Quote from: Ehtelgaeb on July 22, 2016, 07:54:02 PM
Yes, this is what I was asking.  Evidently not.

Adulay please check your PM.

OK, now I see what you're asking.   I was working with the 1-2 loop but have since gone back to flat betting VDW.   Comparing several previous shoes and running them both ways, the outcomes were nearly identical.

AD

Quote from: Ehtelgaeb on July 22, 2016, 01:24:13 PM
Quick question if you don't mind.  Were you playing as you originally indicated with a reset after a win or did you go with -2 stop loss before resetting?

I'm not sure of what the question is but I was simply flat betting each wager.   I was only attempting to see if the play is viable with the waiting from time to time for the appropriate AP to show up to wager on.

AD

I realize that many are stuck on running millions of trial hands but it's hard to beat sitting down at the table once you are comfortable with your bet selection.

Hit the B&M casino tonight and flat bet my way to a very nice +8 net.

Can't complain about that.

This makes three trips to the casino where the VDW play has produced a profit.

Simple yet effective for general baccarat play.

An upload of the shoe should be available tomorrow after some sleep for those who care to take a look.

AD

Quote from: MarkTeruya on July 13, 2016, 09:27:55 PM

It is like, well this has already presented two losses so depending on the stats expectation (i.e frequency of expected losses in a row), stick with it. 

A good plan.

Thanks for the reasoning.

AD

Quote from: Nickmsi on July 12, 2016, 08:17:55 PM
Good question Trbfla . . .

Is there any advantage to betting ONLY when we have 2 of the same AP forming at same time, such as 1-3-5 and 3-4-5 or 2-4-6 and 4-5-6, etc.

I tested it 2 ways:

1.  If there was a completed AP before the "synced" pair occurred, then start a new cycle.

2.  Just play for the "synced" pair every time no matter if a completed AP would have occurred.

The results were about the same.  The graph is attached.

Besides poor results there were very few opportunities to bet.

Be glad to test any other ideas or tweaks you can think of.

Cheers

Nick

Excellent.  Thanks for picking that one up and running it.

Saves ME a bunch of wasted time!!

AD

Quote from: Trbfla on July 12, 2016, 03:29:31 PM
.....also I've noticed that when one side has 2 chances to win like a 135 and 345 or bpbb... Then it almost always wins....anyone see that?

Yes, that's a good position to be in.  Sometimes I think it would almost worth it just waiting for that combo to show up to wager on exclusively!

AD

Quote from: sqzbox on July 10, 2016, 10:47:19 PM
There is also a 1-5-9 possibility.  PPBBPPBPP

Although the 2-5-8 would have already pulled a "win" on that set.

AD

For the 5 or so of us who are working with the "VDW" method of play, I'd like to condense down just what we're working with.

If the shoe starts out PP, then the wager is obvious under the 123AP.  Wager on P.
If it wins, you will have solved the process and can move on.

The next wagering opportunity presents itself with another 123 starting at hand #2.  How convenient!

Now, assuming you did not win that first wager at PPx, you would have PPB going into hand 4.  There is no AP that will fulfill the requirement to wager, so hand #4 is not wagered on.

After hand 4 you find your self with either PPBP or PPBB you have two choices. 

PPBP results in another "no bet" situation (neither 135 or 345 are available) leaving us only the PPBB situation to wager on with the 345AP.

See anything developing here?

With the PPBP set up you should already see that although there is no wager on hand #5, hand #6 WILL be bet and it WILL be a Player wager.  Both the 246 and 456 AP's come into play.

So, after hand #5 we have a PPBPB or a PPBPP the wager will be on P.    Pretty straight forward.

Now, let's change the result to PPBPPB (loss on hand #6).  What's the next wager?  147 is correct.  The other two iterations of "7" don't fit the box. (567 and 357).

This is also as far as you can run with the VDW on this set.  If you lose the 147AP, the 8th and 9th levels both are simultaneous bets which is no good for our purposes.  Back up and restart.

Now obviously, should you win ANY of the wagers, the set is complete and you can restart another group of 9.  Where to restart?  Simply back up and find an appropriate start based on being able to make a wager.   The example would be winning the 123AP means back up to hand #2 and start another 123AP.  Basically just stay on the side that just won if playing the 123, 234, 345, set.

The same goes for any wins on the 135, 246 and 357 sets.

The bottom line?  (For those of you who have read this far) reads like this:

2's go to 3+.   Z-runs of 3 continue on.

That's it!!

Yes, all of the writing and mathematics of the VDW Theorem show that in a wagering situation.

If you lose on a 12(3), you wait two hands to wager on the 246 or the 345 if it went the other way.   In any case, it's still a "2 goes to 3" situation.  If it loses, you're right back to the 1-2-x restart!

