Quote from: Martinnng on February 17, 2014, 10:29:33 PM
By the way, what hitrate do you consider as sufficient in sport betting?

Depends on the odds.
hitrate > 1/odds

Luck and probabilities are two different things. Probability applies to sportsbetting just as much as to roulette.
A couple of days/weeks ago we discussed in a different thread, that the long term results will converge towards the true probability of independent trials.
Of course here we have different odds and different probabilities for each pick, but we can say, that if one can achieve 75% win rate, that means the average true probability is around that number, 75%.
The betting market estimates the probabilities.
And those translate into odds and vice versa. 2.5 odds translates to 40% probability.

There is no way the market estimates an outcome at 40% probability (2.5), and Henric can bet at 75% safety. 40% and 75% are just way, way, way too far apart. No prediction is that much more efficient than the market.
But let's just say I am wrong, and he indeed has some psychic powers or whatever that would account for this incredible skill.
He can (more than) triple any investment on average after every 4 picks.
He claims to have 1-2 picks a week, let's be modest and calculate with just 1 per week.

That means 52 picks a year. Let's add a decent summer vacation 20 weeks (I wish I had that).
We are left with only 32 picks a year.
That is still 8*4 so he can triple any investment 8 times a year, that is 3^8=6561. In percentages as profit (-1 for original bankroll) 656000% interest rate a year. And I couldn't be more modest with my calculations, so the actual number (if we can believe his claims, which obviously I can't) is even much much higher than this.
Compare this to any other investment. If he has EUR10 now he is already set for life with that interest rate. These are huge red flags all over the place. How anyone could believe this is beyond me.
If it comes to gambling math is your friend, faith is your enemy.

OK... so what's the catch with Henric. At least what's the math behind it.


We have a prediction with odds 2.74. That translates to a 35% chance of winning. We have to pay if we have profit after 4 picks. We risk 50% of our current bankroll at every bet.
That means we get a bankroll multiplier 0.5 if we lose and 1.87 if we win. (winnings are 0.5*1.74=0.87 plus we get to keep our original bankroll)
We need to win at least 3 bets to be profitable, because...
2 wins 2 losses: 1.87^2*0.5^2=0.874225
3 wins 1 loss: 1.87^3*0.5=3.2696015
4 wins: 1.87^4=12.22830961
With a 35% chance of success on each bet, the chance of him having at least 3 winning picks is around 13%, if he really has some skill, that can go up to 15% or maybe 20%. Winning all 4 bets is around 1-2%.
So we have 80-85% chance to end up with losses, but then he doesn't lose anything.
If he happens to be lucky and wins at least 3 of those bets (15-20% chance), everyone will end up with 3.27 times the original bankroll. If that was EUR 200, then the profit is EUR 454, so you are expected to pay 20% of that, EUR 91. Multiplied by 47 members EUR 4267. So that seems to be the catch. He likely won't get anything out of it and people will likely lose, but with a little luck he gets a lot of money without risking anything, but a credibility of an e-mail address.
Of course the remaining 3 picks can have a different probability and odds, that changes the numbers a bit, but doesn't really change the idea behind the scheme. So his aim is probably to get the initial payment with some luck, but eventually the EV will start to kick in.
This is my opinion, consider it a warning, I might be wrong. If I end up being wrong, I will be ashamed of myself. But I am confident people will lose money after just a little while. Likely in the first 4 picks.

About 2 weeks ago (when we heard about this site) there were 38 wins and 6 losses. That was about 3 months time, from end of October.
Since then we have 5 wins and 3 losses. That's about 2 weeks time. This is a realistic result. 38 wins and 6 losses @1.8 average odds isn't.
Is it a coincidence, that the winrate went down just after we heard about the site? 8 games aren't much, so it may be just a small dip. I would be cautious though. I think this is actually the winrate they can keep up with.

Quote from: HarryJ on February 08, 2014, 04:02:20 PM
In your 10 coin toss example, if the first 4 tosses all produced heads, the next 6 would have to produce 5 tails to restore equilibrium. An unlikely scenario yet we ve all seen it happen.

That's the thing, it doesn't restore equilibrium. That is what most people misunderstand about probability. The most likely scenario after 4 heads is for the remaining 6 to produce 3 heads and 3 tails. (Having a total of 7 heads and 3 tails)
You may think this renders what I wrote earlier wrong, but it doesn't.
If you think about the ratio of heads and tails after the 4 heads, it is 100% heads. Think about what another heads does to that ratio and what a tails does to it.

What I quoted from wikipedia earlier:
[attach=1]
I went with 18/37 win probability and 1 unit flat bet.
You can see that at only 10-20 spins EV is very close to 0 and the SD gives the illusion that you can win. Even at 600 spins the EV+SD is above 0, but you can already see, that it will go below 0.


And the reason why the SD isn't increasing fast enough is what I explained with coin tosses.

