http://www.albionresearch.com/kelly/default.php (http://www.albionresearch.com/kelly/default.php)
cheers
This calculator is ok.
But remember.......
Underbetting is far preferred to overbetting. So perhaps use a 1/2 Kelly and see how the variance goes.
There is some good info at the bottom of the calculator.
I was just thinking about the Kelly criterion in relation to roulette and does it not just show what a lethal combination progressions and the house edge really are. The Risk of ruin getting larger with every losing step.
It's probably not something a lot of us give any thought to when designing methods of play. But just a basic understanding of some of this stuff does make you look at things from a different perspective.
cheers
I thought if we use Kelly criterion, it will just advice not to place any bets on roulette. Is it not true?
Yanks,
That's correct. If you assume that roulette is a negative expectation game, then Kelly will recommend no bet. Alternatively, you can take a purely empirical approach, so make no assumptions (forget that you know about the negative expectation), then calculate the probability and expectation from your data, and calculate your edge from that.