Quote from: Gizmotron on December 17, 2016, 12:06:14 PM

Have you ever heard others on gambling forums talk about clustering. You clearly have not heard me talk about the global effect and the effectiveness states.

I'm aware of the idea of clusters, perhaps you could clarify and define what a cluster is? when it begins and when it ends? At the moment it all seems a bit fuzzy. Sputnik says for the even chances a cluster is 2 out of 3 wins in the past 3 spins, what would it be for a double dozen?

And correct, I haven't read any of your other posts. Can you point me to where you have written about this? Thanks.

Quote from: Gizmotron on December 16, 2016, 09:53:17 AM
I hope that helps. Do you have any other questions?

Well thanks but whether you choose to call it "prediction" or something else doesn't really resolve the dilemma as far as I can see. What you seem to be saying is that you try to anticipate a winning streak based on one or more past wins, and the signal to stop betting is when you get one or more losses. If there was an advantage in this it should show up in the stats shouldn't it? But according to my research it doesn't. What I've found is that past successes don't reliably indicate future successes, and also past losses don't indicate more losses. What seems to be the beginning of a trend could reverse at any time, and similarly what seems be the end of a trend could also be just be temporary. What happens is that the false starts and ends eat away at your bankroll so that in the end you break even, or worse.

Quote from: Mathemagician on December 16, 2016, 10:19:12 AM
Sorry to confuse you I'd included the stake. Admittedly, sometimes I'm one of the 5 out of 3 people who can't do maths.

Ok thanks. But I don't see why you have chosen a streak of 4 losses to bet against when you could just wait for one. According to probability a streak of 2 losses will happen half as often as a single loss, a streak of 3 losses will happen half as often as a streak of 2, and so on. So surely the chances are just as good betting that a single loss won't turn into a double loss, as they are betting that a streak of 4 losses won't turn into a streak of 5?

Quote from: Mathemagician on December 02, 2016, 11:59:39 AM
If 16 of these bets lose we lose 16 units. However, the other 15 bets win returning 30 units.This shows an overall profit of 14 units. (a fairly typical result)

  I don't understand this. Why should the other 15 bets return 30 units? An even chance pays 1:1.

Gizmatron are you saying that you win flat betting by using your system?

Personally I don't believe it's possible to predict future outcomes in a random game, so some kind of money management is essential. By definition random means unpredictable.