The basic principle is that more hands we try to guess higher will be the probability to lose.

We want to get the lesser impact of symmetrical hands so enhancing the role of the asymmetrical counterpart.
Whenever at the shoe played symmetrical hands tend to be more clustered than average (more than two times in a row by different back-to-back qualities), we could think to stop our betting for that shoe waiting for a new one.

After all symmetrical patterns tend to deny a sure asymmetrical card distribution, in fact a large part of consecutive symmetrical patterns come out from unsound math results, so itlr it's easier to go broke by chasing S patterns than A patterns.

Moreover and differently to any other strategical method, S patterns and A patterns tend to be very well balanced, a thing that could lure us to adopt a (multilayered) progressive plan.

In order to get a sure and safe edge different approaches are to be taken, always by registering fictional losses before betting. Some of them were already discussed here.

1- Bet A one time after A

If you wait that A came out isolated two times in a row (no A clusters happening) then betting toward A-A one time, you'll humiliate the house. If such attempt is lost, wait for another opportunity. 
The edge is so great but so (relatively) rare to happen that you'll risk to get asleep at the tables before crossing it.


2- Bet A-A-A after A-A

Such trigger is so powerful that you need just one isolated AA pattern to happen before betting.
Be careful of RNG productions where it's more prudent to either bet for any AAA cluster no matter what or to wait that two A-A came out before wagering.


3- Bet A after a single S

No need to wait any fictional loss, betting A after a single S will always produce a long term edge, especially at the random walk we've devised (but it costs 8 million of bucks to know it  , so with some work you'll find it for free). Caution must be taken at RNG productions (see point #4)


4- Bet A after a S-S double

Such attack works at unrandom productions and at this point you know what I'm referring to.

5- Isolated A linked with clustered S

This point should be splitted into four categories:

a) A-S-S-A-S-S-A

b) A-S-S-S...-A-S-S-A

c) A-S-S-A-S-S-S...

d) A-S-S-S...A-S-S-S...

Such scenarios are quite rare to happen, obviously just one of them (d) will deny any W situation within a 6-betting range.
Nonetheless we've seen that when in doubt about the real nature of the production we could start to "limit" S events after they had come out twice in a row and even A isolated events could need a low deviation to happen before thinking to get them clustered.
Then and generally speaking, clustered S events tend to make more room to A clusters (so obviously denying subsequent S patterns to be isolated).

Finally "long" isolated A sequences (actually we are interested about lenghts of two not going to three or more) are way more probable to come out intertwined by S isolated events than S clustered events.

See you next week

as. 

Hi KFB! Thanks!

Among the side bets I think the only unbeatable one is the tie, so I admire the gentleman. It would be great if you can grasp some hints about his tie strategy.
For some reasons I'm pretty certain that he plays only at RNG shoes (new generation of shuffle machines), am I right?

About the first win I've read your posts and I agree on that.

It's obvious that we can't know precisely when we'll get that first win, yet the average distribution of the previous shoes (and the texture of the actual shoe) will help us to define the deviations of such attempt.

Here's a brief list of real shoes about the very first situation of each shoe eliciting a W attempt:

L
W
W
L
W
L
W
W
L
L
W
L
W
L
L
L
L
L
W
L
W
L
W
W
L
L
W
L
L
L
W
W
W

Total L=18 W=15.
Of course of those 18 L situations many will win at the second attempt of the same pattern.


Now the first W attempt made on the second pattern of each shoe:

W
W
W
L
L
L
W
W
L
L
W
L
L
L
L
W
W
W
W
L
L
W
L
W
W
W
L
L
W
W
L
W
W
 
L=15 W=18

That's an exact specular situation seen above for the first pattern.

Naturally W/L results were taken with no precise reason, so the permutation issue could provide a 18 L streak or a 18 W streak for each first or second pattern, underlying the importance that it's not how long a L or W consecutive streak happen at each pattern but what happens next in terms of doublets
(W-W, W-L, L-W or L-L).

We see that in the example displayed, even though W were inferior than L, the probability to get W-W is increased and the same is about L-W and such process could be evaluated for every subsequent patterns we wish to register.

