I notice that others think they can run simulations non-stop and show results.
It will fail like all other methods, my opinion.

There will always be Good days, Average days and Bad days.
To handle the variation and keep away from the deep hole, we need MM and rules.
I am talking about Entering points and Exit points, when to attack and when to quit.

One Average day that would result in loses overall end up with positive expectation.
One Bad day that would result in catastrophic scenario end up with a small tiny loss.

That is my point.
You can not get away with fuzzy and sloppy attitude.
You see a winning strike jump on board and try you luck or you losing then stop, but when is that.
I don't give much for guess work.

I will post my results and ideas at this topic.
If you want to follow you are more then welcome.

Cheers

RULES TESTING

1)
The original WF3
Bet on up to 3 numbers which have repeated.
A game terminates (start re-tracking) when either a number hits a third time (a win) or a 4th number repeats without any number having hit 3 times (a loss).
2)
Entering point when one window loss and play until a win or three loses in a row.

First 900 trails from random org.

2014 02 15
Window strikes: LWWWWLWLWWWLWLWWW
Verdict: Good sample
Result: +109 units

2014 02 14
Window strikes: LLLWWLWLLLWLLWL
Verdict: Bad sample
Result: -19 units

2014 02 13
Window strikes: LLLWWWLLWLWWLW
Verdict: Average sample
Results: +32 units

TOTALS
+142
-19
= +122

i follow you

Quote from: Sputnik on February 15, 2014, 05:38:52 PM
RULES TESTING

1)
The original WF3
Bet on up to 3 numbers which have repeated.
A game terminates (start re-tracking) when either a number hits a third time (a win) or a 4th number repeats without any number having hit 3 times (a loss).
2)
Entering point when one window loss and play until a win or three loses in a row.

There's something missing here which is what I forgot to include in the first version of the program. If the stop loss kicks in (meaning a 4th number has repeated but no number has hit 3 times) then you play virtually until a number hits the 3rd time, then quit the session and start re-tracking.

Quote from: Sputnik on February 15, 2014, 05:26:15 PM

I notice that others think they can run simulations non-stop and show results.
It will fail like all other methods, my opinion.


No it will not fail like other methods given that your sources are valid, ie live spin samples or some RNG and about that further research must be done but my colleagues use BV with success.

The examples from Flatino demonstrate 26,000 live spins and our own work on Macao, 20,000 spins, and my private compilation of over 150,000 live spins from a dozen casinos shows a positive edge that continues to climb and not re-trace beyond a small level.

Throw away this nonsense about the hopeless and inevitable loss mind set.

There will always be Good days, Average days and Bad days.
To handle the variation and keep away from the deep hole, we need MM and rules.
I am talking about Entering points and Exit points, when to attack and when to quit.


Results will be enhanced by smart timing and MM application. My results however are for brain dead play, ie no discretion. and this conservative stance enables confidence that you have a platform here to build upon.

One Average day that would result in loses overall end up with positive expectation.
One Bad day that would result in catastrophic scenario end up with a small tiny loss.

That is my point.
You can not get away with fuzzyand sloppy attitude.
You see a winning strike jump on board and try you luck or you losing then stop, but when is that.
I don't give much for guess work.


Fuzzy is an unfortunate choice of word here by you because WF is warm meaning warm ( as contrast to hot or cold) numbers and fuzzy which is fuzzy logic as applied to design and mathematics. In design fuzzy enables not just on/ off decisions but degrees of fit and shades of grey as in lighting variation and even the fine detail of fitting precast modules in sophisticated car production plants like PORSCHE.
We want a fuzzy attitude. But not a sloppy attitude.

This is not guess work but shrewd judgement based on vast collective experience and mental and physical fitness.

I will post my results and ideas at this topic.
If you want to follow you are more then welcome.

Cheers

Thanks for your work Sputnik but don't start planning your marathon before you can learn to go beyond walking. Do not overlook the principle of simplicity that provides clear and elegant engineering solutions. You must know the KISS principle.


Best
XXVV
16 FEb 2014/ 0825

Quote from: Bayes on February 15, 2014, 07:00:24 PM

There's something missing here which is what I forgot to include in the first version of the program. If the stop loss kicks in (meaning a 4th number has repeated but no number has hit 3 times) then you play virtually until a number hits the 3rd time, then quit the session and start re-tracking.

I am not missing that part, i even mention it at another topic about the same subject.
I am just not sure if virtual play make any difference.

But i post 900 trails with my own rules to win with good days and average days and keep loses short at bad days.
I respect XXVV point of view and this strategy is not new.
Actually its based upon a old classical method that i have in one of my roulette books.
Not exactly the same, but very similar.

