Quote from: PatternAnalys on April 30, 2021, 04:57:23 PM
Dear Albalaha,
I greatly admire your deep knowledge,
(practically and theory)...and learned a lot from your writing.

May I ask you a very important question.

Question:In all your lifetime experience, and millions of real casino's data analysing,

in 100spins, or hands,

what the worst extreme EC hit( in real casino data)?
I think it never less than 30hit/100.
Your answer, very important to me, since I try to create a method and strategy to mm and progression.
Thanks in advance.

Wong,
         I have observed millions of data, be it baccarat or roulette. I m gradually getting inclined towards baccarat more than roulette due to speed, fun and lesser house edge. It is rare to find below 30/100 but I believe it could go upto 25/100 as well. I m not afraid even if I get 15/100 or even worse. If we analyze billions of data, we might get to see something like that. Nothing bad or good is absolute. Never forget that. What you haven't seen yet, you might face today.
        It is very wrong idea to try to beat 30/100 type cases. I only try to sustain such cases and win gradually. That too with bearable loss.

Session #3: 40 wins vs 66 losses, max bet used=9 units

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SESSION#2: SUPERHARSH. FIRST 100 DECISIONS HAS ONLY 29 WINS AND OVERALL 133 LOSSES VS 79 WINS
I USED MAX BET 12 TO BEAT IT.
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I have got a basic tracker of my recent MM that wins good and average sessions easily and with same methodology, I can sustain very worst cases too, playing all over with a fixed EC bet. This tracker of mine is coded in VB hence need to input the string of L(losses) and W(wins) manually, one by one. Please have a look at these sessions and let me know if you can handle such massive variance against you with any MM of yours? Over smart guys who will come up with I will play it Opposite or anything alike, need not comment. Whichever way they can pick bet could get such losses. Only thing one can do is to stop at a particular loss. If any of you can let us know any MM approach that can beat all these sessions within 500 chips bankroll, I would consider that person to be a legend.

Session #1:          losses: 140, wins: 96, SD: over 2.5 SD below mean overall
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Fellow members,
               I have done a hell lot of experiments on various styles of playing. Be it betselection (specially on inside bets of roulette) or money management or extreme variance management techniques. Studied whatever I could find online for over one and half decades. Got help of mathematicians and programmers.
          Recently, I was working on a trigger based approach but I finally got the gist of being successful in gambling. It is only about thinking about the long run. Once you are prepared for that with all possible good, bad, great, worst, average patches coming randomly, you are unbeatable. Playing to conclude a small session is doable too but not necessary. Even if we get half of the edge that casinos has, we are done with being profitable.
            I believe I have accomplished something like that but only time (and my future regular earnings) will tell how correct I was in this conclusion.
       I wish all of you the same.

QuoteDo you then calculate the confidence level again and retry in the very immediate next 20 decisions (i.e., Decisions 41-60)? Or do you address it with another tier of money management or wager size??  Start over?  Other?

Every successive trigger will have better chances due to sequential probability.

Quote from: AsymBacGuy on April 26, 2021, 10:40:31 PM
I like this statement.

as.

Winners don't do different things, they do things differently.

The very basis of my such alert and trigger based betting is "sequential probability" and eliminating sessions from hell. I add more to it like extreme variance management and overall my unbeatable money management to make it more potent. We will still lose at times but losses will never be huge and recovery with 90% winning sessions will be a cheesecake.
              I understand that people take my statements in isolation and it could mislead them as well. Understand that no way of picking bet or opting any betselection is not sufficient by itself. There are many more sides to it. Money management is most essential.

QuoteP wins only <=6 of 20, then you see PP or PBP, and the trigger is triggered, so you are confident (@ 90%) that expectation is that P will win >=8 of immediate next 20 decisions.

KFB,
       Have you read it properly you would have comprehended that it has 90% certainty, not 100%. So in case it is less than 8/20 after we bet, it is within the 10% probability spectrum.

In such cases, I would bet again with same trigger as explained and my probability of getting at least 8/20 will be 95% or even higher this time.

Quote from: KungFuBac on April 21, 2021, 07:30:10 PM
Hi Albalaha/thx for post /comments above. I can tell you have been working diligently on this latest project.

Q: So to clarify u are suggesting as an example: P wins only <=6 of 20, then you see PP or PBP, and the trigger is triggered, so you are confident (@ 90%) that expectation is that P will win >=8 of immediate next 20 decisions. ??

Thx in advance,

Probability of getting at least 8 wins in 20 trials is over 85% by itself. When I use my alert( P wins only <=6 of 20) and trigger along, it is at least 90% due to the sequential probability of 40 or more trials. So in 90% cases we will either get 8 or more wins in 20 trials. I have simulated 114k zumma baccarat data(without ties) to arrive at this too.

I would again clarify, doing this does not create any advantage by itself and in the absence of a clever money management, it will lose in the long run as anything else. Those who believe that even -10SD is possible should not read my topic.

I have analyzed different types of triggers and found one to be the most playable:
                     A situation where an EC(preferably Player) hits 6 times in 20 consecutive trials or even worse in 20 consecutive trials. I will then wait for either a WW or WLW as trigger to start my session. I believe, this way I can ward off the worst in my game and after this trigger, I would expect at least 8 hits in further 20 consecutive trials with at least 90% certainty. With a good hybrid progression, it should be a cheesecake mostly.
       I know even events with less than 1% probability kicks in a random game very easily but this does not hold good in the long run. I would play for +50/-100. I am also looking to play this for +1 as a cumulative long run and know it to be very very stable with my own MM. I can even input my Extreme Variance management in this. I think this week will be the most eventful for me in concluding my work.

Yeah, I had/have my favorite online casinos. I m aware of rogue casinos as well.
       Even if a casino is next door to me, I would consider online one for the sake of professional play and secrecy. No doubts that playing in a casino has lots of fun and comps, yet if you win regularly, it is always problematic, to the best of my experience. I do not have access to land based casino these days due to COVID but nothing stops me playing online, at my pace, with my trackers.

Quote from: KungFuBac on April 19, 2021, 06:01:05 AM
Hi Albalaha Thx for updates.

What type of bet spread do you anticipate needing(as a minimum?) for this latest system?

How many shoes do you consider a session?

thx,
kfb

Bet Spread : 1-25 units. Mostly under 15 units bet max. I m configuring that. Target 50 to 100 units.

Session: It has nothing to do with a shoe. I take results independent of shoes. I think I need to play about 20 hands, at a stretch.

I have very long experience of playing online. Over 15 years. I tried my hands on over 200 online casinos. Deposit or withdrawal issues could be there but mostly country specific. We all know very well which casinos pay swiftly and what kind of hassles they may pose. I prefer them for the sake of convenience. I can play 24x7x365 at my pace, my method, my tracker. No one to lurk or be jealous. No driving or flying for hours. No one to question me.

Mostly playing online, I have got access to over a dozen tables of live baccarat, 24x7, 365 days. Not so tough to get 1.5SD once or twice.