Shoes presenting long L first attempt situations happen but they are well balanced by the shoes presenting long W first attempt situations and when we consider outcomes in form of doublets (for example) we could have a better picture of what is going on.

More later

as.

Just an example about first W attempt chasing the asymmetry. (37505, MGM Grand)

L, L, W, L, L, W, W, W, L, L, L, L, L, W, L, L, W

L=11, W=6.

A constant wagering toward W would be unprofitable, to say the least.

To simplify the issue we ignore vig.

Betting toward W clusters would result into a -1 loss.

Betting W after one L would result into a -4 units loss.

Betting W after L-L would result into a +2 profit.

Betting W after L-L-L would result into a -1 loss.

Now let's consider the second W attempt at the same shoe:

L, L, W, L, W, W, L, L, W

L=5, W=4

Betting toward W clusters would result into a break even situation

Betting W after one L would result into a -1 loss

Betting W after L-L would result into a +2 profit

No L-L-L situations happened at second W attempts.

as.

Any shoe is supposed to deal a fair number of first winning situations at different ranges (gaps): 

1- Immediate or back to back clusters of first W patterns (from W-W to multiple long W-W-W-W-....patterns)

2- A W after a first L attempt (1-gap)

3- A W after two first L attempts (2-gap)

4- A W after three first L attempts (3-gap)

5- And so on...

Obviously every bac player's aim will be to get an immediate win or back-to-back W events, but constantly chasing such opportunities will expose the bettor to a lot of natural variance.

Furthermore, if each class of first W patterns will be proportionally distributed by a kind of random coin flip succession (W/L instead of H/T), we aren't going to nowhere as what we earned previously will be erased later and what we've lost previously cannot get a sensible chance to be balanced soon by future counter patterns.

Actually at baccarat things are quite different, meaning that each step will be efficiently balanced by a kind of propensity not happening at real random coin flip tosses, meaning that what's more likely to happen remains more likely to happen; we just let the number of shoes to increase after having classified some negative deviations considered at every category.

For example, if we are looking for a FIRST W after having considered each range category failure, the probability of success belonging to the same category will be more and more oriented toward our favor as symmetry is not the norm but a kind of "exception".
Providing to set up a limit of negative deviations as at baccarat many hands can get a weird direction just for one card impact.

I've written several times here that just one hand could transform a more probable expected heterogeneous pattern into a long unexpected homogeneous one (so breaking a sure more natural flow): Pros rely upon betting toward more probable situations, recreational players and tourists like to wager toward "endless positive patterns".

The vast majority of shoes will produce patterns belonging to the 1, 2 and 3 categories, those we're really interested to classify.


Anyway categories #1 and #2 are so strong that after a couple of negative deviations, a simple multilayered progressive plan will make the job, even knowing that some productions need the #4 category to happen before betting.

Once a category reaches the #4 or #5 category we're not interested to bet at that shoe as what was more natural to happen was transformed into "strong S deviations" just by coincidental factors (more often than not, of course).

Next time some examples extracted by real shoes.

as.

Best bac players are capable to estimate how many first or second (or whatever) winning/losing ranges are more likely to show up in relationship of the actual shoe texture.

Regular bac players however only rely about long or steady univocal situations that anyway must happen sooner or later.

But the most important difference between the two populations is that the former category will bet a way inferior number of hands than the latter category, in some way teaching us that W/L ranges are more limited than we might think of.

Taking the issue from another perspective and over simplyfing it, on average winning situations are shorter and far between than what regular players hope for, whereas losing situations happening at some shoes cannot be limited by any method/attack/procedure/philosophy for intrinsic statistical features.

"Sh.i.t" often happens in clusters and thinking to try to bet toward such "stuff" (so inverting a normal method) is one of the major mistake why many bankrolls go directly in the casinos' trays.

That's why we must set up empirically some limiting values of relative frequency in order to bet what should be more probable to happen at the same situation running infinite times.

More later

as.

A possible strategy applied to shuffle machines allegedly using a RNG software:

1) Bet A after A one time and bet A after S-S one time.

2) Be careful when two or more derived roads will get plenty of S situations.
In fact and more often than not a real random model will deny simultaneous S clusters happening at more than one random walk.

3) Tie rich shoes should be treated with a lot of caution. The same about shoes resolving hands by utilizing 6 cards.

