Thx Asym for your response.

"...What I would think is that, generally speaking, a positive progression will concede to the house those (albeit relatively rare) overalternating WL sequences where any win is not properly balanced by the following loss, meaning that in any case in order to win we need some winning clusters to show up..."

    My advocacy for a posprogression is that we will see the same streaks regardless the amount of our wager(or if we are calling our wager a posprogression, Flat, or negpro).
I think most will agree we often go through a bac shoe with perpetual exchanges of streaks(e.g., WL WWLL LLWW LWLW WWWW LLLL,...ETC). Sometimes(not always) we may win FIRST (due to skill or luck). Then have the option to:Press to our win, regress to our win, set aside that wager for a perceived better entry, press higher,...etc all the while compounding our initial base unit.

As you mention we obviously must get some of our wins in clusters(i.e., winning events in-a-row). Which I think gives us an additional  opportunity vs only the option of winning more bet selections than losing

*I play sessions sometimes where I do not deserve to win(e.g., W=8 and L=11). Yet I may have been fortunate to put 3-4 Wins in-a-row in a posprogression, and still leave the shoe with a net profit.


Continued Success,

Thx ADulay and Albalaha for your responses.

Albalaha above: "..RNG could also be real and random and even a live wheel could be made to cheat...."

I agree.

AD above: "..We never play on ANY of the RNG table games.  Never.

  The few of us who use the online world to play baccarat only use LIVE DEALERS that we can personally verify by testing that we're getting a fair game (as such that it is)...."

    How did you verify u were getting a fair game? Just curious as obviously if they are live dealers you are receiving the same game as we would receive in a B&M cas.


My concern on RNG(i.e., non live-dealer games)  is that "what I read from online players" is that even though the overall results may fall within whatever Standard Deviation one feels is fair. The casino RNG could easily be designed to be reactive and take ones very large wager(s) at the most inopportune time,...etc. Yet still present overall outcomes within statistical expectation.

So Im glad you all are only playing with live dealers.

Fortunately(or unfortunately) I live in an area with well over 100 B&M casinos within a 5min to 180min drive. Fortunately(or unfortunately) my state doesn't allow one to register an *online gambling account. The last couple days I have been snowed in so it would have been convenient to play from home. Maybe it's a good thing as I wouldn't get a lot done around the house if I could also game from home on sat/sun, lol.

*what's crazy about my state not allowing one to register for online gaming: The fact that online Sportsbetting and Horse racing apps are indeed legal.
I don't do either mainly due to not having studied either or much desire for developing expertise in Non-Bac games. Im still trying to conquer Bac. 


Continued Success,

Hi everkerstt. I can see your logic on the convenience.
However, I don't trust online casinos as its my opinion there are too many opportunities for casino to cheat. In other words players are not playing on same RNG. Though I've never played so my opinion may be without merit.

Continued Success,

Hi AsymBacGuy. Thx for another great essay.

re:"...2) The vast majority of players think that a kind of progressive plan will make the job, in reality such "ploy" will increase the casinos' profits as those players are relying upon the mere LW patterns (in any permutation) coming out along the way.
Actually if they would know when things start to change, they should just wait for such spots without consuming money at previous worthless losing situations...."

    My opinion differs on the progression part(Posprogression is the path mi amigo). HOWEVER, the pos progression must be applied against "An increasing improbability", then set aside, then reinserted again later on. In other words, not inserted with the expectation for a single event to continuously repeat in perpetuum. Many players have unrealistic expectations for "same-event streaks". that's my opinion.

"...3) More hands are wagered and less precise will be the winning targets as most of the times anything can happen anytime.  ..."

    I concur 100%.



Continued Success To All.

I agree with the author John Mehappey(Vegas Advantage). He usually does a thorough job with his opinion stories. I like that he will actually travel to the destinations/ do his own observations and collection of intel.

?Any opinions/thoughts?

