Instinct kind of downplays it a bit IMO. Players like Superman have spent a lot of time studying the game and doing the groundwork. I liken it more as a kind of situational awareness. A players results over time would likely show losses if they were just using pure instinct.

A player could walk up to a table with an instinct that number 23 was about to appear. Unbeknown to the player could be the fact that the 23 area is part of a cold section on the wheel due to a temporary bias. Another player at the table may have taken this factor into account and have an instinct that number 26 is going to come up on the other side of the wheel. Ask yourself who is more likely to profit in the longer term. I suppose this is a more extreme example using a physical approach, however it does illustrate a point.

You don't win longterm using voodoo or guesswork.

Quote from: Bally6354 on August 14, 2013, 10:15:05 AM
Instinct kind of downplays it a bit IMO. Players like Superman have spent a lot of time studying the game and doing the groundwork. I liken it more as a kind of situational awareness. A players results over time would likely show losses if they were just using pure instinct.

A player could walk up to a table with an instinct that number 23 was about to appear. Unbeknown to the player could be the fact that the 23 area is part of a cold section on the wheel due to a temporary bias. Another player at the table may have taken this factor into account and have an instinct that number 26 is going to come up on the other side of the wheel. Ask yourself who is more likely to profit in the longer term. I suppose this is a more extreme example using a physical approach, however it does illustrate a point.

You don't win longterm using voodoo or guesswork.

I agree :-)

Quote from: Bally6354 on August 14, 2013, 10:15:05 AM
Players like Superman have spent a lot of time studying the game and doing the groundwork.
You don't win longterm using voodoo or guesswork.

I am not debating either of these points. I greatly admire anyone who spends time in studying and understanding the game and believe there is a lot to learn from them. The thing am getting at is someone need not give things on a plate, but atleast let us know the strategy and thought process behind what they do (just like Superman explained his money management) it will benefit eager people like who is trying to learn and understand the game. If it cannot be explained, then it cannot be.

Quote from: Bally6354 on August 14, 2013, 10:15:05 AM
I liken it more as a kind of situational awareness. A players results over time would likely show losses if they were just using pure instinct.

My whole point was around botting stuff. What I was getting to was if it is situation awareness and making decisions based on what you see and what you have experienced, it can be taught to a machine and such artificial intelligence can be coded. It is not that its an easy job, but being in the robotics industry, I know exactly how its done. But if its purely based on human instincts, then it cannot be.

Let me take the crude example into account. The key word is "Factor into account". The moment that comes in, it becomes more of a decision making rather than a voodoo capability. Hope you are seeing where am getting to.

I did my training at Ensemble studios before graduating and starting work as a R&D consultant with Fanuc and Universal robotics. During the training, I experienced how we build AI capabilities into the RTS game Age of empires. It is simply an  astonishing subject to look at when it comes to situational awareness and taking 1000s of factors into consideration before taking the next decision which lasts only for milliseconds. And it also has inbuilt learning capabilities based on what it experiences and based on 100s of decisions happened in the past.

It is more like building a Deep blue. But remember, Deep blue was indeed beaten by Kasparov.

Quote from: Superman on August 11, 2013, 04:43:05 PM
instead of working my way up to the 1% it must be my first win, now that win could take a few bets if the 1st one is lost

@ Superman, One basic question. At what point do you give up, as I find sometimes (very rarely) the first win is the one that takes long to come in. Also, do you have any recommendations on the money management to be used for ECs. Some people say soft progressions, but I don't understand what soft progressions mean. Is it a shortened version of martingale where you do 1,2,4 and stop or does it mean something else. Any pointers would be much appreciated.

Quote from: Priyanka on August 14, 2013, 12:34:48 PM
I am not debating either of these points. I greatly admire anyone who spends time in studying and understanding the game and believe there is a lot to learn from them. The thing am getting at is someone need not give things on a plate, but atleast let us know the strategy and thought process behind what they do (just like Superman explained his money management) it will benefit eager people like who is trying to learn and understand the game. If it cannot be explained, then it cannot be.
My whole point was around botting stuff. What I was getting to was if it is situation awareness and making decisions based on what you see and what you have experienced, it can be taught to a machine and such artificial intelligence can be coded. It is not that its an easy job, but being in the robotics industry, I know exactly how its done. But if its purely based on human instincts, then it cannot be.