I still argue that there is good days at the tables and average days at the table and bad days at the tables.
Then simplicity does not cut it, we need to manage the waves of strikes.
We can not do that playing non-stop.

Maybe you argue here that virtual play is some kind of trigger that change things.
Well you can see my LW-Registry above and i will test same files with VP.
But i am pretty sure that if i play non-stop with VP i still will get into negative territories.
Mehtod like this needs skips or entering and exit points, some way to manage windows of strikes.

I base this on my own testing, where i get into negative territories if i play non-stop.
I lose if i don't apply entering points and exit points.
And i trust random org being as good as any existing live spins.

I apoliges for this XXVV but this is my humble opinion.

Quote from: Sputnik on February 15, 2014, 10:29:04 PM

I am not missing that part, i even mention it at another topic about the same subject.
I am just not sure if virtual play make any difference.

But i post 900 trails with my own rules to win with good days and average days and keep loses short at bad days.
I respect XXVV point of view and this strategy is not new.
Actually its based upon a old classical method that i have in one of my roulette books.
Not exactly the same, but very similar.

I still argue that there is good days at the tables and average days at the table and bad days at the tables.
Then simplicity does not cut it, we need to manage the waves of strikes.
We can not do that playing non-stop.

Maybe you argue here that virtual play is some kind of trigger that change things.
Well you can see my LW-Registry above and i will test same files with VP.
But i am pretty sure that if i play non-stop with VP i still will get into negative territories.
Mehtod like this needs skips or entering and exit points, some way to manage windows of strikes.

I base this on my own testing, where i get into negative territories if i play non-stop.
I lose if i don't apply entering points and exit points.
And i trust random org being as good as any existing live spins.

I apoliges for this XXVV but this is my humble opinion.

My friend you are entitled to a humble opinion (lol).
What I would be interested in though is a copy or reference to the classical text you mention.
R

 
My first comparison.

My test/tweak.
2014 02 13
Window strikes: LLLWWWLLWLWWLW
Verdict: Average sample
Results:  32 units

WF3 Original with VP
2014 02 13
Window strikes: LLLWWLWWLLL
Verdict: Bad sample
Results: -56 units

First i notice that VP slow down the game and give no advantage.
The game and give less action and also less windows with strikes during 300 trails samples.
But futher testing might prove me wrong.

Quote




What I would be interested in though is a copy or reference to the classical
text you mention.

I can look tomorrow ,,, but i think it was that you see three repeats and follow that one and the last most present two repeats up to certain amount of spins or window.
And one other is that you follow the number that has three repeats and add numbers that has two repeats up to six numbers ...

Nothing strange just similar.

Adding.
I find the methods i was refering to and i wrote about them 2009 ...
Classical systems - Plein Part 1 & 2 ...

Quote from: lucky_strike on April 18, 2009, 08:00:05 PM
Here we wait for one number to repeat 3 times and it has to do so with in 36 spins.
When it appears you play that number at most 18 times straight up.
The numbers that shows up twice with in this 18 times you also play straight up until 18 times have been played.
[table=]
Spins, Numbers, Repeats, +/-
1, 1,,,
2, 10,,,
3, 30,,,
4, 14,,,
5, 32,,,
6, 19,,,
7, 0,,,
8, 5,,,
9, 4,,,
10, 31,,,
11, 12, 12,,
12, 30,,,
13, 13,,,
14, 1,,,
15, 35,,,
16, 12, 12,,
17, 5,,,
18, 24,,,
19, 12, 12,,
-,-,-,-,
1, 15,, -1
2, 24,, -2
3, 33, 33, -3
4, 33, 33, -4
5, 7,, -6
6, 26,, -8
7, 28,, -10
8, 0, 0, -12
9, 0, 0, -14
10, 27,, -16
11, 6,, -19
12, 2,, -22
13, 11,, -25
14, 33, 33, +10
15, 31,, +8
16, 12, 12, +43
17, 20,, +42
18, 30,, +41

[/t]

Part 2 ...