2024 Vegas Best Advantage Awards – Gambling in Las Vegas

Hi Asym.
I like the way you state that:

"...There are several ways to classify an asymmetrical or symmetrical pattern, just to make things simpler say that every streak followed by a single or every single followed by a streak is a first step asymmetrical pattern.
Whenever a homogeneous pattern happens as a single/single or a streak/streak situation, we'll wait  until a new different pattern will happen. ..."


More on this later,

Thx and good comments.

AsymBacGuy:
"...Maybe you could recall that I've crossed through an ALL 1s-2s shoe, anyway getting 1s-2s strings of 17-20 or more is not that infrequent.
I understand that things so polarized are visible after the fact: it seems that whenever we'd try to bet toward singles or doubles a streak (perhaps just a 3-streak) suddenly come out.."

    I agree /as I played the aforementioned shoe I recalled many of your fine essays on 1,2,3, IAR(In-A-Row) patterns.
The above shoe was unique in that the whole shoe was only 1s/2s(except the column#18) going 6iar. Re: Column 18: I had actually caught the red dot Wins on Row1,2, and wagered it to go 3iar(that's win 3c7 appeared), and I'm thinking "You got to be kidding" ,LOL. "A column finally goes 3iar and I get the push" . I then wagered it to go 4iar(& caught that one), and then held up to see what would present just after that "change".
Often when I see a shoe "Change" I anticipate more change(something different from previous dominance). However, this shoe fell right back into the historical 1s/2s for all remaining columns. Neither side was dominant. Just after the B 6iar column B was ahead by +7 and shoe finished with B +3. Many Ties(typically just after a 2iar) as I believe there were double digit Ties.

*In the above shoe my hit rate was decent as I put together 3 wins in a row a couple times but couldnt seem to get a 4th IAR Win streak. I generally wager about the same % on P or B and Opp or same-side or any other type patterns. One of the reasons Im mostly a Pospro (&seldom) do any Negpro is that keeps me off the negative trends(meaning when Im guessing incorrectly).

Asym: "..Anyway it's good to hear you have won the previous 6 sessions. Not an easy task though  ..."

Yes the previous sessions that day could not have been easier(five of the six were easily won), with only one requiring an extended effort to get a decent win. Typically on most days I will have a session or two that spans across maybe 2-3 shoes. A session ends for me when all my wagers have been decisioned and or I get a sizeable W(or bust that buyin). So when the wins show early in a shoe I may or may not end that shoe as I typically just reset back to that original buyin and base unit and keep playing. I did recoup the -6.2 base unit drawdown within the next two shoes the following day. The -6.2 base unit drawdown isn't a biggie as I don't really get too concerned about drawdowns until I see approx 60% penetration(Only 40% buyin remaining). Then I realize the battle is on/I need to change something on my bet selection.

alrelax comment above:
"..Here is a shoe with all 1s and 2s except for the opening 4iar banker and two more bankers with 3iar each.  Although not rare occurrences, happens quite often. .."
    Yes most shoes have parts (or sections) or maybe a half shoe of one noticeable pattern and then changes. As I've mentioned before I have played only one whole shoe in my life that neither side went 3iar(ppp or bbb), and that shoe only had one OPP: 3iar(pbp)isolated pattern, and it showed  near the very end.


Hope all had a great Christmas/New Years.kfb
*

Im on a 4day 3night bac excursion. I played a unique shoe yesterday. I did not do well as I had won 6 previous sessions that day /then hit this one. I drew down and was still drawn down at the end of it(-6.2 BaseUnits).

UniqueShoe:

It had only 1s and 2s in every column except column 18. Column 18 had six B in a row with the third one being a F7. No one was on it. This shoe would obviously be a marty or any negpro players' dream. It was a dream for me too(nightmare)   for me. Im not sure why I didn't catch on earlier in the shoe(maybe fatigue) or simply player error.


Continued Success,

Thanks and Merry Christmas to all.

Good topic.

"...Second. You have to decide and be very comfortable with what your bank roll will be, as well as what each session's buy-in risk capital will be...."
   
