Quote from: sean on May 04, 2021, 01:22:42 PM
Can you share with us how to design a good MM? The thinking processes behind your design, so that it can start us thinking as well.

I provided enough hints in this regard. How about a labouchere configured to win in 45% win rate instead of 35%? How about a tweaked Oscar's Grind/Pluscoup MM? You just need to control the acceleration in a manner that even the worst probability could be accommodated easily.
            I know, innovation is not so easy. I have spent thousands of hours in trying to get something that could be perfectly balanced.

It is pretty painful to never see any debate over how an MM for long run could be created. We all know that variance could be horrible only temporarily. If we see 20 trials, getting minimum 9 wins persistently is a trouble, while in 200 trials minimum 90 wins are more likely, if we take 2000 trials, getting minimum 900 wins are almost certain. If we see 20,000 trials, anything below 9300 wins is almost impossible.
          Why can't we do something to get a good net income that is assured after even 20k trials? Isn't it better than losing always, at last?
Isn't casino also striving for only 1% profit of all our bets placed?
          Anybody who has seen, experienced, read or tried anything that can work in long run? Let me know.

How about this trigger?

This is again one possible trigger to start attacking casino with over 90% chance to get optimum number of minimum wins per attack. Chance of getting 30/80 is more than 95%. If you get to see a single win after 10 or more successive losses or if 2 to 5 wins are mixed with 12 to 15 losses at any point of time, this could be a great alert and we can use any WLW or WW after this alert as a valid trigger to attack further 55-65 trials targeting at least 25 wins.
      Again words of caution: Do not make it a fallacy. This will work with a dynamic MM that can win in 40% hit rates and also maintains the ratio of probable max wins and probable max losses almost equal. Remember, the 5% losing sessions should not take away wins of 95% sessions.

Quote from: PatternAnalys on May 04, 2021, 12:47:36 AM
Sir,
Wow!
I think this trigger with 90/10 ,should be exploit to hilt!
$hould think out, (naively? ), a mm that win100, lose100, this shoud be our hg!

It requires patience and access to multiple tables to get a valid trigger. Even with a 90% certainty to get 8/20, one needs to have a very reasoned MM to maximize wins and minimize losses( in case you do not get the desired number of wins). How will you play a session with 8/20 minimum assured wins?

SESSION #9: AN IMAGINARY SESSION WITH EXTREME HARSHNESS WAS CREATED:
                    FIRST 100 TRIALS HAD MERELY 25 WINS. SECOND 100 TRIALS HAD 47/100 WINS.
                     72 WINS VS 128 LOSSES
                     NET AT LAST=28 UNITS, MAX BET= 12 UNITS, WORST DD= -102

           
SEE GRAPH OF NET BALANCE:
[attachimg=1]

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Quote from: AsymBacGuy on May 03, 2021, 07:11:13 AM
Then if you are able to finish ahead after those bad sessions, sincere congratulations.
You really discovered the HG. No jokes.

as.

Not just finish in plus but with a reasonable bankroll and bet size that can practically be used in a real casino. Greater thing is, exactly same methodology can be used to play average sessions too. This is outcome of my persistent efforts over two decades. I do not daydream of any magical remedy, I strived very hard to get that. I m still fine tuning it to make it even better.
           I do understand that still I can't win each and every session as probabilities are near infinite but I m definitely having an edge over any random player and casinos. If I stand to win even 0.5% of all my placed bets averagely, it is enough.

QuoteThus I'd let it go every other sequence not belonging to any WW, WLW, WLLW pattern.
After all, those are the main patterns to hope to get a flat betting advantage (besides a first W).

Extreme variance management and focusing on the first few bets of any cycle of an EC bet( a cycle ends with a W) is something I have been emphasizing upon in my writings for not less than 10 years. https://www.tapatalk.com/groups/albalaha/how-to-fight-with-the-worst-enemy-of-gambling-vari-t4332355.html . Hope to get a flat bet advantage by this is still fallacious. When we pause our bets after a WLLL, we still miss 50% of our wins that makes a WLLLW. So, we can't cheat on randomness with all these. Expecting a flat bet win, in the long run with all these gimmicks, is not prudent. This can easily be proved with simulations. No room for any wild guesses.

AsymBacGuy,
                        "We will bet only this or only after this", such things do not work in real life. Whichever way you might pick your bet, you may still get very bad patches ahead. Shying away from them or consoling or rather fooling ourselves that we can somehow avoid very long/bad patches of losses will not be correct, atleast for us having skills to test and have huge experience of playing.
                I myself talked of triggers in one of my recent topic but I always insisted that do not take them as one will take with fallacious thinking. No amount of past variance guarantees better than average outcomes ahead. Always keep this in mind.
                One money management meant to win the outcomes of long run, sustaining the worst possible meanwhile and also good enough to win good and slightly poor than average sessions is only way to beat the casino ultimately or rather say can extract net profit/regular income.
                 It is pretty doable but unfortunately I see almost no effort towards this direction. Everybody is striving to get an edge in betselection itself which is not doable in a purely random game which is not a game of skill but only of chance.

SESSION # 8:
                  16 WINS vs 32 losses. something unbeatable even with labouchere, Max bet=5, Max DD= -22, net win=1 unit.

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SESSION# 7:

         Simple bad session 41 Wins vs 59 Losses. Max DD: -28, Max unit used: 9, Net win: +24 units. No clumping wins.

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Now, let's have a look at an average session.
        Session#6: 42 wins vs 58 losses, max bet=7, max DD= -21, Net win= 39 units.


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Session5:
           62 losses vs 38 wins. First 30 hands have only 4 wins. Max bet=7 units, Max DD=-39, won +2 net profit at 100th hand.

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SESSION#4:
                    WINS:65 VS LOSSES: 108, WORST BR= -75, NET WIN=52 UNITS
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QuoteHi. What's your win in units for this stretch?
Session#2

I did not note that but I believe I got into net profit at the last win.

Quote from: PatternAnalys on April 30, 2021, 04:57:23 PM
Dear Albalaha,
I greatly admire your deep knowledge,
(practically and theory)...and learned a lot from your writing.

May I ask you a very important question.

Question:In all your lifetime experience, and millions of real casino's data analysing,

in 100spins, or hands,

what the worst extreme EC hit( in real casino data)?
I think it never less than 30hit/100.
Your answer, very important to me, since I try to create a method and strategy to mm and progression.
Thanks in advance.

Wong,
         I have observed millions of data, be it baccarat or roulette. I m gradually getting inclined towards baccarat more than roulette due to speed, fun and lesser house edge. It is rare to find below 30/100 but I believe it could go upto 25/100 as well. I m not afraid even if I get 15/100 or even worse. If we analyze billions of data, we might get to see something like that. Nothing bad or good is absolute. Never forget that. What you haven't seen yet, you might face today.
        It is very wrong idea to try to beat 30/100 type cases. I only try to sustain such cases and win gradually. That too with bearable loss.