Quote from: lucky_strike on April 19, 2009, 07:05:33 AM
Here we track the numbers to find one number that has repeat 3 times with in 36 spins.
We play this number straight up and we continue to do so for 36 spins.
If it hit then we play this number again for 36 spins.
Now we also add new numbers.
We play the numbers that has show twice up to a total of 6 numbers with the number that has hit 3 times.
At most we will play 6 numbers straight up.
Old numbers falls out for new numbers that has hit twice so we play the 6 numbers that qualify last at all times.
The exception is the first number that we always follow until it not hit once more in 36 spins, see above.
Every time one number hit you play this number with  2 units then back to 1 unit.
Here below can you see a short illustration when 6 numbers show and some hit but ends up with one cycle.
[table=]
Spins, Numbers, Repeats, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, +/-
1, 11,,,,,,,,
2, 36,,,,,,,,
3, 6, 6,,,,,,,
4, 6, 6,,,,,,,
5, 14,,,,,,,,
6, 22,,,,,,,,
7, 2,,,,,,,,
8, 36,,,,,,,,
9, 8,,,,,,,,
10, 19,,,,,,,,
11, 14,,,,,,,,
12, 6, 6,,,,,,,,
-,-,-,-,-,-,-,-,-,-,
1, 32,,,,,,,,
2, 5,,,,,,,,
3, 35, 35,,,,,,,
4, 26,,,,,,,,,
5, 28, 28,,,,,,,
6, 14,,,,,,,,
7, 31,,,,,,,,
8, 22,,,,,,,,
9, 28, 28,28,,,,,,
10, 33,,,,,,,, -1
11, 11, 11,,,,,,, -2
12, 35, 35, 28,35,,,,, -3
13, 13,,,,,,,, -5
14, 35, 35,28,35,,,,, +30
15, 10,,,,,,,, +28
16, 3,,,,,,,, +26
17, 20,,,,,,,, +24
18, 7, 7,,,,,,, +22
19, 7, 7, 28, 35, 7,,,, +20
20, 1,,,,,,,, +17
21, 11, 11, 28, 35, 7, 11,,, +14
22, 8,,,,,,,, +10
23, 24,,,,,,,, +6
24, 7, 7, 28, 35, 7, 11,,, +41
25, 7, 7, 28, 35, 7, 11,,, +123
26, 29,,,,,,,, +119
27, 18, 18,,,,,,, +115
28, 19,,,,,,,, +111
29, 15,,,,,,,, +107
30, 35, 35, 28, 35, 7, 11,,, +143
31, 7, 7, 28, 35, 7, 11,,, +178
32, 21, 21,,,,,,,+174
33, 18, 18, 28, 35, 7, 11, 18,, +170
34, 0,,,,,,,, +165
35, 21, 21, 28, 35, 7, 11, 18, 21, +160
36, 4,,,,,,,, +154

[/t]

You can verify this with Swedish member if you want.
The books are very expensiv, above 100 Euro each.
Is a book from a Swedish author (Sten Nordland) and the main titel of the book is International Roulette.
There is two books with the same name, part 1 & 2 ...

QuoteI respect XXVV point of view and this strategy is not new.-Sputnik

It's been around since the invention of the game.

QuoteThere's something missing here which is what I forgot to include in the first version of the program. If the stop loss kicks in (meaning a 4th number has repeated but no number has hit 3 times) then you play virtually until a number hits the 3rd time, then quit the session and start re-tracking.
-Bayes

Bayes, on the RNG wheels it's simply not going to matter.  All that will change is the number of spins on which a bet is made.  A live wheel, is something different all together.

QuoteI notice that others think they can run simulations non-stop and show results.
It will fail like all other methods, my opinion.

There will always be Good days, Average days and Bad days.
To handle the variation and keep away from the deep hole, we need MM and rules.
I am talking about Entering points and Exit points, when to attack and when to quit.

One Average day that would result in loses overall end up with positive expectation.
One Bad day that would result in catastrophic scenario end up with a small tiny loss.

That is my point.
You can not get away with fuzzy and sloppy attitude.
You see a winning strike jump on board and try you luck or you losing then stop, but when is that.
I don't give much for guess work.

-Sputnik

Guys, 

Regarding RNG: MM and rules don't matter a bit if you're attempting to play this on RNG data.  Afterall, why should it?
Some logic and commonsense needs to prevail.


Regarding a live wheel: On a live wheel,  what also determines when you should quit are the playing conditions.  Your entry and exit points should be based on things like the wheel direction, wheel speed, the dealer, the ball, and the dominant ball drop zones.   This is something that you guys can't see or measure when looking at just your raw data.  I've already been down this road many years ago.  If you're just chasing the raw data alone, then you're simply spinning your wheels.


-Good luck,

-Xander

@ Sputnik


Its like from the sublime to the ridiculous.....


Thanks for your very prompt access to that data and the references; most helpful. I was not aware of these posts or the book title which sounds impressive to me. But then according to Bayes as he suggested not so long ago, I am mesmerised by credentials (lol). Make of that what you will.
Will study, thanks and good luck with your endeavours.
R.

In reality there is one more side to this. You can't play for too long. You can't do it physically. Inevitably when you are tired you will make mistakes. Oh! I would win here if there was no mistake. But more you play -- more you get tired and more chances to make mistake. if you pay attention, when you start playing sometimes you can get away with your mistakes. But when you continue for too long it is an almost inevitable situation when you lose for this reason or that.