Let me take the crude example into account. The key word is "Factor into account". The moment that comes in, it becomes more of a decision making rather than a voodoo capability. Hope you are seeing where am getting to.

I did my training at Ensemble studios before graduating and starting work as a R&D consultant with Fanuc and Universal robotics. During the training, I experienced how we build AI capabilities into the RTS game Age of empires. It is simply an  astonishing subject to look at when it comes to situational awareness and taking 1000s of factors into consideration before taking the next decision which lasts only for milliseconds. And it also has inbuilt learning capabilities based on what it experiences and based on 100s of decisions happened in the past.

It is more like building a Deep blue. But remember, Deep blue was indeed beaten by Kasparov.

Thank you for a very interesting reply Priyanka.

I was always kind of undecided if more complex strategies could be botted. You have certainly convinced me that it can be done. It also makes you wonder what kind of research the casino industry has done involving bots because of the resources they have and the time to do it in.

QuoteI was always kind of undecided if more complex strategies could be botted

I've botted some really complicated methods in the past, AI I have dabbled with too but found that it's not really the bet that is my current problem, it's deciding how much to bet which of course depends how deep the hole is at that point AND what I think/feel the RNG is going to be doing over the next 4 or 5 spins. I have no set progression to work with, for example let's say my opinion is the table will have runs of colour and I am down 6 units

bet FTL 2 units - win
bet FTL 3 units - win
bet FTL 2 units - lose
bet FTL 2 units - win
bet FTL 2 units - win +1

Another example, again down 6 units but I am a little unsure of what the table is doing

bet FTL 2 units - lose -8
bet FTL 2 units - win -6
bet FTL 2 units - lose -8
bet FTL 3 units - win -5
bet FTL 3 units - win -2
bet FTL 3 units - lose -5
bet FTL 4 units - win -1
bet FTL 2 units - win +1

Obviousley I could have increased or kept my bet size at 4 but if it loses I would have been back to -5 so at that point I would only bet what I needed to be +1, we shouldn't be greedy.

QuoteAt what point do you give up, as I find sometimes (very rarely) the first win is the one that takes long to come in. Also, do you have any recommendations on the money management to be used for ECs

I never give up on a session, I won't close the game until I am ahead, if you meant giving up on an attack, I do that very often, by that I mean I revert to 1 unit, noting how much I was down then slowely increasing the bet size when the table feels a bit less choppy. I only play red/black, all the above figures are for ECs playing FTL

@ Priyanka, I don't believe this short bursts play is hit and run, as H&R has been debated over and over it boiled down to waiting for the trigger, make one bet if win session over. I am not waiting for any triggers that win 95% of the time hoping to avoid the other 5%, that's what they were doing, dodging bullets, as bally says, it's more of a situation awareness thing no voodoo, just watching the output of the RNG and guessing what it's going to do, change or continue, no rocket science.

QuoteAlso, you mentioned your play is documented in this forum. can't find many in here or rf.cc. Is there a different place I should be looking?

I wrote a bit here
http://betselection.cc/general-discussion/your-favorite-roulette-bet-location/
You'll have to look around if you want more, it is out there but it won't be something I started as there is no method/system it's just answers to questions within threads. Also look around rouletteforum.cc I post there too.

Quote from: Superman on August 14, 2013, 01:52:01 PM
situation awareness thing no voodoo, just watching the output of the RNG and guessing what it's going to do, change or continue, no rocket science.

What does this means? Main problem for me to accept (nor I still am) after you said that you don't use any statistics was that this sounds like pure instinct based making decisions what to bet, which would be with all due respect, silly.

And I doubt any player could do like this in plus overtime, and no to say not losing one single session over few THOUSAND played like you did...

This sounds like pure black art my friend, that way no one can understand this...

