@Mike,

QuoteIf the game is fair then in the long run you will break even, but even offering a fair game the casino is still likely to win because they have an infinite bank in comparison with any individual player. Look up "Risk of Ruin" for the math.

"Will" is a wrong word here. You may be at break even, losing or winning even after a million spins. A perfect equilibrium of all bets may not be possible even after a billion spins. Think over it.

QuoteThat wouldn't prove anything, and it's easy with hindsight to say "I would have quit here" AFTER the session. The truth is in some sessions you will never get ahead.

I never said I will quit or not, I just said I will be ahead with my bankroll, for sure at one point of time or other if it is only about beating house edge alone, be it 185 spins or 1850 spins. Give me any kind of scatter. That is not as easy to do for everyone.

QuoteOf course, you will win in the long run.

Again you are being hasty. The long run, in which you might get to win, you may give up all hopes of winning back your losses. Check  #3 of American Zumma book. It kept on so bad for 15k spins, even giving 1 chip for 100 placed bets won't help. The terms, "may" and "will" should never be used as synonyms of each other.

      I just mean to say that the house edge alone could be handled in playable sessions. Variance coupled with foolish money management feed casinos. Crying over house edge alone is like saying, a 105 kg wrestler has borne edge over another wrestler of 100 kg weight and that with 100 kg weight is mathematically bound to lose.

Over centuries of casino gambling, people easily conclude that the casino games are invincible only because of negative expectations or house edge/house fees.

     This is only partially true. Let us do these reality checks:

1. Play roulette without house edge/without zero/fair payout and try to beat that conclusively in long run, you will fail again. We have lots of no zero spins to try.

2. Give me any session with only the house edge/house fee and any scatter of outcomes in say roulette. Give me a number to beat that comes only with the house edge. Give me a session of 185 spins with a number coming only 5 times, anywhere. I will get in plus at a given point, irrespective of the location of that win.

3. OK. If the negative expectations beat a game alone, I turn the tables for you. I will give u an edge. I will give u 1 chip for free for every 100 bets placed, irrespective of your winning or losses. Can you beat the game in the long run with this positive expectation?

      Ranting over the house edge is pretty foolish in my opinion. It helps the casino but it is not the sole culprit for players.
Actually there are three more bigger evils in gambling from gamblers' side:

1) Ignorance of what can happen with any bet, whenever you choose to play;
2) Greed to beat the casino with fistful of chips and in an hour or two
3) Variance and wrong presumptions regarding your betselection and your proven failure money management approaches/strategies.

Reality is, you can never guess or predict with any accuracy as what will happen in your session with your bet. When you win, you win the least(usually) and when you lose, you lose all you have(usually).

So, either have fun with gambling without thinking of losses or quit it. Trying failed ideas or ranting over the house edge won't help.

We can survive even the worst possible and win thereafter in average times. Making a workable progression like this needs out of box approaches and innovation. Ranting over existing failure ideas is not the way.

QuoteLearn basic probability, try to understand the logic of why you can't beat negative expectation games by using patterns, trends, or progressions. Break free of the fallacies and start a new life. 

---Mike


  I agree to this statement to the extent of patterns and trends but refute the statement further regarding progressions. Actually, most of the people never worked upon a progression meant for the long run, so it is  easy to negate all. Reality is, a sensible progression can help. House edge is not the sole culprit rather ignorance is.

        If you think that a negative expectation or game of house edge is sufficient to beat players by its own, it is not.
For example, give me a session of roulette with 111 spins and a number placed anywhere three times(confirming house edge of 2.54% of European roulette), I will get a positive score, for sure, without going deep in losses. It might not hold true without a progression though. It is merely an example of how a progression can help handling negative expectations. In another way, the progression can handle temporary variance too and get a net win, thereafter.

Quote from: AsymBacGuy on May 22, 2018, 03:52:52 AM
Exactly this.

as.

Thanks. If I can get an edge of 6% by my bets, I will ruin the casino, in the same manner as a casino does to average players. Nice hypothesis.

Hmm. A person with 6% edge against house should bet flat with such an amount that can let him survive in the worst possible scenarios. After an obvious enhancement in the bankroll(due to piling profits), he should increase his base bet and continue to bet flat on that amount. Gradually, the 6% edge and this way of increasing the base bet will optimize his profits and keep him safe as well.

"Mine is better"..
"Oh really? What made you think so?

"Well. I think it has to be better."

"OK. does your way work mathematically?"

"No way, House edge won't let it be."

"OK. Wanna get it simulated?"