If the 2-4-6 wins, it drops right into a 3-5-7 and so on.

You do not wager when both sides can win, you back up and restart.

So, one more time:

#1   All 2's go to 3.  (and beyond)
#2   All ZZ runs of 3 (or 4 using the Ellis count) continue on.
#3   On any loss, move to the next AP if available otherwise back up to a suitable restarting point.

Put pencil to paper and you'll see this for yourself.   

I didn't invent this or even recommend it.  I'm just showing what the VDW system play works out to in real life.   Please continue to test and report any results that you determine would help.

AD

Quote from: Nickmsi on July 07, 2016, 02:04:27 AM
Yes, Adulay .. .

The Stop Losses were based on each cycle or set of 9 spins.

They were for my VDW Roulette but I suspect similar results can be attained for baccarat.

Cheers

Nick

Nickmsi,

  Interesting angle.  I'll go back and look at the previous sheets and see how they change.

  AD

Quote from: Nickmsi on July 06, 2016, 01:33:47 AM

Stop Loss = -1      Stop Loss = -2      Stop Loss = -3      Stop Loss = -4
Won 15/20 Sessions   Won 17/20 Sessions   Won 14/20 Sessions   Won 15/20 Sessions
Profit = 427 Units   Profit = 428 Units   Profit = 280 Units   Profit = 328 Units

Nickmsi,

  This "stop loss" you're testing is for each set of 9, correct?   Lose two wagers and reset for a new set?

  AD

Quote from: whopper1967 on July 03, 2016, 04:19:16 AM
Hi all, I have been playing around with VDW on baccarat for a few days and a question arose. I know that there are times when there is the possibility of both a player and banker based AP being completed on the same step which makes for a no bet situation due to ambiguity....My question is about the times when a single side bet will actually complete two AP's at the same time, for example when a bet on banker may complete a 1-3-5 and a 3-4-5 for at the same time. Would this still be considered a bet since it actually completes two different progressions with the same bet? I have been playing to where it does but wanted to see what others thought about it....thanks all.

Whopper,

  That's the way I've been playing it.   Either AP that completes the requirement will do.

  Also, when I run into a wagering situation where both sides result in a tie wager (towards the end) I just revert back to the closest "BB" or "PP" and restart from there. 

  AD

Quote from: bbbbbb128 on June 16, 2016, 03:05:47 PM
Hi Nick

what sort of money management will you advise for such stable EC bets?
the W can come in between L or LL

i am thinking using 1-1-1-2-2-4-4-8-8
2 W in a row will result in +1 unit
what do you think?

Chasing for a "double" would be akin to running a Martingale on this particular play.

I've reviewed my last 15 shoes played under VDW/AD and one shoe actually went 15 or so before a "double" hit.  Lots of singles in there, but no double win.  There we also many runs where you would be making that eight level wager albeit winning it, but it's still on the steep side of the wagering curve.

Also for those who may be machine testing this, you may want to run it manually for a few days to "see" what combinations look good.  The "one sided" 147AP is a particularly good wager. 

This VDW, in any variation NEEDS some runs of 3 or more although the runs of singles (ZZ runs) also work well.

If you get to the 9th level, there is no sense in making a wager as either side clears the solution for a win so that would be pointless.  The same goes for a losing 258AP.  Just start over at that point.

This has been working out in live play quite nicely.  I believe part of the success is that it does not wager on every hand but tends to seek out selective patterns to play.  Obviously any 123 type bet jumps out at you but when those lose, then you get to pick at the remaining AP's for one that will fit the expected outcome.   Surprisingly I've found that the single sided 147AP is the MOST productive to date.

Anyway, these are just some things to look for if you've decided to put any time in serious work with this play.

AD

I apologize if this question has been asked previously.

Are these "decisions" only bets placed or are they from a continuous game, meaning you are playing every hand or spin?

AD

Quote from: Babu on June 17, 2016, 10:58:31 PM
What is the requirement for withdraw?  Minimum amount = ?  How many withdraw per month=?  Fees =?  Is it by check or to your bank account?  How long does it take?  I did not see anything about withdraw on the website.

The video delay is worse than 5dimes but of course I usually play at night.

http://www.betphoenix.ag/banking

The last check I got was delivered by FedEx and drawn on a Canadian bank.

That video comes and goes.  One night it's perfect.  The next night, same time, and you can barely recognize the game!

AD

As the above mentioned online casino is currently in discussion in another thread, I would like to ask if anyone here is actually playing there lately.

I have been researching their site and rules but haven't seen any mention of our forum members who play there here on the board.  (with one exception).

So, if anyone has any FIRST HAND information to relay, this would be a good thread for that data.

It doesn't matter if you're a $1 player or a $100 player, just real time, first hand information would be nice.

One just never knows when they might need a back up online casino.

AD (this editor is driving me nuts)