4) More S patterns had come out in the initial/intermediate portions of the shoe and lesser will be the probability to encounter LONG A events.

5) Register how many consecutive times you have lost (for real or fictionally) by chasing an A pattern.

6) Nothing wrong by gambling for long A clustered patterns (lower than standard unit), yet at RNG productions they are relatively rarer than at other form of shufflings.

7) A progressive multilayered plan betting toward A-A (one time) and toward A after crossing S-S cannot lose by any means.
I mean there's no natural negative variance capable to overcome such propensities, especially if we'll wait for a kind of negative deviation to happen.

It's possible that knowing this, the RNG is instructed to deal a lesser number of A clusters and a superior number of S isolated events. So mimicking a real random model.
In this instance, privilege the A event to be bet after one or two isolated A patterns happened.

9) To get a strong advantage we need to win more hands at the first betting attempt than at the second one. So meaning that what we're really looking for is a "first bet" winning cluster.
Therefore consecutive wins at the second betting attempts should be considered as a kind of "backup" plan

as.

The last passage of my previous post is:

...we can safely conclude that we're dealing with pseudorandomness rather than with supposedly "normal fluctuations" dictated by a pure randomness.

OoOoO

Knowing that long term data extracted by the same production will approach more and more to the B=50.68% and P=49.32% winning percentages doesn't necessarily mean that we're dealing with a perfect random world.
It's the common mistake almost every expert will conclude after being asked whether baccarat could be a beatable game.

Those conclusions are biased as:

A- They assume for certain that ALL bac productions are perfectly random;
B- They take for granted that every single spot coming out along the course of each shoe will present the same independent features.

Actually once we have approximated at best the real random or not random nature of the shoe we're playing at, bac productions will form huge or moderate "jumps" in winning probability even though  the majority of hands dealt are EV-.


#A point cannot be resolved by taking care of the final results, it needs more complicated issues to be evaluated as there are various "imperfect" form of shufflings employed to deal bac shoes.

#B point had found solid evidences (according to RVM and M.v.Smoluchoswki works) that various situations aren't so randomly placed, so making more probable the apparition of some patterns than others.

Both points rely upon the average probability of the S or A patterns distribution at the infinite random walks we can build from the original BP sequence.
Such probability could be estimated by "levels of apparition" (1, 2) in relationship of the actual production we're dealing with.
Since the shoe is a finite S/A proposition, we have plenty of opportunities to detect how much and foremost when things are more likely to change (OR NOT).


Professor Spiegelhalter wrote that "Most random number generators are entirely deterministic and contain no randomness at all".

So it could happen that at the casino you're playing at, a RNG software connected in the shuffling machine will distribute cards by NON RANDOM parameters.

Therefore treat every shoe dealt with a lot of caution, it's like betting a negative count shoe at black jack.

Good news is that at "no random" RNG productions, things tend to be more clustered than isolated, meaning that the "bad" tends to come out more clustered than average but giving more room to "good" clustered events.

When in doubt and whenever "unnatural" symmetrical patterns come out consecutively in quantity and especially in quantity, consider that shoe as unplayable.
Unfortunately at most RNG productions S>A, as cards are not clumped but distributed by a "number scheme" not fitting the random requisites.

Never ever change your betting scheme, play for A and never for S.
Itlr you'll make a lot of money.

as.

As professor emeritus of statistics at University of Cambridge D. Spiegelhalter stated in his book, random is often "clumpy", so lacking of "regularity".
 

Hence whenever things seem to be "too regular" for long (multiple shoes), we should raise our suspicions that the production isn't random.

Obviously we might think that a kind of "regular model" could be easily beaten but it's not the case at baccarat.

A coin flip study found that per every 20 tosses, there's a 78% probability of getting at least a 4 streak.
And the probability of getting streaks not superior than two (a double streak) is just 2%.

Now I'm figuring out what you are thinking about the last finding: "Hey, at baccarat there are a lot of sequences producing singles/doubles for many hands, we can't believe of that 2% percentage".
And actually bac hands are not coin flip successions.

Remember that among all patterns, at baccarat doubles are the most likely occurence, then there's always the "random" factor to be examined at both coin flip and bac productions.