Drazen

@ Superman, Thanks for such a detailed reply and I completely understand where this is heading to. It further clarifies the opinion that I had on the "Where" part of the bet selection. It matters only little and you really cannot get a handle on it. Also, there are a lot of factors that you are pointing out to which really make sense like the mind set of a player, the ability of not giving up on a session but giving up on an attack when you think things are not going your way, not being greedy, why it is not H&R, keeping things simple all make perfect sense to me and are huge learnings for a person starting out like me.

@Drazen, I don't think statistics based betting is going to lead anyone anywhere. After having tested over millions and millions of spins and  multiple methods in the last few weeks since I started on roulette, I think it will purely lead you to where the statistics of roulette lead you to. NEGATIVE EXPECTATION.

I am inclined to think that playing and enjoying success in roulette is an art and not science. Of course there is a science element to it, like dancing which I enjoy doing, there are scientific elements which will govern which pose to take, what steps to do, what is the optimal balance point of your body etc, but it is still an art to master. The force of the ball being released and the velocity of the wheel and the randomness and statistics behind it will be the science part of it, but I am more and more getting convinced that it is the art part of it, which takes precedence.

I agree with you that there is an amount of guess work that is involved here, because Superman is never saying that he wins every bet, he just adopts a bit of elasticity in his money management based on what he thinks the table behaves. He might be right, he might be wrong. But I do also agree it is neither voodoo nor rocket science.

Now comes the question of whether it can be botted, yes it can be to a certain degree but not to the degree the human mind is capturing and taking a decision whether it is right or wrong, because a machine can always think only the right way to do it. Its like when you ask for directions in map from one place to other, the machine can show you a number of possible way to reach a destination, it can take a decision and let you know the optimal way to go based on a certain factor, but it cannot beat the effectiveness of an experienced taxi driver. Is the taxi driver doing Voodoo, no he is not. Is he doing rocket science, no not at all.  He is just playing by his experience and nothing beats it!

I am going to take a BR of 500$ that I have earned in the past few weeks and going to use it to understand this kind of play in a bit more detail over the next few days. I am going to start playing in real money, because this is all about human tendency and mind set. The testing and experience will not be the same if I play with fun money, as it is not going to give me the right set of conditions for testing. I hope Superman, you will be around to provide some feedback while I practice this art.

QuoteNow comes the question of whether it can be botted, yes it can be to a certain degree but not to the degree the human mind is capturing and taking a decision whether it is right or wrong

My point exactly.

QuoteI hope Superman, you will be around to provide some feedback while I practice this art

I'll still be here, good luck, don't be scared to drop your bets to 1 unit and plod along until YOU feel happy with your decisions then try to recover.

Quote from: Superman on August 14, 2013, 05:24:26 PM
until YOU feel happy with your decisions then try to recover.

VERY GOOD ADVICE

Yanks said:  "I am going to take a BR of 500$ that I have earned in the past few weeks.....etc,etc, etc..."

Ahem!  Many old hands at this game wish they could make that statement.  Yep, I'm one. 

This begs the question:  Why not keep on keepin' on?  Dance with the one brung ya!

Hey, why so hard on Voodoo, guys?   Sooner or later, you'll find it mostly all Voodoo! 

Sam

I've fought for my life, with every bit of luck and knowledge I have at my disposal to make 180 euro profit in 3 weeks on Dublin bet with a 100 Euro br. Its been a mental challenge.....to the point where I cashed out my BR and will take a break.


wish I had your "beginers luck" Priyanka.


Roulette can be a hard cruel dance partner.

Sam! I don't want to be remembered as the person who spoke too soon. I should be careful while making such statements. [smiley]aes/blush.png[/smiley]
I am still waiting for random to come and eat me live and it nearly happened the last time I played when I tried chasing the losses. Thank God, something shook me and took it out from its grasps!

Quote from: TwoCatSam on August 14, 2013, 09:45:36 PM
Sooner or later, you'll find it mostly all Voodoo! 

"I am still waiting for random to come and eat me live"-Priyanka

Be careful what you say (you may get it)

Roulette (played well can be quite rewarding). 
Remember Mr. J made $18,000 in a session once.

That inspires me to as TwoCat just said "...keep on keepin' on."