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Messages - Albalaha

#646
Quote from: zuffle on June 23, 2016, 08:09:34 AM
Zero roulette still only pays 35:1, when it should be 36:1 so there is still a house edge.

ARE YOU COMING OUT OF AN ASYLUM? I am talking of no zero roulette here. When there is only 36 numbers total(due to no zero) how can payout be 1:36? Then everybody will cover all 36 numbers and earn 1 unit in every spin. 1:35 is the fair payout if you understand the basic maths. Else go to a primary school.
#647
I am here talking of "No zero roulette" as offered by   betvoyager.com or similar casinos where there is no zero in the wheel and hence the odds and payouts are perfect. It becomes a zero house edge game too, by default.
Earlier I saw no zero roulette in some other casinos like betfair too but now betvoyager claims to be only casino offering the same.

[attachimg=3]


                                          Further, having no zero has special benefits to EC betting. Although, there is a catch. They charge 10% of the total winnings that you got when you close a session. So, if you lose something, you give to casino money and here even at a net win, casino will earn a bit from you. They will automatically deduct the sum of 10% of the net profit of the last concluded session. If a session doesn't conclude in 24 hrs betvoyager will take it concluded and if there is a net profit, 10% will be deducted therefrom.
Bet spread on no zero roulette:
[attachimg=2]

          Only difference between bet spread of standard European roulette vs no house edge no zero roulette is the minimum bet of 1 cent vs 5 cents. A bet range of 5 cents to Euro 2000 is huge enough.

Now, a million dollar question is whether it is any beneficial than usual European roulette or french roulette(betvoyager doesn't offer French roulette so far with la partage rule)? It is also noteworthy that earlier rule for deduction of 10% from net winning was very different. Earlier, if you have played no zero roulette or other no house edge games, they used to count your profit from that and if you play other games too and remain at net profit still, they used to deduct the 10% of net winnings from the no house edge games at the time of withdrawal. Now they don't bother to wait for that. The moment you come out a winner, you get charged and money gets deducted automatically from your balance. Let's investigate the true impact of the said no house edge games and no zero roulette in particular.   
   
To understand the real house edge of the casino, in such games, lets consider a hypothetical situation.
Let's consider the same game in a real casino with similar rules. Two brothers "A" and "B" come to play having common funds which they share half each. A always bets Red while B always bets Black. They always bet $10 on their respective bets.
  After 100 spins, A wins on red 54 times and happy with $40 net profit. While B has won only 46 times and at a loss of $40. So far, things look perfect.

   Now, casino personnel charge $4 from A for winning a net profit of $40, so his net win reduces to $36 only. Together, they are at a net loss of $4 ($40 loss- $36 win). So, the house edge is still there. In European roulette, theoretically, in $1000 bets made, one should lose $27.40. In no  zero roulette, it varies differently in different situations.  After the collective bets made of $2000(each A and B made bets of $1000 ), they lost $4 to the house only. In the discussed case, house edge came to be 0.20% but it may vary from situation to situation.
        It is pertinent to understand the real meaning of no house edge and no zero and its real overall effect taking into account the 10% fees charged on the net wins, when one wins.

           Say, I play EC bets only betting Euro 100 averagely per spin. Single zero European roulette is supposed to take away Euro 2.70 per spin as house edge and in 100 spins we are supposed to be down by Euro 270 while in no zero roulette, we are not going to lose even a cent this way. Say, we remain at break even after 100 spins and then win 3 units in next 100 spins, i.e. winning Euro 300. We close the session and betvoyager charges Euro 30 only. Where is the harm? Since we play in the expectation of being a net winner, no house edge in the form of no zero roulette, is indeed a boon. It is like tipping the croupier at the end of a very successful session.

  I read a very ridiculous topic by Steve H, admin of various roulette forums: http://betselection.cc/roulette-forum/betvoyager-no-zero-roulette-is-worse-than-single-zero-roulette-it's-a-scam/msg44333/#msg44333 . He was, however, answered very well by many members on his misconceptions.

