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Baccarat Forum / Re: Where is best Barccarat room in Vegas to play
« on: April 14, 2020, 03:10:22 pm »
Very nice article. Thank you

Unless you can back that up, it is just grandstanding, empty words on the internet. I (we) can all play shoes that return hit rates greater than 60, 70, 80%, I made reference to a shoe I played online, won 7 lost 1 (87.5%). Can I achieve that consistently, no chance in hell I can.  I wouldn't even want to, rather, would be more interested and more focused on handling those shoes that only produce a high 40% win rate, because I'm a realist, and don't wish to BS.


I call it Hit Rate but I?m sure strike rate means the same. It?s 65%.
I play less than half of all the hands in a shoe.

General Discussion / Re: Regarding Beatthecasino.
« on: April 16, 2019, 09:28:43 pm »
That is utter codswallop, it's like a sales pitch. Is Keith in need of more BR, one wonders.

I average approx 100 shoes per week. I know darn well statistics count for nothing as a shoe unfolds.  So please bear me the BS.

Yet you contradict yourself in the next paragraph. Baccarat is all about statistics, for any given session it is not. I've also studied this game for well over a decade and then some. Negative progressions do not need to be outrageous, I use them all the time and rarely bet more than 10 units. You are talking to somebody who has done it, 34 consecutive winning sessions, turning $1k into over $40k.

I'm well acquainted with the 87%, something that was done to death on GG over a decade ago, age has nothing to do with the ability to study  game.

I did construct a response having watched over a Doz of BTC youtube videos in the last 24 hours, which I did not post, but shall edit accordingly and post shortly.
Lugi, I don't know why you are ranting to me about BTC. You're barking up the wrong tree. I pretty much agree with everything you said about Keith and his forum. For the last 2 years though, there were a group of successful players including myself, teaching a lot of great things to baccarat enthusiasts. Unfortunately, Keith himself couldn't learn what we were teaching so he chose to take another route with his forum. He took the high negative progressions route, where he advocates starting with 1000 unit bank rolls, to win only ONE unit.  That's when all the successful players walked away, since we frown on high negative progressions.
I don't need to validate what I say to you, but as a courtesy and just so you know, I will. I don't use or endorse any of the systems you mentioned, 40, 40A, NOR, OTBL, TBL and 87%
I have my own way of playing. However, with your response to my post(s), it's evident that you don't believe a word I say or are even interested. In that respect, you are just like Keith, because he couldn't do what we do, therefore he thought it was impossible. Moreover, you are like 99% of the players I meet in the casino, in that have been playing 10s of years, you know it all and that there's is nothing that you could possibly learn from anyone else.
After 30 years of owning a forum, Keith is still playing $5 units. That being said, if you were the successful player that you say you are you would be playing full time, and would not be content with 5K a week over a hundred shoes. I did the math, you make $50 a shoe.
You don't need to respond to this or any of my future posts. My posts are for everyone else who enjoys the experience I have to offer.   

Lugi, 4 to 7 unit stop loss is pretty steep. Why not start with half units until you get to plus 1 or +1.5 before you make your first full unit bet? Set your stop loss at -2.5 to -3. That gives you 5 to 6 chances to get it right.  If you get positive before going below -3, then stay in the shoe, if you don't start winning and you hit your -3, then you probably shouldn't be in THAT shoe anyway.

General Discussion / Re: Regarding Beatthecasino.
« on: April 16, 2019, 03:42:20 pm »
Luigi, you are correct in that in Baccarat, the overall (PA)player advantage over millions of hands is close to 50%. I will give you that. However, with all due respect, that statistic is not valid for the shoe that?s in front of you now. The shoe in front of you is unique. You will not beat it using the historical statistics of the game.
Baccarat is all about ?determining the length of events and their frequency of occurrence, thru use of statistics?. Once you can do that WITHOUT using a progression (meaning by flat betting only) you can become a consistent winner. That takes years to accomplish. Studying thousands of screenshots etc. The dedication required is no less than what an Olympic medalist would have to go thru to win a medal. Only a hand full of people can do it and most people would put what?s required in the ?too hard? basket. Most would rather just play with an outrageous negative progression to compensate for their inferior hit rate (HR), while hoping that their wins outnumber their losses.
I know you probably think I?m full of stuff because you?ve never witnessed or met a consistent player that can do what I just said. That?s ok, I?m not offended.
All I?m saying is that it is doable. The question is how many of you will put in the hard yards to get there? How many even have the time? All the ones I know are over age 60. It seems that?s when they have the time to really study the game.

Baccarat Forum / 2 of the biggest reasons that most players lose
« on: April 15, 2019, 05:26:18 am »
There are many reasons players lose but 2 of the biggest reasons for losing can be eliminated.
#1. Players seem to think that they must play every single hand in the shoe. I hear them all the time saying things like "what should we bet now?"...or "I don't know what to do now". Well for crying out loud, if you're not sure, then why not just wait it out until you see a sequence you recognize? I haven't met anyone yet who has lost money sitting on their behind. There is no need to bet every single hand. I personally bet less than 50 percent of the entire shoe.

#2. Players are always betting against a run. Whether it's a straight line run coming down or a zigzag run. You don't know when a run will end/stop, and therefore you should never bet against it. It's best to wait until it's over and concentrate on your next bet.


First you will need to determine 3 important numbers to do the calculation.
1. Your Total Bank Roll
2. Acceptable Loss Per Shoe (expressed as a percentage of lifetime bank roll) 
3. Your desired Stop loss per shoe (expressed in full units).

For example:
5% loss per shoe will allow you to have 20 losing shoes (100/5),
10% loss per shoe will allow you to have 10 losing shoes (100/10).
2.5% loss per shoe will allow you to have 40 losing shoes (100/2.5)

It is important to note that this calculation ideally, should be performed after every shoe, won and lost.
In the case of a winning shoe, your bank roll will have grown slightly and ultimately you could start playing your next shoe with larger units. Conversely, after a losing shoe, recalculation will dictate how much you will need to reduce your unit size to preserve the risk factor that you originally started with.

Example 1:
Total BR = $10,000
Loss per shoe = 5%
Stop loss per shoe = 4 (full units)

Convert loss per shoe to dollars.  (10000 x 5%) = $500
Now just take Loss per shoe in dollars and divide by Unit Stop Loss

$500/4 units = $125 units

Example 2:
Total BR = $7,000
Loss per shoe =10%
Stop loss per shoe = 7 (full units)

Convert loss per shoe to dollars.  (7000 x 10%) = $700
Now just take Loss per shoe in dollars and divide by Unit Stop Loss

$700/7 units = $100 units

To summarize:
(Total BR x Loss per shoe % ) / Stop loss = Unit Size

General Discussion / Re: Regarding Beatthecasino.
« on: September 22, 2018, 04:51:10 pm »
Glen,for your information, BTC does not sell or endorse systems. It is just a forum where players can chat about baccarat. Novices have access to professional players who enjoy helping new players. Like any business, the owner Keith is entitled to charge a fee for membership. He must be doing something right if 42% of his members are paying members.
There are several professional players there that play for a living.
I think it's time your members stop bashing BTC and call it what it really is, "a great Baccarat forum where you can learn from professional players".

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