate W by striving for that loftier objective.

*Pressing (and regressing) is most efficient when compounding is along a smooth curve (visually if observing along a graph curve). If not on a smooth incremental curve, then we are incorporating a "timing or guessing effect" and our wins or losses will be mostly due to "if" we guess correctly at the perfect moment.

*RE: Never Stand Still*. It's my opinion we should never stand still regardless of if doing a pospro , negpro, and or regression as one should always be looking to improve our current standing with any single win, even if it's only a $5 improvement (*with the exception of making sure  >50% of losing wagers are at 1.0 base unit). 

Thus, my theory it's easier to win with a larger base unit (due to the $5 min increment). Sometimes this can be too much at a lower base unit. E.G.,  If one's min bet at their home casinos is low (say $25, which is smallest I've observed since covid, at my casinos)  I would recommend betting at least a couple increments ($10=2 increments) above that minimum, and if your budget allows try to wager a base unit much larger. Contrary to what many think it's easier to win with a larger base bet size. 

*If one is afraid to win (or win big—meaning >=buyin or as a minimum >½ buyin)then a pospro and utilization of a compounding scheme is not recommended. 

*A pospro bettor utilizing a compounding regime can also utilize a regressing regime (compounding back into their stack) and or start charging the casino a vig(or Commish). Either way (compounding or decompounding) should be implemented along a smooth curve vs an erratic emotion-driven ratio)

*Utilizing a pospro and compounding regime to our win is much the same as driving a car and trying to reach our destination as quickly/ efficiently as possible. It is imperative to have a very clear plan with predetermined objective(s).

1) Do I want to travel from point A to point B as quickly as possible while ignoring fuel usage (chips –buyin). Do I have more than just one objective in this race?

2) Is this a race? In other words, is there a bonus for reaching my destination as soon as possible? Is there a speed limit? Is there a limit on how many tries I will likely get? Is there a max speed limit? What is my optimal speed to reach  ""{MY}""  destination or win goal. 

3) Is my time allowed to reach my destination limited? What happens if I have poor mpg "run out of fuel(chips)" before reaching my destination? Do I have more fuel? How much fuel am I willing to use to reach my destination. Is my fuel cost greater then what I win when I do reach my destination? How often will I reach my destination (on avg) with this predetermined amount of gas in the tank? Do I need more gas at the beginning of trip so that I don't get stranded >50% of my trips?

4. What is the optimal speed and or average speed to reach my destination as efficiently as possible. Would a turbo booster at times help with my objective and reaching my destination in a timely manner. When is the best time to push the button on the turbo?

5. I find it important when driving our pospro/compounding car that we don't change directions more than once. IOW, It is most important to utilize momentum while accelerating our vehicle. It would not be efficient use of our time and fuel if we accelerated toward our destination, then suddenly slammed on the breaks at say 50mph and slowed back down to 25 mph, then accelerated again back up to >50mph. Same with betting: If one must regress(and nothing wrong with slowing our acceleration), then continue slowing down at the remaining change-of-speed stages.  Just make sure we originally reached a high enough speed that even though we are slowing down (or even cruising) we still have enough momentum to reach our destination. When changing directions more than once we just gave back our speed gained from the earlier momentum. 

 

My greattttt Uncle Confucius once told me: "Grasshopper, It's not about how fast you win, it's how well you win fast."

 

 

Continued Success to All,

Probably one of the best post about MM ever.

Looking forward to get more on that 

as.

Thank you AsymBacGuy.
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Bac Money Management

In the following I will present my personal thoughts/preferences for MM of my buyin. I will try to avoid some very important and related subtopics from this very broad subject:MM. They too are part of my overall game but will i sidestep these other areas of MM so I don't make a long post longer.

To my thinking MM is extremely important and that along with the above subtopics must "fit" ones "own" overall gameplan. All the parts must fit together like a glove so our money (each wager) can work as a team (buy in) and not as separate individuals.  Just like a basketball, soccer, or football team. If one player (wager) is performing poorly we need another to overperform. 

