Quote from: hgwen on April 29, 2020, 11:32:11 AM
Hello Albalaha, I'm new in this forum but I read carefully your very interesting topic.
I have a 1000 spins session for you (roulette game randomly generated with excel). Could you try this one ? I attach the file.

It wins swiftly. Tell me the spin number from where you think if we start betting, can not win?

Quote from: Lungyeh on April 29, 2020, 04:59:16 AM
I am respectfully amazed with the passion shown by the contributors here under this topic. As time went by, I just want to respectfully clarify if the participants do play in a real live game be it online or B&M or are these all on paper so to speak?

I just need clarification becos in my many years of gaming, I think the single most important thing that determines a winner is emotions. It?s tremendous difficult to control oneself when you are losing 5-6 bets in a row. Whatever strategy must take that into account in real life situations. These days, I try (let me emphasise that, TRY) to walk away and refrain from further bets if I lose 3 out of my last 4 bets. No exceptions. No negative Martingales.

To draw an analogy. During this pandemic crisis, if one is in the airline industry or the hotel industry with the new normal and business is down, do you push on with expansion plans anticipating business will resume sooner or later (a win will come sooner or later)? Or do you hunker down n wait it out?

I do play regularly online. Land based casinos are far away and can not be done on day to day basis and requires a "planned casino tour". I used to have accounts with more than 200 online casinos which have shrunk to 5-6 these days as many have removed accounts from my country including my favorites like ladbrokes, paddypower etc. Regarding emotional elements of playing game in tough times, I would say it all depends upon your performance. Most people lack any idea of how to win in the long run so being scared is obvious. It took me over a decade to finalize an unbeatable looking methodology or money management specially meant for EC bets. I had better than average ideas to play and win years ago but they were not conclusive. If you know that you are destined to win if you follow a fixed set of rules, why will you distract?

Quote from: sean on April 29, 2020, 02:51:32 AM
What's the maximum drawdown for the session above?

-98

#4: Although I believe it is impossible to get a session like that but upon the insistence of agralim, I test this session and won with 12 units max bet too. Insane 155 losses and 76 wins: -4.78 SD overall and -7.31 SD in the first 100 trials.
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Quote from: argalim147 on April 28, 2020, 05:43:28 PM
There are endless possible bad session combinations. Do you want to test it all? Then you need 100 years and more. For sure, one of the baddest combinations will be this...can you beat it?  LLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLWLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLWLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLWLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLW LLLLLLLLLLLLWLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLWLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLW .....its 100 percent that in all infinity combinations will be this...and you can't it beat.

Randomness has its limitations like 26/100 etc. I already worked such sessions when I encountered 60/200. All of them win finally but not when they are at their worst but gradually. You should read the law of large numbers that says that although a very short session could deliver crazy variance, in long run it gets close to the mean. I have played with much more data than one may imagine. Try to find a real session with the worst of the data possible persisting the longest. I would love to do that.

#4: This 1.5 sd case was beaten with 5 units max bet: 20 Wins vs 33 Losses
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#3         ANOTHER BRUTAL SESSION: 219 LOSSES VS 154 WINS BEATEN WITH MAX BET=12 UNITS

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Quote from: sean on April 27, 2020, 03:23:38 PM
How many trials for an average session?

This question is vague. There is nothing like an average session. We can earn and keep earning till it goes extreme South and we went defensive and try to gain back losses. If say there is a session of 100 trials and we win 48 times and lose 52 times, we should win a nice sum. May be around 20 units easily but it may vary from one session to other.

QuoteExcellent job.

Now consider that in no fkng way some strategies won't reach dispersion values higher than 1.5 SD.
What's your higher bet amount here, knowing that standard unit is $1000?

Thanks

as.

1.5 SD in 30 trials is like: 10 wins in 30 trials while in 100 trials 40/100 could be 1.5 SD. In such cases, bets should hardly go to 8 units max. Give me any such session and I will let you know the max bet/drawdown etc. The core idea is winning in a little below average times, a little more than the house edge. We do not even try to win the extreme bad ones. My MM has inbuilt safeguards to sustain the worst and win thereafter in a near average case.

Quote from: argalim147 on April 27, 2020, 05:42:04 AM
Its big enough to have a chance not to recover at all.

Hmm. Too big to have!!!!!
If you want to try a game with billions of probabilities and do not have 300 or 600 chips to tackle that, you better stop playing. Even people who do advantage play(cloaking ball and wheel, bias analysis etc) keep this much chips of the highest allowed denomination.
Actually casinos are earning because of thinking like that. Ignorance of players is the biggest edge of casinos.

In my latest MM,
         the max bet that i have seen has been 24 units.
Maximum drawdown below 300
Average win in an average session should be 20-40 units.

#2            153 LOSSES VS 106 WINS

SOMEHOW LIKE WHAT AGRALIM WANTED: BEATEN AT THE LAST WIN. OVERALL -2.4 SD. -5.46 SD IN THE FIRST 50 TRIALS WITH 5/60 WINS. KIND OF VIRTUAL LIMITS. THE SESSION HAD REGULAR UPS AND DOWNS THEREAFTER TOO. NO PATCHY OR CORRECTIVE WINS.
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Quote from: argalim147 on April 26, 2020, 09:26:45 AM
Can you beat this?

LLLLLLLLLLLLWLLLLLLLLLLWLLLLLLLLLLWLLLLLLLLLLWLLLLLLLLLLWLLLLW ?

I told very clearly that the worst can not be beaten by itself but it can be sustained and later won too. Say, it has 50 spins with 6/50 hit rate. If we get 100 more trials ahead of this with say 47/100 wins there, it should win easily. Trying to win 6/50 in itself will be a laughstock and only martingale with unlimited chips and unlimited table limit could be the only way.
Put this L/W vertically, add about 47 wins in next 100 trials, I would love to try it . By the way, I have done even worse in my https://betselection.cc/albalaha's-exclusive/an-eyeopener-challenge-and-query/ challenge already. It had 60/200 in the beginning of a very long haul session that won finally.

Quote from: argalim147 on April 26, 2020, 05:39:28 AM
This is also beaten by 5 step martingale which start to work after 5 virtual losses.

Hmm. You are trying to do curve fitting upon a session. To get 5 successive losses to put your bet, at times, you might need to wait entire day and whenever you get an opportunity, still loose. I am talking of an all over playing idea where neither a 5 step martingale after 5 virtual losses nor a 10 or even 20 steps martingale will work. Had such basic things been sufficient to beat the humongous probabilities associated with the game, this would have ended 400 years ago.

Why don't you go for this?

Quotethis is easy beaten by 10 steps marty

Hmm. Marty can beat anything with no limits. 10 step marty will bust in the 10th successive loss and we know we can even get a 25 step loss. No point in playing such rotten ideas. I told my bankroll is only 300 units and I have faced world's worst known cases so far.

QuoteSo I don't see the point

I do not see any point in any other discussion where everybody is churning failed ideas. Even after decades of being on gambling forums, people still come up with 10 step martingale. How silly is that? Just think that I am making a repository of worst looking sessions of all sorts.