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31
Baccarat Forum / Re: Article on baccarat
« on: June 23, 2018, 01:26:26 pm »
The  scariest statistic for baccarat players was that Macaus 40 casinos mad $ 30 billion profit in 2017 from baccarat.

32
Baccarat Forum / Article on baccarat
« on: June 22, 2018, 01:30:47 am »
Here is an article on baccarat...mostly just general common knowledge....but maybe  one or two comments which may be of interest.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidschwartz/2018/06/21/why-casinos-love-and-fear-baccarat-the-worlds-biggest-gambling-game/#283cc6d44188

33
You don't put the whole bankroll at risk if you use a small % of bankroll for each bet.

For example, if your total bankroll is $2,000, risk only 1.5 % of bankroll on each bet which is $ 30.....and only rick 8 % of bankroll on each session which is $ 160.

A session can be any number of bets or shoes or spins that you feel is conservative.




34
I wrote this post a few weeks ago in the General Discussion Forum......my opinion as to the best way to win in the long run.

It all comes down to :

1) Having a sufficient bankroll to withstand the inevitable large drawdowns

2. Having a very conservative money management method where you can recover the drawdowns........ since we are all playing negative expectation games and will win less than 50 % of our bets, we will eventually have to increase our bet size to win more money on our winning bets than we lose on our losing bets.




Follow these 6 steps and anyone can beat the casino at any game,...... dice, baccarat, sicbo, roulette ....

If you can't follow all these 6 steps, you will probably  lose.

1. Select a bet size where by your bankroll will not run up against the table maximum when you use your money management methodology to recover from a drawdown.

2. Use a very conservative money management methodology where you can recover a significant drawdown without hitting the table maximum......for instance, play at 
a $ 15 dollar minimum table and use a money management methodology  such as
111111111111111 22222222 etc etc ....

where you bet 1 unit, and if on any series of bets you are down 15 units, then bet 2 units until you are ahead 1 unit and then go back to betting 1 unit...there are of course many other methods you can use......but they must all be conservative.

3 Ensure that your bankroll can withstand a 100 unit drawdown flat betting

In the above example, your bankroll should be at least  $ 1,500

if your bet size is $ 15 ( $ 15 bet size x 100 unit worst case drawdown = $ 1,500 )

4. Make sure that your bankroll is in real dollars, not some wet dream,  and place the bankroll and all the accumulated future profits and losses in a separate place,,,,,,,,,such as a small portable safe.......walmart sells one for about $ 30.

5. Keep a spreadsheet of your beginning bankroll and all future profits and losses

6. You must have patience to follow your money management plan and not go on "tilt" like poker players who are on a losing streak.

Size your bets using your money management methodology so that you can eventually make up your drawdown even if it takes 3,4 or 5 sessions of betting.

Number 6 above, patience, is probably the most important......trying to make up a drawdown by raising your bets too large and too fast and neglecting your money management, methodology will probably ruin any chance or achieving profitability.

Also, if you are using an aggressive progression betting system ( like a labby,  reverse labby etc etc ) , all the above gets much more complicated since you can easily lose 10 to 20 units in a bad shoe...and you will have numerous bad shoes.

Using an aggressive betting size where you can lose 10 to 20 units on a  series of bets requires a much more intense analysis of bet size and money management methodology versus flat betting....... and requires a very, very, very large bankroll because if you use an aggressive betting size, you will eventually run into a series of bets where you will be down between 200 and 500 units

The higher the risk, the higher the reward and the higher the bankroll required.

So that's how you beat the casino...and maybe 1 out of 10,000 customers in a casino will follow all 6 steps.

35
For some games it is getting more difficult............because moron tourists still play the games..... as well as now having to pay for parking in Vegas and also being charged "room fees"when you book a Vegas room

https://www.blackjackinfo.com/no-6-to-5-blackjack/

Wish it was back in the good old days when the mob ran Vegas and not these corporate greedy pigs.

36
Anyone considering using bitcoin for any reason other than using them to enter a pay toilet should read this:

https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2018/jun/11/bitcoin-price-cryptocurrency-hacked-south-korea-coincheck

37
Baccarat Forum / Re: Baccarat Partner Betting Demo 1
« on: June 02, 2018, 12:24:15 pm »
I have seen a chop that was 16 hands long........as many of the posters on the forum have also seen.......which will kill this method.

Also most shoes are garbage shoes, with most streaks ending in 2 , 3 or 4 in a row...........which will also give you a big loss using this method.

Looks like you need a few shoes with a long streak ( 8 or 9 bankers or players in a row) which will give you a good profit and overcome your many losing shoes.

As in most forms of gambling, you can produce a profit if your bankroll can handle the inevitable large drawdowns .....just like starting your own business, most businesses fail because they are not sufficiently capitalized ( bankrolled )  to withstand the initial start up costs and lack of brand recognition, and the inevitable downturns in the business cycle.

