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Messages - TheCaviarKid

#1
Dublinbet/ViewCasino now also use this autowheel from the Expo 24/7.

Minimum stakes 10p/c. They speeded the wheel up a bit over the Christmas period but now it's back to roughly 60 second spins which is a bit slower than the live tables.
#2
General Discussion / Re: @Jimske
January 10, 2015, 02:24:58 PM
To be fair to you Alrelax, 1 or 2 guys have went over the score.....but why don't you just delete the message if it's off topic.

This is why I think self moderation is a good thing. I can remember guys like Winkel and Mr Chips who were productive posters and sharing ideas getting hounded of these forums by trolls who didn't believe in Bet Selection. Nothing much was ever done about it and it was a loss to anyone who came here to read about bet selection and we were still left with the trolls.

This kind of looks like a 'problem, reaction, solution' situation.

No offence Alrelax, but take some responsibility and instead of whining about it, delete it if you don't like it.  (including this one) [smiley]aes/beer.png[/smiley]
#3
Math & Statistics / Re: repeaters formula
January 10, 2015, 12:18:42 PM
Quote from: Bayes on January 10, 2015, 09:35:43 AM
@ maestro,

There was a thread on the "sweet spot" for repeaters somewhere, but damned if I can find it. As I recall, the average was 7, but I'll get back to you on this.


Here are 3 million spins worth from Hamburg.

This is for the first repeater. It does look like 7 is the 'sweet spot'

2 10,925
3 21,007
4 29,818
5 36,698
6 40,599
7 42,534
8 41,406
9 38,225
10 33,919
11 28,188
12 22,631
13 17,399
14 12,875
15 9,012
16 6,005
17 3,711
18 2,374
19 1,293
20 695
21 369
22 214
23 56
24 25
25 14
26 5
27 3
28 0
29 0
30 0
31 0
32 0
33 0
34 0
35 0
36 0
#4
Craig Greiner has a 22 step progression in his book 'The Future Gambler' which will set you back 317 units if it loses. He said he only ever saw that progression bust once.

My 30 step adaptation will only set you back 176 units if you lose step 22. The full 30 steps will cost you 767 units.

Here is a description of the mongoose MM. (It is the best explanation I can find and is courtesy of GLC)

#1.  Bet 1 unit.  If win go to #2 (+1).   If lose repeat #1 (-1).  Move up 1 step in the progression.

#2.  Bet 2 units.  If win go to #3 (+3).  If lose go to #1 (-1).

#3.  Bet 1 unit.  If win go to #5 (+4).  If lose go to #4 (+2).

#4.  Bet 2 units.  If win go to #5 (+4).  If lose go to #1 (+0).

#5.  Bet 1 unit.  If win go to #1 (+5).  If lose go to #6 (+3).

#6.  Bet 1 unit.  If win go to #5 (+4).  If lose go to #7 (+2).

#7.  Bet 3 units.  If win go to #1 (+5).  If lose go to #1 (-1).

What the above does is risk 1 unit to win 5 units.  It's divided into 3 sections.

Section 1 is #'s 1 & 2.  You are trying to win 3 units in this section.  #'s 1 & 2 represent a parlay.  If you win both you will be up 3 units.  If you lose either, you will be -1 unit.  That would end your 1st attack.

Section 2 is #'s 3 & 4.  You're trying to add 1 unit to your 3 units from section 1.  This section is a 2 step capped martingale.  If you win #3 you will have won your 1 unit and will be up 4 units and can move to section 3.  If you lose #3, you will double your bet size and try to recover the 1 unit you lost in #3.  A win here and you have your 4 units and can go on to Section 3.  A loss here wipes out the 3 units you won in Section 1 and you return to section 1.  You broke even for that attack so no loss.

Section 3 is #'s 5, 6 & 7.  You're trying to add 1 final unit to the 4 you've won so far in this attack.  This section is a 1 1 3 bet attempt.  If you win the 1st 1 unit bet, you will have won your 5 units for this attack and can reset to Section 1.  If you lose the 1st 1 unit bet, you make another 1 unit bet to try to recover the 1st 1 unit loss.  If you win, you return to the 1st 1 unit bet in Section 3 and try again.  If you lose both 1 unit bets in Section 3, you will have lost 2 bets in a row and are going to risk 3 units.  This will either leave you at -1 and you return to Section 1 for another attack or you will be at +5 in which case you still return to Section 1 for another attack.

So, if we succeed in Section 1, we will be up 3 units.  If we lose Section 1, we will be -1 move up 1 step in our progression .  We only go to Section 2 if we win in Section 1.  If we succeed in Section 2, we will be up 1 more unit putting us up 4 units.  If we lose both bets in Section 2, we will have lost the 3 units we won in Section 1 and return to Section 1 with no harm done.  If we succeed in Sections 1 & 2, we move to Section 3 where we try to add 1 more unit to our total.  If we succeed in Section 5 we will add 1 more unit to our 4 units for a total of +5 units.  If we fail in our attempt in Section 3, we will lose -1 unit for this attack.  We will move 1 step up our progression line and start over with Section 1.

Even though Section 3 results in a -1 or +5 culmination of our attack, remember, we must lose 3 bets in a row to fail.

Thank you GLC.

I have added the 30 step MM as an attatchment.

The average win is just short of £3 for each successful coup using this progression.




#5
General Discussion / Re: New forum starting - sort of
December 30, 2014, 12:14:11 AM
That sounds like good news Vic.