Then "clumpy" could be interpreted as the dynamic propensity of getting things either more slight concentrated than diluted by an exact or near expected probability to appear.
And at baccarat doubles (for their high probability to appear) could be easily come out clustered (that is by a back-to-back fashion).

Therefore symmetry and asymmetry could be viable tools not to simply ascertain what's more probable to come out next, but to make an estimate about the effective randomness of the production.

As sayed numerous times here, paradoxically we are in better shape to guess "more due situations" when the production is supposed to be either perfectly random or affected by a huge unrandom bias then in the other miriad of intermediate possibilities.

Moreover at baccarat random clumpiness gets an average probability to appear in terms of quantity and frequency and when such values tend to be disregarded for long we can safely conclude that we're dealing with pseudorandomness othan with supposedly "normal fluctuations" dictated by a pure randomness.

More later

as.

For obvious reasons concepts examined here are quite simplified. 

Every soul knows that RNG provides pseudo random successions as they need an initial "starting seed" to properly work.
Real random RNG sequences are generated via atmospheric noise and frankly we can safely rule out their role at baccarat productions.

So whenever cards are arranged by a RNG software, we know that the subsequent card distribution will be pseudo random, so virtually presenting a kind of bias.
It's not an easy task to detect when and how a supposedly more likely situation should be entitled to come out, so we could start to study how different sub successions would perform on average at those pseudo RNG sequences.

In our opinion one of the tools that would help us most is the detectability to  spot "more likely" A or S patterns as key cards or math advantaged two-card situations cannot be symmetrically or asymmetrically distributed for long unless for short term variance issues.

Here a brief list of RNG shoes coming out from the same source (as always A=+1 and S= -3)

1) A=13, S=5

2) A=19, S=5

3) A=16, S=4

4) A=11, S=6

5) A=12, S=5

6) A=12, S=5

7) A=22, S=4

A=12, S=5

9) A=13, S=6

10) A=6, S=5

11) A=13, S=5

12) A=13, S=6

13) A=18, S=4

14) A=10, S=6

15) A=13, S=2

16) A=5, S=3

17) A=9, S=6

18) A=11, S=6

19) A=17, S=3

20) A=20, S=2

21) A=13, S=5

22) A=18, S=3

23) A=13, S=5

24) A=18, S=5

25) A=16, S=4

26) A=19, S=3

27) A=16, S=3

28) A=11, S=5

29) A=14, S=4

30) A=6, S=5

31) A=16, S=8

32) A=9, S=7

33) A=17, S=2

Total number of A= 451, S= 154 (x3= 462)

As sayed above, the S events will slightly overcome the A events counterpart, anyway the A/S model is well balanced (as expected).

Now let's see HOW those S patterns had shown up:

-75 times as isolated (singled)

-29 times as clustered (two or more times in a row)

About those 29 times S patterns came out:

20 times they came out double clustered and 7 times clustered by a more than two level (2 S patterns haven't limited for coming at the end of the shoe)

Now about the A patterns:

- 97 times as clustered

- 25 times as isolated.

Even though this sample is insignificantly small, we see that RNG software productions will differ from other form of shufflings where a kind of "clumping card factor" works more extensively, so privileging the A events.

Nonetheless, when we deal with pure numbers (no matter how random or unrandom placed) we're getting a very strong advantage, providing to carefully selecting the spots we'll we wager at.

RNG productions tend not to elicit any S isolated situation, maybe to make a multilayered progressive scheme at S-S vs S-S-S-...patterns that will be surprisingly balanced along the course of the shoes encountered.

On the other end and due to a kind of "unnatural" S clustering effect, RNG productions will make way more probable to cross A clustered patterns of any lenght, especially when one or two A isolated situations came out.

Even knowing this, there's no possibility to set up a RNG software capable to get rid of the A clustering effect happening at the infinite random walks we can build from the original BP succession.

Summarizing:

When finite RNG sequences are taken as a form of randomness, more probable situations are spottable along the way.
In fact, RNG successions are totally incapable to fit the RVM definition of randomness and without any effort to prove otherwise, RNG can't provide real random productions by definition.

Actually we can't give a lesser fk about complicated statistical/math formulas swearing that what we have to deal with is a constant perfect random model.

