A friend sent me this list. I wasn't surprised to see Bac in the top ten.  A little surprised to see sports betting in 3rd place. Though I don't know much about sports betting. I would have guessed Pai Gow Tiles would be a little higher, especially if evaluated as decisions per hour along with H.E..

In my opinion some games would likely be a little higher ranking if the criteria was how much one would lose by time played. As mentioned above slower-decision games such as Pai Gow Tiles may fair better. Games such as Craps line bets that are often calculated as average decisions for bet to get resolved will sometimes not be resolved for several hands (or often the first hand), so in my opinion they should be evaluated for these top ten lists on a per roll(or hand) basis.

What is your opinion? Any thoughts?

The orig author indicated the main selection criteria focused on:

Ratio of amount of money the player can expect to lose -to- total amount of money wagered, including subsequent wagers like doubling in blackjack, raising in ultimate texas holdem,...etc. Optimum strategy and only base bets.



List in order 10--1:

10.Mississippi Stud
Roulette
Baccarat
Pai Gow Tiles
Spanish 21
Blackjack
Ultimate Texas Holdem
Sports Betting
Video Poker
Craps



Orig author M. Shackleford


Continued Success,

Reference Lists.  Lists are general as well as specific to any one source or concern. 

What applies to the Bellagio will be different to say a casino in the Midwest.  What applies to/from a mathematical statistical expert taking published house edges, etc., and multiplying those will be specific for a purpose of generalization. 

As well a casino that has 25 or so Baccarat tables will place bac a heck of a lot higher than another game on the same list, that rates higher than bac for a different casino.

And so on........

Interesting thread Kfb!

I agree with Al: there's a lot more than the HE to be considered before seating at a table or in front of a screen.

I'll make my comments on that next Sunday

Have a nice weekend!

as.

As you wrote:  " Ratio of amount of money the player can expect to lose -to- total amount of money wagered, including subsequent wagers like doubling in blackjack, raising in ultimate texas holdem,...etc. Optimum strategy and only base bets."

Most importantly IMO, to use those figures you would have to be hell-bent on playing your session a very very long time.

As we have discussed, there are no mathematical stats that can apply to a section here or there and a shoe or two or three. 

Why?  Because there are huge variance, gaps and related events that come into play that are irregular and without measurable consistency points that happen.  Depending on the way we play, we might make huge money or lose huge money when those irregular events happen. 

And they happen frequently. 

Those are just personal comments maybe way less technical than those of Shackleford authority had made.

First, only video poker, blackjack and many baccarat side bets can be beaten mathematically but only baccarat side bets can be attacked just in the favourable circumstances, so here every bet is EV+ taken individually.

We can conclude that the best profitable games, math besides, are those where we can bet whenever we want choosing the side we wish without losing anything (EV- spots) along the process.

Besides math, probably sports betting is the best 'game' to risk the money at, but we do not know anything about the subject.

We do know that in rare occasions some video poker machines are EV+ as a Royal Flush is payed more than expected by the odds. Yet is a very looooong diluted accomplishment...

Actually blackjack is beatable just in theory as too many profitable factors should happen for the player: a deep deck penetration, good rules, low casino's heat, etc.

Among the games where we can anytime choose to bet or not (in our opinion a decisive factor) there are roulette and craps.

Live unbiased roulettes aren't beatable by any means but automated roulettes do are unless a RRS is added to the spins production.
A single software trying to reproduce randomness acts stupidly (so it's beatable) but whenever two distinct softwares converge into the single spin production...well no way to beat the game.
An additional factor endorsing the partial unrandomness of automated wheel spins (as long as RRS isn't added) is the low bouncing/splattering ball's effect way more branded at live roulettes.

I'll continue later

as.

Craps is supposed to be the prototype of  unbeatable randomness, actually it isn't.
It doesn't matter that pass line and don't pass line sometimes allow 100x or close to infinite odds after the point has been made (almost nullifying the HE at such bets).

