Quote from: soxfan on March 19, 2016, 04:38:54 AM
Sorry, I promised the old Armenian cat that I wouldn't divulge the beans and reveal the specific of his play. So, I can only speak generally, hey hey.

Have you verified his claim? Can it pass through the worst of cases and winning at last?

Quote from: soxfan on March 18, 2016, 06:42:31 PM
I've always thought that you could run a progression deep enough to allow you to withstand most any negative outcome. There's an Armenian cat on a member only dice forum that has come up with what seem to be an unbreakable style of play. But, there are practical consideration in that for his style ya need a 10 000 units lifetimes bankroll and ya need to have access to tables offering the fat spread so you can make a max bet of slightly more than 800 unit. I said it again and I'll say it before, in the end it boils down to havin the balls and bankroll baby, hey hey.

  Can you reproduce that MM for evaluation here? If it is set to win, a bet of 1000 or a bankroll of 20k units is OK for me. Let us see that.

Quote from: Jimske on March 18, 2016, 12:51:07 AM
I guess you weren't paying attention.  The D'Alembert like ALL progressions are failures without being able to take a measurement of losing trends and make adjustments.  My example above is just to demonstrate such an adjustment.  When one uses the -X, +X; FLAT or a variant offset it ceases to be a D'Alembert.

You can have the last word.  I just wanted to add my 2 cents about the progressions.

J

I appreciate your inputs but a demonstration over a session that starts too bad and later only gets average, will help more to establish your viewpoints as to how do you expect it to work. Every MM is good enough for an average session but I am talking of when extreme comes followed by "normal" flow of wins.

D'alembert or its other variants do work upto a particular stage and is not meant to work well in long run thereby. When there is a very bad stretch going like 25 wins in 100 spins or anything alike, it goes so bad that later it never gets to recover, in any manner. After extreme bad sessions, very good ones can not be expected always and in expectation of getting "corrective" wins, we get "not so good" time and "below average" times that makes it failure.

AP guys do not rely upon any mathematical progression or "system". Their advantage wins money for them in long run.

They can, however, do increase their bet sizes and capitalize gradually to win even more. You must have heard of "Kelly criterion".

Quotethen we need to have a progression,
that recoup -195losses,
by 405hits.
=====================================
or win, at least 1u, with only 405hits/1000spins!!!

that's a grail!!!

Absolutely.
            You won't find any such progression that can beat 405/1000 wins of an EC in all patterns they can appear.

Quote from: greenguy on March 17, 2016, 07:14:13 AM
So 3700 spins is the long run?

What happens when you have done 100 of these long runs and you now have 370000 spins?

Doesn't that make your 3700 spins look like a short run, or hit and run?

I'm confused..

3700 spins could be considered long run for an EC bet but I have defined it far better in this topic:
http://albalaha.lefora.com/topic/19400636/Long-run-in-gambling#.Vup3uNJ97IU

  I believe that we can discard martingale, Labouchere and Fibonacci type super aggressive progressions that none can afford to use being realistic of the obvious failures that we can face any moment. They are of course not meant for playing for the long run.
                      Oscar's Grind or raising +1 on a win and betting the same on losses is one of the long run progressions suggested. It is still better than many other conventional progressions but still, any simulation of long run proves it as a failure because it fails to earn unless we get a good streak of wins after losses. A normal flow of wins and losses could create many layers that it fails to break.
                         

We do need replies of our posts and unread topics on the top.

QuoteDo you expect everyone to agree with your biased views and congratulate you on the same time?!
You (think) know better than anyone?
Fine, just use what you know to win and let the rest of us who we are inferior than you to lose, it's our problem after all!

  and you want to force feed and mislead everyone to play a delayed marty believing you alone? I did not just speak but cared to code a tracker as you propose to play. You weren't scare in boasting about winning the worst of red in roulette30 forum while here you started to sing, "why would I play red" and all that. If my views are biased or wrong, prove it with correct examples, simulations as I did. Speaking loud and writing big paragraphs you are not going anywhere.

There is nothing like trends or patterns or "going with the wind" or "going against the wind" in a game of pure randomness.

No betselection can outsmart randomness or lessen the house edge or the volatility of variance.

http://albalaha.lefora.com/topic/19400641/like-patterns-random-game-help#.VuP4H3197IU

  To showcase this, I simulated entire zuma 1600 baccarat removing Tie which has nearly 114k bets. I did them with 5 kind of betselections like betting the last, betting the opposite last, betting before last and switching at certain losses. All performed almost equally and each had good, bad, average and extreme streaks.

http://albalaha.lefora.com/topic/11104358/5-different-kind-bet-selections-perform-zumma-1600#.VuP50X197IU

Come out of the fanciful illusions of pattern playing or "identifying the running pattern" or "current flow" of randomness. They do exist in our wishful thinking only. They do not help in real world.

Quote from: Blue_Angel on March 11, 2016, 08:05:23 AM
That's true but you do recognize  that there are better bet selections and not everything is the same, right?

I say, there is no better bet selection. Only a time could be favorable for a bet or against it. A bet itself has no advantage attached in it.

Quote from: Blue_Angel on March 11, 2016, 05:51:59 AM
If you are worrying about losing streaks just stop after 1 loss and continue when your selection hits again.

A choppy session would always bring ONLY losses if we do that.
LWLWLWLWLWLW

FHG is based upon unrealistic assumptions and bets sooner or later gets too high to lose everything you earned ever. As good as playing marty. You are only prolonging the death 37 times. One loss can not be covered in 100s of winning sessions. If you think you can make it more rational by putting any stop loss mark, it won't work as well.
     all these fallacious methods born out of the womb of ignorance and lack of programming skills.

http://albalaha.lefora.com/topic/19400624/Before-you-try-to-play-with-any-system#.VuEQLX197IU

QuoteYou state you ' do not assume things', and that 'randomness means no predictions possible in short run and in long run'.  Does this mean you cannot predict at all using RNG ?  Perhaps you can explain this more clearly for us.

We do not predict in gambling but only speculate. I do not even try to speculate in short run. I use RTM and law of large numbers and an MM that can pass through the worst possible without eating too many chips.

QuoteReyth has played only once on actual roulette wheel and this was online studio, not real casino, so I don't think him as the proper person to ask.

  I am not asking to seek his opinion or presumptions. As a programmer he can simulate the available real roulette data and RNG and let all know the reality.

QuoteIf you really believe that roulette is unpredictable then the only two things which remaining are progressions and luck!
Sorry if I don't share the same point of view.

Roulette is unpredictable to the extent to its virtual limits, in short run. For example, in any 100 spins, an EC can hit anywhere from 75 to 25 times, none can tell this beforehand. None can predict with even slightest accuracy except may be experts of advantage play as Claude Shannon, Pelayo, Joseph Jagger etc did.

Luck is beyond your control sou can't plan for that. Money management is something, one can work on. Sadly, see a dozen forums of gambling online and hundreds of book on gambling, none tried to make an MM for long run.