A long time ago, I forget which forum it was , a poster named Pit Boss posted a simple, conservative negative progression which bet against a streak going more than 3 in a row. Makes sense because
in the "long run" most streaks will end at 3 or less approximately 85% to 88% of the time.
If you have a few scorecards, draw a line under the third row on the card and count the hands above the 3 line and then count the hands below the 3 line which went to 4 ( stop counting if the run went more than 4 since we are only interested if the run went past 3).... ...for example if 60 hands are above the 3 line and 6 hands ran to 4, then the % of runs which stopped at 3 equals 60/64 = 94% of the time.
(60 hands stopped at a run of 3 or less and 4 hands hit the run of 4 for a total of 64 hands played.)
For example if you have PBPBPBPBPB
PB P B
B P B
P B
P B
P
Then 17 hands are above a run of 3 hands or less and 2 hands went to a run of 4........so it went to a run of 3 or less i 17/19 of about 89% of the time.
This is the reason bac is so hard to beat since when the hands are above the 3 line at least 85% of the time, you can get anything such as a chop PBPBPB a two PPBBPPBBPPBB a three PPPBBBPPPBBB a
1-2 BPPBPPBPP a 3-2 PPPBBPPPBB a 1-3 PBBBPBBBPBBB or garbage PPBPPPBPBBBPPBPBBPBP so it's hard to come up with conservative negative progression.
And of course the first shoes you actually play for real money that any run will end at 3, you get
6 shoes in a row where almost every run is 4 ,6 4 , 8, 5, 9 etc etc and you get whacked if you bet a negative progression hoping that the run will end at 3..
in the "long run" most streaks will end at 3 or less approximately 85% to 88% of the time.
If you have a few scorecards, draw a line under the third row on the card and count the hands above the 3 line and then count the hands below the 3 line which went to 4 ( stop counting if the run went more than 4 since we are only interested if the run went past 3).... ...for example if 60 hands are above the 3 line and 6 hands ran to 4, then the % of runs which stopped at 3 equals 60/64 = 94% of the time.
(60 hands stopped at a run of 3 or less and 4 hands hit the run of 4 for a total of 64 hands played.)
For example if you have PBPBPBPBPB
PB P B
B P B
P B
P B
P
Then 17 hands are above a run of 3 hands or less and 2 hands went to a run of 4........so it went to a run of 3 or less i 17/19 of about 89% of the time.
This is the reason bac is so hard to beat since when the hands are above the 3 line at least 85% of the time, you can get anything such as a chop PBPBPB a two PPBBPPBBPPBB a three PPPBBBPPPBBB a
1-2 BPPBPPBPP a 3-2 PPPBBPPPBB a 1-3 PBBBPBBBPBBB or garbage PPBPPPBPBBBPPBPBBPBP so it's hard to come up with conservative negative progression.
And of course the first shoes you actually play for real money that any run will end at 3, you get
6 shoes in a row where almost every run is 4 ,6 4 , 8, 5, 9 etc etc and you get whacked if you bet a negative progression hoping that the run will end at 3..