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Resources => Math & Statistics => Topic started by: Bally6354 on August 18, 2013, 06:11:04 PM

Title: A Kelly Strategy Calculator
Post by: Bally6354 on August 18, 2013, 06:11:04 PM
http://www.albionresearch.com/kelly/default.php (http://www.albionresearch.com/kelly/default.php)

cheers
Title: Re: A Kelly Strategy Calculator
Post by: Bally6354 on August 18, 2013, 06:37:19 PM
This calculator is ok.

But remember.......

Underbetting is far preferred to overbetting. So perhaps use a 1/2 Kelly and see how the variance goes.

There is some good info at the bottom of the calculator.
Title: Re: A Kelly Strategy Calculator
Post by: Bally6354 on August 18, 2013, 10:16:46 PM
I was just thinking about the Kelly criterion in relation to roulette and does it not just show what a lethal combination progressions and the house edge really are. The Risk of ruin getting larger with every losing step.

It's probably not something a lot of us give any thought to when designing methods of play. But just a basic understanding of some of this stuff does make you look at things from a different perspective.

cheers
Title: Re: A Kelly Strategy Calculator
Post by: Priyanka on August 19, 2013, 04:04:08 AM
I thought if we use Kelly criterion, it will just advice not to place any bets on roulette. Is it not true?
Title: Re: A Kelly Strategy Calculator
Post by: Bayes on August 19, 2013, 04:51:10 AM
Yanks,


That's correct. If you assume that roulette is a negative expectation game, then Kelly will recommend no bet. Alternatively, you can take a purely empirical approach, so make no assumptions (forget that you know about the negative expectation), then calculate the probability and expectation from your data, and calculate your edge from that.