Marty or any other unrealistic progression is no solution to the trouble posed by randomness.

Quote from: alrelax on August 25, 2018, 02:52:52 PM
And what you just said, "Will it not end with a huge loss taking away whatever you have won so far as any other progression does?", is basically what happens almost every single time, everywhere I ever play.  Even with the better skilled players. 

There are very easy defense tactics for the player, but most if not all, will believe way too much in themselves and be governed only by their own misconception of the game.

It happens with everybody because everybody uses same erroneous approach of increasing bets without any safeguard. The worst moments wait for the highest bets to get you the inevitable total loss. An empty belief that I won't get that worst moment will keep killing those stereotype progressions.

    Sadly, the topic headline doesn't match with what we are discussing herein. We aren't using any kind of maths/stats to improve from where we started. Unless a progression can successfully pass through the virtually possible worst patches without killing itself, it is not playable, in my humble opinion.

Quote from: Nickmsi on August 16, 2018, 11:45:10 AM
Hello jsintl

The progression we are using is as follows:

Flat bet for first 100 spins

If in profit after 100 spins, keep flat betting.  Always flat bet when in profit.

After 100 spins  if the total Losses greater than the total wins, increase bet +1 unit.

Keep bet the same for next 11 spins, then if in profit flat bet, else raise bet + 1 unit

Recheck for new bet every 11 spins.

We are currently winning 97/100 sessions.

The largest bet so far is 29 units.

The biggest drawdown so far is -304.

Total spins played = 68,117

Total Profit = 1,507 units

Average Profit/Session=15 units

Profit/spin=.022

Hope this helps.

Cheers
Nick

Isn't it only a  matter of luck that you are in a net profit still? Your progression is slow but is it enough to ward off big losses? Will it not end with a huge loss taking away whatever you have won so far as any other progression does?

my motivation is to do it for two reasons:
1. money, obviously;
2. because mostly people fail to earn through this

QuoteBut that means any progression, if it is to be effective, must be used at the right time. How is anyone to know what that right time is if (as you say in no. 1 in your list above) the game is totally random and unpredictable?

Now you asked something wiser. As I said, we can not make any guess and rather need not. Do we need to guess the order of wins in a martingale or labby? We just need a ratio of win. A Marty  or labby can beat any session mathematically but they are ill formed to  need  huge chips . Similarly, I can adopt a progression approach that can make me win if I get a ratio, even after a few thousand spins. Instead of expecting a win in 37 spins, I can handle if I get an average of 40. Instead of predicting what is going to happen in a few next spins, I wait for the average getting closer to my target range. Even if it doesn't go any close, I have ways to sustain the worst without much damage. Gradually, I will win or not loose big enough to recover later.

Do not consider every progression approach to be a push to win 1 unit risking 1000s. Sadly, there has been negligible work in this area.

Let me make some statements so that none come up with repeated questions upon this topic:
1. The game is total random and hence unpredictable.
2. House edge/fees/payouts makes slight variance for every bet by itself.
3. This slight edge doesn't kill a gambler by itself.
4. Most guys perceive progression by raising bet to win in lesser number of wins which is faulty and rather causes irreparable losses.
5. Flat bet is no way to win.
6. None has seen a progression meant for long run or even if there is one with countless chips, not practicable to be used.
7. Variance can not be foreseen and even its stretch or degree can not be anticipated by any methodology.
8. I do not believe in anything, so far as it is about risking money. I work on sound principals and then test it enough to arrive at a conclusion therefrom. I have played tens of thousands of hours, and tested even more.
9. Nothing conclusively can win always but it is possible to be the smartest player and have nice winning moments at most of the sessions while not losing pants at even the worst days. Winning in short run is neither possible nor desirable to a sensible person.

QuoteYour mistake is in thinking that a mild progression can make up for it.

Lol! Who said this? Being mild or harsh doesn't help without logic supporting the same. Oscar's Grind is a mild one but I do not support that: https://betselection.cc/baccarat-forum/oscars-grind/msg64327/#msg64327

Main problem about talking of progression is you can not even think beyond those rotten progressions you have been reading about and I always said they are all fool's gold. Progression is not only about raising bets blindly but unfortunately that is how every newbie perceives it to be. Increasing bets at worst times could rather kill you faster. The core idea is to strive to make a progression truly meant for the "long run". I have already defined the long run.