"Hell no. I know it worked for me and it might not work for anybody else."

"Did you yourself earn good money from it?"

"Not really but I lost a bit lesser than the worst chaps in casino, so it looks better to me".

"Alright. Enjoy it."

Things are not that simple. Simulate a randomly picked big data of baccarat outcomes to know the real picture. If you can not do so manually, get it coded. Making statements of "unbeatable" is no child's play.

QuoteI meant 2% or 4 % 5 % etc of your total bankroll..........not the bankroll ( or buy in ) you take to the casino for one session.

       Even that is hypothetical. Have you determined your lifetime bankroll in advance? I play with day's bankroll and do not count if it is 3% or 10% of what I can lose max. This bookish term of life bankroll is unrealistic, in my humble opinion.

Quote from: 8OR9 on September 13, 2017, 01:27:29 PM
When asked how someone did today in speculating in the stock market, Forex or commodities, or a casino game such as baccarat dice or roulette, the amateur ( which includes 99.9% of the people in a casino), will respond saying that he made $ 200 or lost $ 400.

The intelligent, professional, speculator or gambler will say he won 2% of bankroll or 4 % of bankroll or lost 2% of bankroll or lost 4 % of bankroll

  I do not agree on this in terms of casino gambling. Coming out of casino at -4% or +2% of what you carried to bet as bankroll is hilarious. So you go to casino with $500 in pockets and after losing $20 in 3-4 hands you say, oh, it is -4% and I being an  intelligent, professional, speculator or gambler should stay prudent and run out now. What i the point of  carrying $500 then? Go casino with $20 only and then again you need to try all you have. If I go to play a session of roulette with $500, I try to rather come out at +300 or -500. At times, I can try to even make $1000 profit and I have done it numerous times.
Gambling is not an investment. It is only about assessing risk and reward of your style of betting and then determining when you come out of casino.

Pattern Breaker has been one of the most talked about system on this forum. It is a martingale with thinking that waiting for a particular stretch of  pattern will make it tougher to be beaten ahead, while it is not the reality. Even if you get 10 reds in a row, 11th is as much likely as it is unlikely. Chances of hitting one or more zeros can not be ruled out too at bad spots that makes it even worse.
          I have simulated of it enough despite a mere simple rational thinking doesn't warrant even any simulation and confirm that not just Pattern Breaker but "any bet selection" in a purely random game does not help by itself. Playing martingale is like fooling yourself and fastest way to lose huge. I do not want to spoil any discussion preaching these things but since my name crept in(through blue angel), I had to answer.

Any prediction of short or long run?

Nevertheless, it is a rage in the world financials. Many countries even banned it or declared it unlawful if not illegal. Cryptos created thousands of new millionaires. Basically, crypto currencies are great for foreign remittances. Faster and economic than other conventional mediums. No foreign exchange fees. After plunging a lot, they are surging back. No wonder, online casinos are allowing them too. We need to see how long they sustain and how much their prices change. Blockchain emerged as more of an investment tool than mode of remittance. Will it change?

Dear Friends,
                 We are in this forum for years. I wonder that none ever cared to talk about crypto currencies. I remember that about two years back, I asked Victor to do a programming for me and he asked me to pay by bitcoins. I could not get local resource to find bitcoin so easily, in my country then. However, I used Liberty Reserve too much which was also a virtual currency bought by exchanging for cash. Till that time I heard of bitcoin several times but never knew it has multiplied thousands of times by then. In 2017 January I saw bitcoin value going over $1000 and then got shocked to know how far it has gone but got afraid to buy Bitcoin still as I thought it could saturate but it didn't and bitcoin reached almost $20k. Suddenly, it became a rage when prices were rising over 10% a day. Then it felt more than half its best value and even gone below $8k. Now, it again is going up albeit at a controlled pace and at USD10,580 by the time I am writing this topic.
             I invested a bit in it when it tanked to its lowest price in 2018 along with Ripple, another promising crypto asset. I believe this year will be very crucial for cryptos. They will either go vanished this year or multiply again. Many experts predict bitcoin prices to go over 30-40k by the end of 2018 and ripple to touch upto $20 but in my opinion, it is merely speculation based upon history. It is very volatile thing and putting too much money into cryptos is not wise. I expect 50-100% growth in prices within a year, specially in ripple.
Who else is into investing or trading crypto assests? Speak up buddies.

Thank to you all. I really missed you all. I believe that this place is great as it is too but Victor has the right to decide how things go in future. I hope you guys are playing still.