Our members are dedicated to PASSION and PURPOSE without drama!

Menu

Show posts

This section allows you to view all posts made by this member. Note that you can only see posts made in areas you currently have access to.

Show posts Menu

Messages - KungFuBac

#1
AsymBacGuy / Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
February 09, 2025, 01:19:48 PM
Hi AsymBacGuy and hope this finds you doing well. Good essay/thoughts up above.

Asym:

"...So it could be useful to approximate at best those 4, 5 or 6 card ranges, in the sense that whenever we'd think that the next hand will be formed by 4 cards the best bet, by far, is the Player bet.

If we'd think that the next hand will be formed by 5 cards, odds are that we'll be way more likely to win by wagering Banker side.

If we'd think that the next hand will be formed by 6 cards, well we better choose to stay put or, at the very least, to make a Player bet with a kind of minimal tie side bet whenever 6-cards consecutive hands are coming out..."



I agree 100%.
I find it easier to guess the first card vs the 5th and or 6th. Though a very arduous task.
Of course, the probability of the 5th and or 6th card is a function of that first card.


In my opinion.
#2
Sports Betting Forum / Re: Super Bowl! Eagles & Chiefs
February 09, 2025, 01:12:57 PM
Good luck with your pick/ hope you cover. I do not have a wager.

I don't watch or follow NFL. However, I think/hope the chiefs win. Its my opinion Fillie played their best game of the year two weeks ago. Chiefs are my pick(-1) mainly due to sentimental reasons.

KC was a little closer than Dallas from where I grew up. So starting in about 7th grade traveled to Kc at least once a year (The old Arrowhead stadium), to watch a game. We never had such extreme temps in the Midwest so the temps at KC were extreme. The seats at Arrowhead felt like frozen concrete(Because they were),lol. Temps and Wind Chill frequently approached -0- . Especially up in the stands.  As a kid it didn't matter. It was a lot of fun.

So GO CHIEFS.
#6
Many are charging $30--50 in recent months. Often if a casino gives free or discounted parking they simply put addendum costs to the room charge,...etc.

https://cdcgaming.com/brief/how-much-do-las-vegas-strip-casinos-charge-for-parking/
#7
AsymBacGuy / Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
February 03, 2025, 03:17:51 PM
HI AsymBacGuy

"...Nonetheless at the end our average edge lines up at around 3.46% after vig.
It's a real big advantage but unfortunately performing huge fluctuations related to the actual shoe card distribution.  ..."


Excellante my friend.
I like this/always good to see when a gamer knows this %. It is my opinion ones' wagering approach should be built up/out from this known value. Though it is my opinion this is seldom a static figure one simply needs to know the Mean/ expected range. If one is an advantage player it is my opinion we can see this fluctuate from approx -1.36% ---  +7.35%.

More later,
#9
Sports Betting Forum / Re: Today’s 2 NFL Wagers
January 26, 2025, 08:26:05 PM
Thx for picks. I like the buff bills to win this one. I do not have a wager(nor researched it).

I am in agreement with eagles pick. Go Eagles as I like phillie QB Jason Hurt in this one(Or as philadelphia mayor Cherrelle Parker would say "Go ELGSES"). As shown here:

https://www.breitbart.com/sports/2025/01/21/watch-philly-mayor-mocked-for-misspelling-eagles-during-chant-before-playoff-game/

Hope everyones' picks cover bigley.
#10
How much would you tip in a similar situation??
Personally I am quite certain I would not tip $50k on a $1.1Mil win.
Thx in advance for your replies.

*I talk with casino personnel on the floor that say they were dealers at one time /switched to the floor(service slots, answer questions, payout jackpots,..etc). There main reason for switching to floor is that Min wage +Tips is significantly greater than what dealers generally make.
What say you???


https://www.casino.org/news/tropicana-atlantic-city-gambler-wins-1-1m-tips-casino-staff-50000/
#12
Hi Asym.

Thx for review of this article and your personal rankings. I like an updated review as I mostly play in the Midwest,USA.My fav LV casino for Bac is probably  Bellagio. Even when I stay at other cas I still play at Bellagio some.

Asym:
"This is my list based upon the baccarat average action (number of players) in Vegas casinos (no downtown casinos are considered here).

Good action

- Gold Coast
- Palms
..."



I like Gold Coast. It has been many years since I played at Palms/ have never stayed at their property.


"...Then there are several additional factors to award a "best baccarat tables in Vegas" prize.
Mostly are related to min/max betting limits, HE, general atmosphere, propensity to deal many free hands or dealing a new shoe before the end of it, then average skills and 'composure' of the other players (generally speaking there are more good local players than good tourist players). Etc.