             Further, no zero means absence of the green goblin zero giving the biggest relief to EC bettors. Getting equilibrium is at least theoretically and mathematically possible in the long run that wasn't so with standard European and American roulette.
In their own words:

[attachimg=1]

To conclude, I would love to see the same no zero roulette with real land based casinos(I believe it is doable easily on automated roulette) and online live dealer casinos too. Not doable on a manual dealer in a land based casino though.:)

If betvoyager has patented this, they should come up themselves with live dealer roulette with no zero roulette and same set of rules.

#648
Exactly Thelaw

            Patience is the first trait of a positive gambler but merely waiting for something to happen before starting to bet doesn't help to win. That will be a fallacy then. No prior condition guarantees any better future. It is much more than that. If someone wants to play all over, that is doable too but with much more risk to lose 300 units, my way.
#649
Quote from: ADulay on June 22, 2016, 04:35:17 PM
I apologize if this question has been asked previously.

Are these "decisions" only bets placed or are they from a continuous game, meaning you are playing every hand or spin?

AD

          Every Win and loss is real and we played all of them in all the given sessions. Actually, the purpose is to see if despite all our safeguards below average or harsh moments come, can positive gambling defend and win still or it merely relies on the old rhetoric that I won't get such bad times or I will run away in those times as running away is not a remedy.
#650
9th Harsh session:
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               Count L   113   
WORST   -180    COUNT W 89   






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#651
Quote from: Denzie on June 22, 2016, 01:16:40 PM
Oooh really?   :-\

Oh no! It is you but unfortunately none says so. I am not an expert but merely a researcher or a student of randomness.
#652
Quote from: Denzie on June 22, 2016, 01:13:03 PM
Progressions are dangerous. Yup. Unless. ...
That variance. .... does it have limits ? If it does then how would we attack?

Wait something to happen?  Bet with 1unit bets. Lost? Wait some more and try again with 2unit bets ?


Hello P.A.  :)

Everything has a virtual limit. If you have never heard of them, you can refer to: http://albalaha.lefora.com/topic/13069557/Virtual-limits-of-dispersionvariance#.V2qRiPl97IU

and this too:

http://betselection.cc/albalaha's-exclusive/if-roulette-has-no-memory-why-there-hasn't-been-succesive-36-hits-of-an-ec/
#653
Alrelax,
         There are three kinds of members here.
1. Lurkers and clappers: This is the absolute majority. They do not and can not contribute anything valuable and they are very well aware of that. They join to ask their queries and PMs. Least harmful class.

2. Mediocres: A few dozen members belong to this class. Many of them feel themselves superior to most but deep inside they either do not play or play and lose. They write more topics and posts here than the number of sessions they played. Many of them are quarrelsome too. This is a dangerous class of members,. They behave as if they invented this game.

3. Experts and winners: Most of them either do not write much or write only substance. Many behave like lurkers. A very few in numbers.

4. Fallacy Mongers and copy-paste guys: They are experts in stealing ideas and writing silly daily systems without ever thinking if they are helping others or making fast and big losers. They show small simulations to prove their point and have long debates upon them. Give them a little adverse session and they start cursing and deleting you. Indeed, that is most dangerous class and they do lots of mudslinging and leg pulling. They do not have even a single topic worth writing but they not just write systems daily but copy-paste in all the gambling forums around.

             You will find almost no sensible methodology or direction that increases anyone's chance to better him games.
  Nevertheless, forums go on and we being a part of that for one reason or more.
#654
             In my main Sales page I mentioned that one person my get that for free as well. Who will be that person? Someone who can beat each and every session mentioned in : http://betselection.cc/albalaha's-exclusive/harsh-sessions-won-by-positive-gambling-module/
playing each and every spin in a clear pre defined manner within a bankroll of 300 units and max bet 50 as I did. Such person deserves to exchange his system with that of mine and gain mutually. I believe there is none among the members here who has any such MM and even if someone has that will never think of sharing that. I would love to be proved wrong on this point.
#655
QuoteOk, but that doesn't sound very practical or realistic for actual play if you need 500 spins in order for things to even out.