A single coin toss can be either heads(H) or tails(T) with equal probability. 50%-50%


2 coins tosses have 4 outcomes: HH,HT,TH,TT. Notice, that there are two "1T-1H" scenarios. So you have 25% for 2H another 25% for 2T and 50% for 1T-1H. Already seeing the higher probability there at the true probability.


3 tosses: HHH,HHT,HTH,HTT,THH,THT,TTH,TTT. The 8 scenarios have the same probability, but notice, there is only one with 3H and one with 3T, yet there are 3 with 1T-2H and another 3 with 2T-1H. This makes these results 3 times more probable than the others.


10 coin tosses...
There are 2^10 = 1024 scenarios. 252 of those give 5 heads and 5 tails. Yet only one of them will give you all heads and another one will give you all tails. So the 5H5T has 252 times the probability the 10T has.


All tosses are independent, yet the more we play we have a lot more scenarios with results closer to the true probability. It is due to the fact, that out of all the different scenarios a lot more gets you to more equal distributions.


This is why the binomial distribution looks the way it does. And this also explains why the longer we play the more likely we get closer to the true probability.

Quote from: HarryJ on February 07, 2014, 08:33:39 PM
what causes the difference between the long and the short run??

"As the number of rounds increases, eventually, the expected loss will exceed the standard deviation, many times over. From the formula, we can see the standard deviation is proportional to the square root of the number of rounds played, while the expected loss is proportional to the number of rounds played. As the number of rounds increases, the expected loss increases at a much faster rate. This is why it is impossible for a gambler to win in the long term. It is the high ratio of short-term standard deviation to expected loss that fools gamblers into thinking that they can win."
Source

Anywhere. No bookie will give you 1.375.
You should attach screenshot either here, or to me in PM to show me where you see those odds. It just can't be right.

I don't have experience with PP, but the draw option there and seeing that other bookies price the AH -1.5 @2, it is more than likely the case.

AH bets don't have draw option. A draw for AH bets returns your stake.
On paddy you can bet on draw. That very likely means a draw will not return your stake. That accounts for the higher odds.
This makes the handicap -1 PAOK bet on paddy equal to an AH-1.5 bet.

You should be able to find odds around 1.78 now. It is a lot less than 1.87, but if this bet has a similar probability of winning as the earlier tips, then even though it has less value with the lower odds, it is still highly positive EV, which is always good enough for me.
The question is, does it really have similar winning probability, what the earlier results indicate. Which is around 85% (ignoring void bets).
1.78 odds means, the bet has positive expected value if the probability of winning is above 56.18%. Earlier results indicate, that picks have much higher probability, therefore higher value, even at 1.78.
This doesn't mean you should't try to find the best odds possible. Higher odds is always better. But setting up and maintaining lots of accounts is extra work. If you can really consistently win at sportsbetting, then it is worth the extra effort to set up several accounts for the higher profit.

The full results seem to good to be true.
After 49 bets, the average odds is around 1.8, and there are 6 lost bets, 5 void bets and 38 won bets.
I am really skeptical just because how insanely good these results are, but will follow anyway.


Edit:
If the odds were around only 1.2, they'd still be profitable with that win rate. And they are all around 1.8. Come on... this can't be real. Still following though, just to see what is the catch. I am sure there is one, but hoping for the opposite, so I could quit my job. 

I have been following this topic for a while, and I gotta say, I am impressed.
You are either quite lucky or you know what you are doing.
Do you choose your picks based on only statistics available on the betting site(s), or do you actually follow these games as well and have a personal opinion which also factors in your picks?

Quote from: BrenoGarcia on August 15, 2013, 11:38:10 AM

Do not go down that road...


Try to learn about trading bets. It's the same idea of ​​investing in stocks, only in this case, in sports actions.

I disagree.
Trading is neither better nor worse than simple betting. It is just different. Someone prefers it, others don't.
And why couldn't we trade in the handicap market?


Handicap betting is where we give an advantage to one team and a disadvantage to the other.
You add the number to the final score and that modified result is used to evaluate whether you win or not.
For example you bet on a team with -1.5 handicap. Your team wins 1-0, you still lose, because with the modifier your team lost. Your team has to win by at least 2 goals for you to win.


The .5 handicap is the easiest to evaluate, because there is no possibility of draw. If you have whole numbers, then the draw gives your stake back. For example if you bet on a team with -1 handicap and the team wins 1-0, your bet is evaluated as draw, and you get your stake back.


There are even more options in between these. It is either shown as "1/4";"3/4", or ".25";".75". These are essentially 2 bets in one. If you bet on a team with -1.25, that means half of the money is on -1, the other half is on -1.5. Some places show these as "-1 & -1.5".


In my examples you see negative numbers, that means our team gets a disadvantage. If you get a positive number that gives your team an advantage. For example you bet on a team with +1.5 and your team loses 0-1, your bet still wins. The weaker teams get the advantage the stronger the disadvantage.