I've already presented some approaches about multiple consecutive shooters pass lines limits and some 'freerolling' situations after a first obstacle is surpassed.
Moreover a long study has shown that the no field/field proposition tend to be somewhat 'shooter dependent' in the sense that the 20/16 proposition provides slight but interesting discrepancies with the expected values.
Obviously just the field bet is bettable anytime we wish.

Mississippi Stud, Ultimate Texas Hold'em and Pai Gow all consider cards dealt by a machine and there's no option to choose the side to bet.
Pai Gow tiles are dealt by the dealer's dice roll destiny so the point is the same.

For practical reasons, 'no side bets' baccarat is by far and without any shadow of doubt the best game to make money in a casino for the old features we're stressing about for years:

- There are only three outcomes to take care of and one is almost always worthless but harmless (tie), HE is minimal.

- We can choose the side to bet anytime we want

- Baccarat productions are asymmetrical by definition, but they are no 'one-sided'.

- Baccarat is a game where 'irregular' (Alrelax word) successions come out quite often and we get at least eight sides to follow through (big road and derived roads)

- Baccarat is a game where players are considered just pure losing clowns both by casinos and  gambling 'experts'.

- At baccarat we can bet any possible amount (up to 100k or 200k or more per hand) being promptly payed without the risk to wait as money (chips) talk.

- Baccarat is the only game where an educated estimation of 'luck' or 'bad luck' of the other players could play a role in our winning or losing process as additional random walks come out in play. We know this is just another Gambler Fallacy, that's why I've mentioned it.

So my list is (from best to worst):

1) Baccarat

2) Side bets baccarat

3) Sports betting

4) Automated roulettes without the RRS tool

5) Craps

6) Anything else

as.

BTW, RRS= random rotor speed (rotor will randomly change its speed after the ball was launched)

as.

Good thoughts and comments everyone.

The original author stated his primary objective for his ranking:

"The orig author indicated the main selection criteria focused on:

Ratio of amount of money the player can expect to lose -to- total amount of money wagered, including subsequent wagers like doubling in blackjack, raising in ultimate texas holdem,...etc. Optimum strategy and only base bets."

So based on his prerequisite I have no reason to disagree with his ranking for that exact criteria. Some of the games he lists I've never played so I don't have an opinion.

I do think some games such as sports betting (NFL football teasers) wagered during the season and not post season may provide some opportunities for an advantaged wager with a fair payout.

alrelax:
"there are no mathematical stats that can apply to a section here or there and a shoe or two or three.

Why?  Because there are huge variance, gaps and related events that come into play that are irregular and without measurable consistency points that happen.  Depending on the way we play, we might make huge money or lose huge money when those irregular events happen. "

I concur.

asymbacguy:
"Besides math, probably sports betting is the best 'game' to risk the money at, b"

    I agree and think there is some potential for the patient punter that is willing to wait for the best wager in the (good,better,best) scenario. Especially if one has casino access to wager as soon as lines come out, ...etc..

Asymbacguy:

"Among the games where we can anytime choose to bet or not (in our opinion a decisive factor) there are roulette and craps.

Live unbiased roulettes aren't beatable by any means but automated roulettes do are unless a RRS is added to the spins production."

    Until the past couple years I had never met a long-term successful roulette player. I always just walked faster as I approached the roulette wheel and all I could see in my mind's eye was "-5.26%" ,lol.
Bottomline: I just can't bring myself to choose an even-chance wager at 18/38 when I can find games @ 18/36. Maybe there's something to it that I'm not considering. I could see maybe selecting the most hot 11 or 12 inside numbers with some sort of trigger,...etc. We don't know what we don't know so maybe the hardcore rouletters know something I don't. They most certainly know more than I do.

Asymbacguy:
"For practical reasons, 'no side bets' baccarat is by far and without any shadow of doubt the best game to make money in a casino for the old features we're stressing about for years:"

YES SIR