My 2 cents.

Quote from: iggiv on February 16, 2014, 01:39:11 AM
In reality there is one more side to this. You can't play for too long. You can't do it physically. Inevitably when you are tired you will make mistakes. Oh! I would win here if there was no mistake. But more you play -- more you get tired and more chances to make mistake. if you pay attention, when you start playing sometimes you can get away with your mistakes. But when you continue for too long it is an almost inevitable situation when you lose for this reason or that.

My 2 cents.

Iggiv you are so right. I have mentioned reality in some recent posts, and it is well known that the ideal and peak time for perfect work ( let alone being prepared for it earlier, ie not tired, angry, drunk or upset over private affairs - money relationships, insecurities et al,  ie life in general) is no more than 70-90 minutes, ie about 60 -90 spins or  3-5 games of WF.

That is real play, real time, and how you make or lose real money.

Parcels of experience. What I am excited about in recent proof has been the ability to seamlessly link sessions of WF play and transfer any debt to negate it next time. This is professional play.

Testing is another universe from real play.

Mind you I have played all nighters too, and I know Mr J over there, when on a roll will hit them hard and press his bets.
XXVV

Quote from: Sputnik on February 15, 2014, 11:03:19 PM

I can look tomorrow ,,, but i think it was that you see three repeats and follow that one and the last most present two repeats up to certain amount of spins or window.
And one other is that you follow the number that has three repeats and add numbers that has two repeats up to six numbers ...

Nothing strange just similar.

Adding.
I find the methods i was refering to and i wrote about them 2009 ...
Classical systems - Plein Part 1 & 2 ...
 
Part 2 ...
You can verify this with Swedish member if you want.
The books are very expensiv, above 100 Euro each.
Is a book from a Swedish author (Sten Nordland) and the main titel of the book is International Roulette.
There is two books with the same name, part 1 & 2 ...
[/quote


I was unaware of this particular writer but of course was aware of these general ideas while studying hot number theory and had been through trial and error testing of all sorts of variations of such, and as many glibly note such theories have been around a long time.


We  (  Bryan and myself)decided to move attention to warm numbers, ie you will notice less demands on numbers of appearances to qualify and also remove time/ duration limits as the cycle is self enforcing, as long as the window of efficient opportunity to live bet is skillfully proportioned so the bet is efficient and has a reliable strike rate.


You are enthusiastic and energetic and will not be dismayed and distracted by the perennial chronic cynics that inhabit such forums as this. Such individuals are losers in the real sense of the term and try to assuage their own self condemnation by forever posting on threads that are suitable outlets for their negativity. it is pattern behaviour and is well understood by the moderators here. Anything with fresh ideas, energy and positive spark is  a target, so you should be flattered. I note it was you though, in another life that posted these notes in 2009. Did they not meet your performance requirements? Did you apply these interesting ideas in practice and what were the results please?


There is a really really important principle here and please listen to what I am saying.


Warm numbers are bubbling along 'just below the surface' all the time as potential repeats not necessarily consecutive repeats. The activity does still get 'excited' from time to time and gets hot, but usually just simmers along on a steady temperature. Only rarely does it cool. It took 20,000 spins at Macao to see only one example where the energy cooled to enable there to be 17 targets, ie no repeater action for a while. And the phase lasted some while. It did not correct or re-heat in a hurry as a gamblers fallacy would like to naively believe.


Because of the simmering heat energy ( if you visualise this metaphor - like physics) the warm numbers are a consistent and more reliable bet opportunity, unlike hot numbers. Just ask the confused followers of showman theorist RWD Roy Ward Dickson.


This is a vital shift and this is where the intellectual property value is with this idea. WF  has a unique character. Do not underestimate its value. It is not hot number theory. It has built into it through the live and virtual passages many safeguards as well as efficiencies. Ignore the cynics but focus on practical winning and as AJ on my thread says boldly, train yourself to win.

WF has built in flexibility also if you want to have less losing games, and risk exposure in that regard. switch to WF4. Please carefully reflect on this. Apply smart MM and psychology as well. Get synergy to work ( effective energy total is greater than the sum of the parts - that is physics and buckminster fuller). Good Hunting.\
XXVV 16Feb2014/1633

QuoteInviting Xander to dinner would have the unfortunate result of all the guests losing their appetites and leaving because he would have deflated the evening like a Led Zeppelin and insulted Chef Ramsey over his poor record at Glasgow Rangers.


Don't take it personally Xander remember the Bayes Mantra.
XXVV

Wow, if I made a comment like that then you'd be demanding that the mods ban me.

Try and stick to the thread XXVV.