Casinos like randomness and randomness dislikes patterns.

                                    --AsymBacGuy

Hi Asym

Casinos like randomness and randomness dislikes patterns.



that's a great gambling quote.

Hi AsymBacGuy--I hope u are doing well at the tables.

You are correct. This shoe had several strong deviations. I track shoes so that I can readily see streak distributions more promptly.

I went 14-6(W-L) on this shoe which is a significantly better hit rate than is typical (for me) as well as more wagers per shoe than is typical. I track every wager, hit rate, deviation,..etc.  Most shoes if I make say 10-12 wagers my hit rate is often something like 7-5 or 5-7, 7-6,5-4, 3-5...etc. 
I wagered more than usual and actually had a couple misses (against) on the longer streaks before going with the deviation for a few consecutive Ws. I did not follow the streaks to their very end because of several atypical profiles being presented. The long singles run I actually started incrementally regressing my wager all the way back down to near my base unit/didn't want to regress below my base unit. Plus the streak was so abnormal I felt confident it "must end sometime".

A couple of the events I looked back and thought: "How did I miss that ________",....etc. 

________________________________________________________________________________________

0=B , 1=P, 3 Ties that are not shown in the following as I transferred this manually from my scoring card.

000000011001 0 111111 0

1 0 1001 0 11 0 11 0 11 0 1 0 11 0

11 0 11 0 1 0 1 0 11 0 11 0 1 0 11 0 1

0 110010000100

______________________________________________________________





Continued Success To All,

I have been on a multi-day trip and will try to elaborate more within a couple days.

I have been on a multi-week winning streak at my home market. Meaning, I have not busted a buyin in several weeks. Often I bust a buyin every 4-5 days or so in part due to my aggressive pos progression approach. I prefer not to boast or speak of winning streaks(During the ongoing streak) as not to "jinx" them. I know that's a superstition on my part.

I did bust a buyin on my current multi-day trip.


A highlight shoe on this trip was a shoe that produced 15 B singles in a row. Meaning B was stuck on 1iar(In-A-Row). Unfortunately I did not catch 15 wins in that run. Just prior to that I saw each side with approx 7iar runs. I will show the outcomes/elaborate more on this later.

Have a good week,

Personally, I will not be placing a wager on this event. It is my opinion this type of wagering is not a good look for the gambling world(or society).

To each their own I guess.

https://www.casino.org/news/polymarket-allows-gambling-on-new-orleans-jailbreak/

Good discussion.

"...@lovepreaks

Do you have a defined probability model for pattern transitions—particularly from asymmetric to symmetric (A→S) or symmetric to asymmetric (S→A)?
For example, is a 0.75 probability for A→S transitions a reasonable estimate?  ..."

Excellent Q @lovespreaks. I had a similar question but you beat me to it. You presented my exact thoughts very well.


Great reply AsymBacGuy/thx for elaborating in your response.

Asym:

"Since we need to place two bets to define the asymmetry (if the first bet was lost), yes we'll expect A to get a 0.75 p, so the A/S ratio should be 3:1.
That's in theory because in many RNG productions the number of S is way higher than 0.25(!).

Nonetheless S status is more frequent but tend to change faster than at other shufflings.
Maybe betting A-A one time is the safest pattern to look for, then betting A after S-S."


More on this great discussion in a couple days.kfb

"The fifth round NFL Draft pick is making roughly $4.6 million over the next four years. Sanders has announced what he'll be spending his first NFL paycheck on...

Shadeur Sanders:

"..."I'm not tryna buy anything," Sanders told reporters. "My signing bonus ain't that high right now.".."

Congrats to sanders for getting drafted in the fifth round. I don't watch NFL draft day shows. However, from what I understand from radio sports podcasters is Shadeur, his dad(Deon), and media all projected him to go in the first round.
Probably a dozen other QBs that were drafted in latter rounds or had to sign free agent contracts(Generally with fewer guarantees). So no one wanting him until 5th round may work in his favor.

I think the Browns will be a great fit for Sanders(For a variety of reasons). Im sure Browns VP of player personnel (Andrew Berry) will give him every possible opportunity to succeed(For a variety of reasons). Plus his salary is low enough that Browns will not feel pressured to move on from him quickly. Meaning, his salary won't really hurt their salary cap. So Shadeur will likely get several years to do something productive as per typical NFL salaries he is not costing them much.

Plus, per a sports podcast recently: Shadeur having an older veteran QB to mentor him (Deshaun Watson), may expedite his adaptation to the NFL. The podcasters suggested that Deshaun has been injured a lot. Deshaun has a guaranteed salary regardless if he plays every week or seldom(i.e., He gets paid the same). I don't know if Deshaun is the mentoring type but its my understanding he does bring several years of experience to the table.

Shadeur (from the above quote) seems to have the right attitude about his football career / money. Plus he can always fall back on his degree from the University of Colorado should his NFL career not progress as planned.

I wish him well.

alrelax above:

"...All casinos as I know it, have a private or VIP cage room or area where others cannot view the transactions.  Of course these transactions are usually geared for the larger winners.  (Which the people committing crimes against are looking for anyway)..."

Yes, and many high-limit rooms don't allow lurkers(non players) to just hang out/walk continuously around the table area(without playing). One has to at least point out a spouse or friend that's playing if they want to meander around.
However, maybe different if one is playing slots in High Limit area (or main gaming floor) and hit a jack pot. Its more difficult to disguise a big win as the casino often makes it a spectacle (The machines' sirens, bells, and flashing lights do not help either, lol). I don't play slots much(& not in HL rooms).