38
General Discussion / How to beat the casino
« on: May 31, 2018, 12:15:46 am »
Follow these 6 steps and anyone can beat the casino at any game,...... dice, baccarat, sicbo, roulette ....

If you can't follow all these 6 steps, you will probably  lose.

1. Select a bet size where by your bankroll will not run up against the table maximum when you use your money management methodology to recover from a drawdown.

2. Use a very conservative money management methodology where you can recover a significant drawdown without hitting the table maximum......for instance, play at 
a $ 15 dollar minimum table and use a money management methodology  such as
111111111111111 22222222 etc etc ....where you bet 1 unit, and if on any series of bets you are down 15 units, then bet 2 units until you are ahead 1 unit and then go back to betting 1 unit...there are of course many other methods you can use......but they must all be conservative.

3 Ensure that your bankroll can withstand a 100 unit drawdown flat betting

In the above example, your bankroll should be at least  $ 1,500
 ( $ 15 bet size x 100 unit worst case drawdown = $ 1,500 )

4. Make sure that your bankroll is in real dollars, not some wet dream,  and place the bankroll and all the accumulated future profits and losses in a separate place,,,,,,,,,such as a small portable safe.......walmart sells one for about $ 30.

5. Keep a spreadsheet of your beginning bankroll and all future profits and losses

6. You must have patience to follow your money management plan and not go on "tilt" like poker players who are on a losing streak.

Size your bets using your money management methodology so that you can eventually make up your drawdown even if it takes 3,4 or 5 sessions of betting.

Number 6 above, patience, is probably the most important......trying to make up a drawdown by raising your bets too large and too fast and neglecting your money management, methodology will probably ruin any chance or achieving profitability.

Also, if you are using a progression betting system ( like a labby) , all the above gets much more complicated since you can easily lose 10 to 20 units in a bad shoe...and you will have numerous bad shoes.

Using a betting methodology where you can lose 10 to 20 units on a  bad shoe requires a much more intense analysis of bet size and money management methodology versus flat betting. 

The higher the risk, the higher the bankroll required.

So that's how you beat the casino...and maybe 1 out of 10,000 customers in a casino will follow all 6 steps.

39
Sports Betting Forum / Re: Sport betting Service
« on: May 21, 2018, 12:04:56 am »
What sports do you bet?

40
If you are in Vegas, here is a list of casinos that have bac where you can get more info.

https://www.onlineunitedstatescasinos.com/blog/las-vegas-table-games-play-baccarat-las-vegas-9603/

41
Baccarat Forum / Shoe from Hell
« on: May 11, 2018, 01:07:03 pm »
In my experience, when you see these things happening in a section of hands  in a baccarat shoe, that's the time you will have a really, really bad losing section of the shoe ( lose 9 of 10, lose 6 in a row, lose 7 in a row etc etc ) or get killed in the entire shoe :

1.You lose to a natural ( you bet Player and banker wins with a natural )

2. You lose on a 7 to 6 ( You bet Player and lose to  Banker 7 to Player 6 on the first 4 cards )

3. You are behind on the first 4 cards and lose the hand ( you bet Player hand have a 1 on first 2 cards and Banker has a 3 on first 2 cards so you are behind 3 to 1 and Player draws a 10 for total of 1 and Banker draws a 3 for total of 6 and you lose ( Whoever is ahead on first 4 cards wins between 85% and 95% of the hands since other side has to "catch up"  ...if you are constantly behind on the first 4 cards, you will lose most of those hands )

4. You are ahead on first 4  cards and lose the hand......you bet banker and banker has  a 3 on the first 4 cards and Player has a 2 so you are ahead, 3 to 2 but Player draws a 7 for a total of 9 and Banker draws a 2 for total of 5 and you lose.  You are "supposed" to win but lose instead.

This is not a "system" (unless someone is smart enough to develop one) but if you see these situations  appearing in a section of the shoe, you are most likely in for a beating.

The opposite is also true for a good section of the shoe...............but the bad sections will be more than the good sections since you are playing a negative expectation game and will lose more hands than you will win.

42
In Las Vegas. using any kind of electronic device in a casino will get you up to 5 years in prison.

43
General Discussion / Beating the casino (Part 7 )
« on: April 23, 2018, 10:49:05 am »
Unfortunately Ken passed away in 1987, possibly from heart failure.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ken_Uston


44
General Discussion / Beating the casino ( Part 6 )
« on: April 23, 2018, 10:45:56 am »
Have to give the guy credit for sticking with it after numerous failures when he first started out.

https://lasvegassun.com/vegasdeluxe/2015/nov/02/vegas-dave-wins-25-million-from-100000-bet-royals-/


45
General Discussion / Beating the Casino ( part 5 )
« on: April 23, 2018, 10:38:13 am »
From a strictly mathematical viewpoint, this is the only correct way to play a negative expectation game where the casino has the advantage such as baccarat, roulette, craps etc etc.................and that is "one and done" ........just make one bet and don't come back.

http://www.fox5vegas.com/story/19069691/risky-business-bettor-wins-132k-in-single-roulette-spin


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