To win in the cases where u get only 7 wins in 50 spins or 20 wins in 100, what u need most is patience. If you think gambling is all about having fistful of chips and earning for sure in an hour, you are talking of negative gambling that is a sucker. Positive gambling corrects all fallacious thinking and provide the most accurate approach to play that has a positive expectation to win in/after the worst too apart from regular sessions. If you do not have enough patience or chips you should have too much of good luck to win. Sadly, even people with the best luck do not stand a winner in long run by their luck alone.
#656
@BTW,
     I am not saying there can be a streak of 100 but there can be anything else upto the virtual limits, any moment.
#657
Harsh Session #8:

   Maxbet   9              Finish   1   
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WORST   -31   COUNT W   46      






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#658
Dear Janos @ Audiokinesis,
         Indeed the last two sessions are not so harsh with compare to earlier 5 but it all depends on the MM you chose to play with. Bet of 93 or 79 units should not have been needed but Drawdown is not that big with compare to the variance we are getting.

You are closer to perfection, yet need to work more to make it better.
;)
#659
Quote from: alrelax on June 21, 2016, 12:35:35 PM
If a player can't get through the short run he will never get to the long run. 

Large and lengthy progressions at baccarat is the most absurd thing ever.  The most patient players and those with large bankrolls will hit it extremely hard and quick in short blasts.  Such as 1-3-2-6 or 1-5-10-20.  At least the ones I am acquainted with and the more successful ones. 

You can come up with these 25 or 28 or 32 hand progressions, but they will fail the upper, and I mean upper like 99% or more of the time.

This game can not be won playing long repetitive hours on a consistent basis.  Not by you, not by me not by anyone.

Alrelax,
             I respect you for your experience and humorous approach but applied gambling mathematics is not as simple as 1+1=2.
You have only gone through the old rhetoric of Einstein that only way to win is to steal chips from the the table when croupier isn't looking but there are much more better ways. If you look at my section you will find a thread called, "Holy Grail: randomness can be beaten....."
It is only about understanding why old progressions failed to perform in long run and you will have a new insight to look in other directions.
Until Aeroplane wasn't invented, think of regular air travel across continents were only a fairy tale but finally it was achieved. To do that you just do not need to change the maths or probability or pay out or the house edge, you just need to see them from different angles.
               Old classic progressions and way to play are proven failures, hands down. Either one can innovate to make something better and more logical or just try your luck in a casino and have fun.
#660
Quote from: Jake on June 21, 2016, 12:31:11 PM
Albalaha,

Most progressions which I've experimented with that do well over longer stretches don't do so well in the short sequences. This is because you are always anticipating the run from hell so don't raise your stakes too quickly.

Although the run from hell has to be provided for, most sessions will be average, so does your money management make reasonable profits for the overwhelming majority of average sessions?

I can provide you with some bad runs and would be interested to see how your progression does with them.
Jake,
My progression does great in good and average times too and it is not tailor made only for bad stretches. It is a dynamic approach of play that is tough even to imagine for 99.99999% of players.
           You can post tough sessions but the toughest patch will also smooth down later, so u need to send me atleast 500 spins starting from the start of the bad stretch. I do not claim to win each and every permutation and combination or every possible scenario but can hold in the most or lose 300 units max.
            An MM meant only for a particular style of variance is sure to lose in others as Martingale, Laboucher, HP Johnson, D'alembert etc does. Those who are unable to simulate long enough, get trapped in those easily.
          Jake, you also need to specify if you and Betjack are one and same and who among you wrote me recently on my email?