 

Most importantly and first/foremost. Identify your win goal for this buyin and this buyin only, and every single action we take must be in pursuit of that goal.

 

As I've mentioned in previous posts most of my casinos only have one or two tables and often the only option is $50--$2K Tmax.  A couple offer 25—1K, and a couple $50/100--$5K, and a couple Cas offer 10K Tmax . Though the 5K is often only on Fri/Sat night and very seldom during the week or days. The 10K tables are 6.5 hours away so not relevant for most of my daily play.

Thus, my methodology is based on the 50—2000 table unless stated otherwise. Any variation and I simply raise (or lower) the Buyin and base unit proportional to Tmax at the respective table.

So, my buyin is 2K and I make my base unit $60. If at a 100—5K table buyin/base unit (150) is proportional and so forth.

I like my BU (base unit) at increments of 60 (I.e. 120,150,180,240,...etc)because its an easy metric for some of my wagering regimes, compounding, and fractional betting scales ( 1,½,1/3,¼,1/5, et al). More on this fractional betting later on when I speak about compounding along a smooth curve.

The selection of a buyin for $2k at a 2K Tmax table, and $60 base unit is mainly due to my theseis: The max I can win on any one W is $2K and the max the casino will ever win from me in any one shoe is 2K.  Though it will take the Cas more than one win and often at least three or more consecutive bad shoes to extract that from me. 

My modus operandi. How can I most efficiently win >= my buyin >=once PRIOR to the casino winning my buyin <=once, when I run across several consecutive bad shoes.

This brings me to my next topic (How I handle bad shoes), and a very important part of my M.O. 

The next paragraph is one of the main attributes of my overall game. This is one of my best moves as I seek to limit my losing shoes/sessions and win on the upper end knowing my losses can only go to –0--. In other words I want my losses on  the really bad shoes (say –3 SD) to be <= to my losses on the reallyreallyhorriblebad shoes (say –4.5SD) as I will be busted and not be around that shoe when and if it ever does approach a 

Variance of (-4.5SD, -6sd,-8Sd,...etc.). I also know I will also see shoes in my favor (+2 , to +3SD, to +4.5SD,...etc.). So set limits on my downside and never ever try to tame the Variance (or volatility) on the upside. We shall see both regardless of one's skill set. It does not matter if one is doing progression, regression, flat bet, or anything else we want to call it.

 It's my opinion winning (or losing) with a progression compared with a regression or with a flat bet , or any other has more to do with one's tolerance for volatility than it has to do with a person's statistical capacity to win money.  If one has an advantage greater than the H.E. (most of you do), then we want as much money as we possible wagered as often as we can. I'm not talking about being a gunslinger and just slinging bets of all shapes/sizes without a focused goal in mind.

 

 

How I handle bad shoes: My Best Move.

     When I bust a buyin (regardless of if in one shoe or three or more) I do the following. I force a dry smile and state to my table comrades: "Good luck everyone sees you in a little while". That's nothing else.

I stand up, scoot my chair in, remove any water bottles, and start walking away. As I walk away, I take my R hand and reach over my L shoulder to give myself two pats on the back. WHY? 

I congratulate myself for not going on tilt and limiting my loss on a very bad shoe to <=1 buyin. I have never (n-e-v-e-r) rebought into a lost-buyin shoe the second time. I simply note how long until a new shoe will be opened at that table or any other table nearby and take 10-15mins to go to restroom, walk around, ...etc. THEN, I go to the cage and get another buyin and look for a table (even the previous one) that is prepping to open a new shoe.

 

 

Exchanges:

We are constantly "exchanging" Ws/Ls streaks with the casino: WLWWLLWLLLWWWLWWWWW,..etc.

