It appears to be finalized.
             I will play with alert, trigger and pause-resume and a stop loss (collectively, I call them extreme variance management).

An alert of my choice would be any of them:
30 consecutive trials with 9 or lesser wins; or
8 or more consecutive losses before a W hits; or
10 or more losses, in the last two wins like LLLLLLWLLLLW
These will be a 2 SD (below mean) case

Any WLW or WW after an alert will "trigger" or start my attack

Pause-resume will be my secret recipe. I have a very basic strategy to use it where it is not practically possible to pause your betting in a real casino. I will still use its efficacy.
My money mgt is my innovation whose potential has been shown in this topic:
https://betselection.cc/index.php?topic=11314.0

Plus, I will keep a target of +50 and stop loss of -100

I believe that due to sequential probability, I have got at least 90% chances to win a session and combining all these forces would make it 95%. However, certain sessions might not yield 50 units. Afterall, I have very wild randomness to fight with.

Only downside of this strategy is to wait for a valid alert but even if I have access to 4-5 tables with marquee, it is easy to get 3-5 alerts in 5-8 hours in a real casino, in baccarat. I have got access to 50+ tables of live baccarat online 24x7x365 so easy for me to get even more everyday.

I TRIED ONE SUCH TRIGGER AND GOT 30 WINS VS 35 LOSSES IN THE SESSION AFTER TRIGGER. IT FINISHED WITH +15 UNITS. Max bet=5 units and the Worst DD=-19.
        Here is the Session:
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AsymBacGuy,
                       I have no experience of craps and bets, probabilities and payouts associated with it. I worked on an MM for long run since long as short run is full of uncertainties. Merely wishing a good session or fooling ourselves with, "I won't get this many losses, I will rather play inverse" etc are meant for newbies. In reality, it is negative variance that kills a session otherwise even basic players would come up smiling from a casino using basic silly progressions. Indeed, the same silly progressions kick him out of casino faster, empty handed.
             Expecting flat bet wins in the long run is the silliest of all. Although it harms you the least, so the best choice for those frustrated minds who are addicted to gambling and understand that loss is the fate.
             Understanding flaws of any MM and its capability to withstand hugest variance alongwith additional capacity of winning in lesser wins than losses, in a pre determined manner, without seeking compensatory or clumping wins is the HG.
             Ironically and unfortunately, In my two decades of reading hundreds of books and sites, dozens of forums with thousands of topics, I barely could find 3-4 ideas trying for an MM for long run. Self proclaimed Advantage players insist that their way is the only way. They get advantage in their betselection, get more wins than losses and thus win for sure.
           I am working on the side that was presumed to be impossible. Getting a definitive edge with Money management and Extreme Variance Management techniques. I think I am pretty successful. I saw no session so far that can beat me down, including the worst recorded ones. I always win in the long run with my latest way. Still testing and tweaking to make it better, if possible.
                 Any person who has understanding of the logic behind making an MM and goals as I mentioned ut supra , can create a long runner winner. There are hundreds of way, it could be achieved.

Quote from: sean on May 04, 2021, 01:22:42 PM
Can you share with us how to design a good MM? The thinking processes behind your design, so that it can start us thinking as well.

I provided enough hints in this regard. How about a labouchere configured to win in 45% win rate instead of 35%? How about a tweaked Oscar's Grind/Pluscoup MM? You just need to control the acceleration in a manner that even the worst probability could be accommodated easily.
            I know, innovation is not so easy. I have spent thousands of hours in trying to get something that could be perfectly balanced.

It is pretty painful to never see any debate over how an MM for long run could be created. We all know that variance could be horrible only temporarily. If we see 20 trials, getting minimum 9 wins persistently is a trouble, while in 200 trials minimum 90 wins are more likely, if we take 2000 trials, getting minimum 900 wins are almost certain. If we see 20,000 trials, anything below 9300 wins is almost impossible.
          Why can't we do something to get a good net income that is assured after even 20k trials? Isn't it better than losing always, at last?
Isn't casino also striving for only 1% profit of all our bets placed?
          Anybody who has seen, experienced, read or tried anything that can work in long run? Let me know.

How about this trigger?