Quote from: ozon on August 04, 2018, 12:39:51 AM
You use your old progression all the time, has something changed and you have something new?

Yes, I improved the old one.

A virtual hit even after the worst is no guarantee  of no tricky times ahead.

Usually we push harder while losing again and again. We need to check that first. Since we can not predict the start or end of a bad phase, what we usually do is to push to win. such abrupt pushes kill us faster. So, we need to have an MM that takes care of extremes without going too deep ever. Remember, there are such bad stretches that can't be overcome by increasing bets, even if you have millions of chips.
Even forgetting extraordinary losses, instead of pushing to win them back helps.
        We just need to pre-define them and stick to that strictly.

We can easily formulate a strategy that goes according to the number of wins and losses. Instead of pushing too hard in the worst times, do the opposite. Strike when iron is hot.

@BTW,
          Waiting for a very bad stretch could only guarantee avoiding the worst  stretch.  It can not guarantee a good one ahead. What 
we actually need to learn is to survive the worst than avoiding them. Waiting for something to happen to start playing is not so wise.

@BTW,
       Long run means a period enough to bring the outcomes near average or slightly tilted from there only. A slight shift from average should always be expected as getting exact average might not be seen even in a million outcomes. I take 2000 spins/hands enough for an even money bet and 74000 spins for a single number of European roulette.

@8OR9,
              I hope you must have understood what I want to say. Getting near average is different from getting exactly at that. Regression towards mean is the real term. Also remember that if there are some very bad patches in the beginning of any bet, it might get never compensated. Do not expect that ever. That is fallacious.

QuoteSure, the answer is just the right progression. 

@Mike,
            The answer lies in understanding the probability up to the exteme and be ready to face all of them, well in advance.
A money management is essential to handle these. Sadly, most people look at age old ideas to pick from. None of the classic failure progressions will help you. They are all myopic and meant for small sessions only.

Wishful thinking of winning flat bet will never help. You can not pick the best bet by any methodology. The sooner you learn this lesson, will be better for you.

@Alrelax,
               Idiotic hyper progressions look rewarding but are fatal. Actually, progressions work in direct proportion to chance of losing all. You win pretty fast with it until you lose back all. Take classic martingale for that manner, it wins one unit easily till it gives back all in just one bad stretch. Casino would love to see a player using marty. He ensures the slowest win and the fastest loss.

The rotten debate or whining over house edge are not my cup of tea. Those who feel that the game is not beatable or worth earning are only myopic in my humble knowledge. Pressing on old world ideas to earn from casino will get one nowhere, that is for sure.

To win, in a game of roulette or baccarat or anything alike you need to understand this fact:
   Anything is possible in short run but in long run, things will be closer to the average expectancy.

    IF we understand and agree over this, what we should do are:
a) do not try to predict for short run
b) do not try any silly progression meant for a short run of play as it is exactly what kills you and throws you out of casino.  Idiotic hyper
    progressions killed more gamblers than road accidents. avoid them to survive for long.
c) since short run is very volatile, you need to have ample chips to keep on playing.
d) since you can neither predict as to what will you get while playing and house edge and variance both can keep you behind the house,
    do not dream of winning flat either.

House edge doesn't kill by their own. If you know that a single number of say European roulette has to hit within 37 or even 39 spins, you can plan to beat that easily but even after knowing the same hit of 1000 times in say 37,000 or even 39,000 spins, you get confused. Uneven scatter of hits, fistful of chips, brain full of greed and silly progressions together kill you.

Just think over long run and make a plan to play their, nothing kills you and you can earn some money.

House edge is a big evil and when it is tough to beat approx 1% edge of banker or player(rather considered impossible), thinking of beating a 14x house edge could be closer to insanity. I have worked upon tie bet for a very long time with no success. Why would one go for such bets with super heavy burden?