    In my opinion its critical for each player to design their own system by "fitting" it to their advantage % "greater than H.E." , then fit that to betsize-to-buyin-to-bankroll. Then fit that to ones own MMM.


"...Third. You must understand as well as be somewhat comfortable with unavoidable drawdowns. Drawdown of the players buy-in will happen the majority of the times...."

    The dreaded "drawdown" is what causes many to go on tilt. You can see it in the players eyes and can sense they are starting to "chase". Its certainly not enjoyable as I drawdown in many sessions prior to getting the W. We should just accept it as part of the game(same as when we get an "uptick" first).


"...Ref Martingale betting.  It is ultimately unsustainable and carries the highest risk of significant losses.

Ref Flat betting.  It is a very risky and slow way to make anything higher than a few units. .."


    I see the majority of players doing more Negpro vs Flat or Pospro.

I like to remind myself that we will get the same number of wins IAR(in-a-row) regardless of what we call our wager. Meaning, the event one is wagering on does not know if we just increased or decreased from the previous wager size/ does not know if we just won or lost,...etc.

*My advocacy for a pospro is because one can win by A)guessing more correct, and B)guessing fewer correct but putting together 2-4 wins IAR.

    I track many things at the table and one is my hit rate. Most shoes I probably average 8--16 wagers per shoe. Nearly every shoe ends up within 2-3  W/L. For example W8 L6, W6 L8, W9 L8,..etc. Occasionally I may have W10 L5k, which would be a very good hit rate for me. Usually due to getting an uptick just prior to coloring up or ending that session(Meaning I won 4-5 IAR at the end so instead of being at W5 L5, I finished the shoe at say W10 L5.
    *I had a session last week across four+ shoes and approx six hours where I had an approx 38% hit rate(rough session from the word go). I was never ahead until the end. I finally put together several wins IAR and finished +4 or so units. I was saved by the pospro. My hit rate was dismal and would have busted a Negpro of any kind and a Flat approach wouldn't have busted. However, it may have taken several shoes or days to climb back to even.


"...Say I bought it in for $2,400. I wager a $100 base unit with a plan to positive parlay wins three times. 1-2-4, $100 wins 3 times, will net me $700.  Naturally it will take some kind of drawdown to get there most of the time. But not all and maybe I could do it a few consecutive times in a row. ..."

    Very doable. The great part of such a wagering regime is that you may do it(hit your thrice parlay Coup)  on the first (or early) attempts. Then you now have 24 +7 attempts(31).
    *Every time one hits a coup I would use that as a trigger to apply ones MMM for any +gains >2400 initial buyin. It doesn't matter if your only ahead $150 or 550 or whatever. Then reset and keep playing with the initial 2400 buyin risk. If one draws down first (prior to a win) I wouldn't reduce base unit from $100 down to say $80 as a way of extending the buyin( I see this from many players).

Good thread alrelax


More later,kfb















   

Hi AsymBacGuy.

In the above post u say: "...If the results would be decided by the first two initial cards without the intervention of the third card(s), well the game wouldn't exist at all. (Obviously I admit a kind of vig on each winning bet)...."

re: third card.
    Do you try to hypothesize if the next hand will include a third-card draw? Meaning the next hand will potentially have a total of 5 or 6 cards dealt(and then use that"3rd card potential", in your decision making for deciding which side u will wager??)

Thx

Link at the bottom.


Poker and Holdem type gamers are really skilled at this. Even in cash games they know how to lay low and look/act like the locals, move around to other casinos. In other words they know its in their best interest to not make a big entrance(if well known on WSOP circuit) and travel around to different markets vs camping out in one 3-4 casinos market. I play Bac with several BJ,poker-type,Holdem players and some of their "incognito" strategies are really creative(and funny).

IMO many advantage-play camouflage strategies are common sense.
Such as frequently pocketing a few chips(i.e., showing a loss or a lesser win,..etc).

