A fascinating subject when dealing with an officially-declared independent-spin game. Can ordering these independent spins for spotting patterns be considered "valid"?

Regular statistics uses collections of spins to compare them with each other and draw conclusions.

I tend to think of it like this:

• Statistics are based on samples of N amount of spins, valid in any order.
• The timeline is based on samples of N spins, which must be analyzed one after the other, in strict order.

This is like analyzing a house versus analyzing the way the house's being built, in real time.

When seeing the house as a whole, you can count the number of blocks, how much concrete was used, how many meters of roof material it took, as well as any other total. This is akin to the long term, what the casino sees and calculates. Totals only, not how they came to be.

On the other hand, when tracking the house being built, you spot how the actual house-building develops: first the foundations, then the outer walls, the walls for the living room, the kitchen, the bathroom, etc... then finally the roof.

In this case, it is akin to watching the short-term. The confines of your current session. Where you spot the events that are happening within a certain cycle or length of spins.

I think it is the main difference between being the casino and being the player.

The casino knows exactly how the house will turn out because it has the exact list of materials (this is the house edge ). The player -instead- can only wager on specific events with a limited bank. So, when seeing the builder is preparing some concrete near the kitchen, then the player bets that the builder will make the kitchen wall and not the living room wall. No guarantees, of course, but simply betting on what seems to be the logical continuation according to how s/he sees houses are usually built.

In other words, betting for the continuation of events, right as the events are taking place.

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How do you see using past spins to try to predict the game? Do you see any form of tracking useful?

Feel free to express your views.

I like the way you put it Vic but to be frank there is not simple yes or no answer.

Usually reality lies between 2 opposing ends, from one hand you have the totals and they don't change regardless of their order of occurrence.
For someone to profit based only on quantitative analysis has to consistently select bets which occur more than their probability/payout.
This way you don't need any progression and/or money management in order to profit.
Is it possible?
Absolutely it is, actually every time you play, every bet section, from singles up to EC's, will be unequal by less or more, always!
We don't know which but that's a different story.

On the other hand, all negative and positive progressions are assuming the likelihood of the sequence of results, thus susceptible to variance.
Negative progressions favor wins after losses, while positive progressions favor wins after wins, both destined to meet their nemesis under various sequences.

If you don't have a good bet selection then progressions and money management would not suffice for overall success.
I'm not rejecting them but are of secondary importance in my  consideration.

As a side note think of the following:
There are 37 players entering the game with 1 spin difference each.
By the 37th spin the first player will conclude his/her betting series while on the same time the last player will initiate his/her own series of bets.

My question is this, even every player bets on the same table do you think all of them to take the same decisions and arrive on same results?

Ponder on this for a while!

Hi Vic and Blue Angel,

I agree with Blue Angel that bet selection is more important than money management.

In keeping with Vic's analogy of building a house.

There are certain things we KNOW have to happen before the house is completed.

1.   We know we have to have a foundation first.
2.   We know that support beams have to be built upon that foundation.
3.   We know that the roof can only be built on those support beams.

IMO bet selections should be made on things we KNOW have to happen.

For example, we know that in 9 spins Red or Black will form one of 16 Arithmetic Progressions (AP).  We know this, it has to happen.  It is a mathematical law (VDW theorem).  This is the foundation.

Once we have a solid foundation, we can continue to build with other bet selections.

Yes, Vic, I believe past spins are necessary as is tracking.

Cheers
Nick