With A 1.15% H.E. Why Is Casino Hold  @ Baccarat ~~ 13%--25% Most Months??

Bac Hold %

Hi KFB!

- horrible MM
- starting to desperately trying to get the Money back by wagering side bets
- Betting side bets no matter what
- Betting huge after losing and conservatively while winning

What's your opinion?

as.

It is this simple.  What the house holds from each game has nothing to do with the long term average H.E. 

A whale could dump multi millions in a weekend.  Hundreds of players will lose in a night, while considerably fewer win and cash out. 

I was extremely close with a director of marketing at a Midwest casino that has several $5,000.00 max bac tables.  I was told their hold on bac is always over 20% of their bac drop. 

People do not lose 1% or there abouts of their buy-in.  The highest majority of them will lose 100% of it.

I disagree with the above posts........most gamblers have a very sophisticated money management methodology which is......

"I am going to keep on playing until I lose all my money"

Note the third page down in the following link. I like to compare the casino Hold on various games.

NEVADA TABLE GAMES: HISTORICAL HOLD PERCENTAGE VARIATIONS


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Many thanks to the following for sharing their research.

Citation:

Nevada Table Games: Historical Hold Variations. Las Vegas: Center for Gaming Research,
University Libraries, University of Nevada Las Vegas, 2023.

Hi AsymBacGuy

Thx for comment above in post #1.


What's your opinion?

I agree with your reason above as contributing to higher hold for casino:  Betting huge after losing and conservatively while winning.

Also, we will for the most part win our personal average win-streak-length with little correlation to the amount of said wager size. If anything its my opinion we will actually have a slightly higher strike rate (slightly higher strike % and higher streak length) as a function of wager size(Meaning the higher the wager climbs the more selective we are). Just my opinion. I know Im more selective with a $2000 wager vs a $200 wager.

What I'm suggesting is it doesn't matter if we are wagering a flat bet, small bet, big bet, negpro, or pospro,...etc,  we will each still approach an average hit % ratio and streak length regardless of if one is wagering table min or table max or anything in between.

Thus, my advocacy for a Pos progression. In other words, if I'm fortunate enough to put a consecutive hit streak together of say four in a row--then I want to win more than four base units. Then I can implement a MMM to increase MY Hold.

The key is to know ones own average hit rate % and average streak length per the number of wagers in our buyin.

re: asyms comments above on casinos high Hold rate.

I suspect many players get ahead first at least 10%--30% , maybe more, yet will bust (losing 110--130% of original buyin). I see some players get ahead >100% of buyin and lose to -0- with zero retention of their initial winnings.
Many players have no intention of winning >100% of buyin(BI) in a session when they initially buy in. I'm not against adding many small winning sessions totaling more than buyin if that is ones MO. However, in my opinion its easier to win an amount >=buyin (or even 50-70% of BI) by wagering larger bets(However one chooses to get them up to a larger level).

More later,

Thanks for your detailed answer, as always KFB!

I think that almost no one bac player will take care of the important 'streak rate'/bet amount ratio you've written, choosing a more 'confused' approach dictated by the actual results.

I mean that whenever we choose to bet a higher amount than our standard wager, we ought to consider that such bet should involve a greater than expected probability to win and not hoping to overcome a natural temporary negative variance.

So a flat betting player must solely rely upon a profitable bet selection working for him, maybe a progressive player of any kind could implement to his strategy additional tools as the streak rate compared to his bets, etc.

Unfortunately too many players think that raising the amount alone (at either winning or losing side) will do the job, forgetting that their bankroll is minuscule related to the house's one and just in case there are maximum limits to stop their action.

But the worst thing to do while losing is starting to wager the side bets that besides the Dragon Bonus at P side are heavily burdened by a 7% HE or more.

Thanks if you have time to further elaborate your thoughts, KFB!!

as.

I copied the chart from this link and highlighted Roulette  and Baccarat
*Note the first line in the chart below is the average hold %.

Q: Any thoughts on why Roulette average hold is approximately 150% of Bac??


The following table shows the average, maximum, and minimum monthly hold percentages for the
period January 2004 through January 2023 for four table games:

MONTHLY STATEWIDE HOLD PERCENTAGES, 2004-2023
Category 21 Craps Roulette Baccarat
Average 12.60 14.08 18.88 12.44
High 18.12 20.23 25.70 21.99
Low 8.23 8.03 9.17 2.91
Variance 9.89 12.20 16.53 19.08
Std Dev 1.69 2.13 3.16 3.11
Exp Low 10.91 11.95 15.71 9.33
Exp High 14.29 16.21 22.04 15.56

Any monthly result that deviates significantly from these averages will impact monthly gaming
revenues in a way that may distort the true level of play.

As can be seen by the ranges of variation, Twenty-One, even though it has the highest level of skill
out of any of the four games studied here, had the smallest variance, while roulette had the greatest



Continued Success,