Perfect randomness doesn't exist and for that matter even the "probability" concept doesn't exist.

See you in a couple of days.

as.

In his must read post ("wagering smart"), Alrelax written this:

* Because you can only win a smaller amount of wagers in any session unless it is a rare session.

That's one more reason to consider every session as totally independent from the previous ones.
Or more precisely that the "very good" is quite rare to happen and of course that the most likely expectation we'll get is to lose (in absence of a carefully conceived plan).

We've seen one million of times that the "session" concept doesn't exist, unless for actual conditions we suspect to be "too random" or "not random".

In fact casinos' profits come out from:

-HE
-negative variance (NV) for the players

players profits could only comeout from:

-positive variance (PV)

Since NV=PV and the HE works only for the house, NV+HE > PV yesterday, now and in the future.

The only tool we could exploit at our advantage is to someway restrain the NV by taking care of the actual "random" conditions and this can't be done by stopping an attack after one or two losses or by modifying the betting amount but to  register and classify several results springing from the allegedly same production and to adhere at most at the actual situation we're dealing with.

More later about S/A ratios.

as.

Excellent post!

as.

Since at baccarat a player can virtually bet up to $500k or more per hand, casinos want to be sure that shoes offered won't present any detectable bias, so they rely upon the best random shufflings.
Technically it's not the BP results' distribution that matters (with all the infinite derived roads) but the rank card distribution.

Good news is that there's a relationship between BP results and rank card distribution, now I'm adding a new factor that is the B/P hands gap.

Smaller is the B/P hands gap (especially if BP deviations seem to be "too much" restrained along the course of a shoe) and higher will be the probability to get "undetectable" patterns because such productions tend to get "too many" overalternating events that do not correspond with natural coin flip distributions.
Obviously I'm not referring to long chopping lines or short streaks, just a "weird" propensity to not producing a more natural deviation belonging to a binomial proposition.

On the other end, rare shoes will produce a higher than expected number of B or P deviations, so in some sense what lacks in such productions is the "average" distribution.

If we split the possible patterns into 1) an overalternating mood (OA), 2) moderate or strong deviations (MSD) and 3) average deviations (AD), we'll see that the most part of shoes will belong to the 1+2 category rather than the more exploitable 3 category typical of more common random shoes.

What classifies gambling games is the absolute uncertainty about the next outcomes, yet a decent number of statistical deviations must happen and of course main part of OA and MSD belong to the extremes of the spectrum.

A kind of symmetrical or asymmetrical plan is hugely affected by such propensity as low deviations make more probable to encounter S patterns than A patterns, that's why itlr S>A.

So when too many hands seem to be 6-card resolved, think that the symmetry will be predominant (after all ties come out way more often when 6 cards are used) and the same when the BP ratio seems to get very low deviations along the shoe's course.

Nothing wrong by taking the S side when proper conditions are met, yet the asymmetry will reign supreme especially when S patterns had shown up too often than expected at previous shoes.

Clustered symmetrical patterns

Clustered symmetrical patterns (that is S-S or S-S-S and so on) happening at a shoe make more probable the formation of another symmetrical pattern at the same shoe, the reason beyond that won't be discussed here.

More specifically, different productions are more or less probable to deal S patterns of some level where of course the main class happening will be 1 (single S) or 2 (double S).

Almost always when clustered S events happen, there's more room to get an A pattern clustered at any level (A-A or A-A-A, etc) as rank cards cannot be arranged to constantly get symmetrical situations for long (statistically impossible when 3 or more different random walks are considered).

After all it's a lot more probable that occasional HS players (those who can seriously hurt casinos) will bet toward symmetrical patterns than asymmetrical ones. And such players look for the Big Road, giving a damn about what certain bac scholars try to say.

Taken from another point of view, the line (random walk) getting many A and singled or no S will take the lead over the other ones, sometimes two or rarely three different lines will present clustered S, a sure sign that that shoe isn't playable.

That's one of the precious tools we're looking for:

Once a S clustered pattern had shown up at two different lines (random walks) so far, that shoe is considered as partially unplayable unless our data suggests that a given specific S cluster is more likely to be interrupted by an A event.

