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Messages - owenslv

#1
Happy Birthday Victor.

Like a fine wine, you are not getting older, just maturing, right ?
#2
Nicely stated Luigi. I sincerely enjoyed your post and respect your approach.
#3
Baccarat Forum / Re: Article on baccarat
June 25, 2018, 11:44:06 PM
Marinetech;

The reason fear sets in when you place a bet over a certain level has to come from previous conditioning and that can be overcome. We all have acquired, through experience, various levels of skill. For example if you were to (hypothetically) go back and examine every session you ever played at baccarat to discover how much, on average you were "ahead" at some point, you would discover an average amount.

Instead of thinking in terms of money, think in terms of chips. So, lets say, for example after examining the results of your last 100 sessions you discover that, on average you always seem to reach a level of 8 chips ahead before losing.

In other words you could state that your personal skill level was around 8 chips session. Now, with that discovery, what if on your next session, you decided that once you reached 5 chips ahead you would leave the table with a profit. And for protection, if you lost 5 chips you would also leave. Conservative, realistic and practical.

And finally, what if you were able to build your resources to the point where your goal was to still make only 5 chips, but now your bets are $10k each.? You know that at the $25 level you would consistently make $125 and now at the $10K level, the procedure is precisely the same, and you have done it repeatedly in the past, which gives the confidence to proceed.

That is what I mean by conditioning yourself for handling the larger bets/wins.

What do  think?
#4
Baccarat Forum / Re: Article on baccarat
June 25, 2018, 02:38:03 AM
Hi Marinetech;

Yes, I have brains and can do the math. The point of my comment was to reinforce the fact that since there are players making $150K bets in Vegas and $500K bets in Macau, skillful players should be able to make substantial amounts cash by betting substantially less and thereby go relatively unnoticed. That is quite an opportunity, wouldn't you agree?
#5
Baccarat Forum / Re: Article on baccarat
June 24, 2018, 03:09:14 AM
Hey 8or9;

I take that statistic of the casinos in Macau earning $30B off baccarat as a positive. Think about it:  If they are making that kind of income, they will keep the game going. Also, it should be relatively easy, to "stay under the radar" and earn $100K at a session without raising too much suspicion. ($100k vs.$30B)

Garry
#6
Baccarat Forum / Re: Article on baccarat
June 23, 2018, 03:21:14 AM
Hi 8OR9;

Thanks for posting. I found the article both interesting and inspiring. It certainly gives  a player some perspective on betting maximums and potential earnings doesn't it ?

#7
Acknowledged !

"Seize the time, Meribor. Live now; make now always the most precious time. Now will never come again" – Captain Jean-Luc Picard, Star Trek: The Next Generation
#8
Hey Giz;

There is a New York Times best-selling book called "How Not To Die" that should be helpful.

"Discover the Foods Scientifically Proven To Prevent and Reverse Disease"
It is written by Michael Greger M.D. founder of nutritionfacts.org

PM me and and leave your email address. I have a copy in PDF format that I would be pleased to send to you.

Get healthier,

Garry
#9
Hi Mike;

"Trends are meaningless in a random game, and can only be identified after the event. "

Of course you are technically correct, but practically in a random game like Baccarat, what else to do we have but past results to make an intelligent, informed guess ?

Mike, I also believe it is totally true that you can not predict with mathematical certainty the next event of a random game. However it is also true that the random game creates a series of outcomes that do arrange themselves in patterns which may be useful in bet selection.

Perfect predictions --NO. Helpful indicators -- PERHAPS.

in reality we only have to increase our bet selection process ever so little to become profitable and if random patterns can be utilized then it makes sense to use them, wouldn't you agree ? 

(Now if we could create a mathematical algorithm..)

#10
Gentlemen;
Fascinating opinions, information and insights to consider from all of you. I find the information you all are sharing quite interesting.

Of course an informed player's results also create a set of individual statistics, which ultimately may well exceed expectations (and isn't that our goal ?)

Garry

#11
Hey Giz;
On a bus shuttle from The Orleans to the Palms, in Las Vegas,  I remember a gentleman, reminding me that when it comes to being successful in casino gambling, "The trend is your friend."

So simple. So profound. And now many years later I have the privilege of hearing you, restate the same principle.

Thanks for the positive, and informative reinforcement.

Garry
#12
Hi BlueAngel;

RE: "Hey Garry, what's up?
Warming up the chair for me?

It would be a pity not to address your inquiry properly, but since you've posted that your selection is doing well for thousands of bets, then why don't you make the start by explaining about your selection criteria?
By doing so others would be encouraged to step forth and fulfill your request, what do you think?"

Please don't misunderstand my intentions here. I did not mean to imply that "my selection is doing well for thousands of bets."
My bet selection process is still in the development stage and I was inspired by this ongoing discussion to compliment the people involved in this thread in providing, what I consider, some very useful information.

As a direct result of the information I have personally learned in this thread, IN THEORY, it seems likely that by using only past performances as a basis of input, that it is indeed possible to achieve a level of play that would allow a person to make bet selections with enough accuracy to achieve profitability, OVER A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME, which is all you need. I have to assume that is where the MM comes in, short-term, realistic goals, make your profit and leave.

I was suggesting that, THEORETICALLY, there must be a creative, perhaps new way of following or notating past results, specifically for Baccarat, that would lead us naturally to a positive bet selection process. I hope this clears things up.

Sincerely,

Garry

#13
Again I must congratulate all of you contributing to this thread for the massively, intelligent, interesting and relevant information that is being introduced. Indeed any money management system cannot overcome an inadequate bet selection protocol.

When you have a betting protocol in place that allows you to win consistently, creating a positive edge, then of course, a structured money management system will allow the player to maximize winnings and minimize losses.

So now the big question, as professionals our main, or perhaps initial focus, should be on bet selection.

How, in an ocean of probabilities, do we gain a positive edge on say, Baccarat when an individual session (80 hands or less) represents a "drop in the ocean of probabilities ?

The only concrete tools we appear to have is past performance, developing trends and the like. Is there a method we could develop as a like-minded group, with various backgrounds and skills that would provide enough shift in betting protocol to give us that positive edge ?

I totally realize that each individual hand is essentially random, and that, "The past does not equal the future." HOWEVER, every session produces variable results and that may be our strength. The player who is able to step back and see the bigger picture of a string of outcomes, look at those outcomes in a new and different creative manner, may be able to instinctively and intelligently predict (guess) at a different and superior level.

If you add up all of the years of experience each one of you have personally, collectively, as a group we likely have centuries of experience, right here in this form. What an amazing privilege !

I sincerely believe that there really is a very subtle difference between losing to the house advantage and shifting the bet protocol to a consistent player advantage and if anyone can figure that out, this is the group that will do it.

Next step ?

Garry



#14
Thanks GIZ. That's good advice on the bankroll. % of bank is a solid method of play because it keeps you in the game. Also, IMO, your bankroll increases in direct proportion to your results.
#15
Thanks Giz, You're first ! I appreciate the prompt (and honest) reply.

So, using Xander's idea of 1% of bankroll and your confirmation of utilizing past results, we're making process.

So before we create the ultimate "BETSELECTION" Baccarat strategy, I think it wise to hear from more players.

What do you say team?

So, how best to use the past results for that 1% initial bet........