    Yes on free hands. Unfortunately in the Midwest very few casinos will allow free hands. A few allow <=3 per shoe. I try to wait until at least 2-3 players at table. If Im forced to play alone I utilize a 7-series of wagers(aka Gr8 type tiers up/down) that start a few increments above the table minimum(e.g If $25min then start first tier at $35, If $50min I start first tier at $60). Then when I see something I like I then wager my main Base Unit. The 7-series usually takes care of itself(approaches 0 Net), until other players arrive. Then I stop the gr8 series/just make  my main wager.


"...From a strict HE point of view, the best Vegas baccarat casino ever was (or still is, we don't know) the "D" in downtown where Banker winning bets were burdened by a mere 4% vig.
Besides of a short lived experiment made at Sahara casino in the 80s, where there wasn't no commission at all at B winning bets (lol), by far "D" casino offered the best baccarat tables in the history of this game...."


I would love that 4.0% game at D. I think one could get that down to below 3.1 Net.  :)

"...Besides of a short lived experiment made at Sahara casino in the 80s, where there wasn't no commission at all at B winning bets (lol),...

    They probably still made money near their typical Hold from the majority. Though Im sure a few well-heeled players exploited that situation.



Thanks again for your review/ rankings for the current Bac environment in vegas.


Continued Success,
#13
Good trip report/congrats. I love to hear when fellow bacsters tag the casino for a quick/big W.

Im optimistic you applied a good MM to the W. Therefore, nothing wrong with leaving after an easy victory.



Congrats,
#14
AsymBacGuy / Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
January 19, 2025, 08:36:28 PM
Hi Asym.
My response to your Q is below.

Asym: "...Can you elaborate this passage of yours?

Sometimes(not always) we may win FIRST (due to skill or luck). Then have the option to:Press to our win, regress to our win, set aside that wager for a perceived better entry, press higher,...etc all the while compounding our initial base unit...."

Sometimes(not always) we may win FIRST (due to skill or luck).

    Meaning sometimes we may win first in the cycles of Ws and Ls. Sometimes these Ws streak will happen irrespective of ones skill (or nonskill--luck). It is my belief it is extremely difficult to go very long without a 3IAR(in-a-row) W streak. Especially if one is not wagering for a same-event repeater.

Then have the option to:Press to our win, regress to our win, set aside that wager for a perceived better entry, press higher,

    Meaning when we win first we have several options(Win first is broadly defined but generally means such as: Get ahead greater than ones base unit, get ahead greater than ones currently pressed up pospro wager/ that is greater than ones Mean wager(or base unit) or whatever a person has deemed a reasonable goal for that shoe or session,...etc.
IMO when we get ahead first we have several options not available to the casino. The casino plays like a robot as they can only match our next move. For example if we are doing a posprogression the casino must do a negative progression. Also, vice versa when a negpro player is chasing a losing streak as the casino is matching the negpros' wager with winnings they just received from the losing player. This robotic requirement by the casino is why they like a negpro player. The player is directly challenging a larger bankrolled opponent with less funds(as well as table limits). The casino looks at the negpro player like Mike Tyson did his opponents(i.e., like a tiger circling his cage saying: "bring it on".) :)
All the while the casino is nicking all players with a 1.06--1.24% H.E. regardless if W or L.

So it is my opinion one will do better financially in the long run by utilizing a pospro that not only can compound out a spinoff% Yield (Not to confused with Return) that is greater than the H.E. Yet also produce a higher Return. However, one cannot backoff once that pressed-up wager is growing exponentially.
If a player can typically win >=3IAR wagers on a reasonable number of base unit buyin(Say 20-35 units). Then it is my belief one should utilize a posprog vs Flatbet/Negpro wagering regimes.

*What I often see at the tables are players that will utilize a pospro until they get back to even. Then chicken out once the pressed-up wager starts really picking up steam(i.e., compounding) which is typically on that >= 3rd,4th,5th IAR win. Sometimes they will even regress or just be thankful to be back to even/ bring it all down.
Yet the same players will automatically and without hesitation chase a losing streak from hell with everything/every $ in front of them. All the while digging in their pocket for a couple more Benjamins for one final bet. It is my thesis we will all (me too) see almost the same streaks regardless of ones bet selection prowess(or lack of). Though an experienced and skilled player will put together streaks with just a very slightly greater length.


Just my opinion and I welcome counter thoughts.


Continued Success To All,

#15
AsymBacGuy / Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
January 19, 2025, 06:06:39 AM
Hi Asym--I just responded to your Q but timed out. I may have to retype as I think my response is lost. More later