Quote from: AsymBacGuy on April 18, 2021, 09:53:55 PM
Thanks KFB for your comments!
Only a team could approach the 7-tier system in the original aggressive version having a "leader" instructing when to bet and sharing an enormous bankroll.
Such a team work very well at online sites where different result lines are put together in order to get supposedly "more likely" betting spots (by a pc software, of course).
Even tough bets can theorically (and practically) reach huge values, this system is mathematically sound as per every 7-tier played the math probability to win is 72.66%.
I do not use this system as I'm a strict flat betting aficionado and HS live player (and mentor), anyway the 7-tier concept is quite interesting as it doesn't take into account single results but successions of 7-hand outcomes attacked by the same bet amount.
We know that itlr among the 128 possible WL patterns, each of them will present sooner or later, besides a "general" math probability to succeed it's just the relative frequency of every single WL pattern that cares.
There are several steps to assess whether we're doing good for a reason or by luck.
Best example is to estimate the most deviated 2/128 WL patterns, that is WWWWWWW and LLLLLLL patterns.
If after a given amount of shoes tested the former number will overcome the latter, we got a sure sign that the probability to be right is more significant than otherwise.
The same about less deviated patterns as those containing 6 W or L and specular 1 L or W and so on.
Obviously when considering an odd number of patterns, most winning situations come out after knowing the very first W or L result nature as there are more winning patterns starting with a W than the opposite situation.
If we'd think to get a long term winning system we should put a lot of emphasis about this very first bet.
Now say that we do not want to set up or belong to a team but trying to get the best of it by not risking a lot of money.
Whenever the 7-tier system will dictate to bet a progressive X amount, we'll reduce it by a 5:1 scale.
Therefore after the first 7-tier betting series, we'll get those scenarios:
-1 unit loss= next betting amount 1
-3 unit loss= next betting amount 1
- 5 unit loss= nerxt betting amount 1.1
- 7 unit loss = next betting amount 1.4
It's true that now a very first bet (and other profitable conditions) won't erase the deficit by just a +1 W step over a L counterpart at any degree considered, but it's altogether true that mathematically we'll need a way lesser amount of profitable patterns to get the same erasing deficit.
Say tonight we're not guessing a fkng nothing, thus getting 5 more losses at 1.4 betting amount level.
Overall we got 2 wins and 12 losses (7 L and 0 W at 1 unit level and 2 W and 5 L at 1.4 unit level).
Thus we are behind 7 units plus 1.4 x 3 units = 7 + 4.2 units = 11.2 units.
Next bet will be 11.2 : 0.5 = 2.24 unit.
We see that even after a very unlikely 2:12 WL ratio our next bet will be just set up at 2.24 unit.
Now we need just a lesser amount of WL patterns than math expected to erase the deficit (even adding up the vig impact to losses), actually a wise flat betting approach cannot reach strong LW deviations by any means.
Nonetheless, even a "I do not care about what the shoe is producing" strategy (not recommended) will get a proper math advnantage itlr.
as.
Hello, AsymBacGuy!
You said you are strict flat betting. Give, please, an advice in which direction need to think to create a winning flat betting scheme. You are long term winning flat bettor, yes?