Some  threads are locked with only one post!
The math shows figures which  are well known,  the 2.7% disadvantages in the play, We see these figures that we have seen before, a mathematical study of a game way usually give this results.  If I should use PB, my expectaion would be worse! The outcome may differ.

Hi Ralph,

I only locked the thread because I haven't finished the analysis yet, I'll open it up later today or tomorrow.

The point of the analysis isn't any kind of proof that PB does or doesn't work, it's to show within what limits certain scenarios lie between.

Quote from: Ralph on November 24, 2012, 12:24:25 PM
If I should use PB, my expectaion would be worse!

Ralph, I'm curious why you think the expectation would be worse than -2.7%?

In general. the point of doing this kind of analysis is not only to show what the expectations are, but to suggest how they might be improved. I take an engineering approach; anyone designing a bridge or a circuit has to know some basic principles of physics and maths  in order to design a bridge which won't collapse or a circuit which won't blow up. Similarly, in order to design a good system it helps to know how the proposed system behaves, never mind that the expectation in the long run is negative; you might as well say that in the long run, the bridge will collapse because of entropy. Probability is to gambling as mechanics is to bridge building. The very process of doing the analysis can often suggest an improved design.

In fact the opposite, I should never had won at the game if i got the expected value. I got the real which come out from it. That i point to was the math you show, which will show the expected value and that is 2.7.