Plus its been my experience that employees in the cashier cage of HL rooms have also been trained to be discreet(or they just have common sense).For example, they will typically count out cash down below on the counter. Often they will ask if you want it put in envelopes,...etc. Just common sense.

"..When you cash out your chips, do not go directly to your car.  You can go to various other parts of the casino, restaurants, snack bars, hotel lobby, etc., etc., and be sure no one is following you.  So then you are putting several buffer zones between yourself and leaving in your car.  Continuously look if anyone is following you.  Not too hard to discover, especially down a few hallways, etc.  ..."

Yes,I agree. There are several things a person can do to not attract attention. Most is just common sense and not bringing attention to oneself.
Its always good to know a couple security personnel.
E.G., One can learn where employees park as that area often has higher security. Often security staff will walk staff out late at night,...etc.

*Poker players have a few tricks-to-the-trade for transporting/moving large sums of money in and out of casinos. I do not play poker but do play Bac with several poker folks. I won't post there tricks here. Again, mostly common sense.

**Most of my casinos do not have a specific and detached High-Limit room. Most of mine simply have a corner roped off or maybe a side room connected to the main table pit with ropes(With higher limit tables and buyins required to enter).

***Very seldom and issue for me as A)I seldom have massive wins at any one casino in one day, B)I can deposit as front money or ask for a check for part of the wins, transfer or wire it out,...etc.



Continued Success To All,

This is a quote from the link:

"...What's Allowed and What's Not
You're good taking one or two quick selfies just about anywhere on a casino floor these days. Most tourists do anyway. But photograph an active-play table, even in the background of your selfie, and you're taking more of a chance. In addition to potentially violating guest privacy, the casino may be concerned that your photo is part of a cheating scam.

If you want to gauge the speed of a casino's security response, then photograph one of its cashier's cages. You may not even get a warning before being escorted out. There's almost no justifiable reason a casino can see for snapping such a photo other than plotting a future robbery, such as the ones committed at Resort's World and Gold Coast in November 2022.   ..."


https://www.casino.org/news/vegas-myths-re-busted-its-illegal-to-take-photos-in-a-casino/

The following excerpt from the link below was funny:

"...What has been banished from most resort websites are those laughable descriptions of what resort fees are and why they exist.

Most resort companies claimed they were a "convenience fee" that was "requested by our guests." These mythical guests loved resort fees because they preferred not paying separately for amenities including Wi-Fi, gym access, and local phone calls.

Because you never know which travelers could be time travelers from the 1980s lacking cell phones.   ..."



https://www.casino.org/news/vegas-myths-busted-resort-fees-are-now-illegal/

This will be a good transformation for Rio. I may actually visit Rio the next time Im in LV.
It has been awhile since I gave Rio any Bac action. The last time I was at Rio the best attribute was the wide variety of Keurig coffee pods in the room. The room was adequate as best I recall(Just nothing memorable).
Same with their gaming area(Adequate but nothing memorable). Just my opinion.


https://cdcgaming.com/brief/rio-las-vegas-unveils-new-baccarat-room-in-ongoing-transformation/

alrelax above: "...Come on!!!  You have to love this:  "Wynn reached a "non-prosecution agreement" with the U.S. Department of Justice to resolve the 10-year-old investigation ..."

I concur.
Though restitution is good it would have been even better if a severe consequence was rendered(jail time) and rendered more promptly
.
re: "...10-year-old investigation [/b]..."[/color]..."
     The most important variable in the (consequence for bad behavior and reward for good behavior) system is the consequence(or reward) must be rendered expeditiously. It works the same regardless if one is doling it out in child rearing or doling out to a corporation.


Continued Success,

*Its great to see the forum back up and running.

Thanks AsymBacGuy

"...Important shoe production considerations are coming soon.

No fake randomness can beat us..."

I look forward to your future posts on this topic. Your posts are always a great read.



Continued Success To All,

The link to the whole article is at the very bottom of this post. Much of the article is mostly "elementary-level" info and suggestions. However, a couple of interesting suggestions on betting systems down about 2/3rds of the article. Though I don't wager in this manner/I'm not an advocate for any type of hedging. I still found it interesting.

Any of u play a similar approach to suggestions in the article?
Any thoughts or comments? Yea or nay??
Thanks in advance,
---------------------------------------------------------------

How to Win at Baccarat: The James Bond Strategy

This fixed betting system, inspired by Ian Fleming's character, involves covering multiple outcomes:

Place 70% of your total bet on the Banker
Place 25% on the Player
Place 5% on the Tie
For example, with a $100 total bet:

$70 on Banker
$25 on Player
$5 on Tie
This approach guarantees a win if Tie hits (typical profit of $35 with 8:1 payout) and a small win if Banker wins (profit of approximately $40 – $25 – $5 = $10). You lose only when Player wins ($70 loss offset by $25 win = $45 net loss).

The system offers frequent small wins but doesn't overcome the house edge in the long run.
__________________________________________________________________________________

Exploring the 3-2 System
This straightforward approach focuses on diversification:

Bet 3 units on the Banker
Bet 2 units on the Player
Skip the Tie bet entirely
For example, with a $50 betting round:

$30 on Banker
$20 on Player
Outcomes:

Banker wins: Profit $30 – 5% commission – $20 = $8.50
Player wins: Profit $20 – $30 = -$10
Tie: Both bets push, no gain or loss
This system produces a small profit more than half the time but still has a negative expectation over time.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

https://www.casino.org/blog/how-to-win-at-baccarat/

Hopefully the consequences for the perps will match the crime/ be rendered expeditiously. Society runs more efficiently when that occurs on a consistent basis.


https://www.casino.org/news/robbers-who-targeted-casino-winners-face-life/