Link is at bottom.
 
When 2.3% Is Terrifying: A Gambler's Guide To The Asteroid Apocalypse.

I found this a good read(as it relates to probablility and gambling). I also think the more one games the more we look at the "non-casino" games of life from a probability stance(or we should)
.
Most of real life worry is generated/based on "perceived" fear and the probability of  bad happening(vs the % of bad NOThappening).

Especially in the way commercials are presented. Many misconstrue the probability of something happening. We should view as what is the probability of that event NOThappening. Notice the weather forcasters(30% of snow), which should be viewed as 70% NOTsnow.

Notice the pharmaceutical TV commercials as they always present their pitch based on a tiny fear of (disease, death, pain,..etc), therefore one should take our RX (just-in-case). Often the side effects(in the fine print) are worse than having a little discomfort for a couple days. Plus one may never catch that diesease, symptom, pain,..etc).


Re: The asteroid apocalypse.
We shouldn't worry too much (or any) until it gets within a year of time distance before striking. We could then predict with great precision "If" and more importantly "Where" it would potentially land.
Obviously, one could easily rule out greater than 50% of the earths surface. Plus about 1/3 of the potential surface would be water(ocean ,lake, river,..etc). So likely a nonissue.
 Maybe it lands in a field(no harm),...etc. Plus its only the size of a football field(Sounds big but... What is that % ratio to the available land surface,..etc). So even if it is projected to land in a populated areas I think we could tell the folks to vacate for a few hours,...etc.
So the potential catastrophe will likely be very very small(if it even hits earth). Yet Im sure the media will yammer on and on to infinitum as it approaches.

Any thoughts???


https://www.casinoreports.com/probability-asteroid-understanding-gambling/