Don't get me wrong! Forums are what the members make them. I can think of loads of times on some of your forums when members were pulling together and there was a good spirit about. Maybe giving people more of a vested interest in how the community is run will create a good atmosphere where people feel more happier to share their experiences and we can put all the petty stuff aside. It's worth the effort to try.  :thumbsup:

#6
General Discussion / Re: New forum starting - sort of
December 29, 2014, 09:45:00 PM
Quote from: alrelax on December 29, 2014, 09:03:48 PM
You don't think that this mimic's the tables these days??

Yep, you are right alrelax! I was there at 2.00pm today and was just about the only one there.

Around the late 80's when casinos didn't open until 2.00pm over here, you had to queue up to get signed in and then it was a race to the tables, lol.
#7
General Discussion / Re: New forum starting - sort of
December 29, 2014, 07:57:04 PM
Most of the roulette forums look to be dying on their feet IMO.

vls=dead
RF.cc=fits and starts
rouletteforum.com=always was a joke and still is
rouletteforumjackpots=dead
paroli.de=dead
betselectioncc=on life support

They all resemble a bad marriage nowadays  :)) Nobody talks and it's usually only to argue.

Sorry I had nothing constructive to add.

I forgot roulette 30 which was bad because Kav has made a good effort in putting together some informative pages. [smiley]aes/thumb.png[/smiley]

#8
Quote from: BEAT-THE-WHEEL on December 13, 2014, 12:01:29 AM
I think we need to think out of box to fight random.
Just like farmers plant when the season is right, and fishermen  sail the sea when the weather is right, stay at home when the sea is rough...

Turn it on it's head BTW.

When the sea is rough, the casino is vulnerable as well. In fact, S.S. Casino has no choice but to sail into the storm. We as players can navigate our way around it.
#9
Math & Statistics / Re: How to gamble if you must!
December 10, 2014, 12:07:27 PM
For anybody who does not like maths or can't be bothered reading to the end!

The Summary

With timid play, the gambler makes a small constant bet on each game until
she is ruined or reaches the target. This turns out to be a very bad strategy in
unfair games, but does have the advantage of a relatively large expected number
of games. If you play this strategy, you will almost certainly be ruined, but at
least you get to gamble for a while.
With bold play, the gambler bets her entire fortune or what she needs to
reach the target, whichever is smaller. This is an optimal strategy in the unfair
case; no strategy can do better. But it's very quick! If you play this strategy,
there's a good chance that your gambling will be over after just a few games
(often just one!).
Amazingly, bold play is not uniquely optimal in the unfair case. Bold play
can be rescaled to produce an in¯nite sequence of optimal strategies. These
higher order bold strategies can have large expected numbers of games, depend-
ing on the initial fortune (and assuming that the casino is nice enough to allow
you to make the weird fractional bets that will be required for the strategy).
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

A lot of gamblers on forums mistakenly think flat betting is the way to go because progressions 'don't work'. Well that's not true when playing a negative expectation game. That doesn't mean you have to go out and do an 'ashley revell'. You can learn plenty from maths articles related to gambling even if you don't understand everything what's written.

#10
Math & Statistics / How to gamble if you must!
December 09, 2014, 11:07:16 PM
This is a nice read.
#11
Sports Betting Forum / Re: NFL bet 5
December 04, 2014, 11:48:14 AM
LoL rouletteKEY  :thumbsup:

I was getting excited halfway through the third quarter. Especially with the stat that the Dolphins had only come from behind in the fourth quarter to win on the road once in about the last forty attempts.

I could have backed the Dolphins at 7/4 when it was 13-6 and guaranteed a profit either way (excluding the tie) but I didn't. If the Jets didn't miss that field goal, it could have been 16-16 and I would have felt sick as a parrot laying the bet off.

Never mind, There is always next week.  :cheer:
#12
Hey guys,

Here is an interesting site. It is a live feed from the Expo Casino in Ireland. You can see players sitting down at the wheel. (It's autowheel and 90 second spins)

What I like is that there is no messing about registering accounts and giving credit card details.
Withdrawals are done in about 5-10 minutes.

Can it get any better?

check it out!

http://www.allcoincasino.com/

You can play in fun mode and they also have an instant chat facility.

**just to say that I am not an affiliate or endorsing this Casino.**

#13
Sports Betting Forum / NFL bet 5
December 01, 2014, 09:09:58 PM
I am going for an outsider tonight. I have a sneaky feeling the Jets can upset the Dolphins.

A best price of 5/2 is tempting. C'mon you Jets.  :cheer:
#14
Sports Betting Forum / Re: NFL bet 3 + 4.
December 01, 2014, 09:08:32 PM
The Bengals held on last night with a bit of help from their Coach believe it or not. (14-13)

The Giants were a big let down against the Jaguars. Up 21-0 and then make a fumble in their own in goal area and let the Jaguars right back in it. No wonder a lot of these coaches have grey hair. 25-24 to the Jaguars was the final score. A real sickener.  :stress:
#15
Sports Betting Forum / NFL bet 3 + 4.
November 30, 2014, 03:07:57 PM
The Giants should have a comfortable win against the Jaguars.  Best price I can find is 9/13.

I also like the Cincinatti Bengals and think they will dispatch Tampa Bay with a minimum of fuss.
Best price I can find for them is 11/21.

Not going to return a fortune at those prices, but a bird in the hand is worth two in the bush as the old saying goes.   :beer: