Hi AsymBacGuy.

re: "...Overall we could accept the idea that asym=sym, yet we should be more interested about how many sym events will shift into asym events or vice versa and, more importantly, at which level of asymmetry or symmetry. Per every shoe played.  ..."

Qs: Lets say you have tracked intra-shoe streams of info and concluded the next "spot" is a + bet. So you have concluded the current Sym patterns will change to Asym.
     So my Q is do you give more credibility to a "spot" if that very next potentially winning spot would be in row one (per tote board layout)  vs lets say that spot would be at say row four or six, eight, or whatever Non-One row,..etc. ??

Thx as always,

Thx Vic for the links. You are correct as they are great reads.

*I like the RouletteIdeas site. Very crisp/clean format with an abundance of wise words from veteran gamers.

Cheers,kfb

It is my opinion FREEPLAY is very important to most players. Although I do not play to get free play or more free play. However, in recent years I do pay attention to free play and that may sway my decision about playing at a particular property vs another(less free play) property. All other variables being equal. I never play any more or less(wager size or play longer) as a function of free play. So if two casinos require a 50mile drive in opposite directions and one offers $200 and the other $100, then Im likely to visit $200Casino. If Bac tables are the same,...etc.

E.G., I'm currently on a multi-day gaming trip. On the first day I had the following FreePlay amounts at three casinos shown with my net conversion: $100--163, 100--100, 60--99. Historically, I have always played the same wager size and buyin at each of these properties.
These amounts may seem miniscule. However, the EV is obviously very high on free play/
FP should be optimized as a part of any serious gamers' arsenal. Although one shouldnt play above their budget just for FP, IMO.

*I once received a $500 free play(and the casino allowed one to take back the free play voucher on a win). My point of view is that I would prefer free play/a free room over all other incentives such as food offers, giftshop, upgraded room, special dinner/drawings, limo rides, chocolate/fruit basket in the room..etc.


An excerpt from the article:
"...The study doesn't necessarily label free-play as categorically bad or ineffective, Lucas said, it just shows that casinos are not doing a very good job of measuring it...."


https://vegasinc.lasvegassun.com/news/2024/aug/05/are-free-play-offers-a-waste-of-money-for-casinos/


Continued Winning To All,

Thx Bally6354 for you comments/ I agree.

"... When you reflect on things looking back, it's clear to see now that Gizmo was well ahead of the curve in relation to where a lot of other guys were at and what's impressive about that is that it was all mostly self taught as well. ..."

Several times in gizmos' commentary through the years he made generic type references that I didn't understand clearly. Do you or anybody else have thoughts on this.

Q: What did gizmo mean or what was he referencing when he stated generic phrases such as "the elegant pattern" or "its been happening since 2006",..etc.


Thx in advance,

edit

ACV= Average Card Value


thx,kfb

Hi AsymBacGuy/hope you had a good week at the tables.

re:Your post awhile back about your approx edge of 3.46% net as shown in the excerpt below. I meant to ask you a question back when u posted but it was late at night /I guess I forgot about it.

Q: Is this 3.46% correlated to the ACV of 3.46 or just coincidental???
Thx in advance.
-------------------------------------------

From post #1233

"..Our estimated edge

Since we cannot use our algorithms in real play and not trusting (mainly for technical reasons) online games, we're forced to approximate at best an already approximating way of considering an average card distribution. Nonetheless at the end our average edge lines up at around 3.46% after vig.
It's a real big advantage but unfortunately performing huge fluctuations related to the actual shoe card distribution..."

Hi RouletteDevil

"If anyone out there who still uses this forum, anyone playing the Nolley Molly on the dozens? "

Personally I do not play the nolley molley/ play very little roulette. However, there are a lot of good posts/discussions on the forum.
A poster Gizmotron (aka gizmo) studied roulette for decades and posted many good essays here(maybe on other forums too but not sure). I do not fully grasp 100% of his methodology. However, I play Bac with a professional poker player that has found a lot of success from gizmos writings(He plays roulette about 20% of his table time).

The past few years have been very lucrative for him @ roulette. He reads on this forum though I am not aware of his posting on this forum. I will try to coax him into posting his thoughts on gizmos' methods. Maybe other rouletters will add some thoughts about gizmo et al systems.



Best of luck to you

I find the part in bold very interesting:Baccarat hold was 26.7% versus 16.4% in the prior year...

Baccarat offering wagers with a H.E. at approx 1.15% yet a hold of 26.7%.


 Nevada/Las Vegas first quarter
"...For the Las Vegas Strip, table game hold was 18.9% versus 14.8% the prior year. Baccarat hold was 26.7% versus 16.4% in the prior year..."



https://cdcgaming.com/wall-street-bets-vegas-strip-room-rates-golden-entertainment-penn-entertainment-nevada-las-vegas-first-quarter/

Hi Asym

"...So less is more, by any means. Meaning that lower is the amount of our bets better will be our "precision" of being more right than wrong. At the cost of missing some profitable situations that anyway itlr will save us a lot of money...."

     I concur. This is one of most important attributes a successful player can posses(i.e., selecting or shopping for the best value bet).
I observe many players approaching the game like someone entering a shopping mall on payday. They buy a lot of merchandise(bets) that are not priced at a good value.

One should look at baccarat wagers just like shopping. Sometimes the wager is worth more than what we pay for it and sometimes wagers are selling for a price greater than their value. Optimally we should shop to pay $48 for a $52 dollar wager. Sometimes there are even better deals. However, often there may only be a half dozen or so good deals per shoe.

Cheers,

The old western world adage: "God Created Man And Colt Made Them Equal."
Of Course referring to Sam Colt(In the mid 1800s he formed what later became Colt Firearms Co.).

A link below showing the best concealed carry weapons for 2025.

*Do any of you put forth extra effort to protect yourselves traveling to/from your casinos. What do you do if you have a large win and must walk or travel to your hotel off premises? Maybe you don't want to leave Front money at that particular casino/don't want a check,..etc. Maybe traveling home at night with large sums of cash? ETC??

Obviously one is not allowed to carry a weapon into a casino(At least not that I've seen in the USA).

**An interesting incident at a casino. Several years ago I was playing at a casino near Joplin,Mo. USA.
This was a small casino and the only two Bac tables were adjacent to the only Craps table. I was positioned approx 20' from the  craps table and my view faced most of the Craps players from the front. So I could also see the floor area behind them. There was a large floor area and all of a sudden I see three large security guards walking across the casino floor. They were rapidly approaching /toward the backside of the craps players standing three to each side of the stickman.

I could tell something was about to happen from the focused and serious look on the security officers face. However, I just thought maybe someone had stolen other players chips or maybe a pickpocket had been flagged by security cameras,...etc. The three security officers walked directly behind one of the stuff players without hesitation. One officer on each side of the player and positioned their legs against his and placed their hands on top of players shoulder as if they were going to face plant him over the craps table. The third security officer pulls his gun(looked like a 38 or similar revolver). He puts the barrel into the players back and says: "If you move an inch I'll kill you."
Of course everyone was watching at that point and all table games nearby had suddenly stopped. They secure him against the table/ remove his gun that was in a concealed small-of-back holster(That I guess was showing through his jacket). He also had what looked like a 15" hunting knife on his side in a leather holster. They walk him away after removing his weapons and contents from pockets. I heard later through a dealer the arrested player just claimed he "forgot" to remove his CC weapon. The knife was legal. I recall thinking this is like the old wild west days. Supposedly that casino utilized some sort of metal detection and the main entrance but this guy entered through the parking garage area. I have never noticed metal detectors at this particular casino(To this day). I heard they banned him for 90 days/ he received a fine.


---------------------------------------------------
https://gundigest.com/handguns/concealed-carry/best-concealed-carry-handguns

2025 Best Concealed Carry Guns
     I own two of the Overall Top Pick(Sig Sauer P365 9mm CC(Concealed Carry). I find them satisfactory as they are easy to conceal in a belt or leg holster.


Overall Pick: Sig P365
Runner-Up: Springfield Hellcat
Best High-end Carry: Wilson Combat EDC X9
Best Classic Carry: Glock 19
Best Budget: PSA Dagger
Best Carry Revolver: Ruger LCR in .327 Federal Magnum
Best .357 Magnum: Ruger LCRx 3-Inch
Best .380 ACP: Ruger LCP MAX
Best Easy To Manipulate: Smith & Wesson Equalizer
Best Backwoods Carry: Glock 20

"STOP doing what isn't working."

    -E.B. Tucker (Gold/other financial investments author), Tony Robbins(motivational speaker), et als.

Don't Hate Good Promotions, Embrace Them

  A good article about playing more efficiently, maximizing offers, and incentives during peak promotional periods.   

https://travelzork.com/don't-hate-good-promotions-embrace-them/

Unbelievable Luck: Witnessing the Biggest Baccarat Wins of All Time

This was a good read. I play with a gentleman that deals Bac in Tunica. I once asked him what was the best win he ever dealt. He said it wasn't the largest ever win but a young guy about 25yo bought in with 3K and in about 45mins walked with 80K. He said the player didn't appear to be following a predetermined system but seemed to be just guessing and relying on intuition. He had never seen this player before or after and he declined to show a players card at buyin.

https://cardpaymentguru.co.uk/biggest-baccarat-wins/

Good topic and discussion lovepreaks. I look forward to your further discussion with AsymBacGuy.




Continued Success,

Key statements from Konnikova:

"...Maria Konnikova isn't afraid to call out the cheating that goes on in poker, and casinos' unwillingness to deal with the problem. .."


"... Her book about cheating includes poker, baccarat, and sporting events; tennis has had some problems. Even fly fishing has..."


"When I meet people and they ask what my new book is about, I say cheating. Their faces light up and say they have a story for me." Konnikova said, laughing.  ..."



I speak with a lot of casino executives and one of their main concerns is the collusion between player/dealers. This goes on all the time and often is a large syndicate or group of players in a specific region of the USA.

I play Bac with an octogenarian that has played with many of the all time greats in poker. Most of  you from the Poker circuit would readily recognize his name. According to him many players constantly try to cheat or "fudge" a little(Not just poker players but Bac, roulette, craps,..etc). It is his opinion most casinos know who they are but just choose to monitor for awhile until they can ID more in the syndicate.


https://cdcgaming.com/maria-konnikova-poker-champ-describes-humble-beginnings-and-cheating-problem/