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John Patrick's Trend strategy

Started by ozon, January 16, 2017, 05:51:16 PM

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ozon

Some time ago, I played with BV nozero roulette.
The strategy was very simple, used a trend bet selection and John Patrick's regression.

Bet selection
When I started sessions waited for 2 different dozen , and Play That they repeat, Play That 2dozens till  lose. In this way we play each spin, because if you fall out sleeper, we have 2 different last dozens.

Regression
We go up when we win
4-2-3-4-5
  when we come to 5 units and the win, session is over
stop lose is 3 attempts, if the lose 3 times first bet ,end session.

To my surprise, after a few thousand spins, BR was positive.
I do not think this will continue in the long run, but the results were very interesting.
I do not play this strategy further for lack of time.

Sputnik


ozon

And I thought a little , we can use  this  kind of  regression  in live sports betting on Betfair, we can use on any 1.50 odds bet, but if we have a lot of time would suggest waiting  football matches when we have 0-0 for the 2nd half, waiting odds That will increase to 1.53 ,and then bet over 0.5 goals.
Maybe we are able to some increase our effectiveness.

Sputnik


Well i feel that you are on the right track - i Always test varios ways using Regression Up & Pull.
With your example above i belive that the strike ratio for domination compensate for the loses.

I have John Patricks Sport Handicap Ebook - but i did not have time or understand the lingo for different aspects.
Also experimenting with Roulette solutions and try to convert them into Sport betting.

Nice to see that you like Regression Up & Pull.

ozon

Sports betting is the main area, which interests me because we have  edge by picking good events or  having good source of information. Roulette treats as a hobby, it seems to me that the difficulties that are used by online casinos, long-term profit is realy hard to achieve.
When I will have time preferable to try to play with this strategy.
If we have the edge with this strategy, it is minimal, and probably have to play a lot of spins to achieve any profit.

RouletteDevil

Quote from: ozon on January 19, 2017, 04:13:25 AM
Sports betting is the main area, which interests me because we have  edge by picking good events or  having good source of information. Roulette treats as a hobby, it seems to me that the difficulties that are used by online casinos, long-term profit is realy hard to achieve.
When I will have time preferable to try to play with this strategy.
If we have the edge with this strategy, it is minimal, and probably have to play a lot of spins to achieve any profit.

Yep, with you on this, I trade on betfair on a regular basis now, I tend to play to cash out on my hit % , on LTD, or Lay over 2.5 goals.
Plus laying the field on horses 🏇
All the numbers add up to 666
the DEVILS game !!

ozon

I had little time for the last 2 days.
I decided to check something, I started to play on nozero BV roulette.
Bet selection from first post, so 2 dozens bet, flat bet.
After 3750 spins  im UP exactly  +41 units
I do not know why, whether it is possible to achieve a fine edge by flatbet selection?
It works only on nozero roulette.
So far, I do not know if the software is malfunctioning and show lucky variance?

RouletteGhost

so you are playing against a unique dozen set

like this chart
QuoteBecause the house always wins. Play long enough, you never change the stakes. The house takes you. Unless, when that perfect hand comes along, you bet and you bet big, then you take the house.

Sputnik


Ozon i feel you are on the right track and you should continue to follow that path.
If you master Regression Up & Pull you sure is a true gambler in my book

ozon

Thanks Sputnik
I also think that regression is a very powerful tool.
In a few days I'll try to  play on live online table, with this bet selection and see how it goes.
At RNG I have all the time problems with disconnections.

Sputnik


Ozon whish country are you from ...
I from Sweden.

Cheers

ozon

Sputnik .I wrote to you in the chat, but I do not know if my  informatio is delivered
Im from Poland

About bet selection
I played spins 12750
The whole time I was ahead  , now +70 units, highest point was +180 units.
Im still do not know if it's edge or just the variance of RNG.

I have another idea for the bet selection
On the idea of clues me bleep24 from another forum
We always play last 3 DS if we will get hit in Play That 3 DS to the first loss, then take the last 3 DS and play the same way. every spin we have bet.

In this way, always playing the hottest DS as an even bet.
I do not know how it will look in the long run, but if in a similar way in the double  dozen, Mayby be even beter with EC.

Sputnik


Yes Ozon i could read the chat :-)
Ozon i test using Regression Up & Pull with one dozen to repeat and two dozen as a HEDGE BET to break even and start over.

First bet has 33% and the secound 66% ...
I don't know if you should continue with the last hit if all Three show or wait for a ficitive win - but the results looks good.

If you want to know the selection method you can PM me and we can talk private - also work as EC bet and HEDGE with two dozen.


ozon

I do not play more, for lack of time.
But I had an idea, only theoretically about long term negative progression.
If this bet has a selection edge, or is very close to the zero point. We can try something like that, raise bet + 1, after 10 Loses, 10 losses is 20 units from our highest bankroll if we are again 10 lost bets, raising the stakes again. If this recovery step to reduce the stakes. Whenever reaches new high, the reset progression,
It is very stretched d'Alambert. bankroll we need is about 1,000 units, that's 9 steps progression.
Its very long progression, some times we need to reach thousands of spins.
This progression is only theoretical, because it acts only on the roulette nozero and disconnections make impossible to play there.

Sputnik


I don't agree - my opinion is that you jump on board domination or trends with three of four attempts and if you don't strike you quit and start over.

Cheers