Announcing to everyone for several days when you lose a buyin or have a rough session.

Avoid boasting to casino dealers and or pit mgrs.

don't wear out your welcome by pounding the same casino several days in a row.

Present as a loyal, pleasant, and friendly patron(e.g., don't scold or curse at a dealer mistake after a dealer error,..etc), as it most likely wasn't intentional.
Always optimal to look at the bigger picture.


https://www.888casino.com/blog/advatage-players-not-kicked-out

"...Prepare for the worst, expect failure.  But don't stress and seriously consider your buyin risk capital.  Believe in yourself, not the Shoe to match your desires.  Deploy your knowledge and experience while you "Go for it" and "Do it"..."

I concur.


    I agree/ perceive many experienced players have an advantage (though may not optimally apply that advantage due to weak MM and or lack of discipline). Just my opinion /I could very well be incorrect.


Continued Success,

I agree/wish more casinos had at least one big bac offered. EzBac and multi-player layouts prevailed(i.e., more profits for casinos), less staff needed,...etc.

"...Here is one for the old school bac players that used to play on the original two sided tables, with the 2 bankers seated and the casino person standing up calling the cards, and a floor supervisor on each end of the table.  This was also the type of table where each person actually held the shoe and dealt the cards, kept the shoe as long as the shoe was producing banker winning hands and pass the shoe counterclockwise after the shoe made a winning player hand...."


...

"...Remember this one large player back at Ballys Grand in AC, needed anything but a face or 10 and we would have all won the hand.

You know, back then smoking cigar, Italian biz owner of some type from NYC etc.

Anyways he peeks at the card.  Looks at everyone.  We all know it has to be a face card.  He looks at bankers seated, (don't forget we actually had the shoe not the casino personnel). Looks at the banker seated and throws the card at him, like frisbee style and said, here you take the lesbian (it was a queen of course) and he immediately pulls another card.  Gets a number card and slams it down,  said, see that-we won.  ..."

that's funny. Many may not recall that 25--35 years ago (late 80s--mid 90s)were the golden years or "heyday" for AC. Often referred to then as the "Vegas of the East",...etc.

One of my most memorable visits to Atlantic City was in 1989(Watching a Mike Tyson fight). New casinos and buildings all around, boardwalk, nice beaches (or at least well kept casinos even if not new), low crime as long as you stayed within 2 blocks of the casios and boardwalk,...etc). Beaches were spotless and no riffraff tolerated,..etc. Many hollywood/ professional athletes seen frequently as they chose AC over LVegas or at least for part of their casino destination trips.

Unfortunately for AC after the mid 90s Tunica was then on an untick in the mid to late 90s with their own "new" casinos. Of course now Tunica is suffering from the same fate that AC is now trying to endure(i.e.,High crime out of nearby Memphis, Indian casinos in nearby states, new states allowing casinos,..etc).
However, in my opinion the main difficulties for both gaming destinations(AC and Tunica) in recent years is more due to online gambling and sports betting now proliferating the markets.

Hopefully AC can somehow resurrect the golden years. I havn't been there in many years.


Continued Success,

Hi AsymBacGuy--another excellent post. I agree 100%(Especially the last sentence in bold below).

Asym above in post#1203:

"...The best #1 example not needing any study is the B>P math propensity (which of course doesn't erase/invert nothing), so B bets are better than P bets.
Unfortunately, in reality B bets are "less worse" than P bets and sometimes that's not even true (no commission tables with B being payed half when winning by a 6).

Trying to forecast a more likely B apparition than expected based upon precedent patterns is a worthless effort. Verified one million of times.

The B propensity is mostly based upon the B4 and B5 initial points meeting a P drawing hand and those situations aren't going to come out so frequently. Meaning that the majority of B bets are just a waste of money (even though less money is wasted than at P bets).

Therefore if some patterns are long term more likely than others and capable to erase/invert the HE, they must also incorporate P hands.
  ..."



Continued Success,