Winning and losing is all about the order. Regardless of the order of my W/L I want to be slightly better (moving toward my Win Goal) with each W at the end of these exchanges of L series. If Im losing (LLLW) I want that W to put my stack in a better position than prior to its commencement. Example: -60,-60,-60,then win @ +65= Net –115. That $5 may seem miniscule. However, that is 5/60 =.083 ,   or another way of viewing is if  I lost 3iar =180 so 5/180= .0277 . Recall H.E. is approx .012 . So, in the above exchange the Cas did not receive its full compensation. Nor did that measly $5 jeopardize my buy in.

Same with a win streak of WWWL or any other variation of W/Ls. I never stand still (meaning I don't flat bet with 0 fluctuations on steaks of W or L), and after another 3:1 or 1: 3 , streak I want more in my stack vs prior to when this exchange started.

My M.O. is to do an aggressive Pos pro and slow negpro as I attempt to "nick" away at the Cas win/ compound my streak of winning series. We will see W/L streaks both the same as forum alumni albalaha has diligently told us.  I concur.

 

 

Press-To-Our-Win

*I will preface the following paragraphs with: I'm constantly monitoring my stacks, so I always know if Im below even or ahead and by how much. Though I never wager less than my base unit I know I can't get ahead until I get even. I never wager less than my base unit as I don't want to be in a position where I need more Ws than Ls to be even. If I'm ahead I still wager at least my BU. I strive to keep more than 50% of my L wagers near my base unit.  One way I do this is to not start a pospro if I'm in a signif deficit or let's say I haven't won very many wagers yet, or maybe I lost my first 3-4 wagers and then finally get a W. . I don't start a pospro if I just lost three and won one. Im still in a losing streak, not in sync with outcomes yet, and simply stumbled onto a W. 

Striving to keep Ls at or near base unit. This an easy task and I'm fairly good at this. Meaning we are likely to lose approx ½  of our wagers the first time they are wagered. So, approx  50% of first-time wagers never get out of the gate. 

     

     My goal is  press to my win. Meaning I press through the win. I do not press a couple times, stand still a couple times, reduce $5, add $5, wait until I collect at this or that level, start pressing again and after a 10streak of consecutive Ws Im almost even.  W streaks are difficult to come by and IMO a pospro player must press early and often(meaning press something every single   time, even if only $5)).   

The pospro bettors' success is determined by what we are doing on wager#1 and wager#2 and press#1 as everything out a say t + Wager#4/#5 and the compounding spinoff, is largely determined by what we were doing at Press#1. WHY?

My personal view is as follows and I think all will agree with the obvious on wins in a row:

We will win 1iar >= win 2iar >= win3iar>= win 4iar >= win 5iar ...etc.

 

So IMO: We should make Press#1% >= Press #2% >= Press#3% >= Press#4% >=Press#5%, ...etc.

 

*Reminder: When doing a pospro remember we will need two more Wins to be where we are right now (regarding net W monies). So, I'm not suggesting never ever stop doing a pospro. Im just saying get to where your going as fast/efficiently as possible. Then if one must do a stutter step, or regress , just make sure one always handles this stage the same way (throughout the whole buyin). 

Re: changing directions. Regressing is a fine tool, however, I'm against changing directions more than once such as presspresspresspressRegressPresspress, ...etc (See car example in earlier post above). Also,  I would want to make sure that peak wager was as a minimum sufficiently above our "avg" wager size (and optimally >=50% of buyin size or we have a net >50% BI), prior to changing directions. At least get to our predetermined win goal (even if < 50%BI, whatever yours may be). Mainly, be consistent with this through the whole shoe and that buyin.

 

Re:

Press#1% >= Press #2% >= Press#3% >= Press#4% >=Press#5%, ...etc.

I like everything after my base bet to be a function of that base bet size (unless one wants to implement an exponential press regime—which I will talk about later if enough interest). The point I'm trying to make is don't change our gameplan (and goal) at mid game.

An example of the above press regime and why I either start or make my wager quickly get to an increment of 60. For example, let's say at a 50min table I had wagered a base unit $55 I would likely just press to 120, ...etc. So any future presses could follow a smooth curve.

