« on: June 16, 2018, 01:22:49 pm »
I wrote this post a few weeks ago in the General Discussion Forum......my opinion as to the best way to win in the long run.
It all comes down to :
1) Having a sufficient bankroll to withstand the inevitable large drawdowns
2. Having a very conservative money management method where you can recover the drawdowns........ since we are all playing negative expectation games and will win less than 50 % of our bets, we will eventually have to increase our bet size to win more money on our winning bets than we lose on our losing bets.
Follow these 6 steps and anyone can beat the casino at any game,...... dice, baccarat, sicbo, roulette ....
If you can't follow all these 6 steps, you will probably lose.
1. Select a bet size where by your bankroll will not run up against the table maximum when you use your money management methodology to recover from a drawdown.
2. Use a very conservative money management methodology where you can recover a significant drawdown without hitting the table maximum......for instance, play at
a $ 15 dollar minimum table and use a money management methodology such as
111111111111111 22222222 etc etc ....
where you bet 1 unit, and if on any series of bets you are down 15 units, then bet 2 units until you are ahead 1 unit and then go back to betting 1 unit...there are of course many other methods you can use......but they must all be conservative.
3 Ensure that your bankroll can withstand a 100 unit drawdown flat betting
In the above example, your bankroll should be at least $ 1,500
if your bet size is $ 15 ( $ 15 bet size x 100 unit worst case drawdown = $ 1,500 )
4. Make sure that your bankroll is in real dollars, not some wet dream, and place the bankroll and all the accumulated future profits and losses in a separate place,,,,,,,,,such as a small portable safe.......walmart sells one for about $ 30.
5. Keep a spreadsheet of your beginning bankroll and all future profits and losses
6. You must have patience to follow your money management plan and not go on "tilt" like poker players who are on a losing streak.
Size your bets using your money management methodology so that you can eventually make up your drawdown even if it takes 3,4 or 5 sessions of betting.
Number 6 above, patience, is probably the most important......trying to make up a drawdown by raising your bets too large and too fast and neglecting your money management, methodology will probably ruin any chance or achieving profitability.
Also, if you are using an aggressive progression betting system ( like a labby, reverse labby etc etc ) , all the above gets much more complicated since you can easily lose 10 to 20 units in a bad shoe...and you will have numerous bad shoes.
Using an aggressive betting size where you can lose 10 to 20 units on a series of bets requires a much more intense analysis of bet size and money management methodology versus flat betting....... and requires a very, very, very large bankroll because if you use an aggressive betting size, you will eventually run into a series of bets where you will be down between 200 and 500 units
The higher the risk, the higher the reward and the higher the bankroll required.
So that's how you beat the casino...and maybe 1 out of 10,000 customers in a casino will follow all 6 steps.