This is again one possible trigger to start attacking casino with over 90% chance to get optimum number of minimum wins per attack. Chance of getting 30/80 is more than 95%. If you get to see a single win after 10 or more successive losses or if 2 to 5 wins are mixed with 12 to 15 losses at any point of time, this could be a great alert and we can use any WLW or WW after this alert as a valid trigger to attack further 55-65 trials targeting at least 25 wins.
      Again words of caution: Do not make it a fallacy. This will work with a dynamic MM that can win in 40% hit rates and also maintains the ratio of probable max wins and probable max losses almost equal. Remember, the 5% losing sessions should not take away wins of 95% sessions.

Quote from: PatternAnalys on May 04, 2021, 12:47:36 AM
Sir,
Wow!
I think this trigger with 90/10 ,should be exploit to hilt!
$hould think out, (naively? ), a mm that win100, lose100, this shoud be our hg!

It requires patience and access to multiple tables to get a valid trigger. Even with a 90% certainty to get 8/20, one needs to have a very reasoned MM to maximize wins and minimize losses( in case you do not get the desired number of wins). How will you play a session with 8/20 minimum assured wins?

SESSION #9: AN IMAGINARY SESSION WITH EXTREME HARSHNESS WAS CREATED:
                    FIRST 100 TRIALS HAD MERELY 25 WINS. SECOND 100 TRIALS HAD 47/100 WINS.
                     72 WINS VS 128 LOSSES
                     NET AT LAST=28 UNITS, MAX BET= 12 UNITS, WORST DD= -102

           
SEE GRAPH OF NET BALANCE:
[attachimg=1]

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Quote from: AsymBacGuy on May 03, 2021, 07:11:13 AM
Then if you are able to finish ahead after those bad sessions, sincere congratulations.
You really discovered the HG. No jokes.

as.

Not just finish in plus but with a reasonable bankroll and bet size that can practically be used in a real casino. Greater thing is, exactly same methodology can be used to play average sessions too. This is outcome of my persistent efforts over two decades. I do not daydream of any magical remedy, I strived very hard to get that. I m still fine tuning it to make it even better.
           I do understand that still I can't win each and every session as probabilities are near infinite but I m definitely having an edge over any random player and casinos. If I stand to win even 0.5% of all my placed bets averagely, it is enough.

QuoteThus I'd let it go every other sequence not belonging to any WW, WLW, WLLW pattern.
After all, those are the main patterns to hope to get a flat betting advantage (besides a first W).

Extreme variance management and focusing on the first few bets of any cycle of an EC bet( a cycle ends with a W) is something I have been emphasizing upon in my writings for not less than 10 years. https://www.tapatalk.com/groups/albalaha/how-to-fight-with-the-worst-enemy-of-gambling-vari-t4332355.html . Hope to get a flat bet advantage by this is still fallacious. When we pause our bets after a WLLL, we still miss 50% of our wins that makes a WLLLW. So, we can't cheat on randomness with all these. Expecting a flat bet win, in the long run with all these gimmicks, is not prudent. This can easily be proved with simulations. No room for any wild guesses.

AsymBacGuy,
                        "We will bet only this or only after this", such things do not work in real life. Whichever way you might pick your bet, you may still get very bad patches ahead. Shying away from them or consoling or rather fooling ourselves that we can somehow avoid very long/bad patches of losses will not be correct, atleast for us having skills to test and have huge experience of playing.
                I myself talked of triggers in one of my recent topic but I always insisted that do not take them as one will take with fallacious thinking. No amount of past variance guarantees better than average outcomes ahead. Always keep this in mind.
                One money management meant to win the outcomes of long run, sustaining the worst possible meanwhile and also good enough to win good and slightly poor than average sessions is only way to beat the casino ultimately or rather say can extract net profit/regular income.
                 It is pretty doable but unfortunately I see almost no effort towards this direction. Everybody is striving to get an edge in betselection itself which is not doable in a purely random game which is not a game of skill but only of chance.

SESSION # 8:
                  16 WINS vs 32 losses. something unbeatable even with labouchere, Max bet=5, Max DD= -22, net win=1 unit.

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SESSION# 7:

         Simple bad session 41 Wins vs 59 Losses. Max DD: -28, Max unit used: 9, Net win: +24 units. No clumping wins.

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Now, let's have a look at an average session.
        Session#6: 42 wins vs 58 losses, max bet=7, max DD= -21, Net win= 39 units.


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Session5:
           62 losses vs 38 wins. First 30 hands have only 4 wins. Max bet=7 units, Max DD=-39, won +2 net profit at 100th hand.

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