I like the starting series to be an increment of 60(LCD for 1,2,3,4,5,6), and because of the ease in wagering a fractional press with more precision in the early stages.

Examples:

Let's say I start with a base bet of 60 and win. Looking above I see press#1% >=press#2%. Therefore, I wouldn't lead with a press of $5 as I would be locked into never pressing more than $5 (and since I like to press something on every W, I don't want to limit my pressing options). So,

Let's say I press 100%: Bet 1=60, bet 2=120, (See rules above) so I know bet 3 must press but can't press > than but could press =% the first press. I could press to 240 but let's say I'm ahead in this shoe, hit my win goal,  so I shall press 50%. So now :bet1=60,bet2 was 120, bet 3=150(+50% of my base unit=$30), I win this 3rd bet IAR and my net-to-my-stack so far on this initial investment of $60 is:  +90,+150,=+240, and I still have a $150 wager and "my option" as to what I do with it. Note I didn't collect anything on first hit(nemesis).

I will press ($20 which is 33% of my base unit—Not a function of the current wager size), so my next wager would be $170. So as we can see the wager is getting larger/larger, with my addendum monies getting smaller/smaller fast.   

I view each wager as "what is my investment in this wager, what is casinos investment in this wager, and what is my potential win. I want the casino to be invested >50% ASAP as I'm willing to let them win that last wager. However, I want them to be mostly winning their own money back "AFTER" they have paid me several times on my initial investment as well as their initial investment. I don't have to let them win that final bet, however, IMO we have our investment out of it. Furthermore, after that 3rd hit the final press anywhere on down the line where we would lose has been generated by the earlier compounds. 

*Note: When I speak of Win streaks seldom do I mean consecutive wins on one event ( same side, opps, ..etc) as I find longer W streaks by catching a couple here, setting it aside, and jumping into another event, or shoe, or casino, as I keep that Winning wager going as long as possible. I also caution you again  not to change your gameplan midstream. That is,  don't win several times like above (& press in a decreasing%), and after 5-6 wins go "WTH" Im ahead so I shall parlay the whole thing and see what happens---We just gave back all our compounds if it loses as the casino negates each level with one single W. My thinking is to play in the short term but know we are playing a long term game. 

 

My main premise is to press in a methodical manner so that press curve(if plotting on a graph) is a smooth curve and not jagged. You can design whatever decreasing angle of curve you want but if we make it jagged then we are making it all about timing (pulling it down or press big) at just the right time. I find the above very efficient as it gets our money out quick yet keeps that wager growing. 

 

The main metrics I keep in my mind's eye as I go through a shoe:

Buyin, ½ buyin, 20% of buyin, base unit size, , press%, win goal, H.E. Everything I do is designed with these objectives at the forefront. 

*Im not saying I always press exactly as shown above. However, regardless if doing something like above or an exponential regime, et al,  the following is always the underlying foundation.

Press#1% >= Press #2% >= Press#3% >= Press#4% >=Press#5%, ...etc.

 

Most importantly press so that you hit "Your" target more often than not. I recommend utilizing our whole buyin--Exhaust your buyin. In other words use the full force of your buyin in our battle with the casino. A mistake I made early on is that I would unknowingly or unintentionally utilize only about 30-40% of buyin yet try to win a substantial amount. I had a very high winning-shoe %, yet seldom won > half my buyin(though risking 100% of BI),  and or I sliced/diced myself to a loss trying to protect my buyin.

 

When I lose a buyin(and I do ), I want the casino to know they have been in a battle/ they had to fight me tooth/nail to extract it from me. So when that casino CEO looks down from his windowed office and sees us entering the casino. We want him to say: 

"Oh Sheat!".

 

 

Continued Success To All,

Thanks KFB!
I agree you are not the exact person every casino would be glad to get at their bac tables.

A lot of stuff to be digested, I need some time to possibly make some questions.

Cheers

as.