Keypoint is that we do not want to guess interminable winning hands, just restricting at most the unfavourable S patterns as the rule at baccarat is to lose and lose and not to win.


When a shoe is weirdly dealing too many S hands, do not try to alter the flow and let it go without betting (don't make the mistake to chase S patterns and let alone A situations).

Next week we'll see the exact percentages of S/A ratios in relationship of the actual production.

as.

Hi Al, welcome back 

Yes, people tend to bet too many hands hoping that trends/antitrends last forever (or at least until a loss or a couple of losses come out).

Obviously the concept of trends/antitrends doesn't exist at all, it's just a human concept set up to try to guess more hands than expected and normally it doesn't work.

In any instance almost any pattern move around a long term 0 sum (of course B patterns tend to be longer than P patterns), yet it's impossible to catch the infinite sub distributions unless we'll try to "limit" trends/antitrends by a lenght factor.

The process accumulating wins must be very slow, so once we've secured a win or few wins we have to defend it as it's more likely to encounter short W sequences than long W sequences.
Long W successions work as a sort of "jackpot", the same way slot machines act.

I mean that the risk of jeopardazing a temporary profit within too short terms (or costant gaps)  would be higher than the reward of getting more wins by exploiting long W sequences.

Even worse is trying to catch favourable situations within too short terms when we're losing because the process of getting a fair number of W after a steady L status do not work in the majority of the times.

Mathematics teaches us about the value of the Maximum Bold Strategy applied to any EV- game (betting everything just in one hand).

More later

as.

Suppose we want to compare a black jack shoe with a baccarat shoe.

At bj, things are pretty straightforward: when the shoe is rich of aces and 10-value cards we'll get an edge (or at least we're supposed to get it) and vice versa when the shoe is rich of low cards.
Unfortunately here we have to bet any hand dealt and whenever the true count is going toward our side (nearly 12-15% of the times), raising our bet will make suspicious the house.
In addition, we can't know if the actual bj positive count could be distributed by a kind of L-N-H or N-L-H cards distribution (L= low cards, N= a mix of H/L cards, H= high cards relegated into the final (unplayable) portion of the shoe.
Thus we think to play with an edge whereas it's not.

At baccarat bighorn.sh.it happens just in the eye of the beholder.
Since we can choose from an infinite amount of random walks and wagering whenever we wish and with the amount we wish, the strategy cannot be prevented by any kind of "perfect" randomness.

Paradoxically we could cross better EV+ spots by waiting that S clusters of some lenght had happened at the same considered line, especially if the total count of A/S patterns was moderately/heavily shifted toward the right S side.

By selectively playing the A side we are challenging the production to deal multiple consecutive S patterns of different shape happening at specific lines, a thing that can easily come out by throwing an unbiased coin but never ever at a bac proposition unless for rare coincidental factors and for limited ranges.

A or S pattern steps

As we've seen there are two betting steps to ascertain whether a next pattern will be A or S, first step is slightly more likely to produce a win than a loss so in some sense we could consider the second betting step as a "backup" plan.

Registering the first or second bet result at any line considered is an additional tool to be more precise in our selection, thus enlarging our edge after a kind of strong deviation happened at either side of operations.
It's like to halve the negative deviations at the obvious cost of missing many favourable opportunities.

For example, it's extremely unlikely to encounter 1-step or 2-step S different patterns longer than 4 or 5 at each step, yet we should be prepared to face the most unlikelihood.

Think to run the same situation infinite times giving a damn about short term results.
If the production is considered as unguessable, long term results will mirror the expected results but it's not the case. 

Since you're not forced to bet any hand, in order to enlarge your probability of success you can wait for some negative deviations to happen before placing your precious money at either the #1 or #2 step (or both).
       
Do not fall into the trap of wagering something because you're called to unless a minimum bet is at least 10x inferior to your standard betting amount.

More hands you'll bet lesser will be the accuracy of catching the good instead of the bad.

as. 

QuoteHi Asym

Casinos like randomness and randomness dislikes patterns.



that's a great gambling quote.

Thanks, KFB, thanks!

The problem is that IMO more often than not real random productions are likely to STOP patterns instead of prolonging them. Especially at baccarat where the production is finite for the average key cards impact and surely asym based for the rules (B>P).

as.