The alternate B/P symmetrical scheme

This is an interesting approach to let hands get their flow without having to guess nothing but the lenght of the winning and losing situations.
It's a strict mechanical registration.

The procedure is very simple to follow: after the first hand is dealt (say it's a P) every next hand will follow the PBPBPBPB...scheme up to the end of the shoe.
If it's a B we'll use the BPBPBPBP....scheme.

Naturally if the B or P hand dictated by the scheme will win, we'll sign a W, otherwise a L is signed.

So for example a shoe sequence as

BBB
PP
B
PP
B
PP...

first hand is a B so the sequence becomes a WLWWLLLWWWL...

To cut a long story short, only chopping situations of some quantity happen to form long winning or losing patterns as any streak of any lenght at either side will stop the winning or losing process.

The theoretical plan is to face a pure symmetrical 50/50 preordered proposition with the sure asymmetrical hands distribution (and quality) of every shoe dealt.

Obviously probabilities to W or L remain (almost) the same and in fact, as always, we're not interested about getting long W spots or trying to avoid the L ones, just to evaluate an average impact of such registration over the entire shoe and for series of shoes.

Notice that probability to get long WLWLWLWL or LWLWLWLW patterns are related just to the occurence of streaks of lenght 5 or higher: e.g. BBBBB (WLWLW under BP plan and LWLWL under PB plan), the same about PPPPP.

At any rate, every streak happening at either side will make at least a W and of course half of the chopping lines will produce a long winning (or losing) sequence.
Since the number of 3+s streaks per shoe roams quite good around averages, we know that besides doubles stopping a homogeneous L or W pattern, many LWL or WLW (at least) spots will come around.

For now I stop.

as.

As KFB correctly stated, every shoe dealt in the universe will present 3IAR situations at one or either side of the medal (losing or winning).
The fact that we might 'jump' some hands doesn't change the issue, we're just interested about the probability to get a W (or L) followed by another W (L) and another W (L) even if we bet hands #5, #11 and #14.
An example is when we try to get three P doubles with no P 3s in between that obviously can't be bet consecutively. 

If the shoe would offer just up to 2IAR W or L situations, the game wouldn't exist.
For the same reason we know that such 2IAR at either side must, sooner or later, transform into 3IAR.

But differently to the hypothetical game I traced in my last post, along the shoe nothing prevent us to bet toward the side that seems to offer better probabilities to form a first positive 3IAR.

In some way and knowing that not all of the time we can wait for fresh shoes, our approach might work way better when we adopt a strategy linked with a 'reverse' strategy.
Easier sayed than done, but this is one of the few options to be astoundingly 'right' at 2-3 or more consecutive shoes without having a tremendous luck working for us.

The important thing to remember, imo, is to shift the 'strategy' ASAP, so not delaying it. This because particularly 'good' or 'bad' shoes are way less likely to happen.

After all, the number of 3IAR spots per shoe are roaming around an average value that rarely touch strong deviations.

OoOoO

Say we set up a 'random' betting strategy where the red or black nature of the first card dealt on the previous hand will dictate the side we'll bet next (for real or fictionally) and we register the results in term of W and L.
Suppose a red card entices a Banker bet and a black card a Player bet.
Now look at your registration card and take care about how W and L will place and form patterns.

Say our goal is to spot when a 3IAR W or L pattern will be 'more likely' to happen without a precise 'method' to follow.
We could bet singles and doubles, long streaks, dominant patterns, my plans, etc.
Obviously if we'd think the next hand will be more probably a W we will bet Banker if the first card at previous hand was red or Player if it was a black card and vice versa.

Notice that resolved hands will come out randomly of course, yet the first card nature is somewhat affected by a constant dependent 'world' working at various degrees as more red or black cards are live in the deck, higher will be the probability that this new 'road' will take a univocal 'betting the same side' line.

It's like that the actual deck is playing a parallel game with us, getting its strings of wins and losses.

Unfortunately such approach works quite bad at HS rooms or premises where players are allowed to peek at cards: many times it could be difficult to spot the nature of the first card as many players like to shuffle and reshuffle their cards, yet there's always the 50% general probability that both cards are of the same color. 

A final note.

What we cannot bear is the constant arrogant attitude of so called 'gambling experts' labelling all baccarat players as 'id.iots', at the same time endorsing games as poker where itlr the rake or tournaments fees cannot be overcome by the vast majority of the players.
So let people think that poker tournament coin flips have more scientifical merit than betting Banker or Player at baccarat.
(It's not a coincidence that poker players tourneys data are evaluated only by wins not mentioning a bit about the buy-in losses).

Join a baccarat table and you are an id.iot despite the 1.15% average negative edge; join WSOP (coming up in four days) where the awarded money is taxed at origin by 11% at most tournaments and you are an 'intelligent' player. Maybe if the poker dream doesn't come true this year, you can purchase some books instructing you how to magically overcome that fkng 11% edge. "Theory of this", "Theory of that", yet poker super minds must win 'intelligent' coin flips whereas baccarat players must guess "stu.pi.d" coin flips.

Maybe as bac players we should go 'all-in' more often thus trying to take the 'intelligent' part of coin flips.
By some reasons they are not so wrong.

as. 

@KFB

*My hypothesis is they would find almost identical results if I proposed the same exercise for them to try and guess 3iar CORRECT.

With that large number of bets I'd agree.

Now let's pretend to make a similar challenge having this rules:

1- $100 are awarded if after the whole shoe is dealt, the number of CORRECT 3IAR decisions is higher than WRONG 3IAR decisions. Or vice versa.

2- Player must declare which side (Correct or Wrong) is taking before the shoe is dealt. Naturally he can't change along the way the side chosen at the start of the shoe. 

3- Only 3IAR or multiple of 3 spots at either C or W side are worth to be classified (6IAR, 9IAR, etc).

4- Obviously player must bet at least 3 'resolved' hands per shoe.

5- We just face player's action, so paying him whether he accomplished his task otherwise he pay us $100.

6- A final equal number of correct and wrong decisions are just a push, so no money is changing hands.

My comments on such 'challenge'.

Naturally it's more interesting to take the player's part first, maybe could help us in some way our real play.

a) The best scenario to look for is to be right on the very first (possible) 3IAR spot (1/0), we'll win right away $100 not giving a damn about the rest of the shoe.

It's true that if we were wrong at that first 3IAR spot and even more after two or more 3IARs, we'll have almost nothing to lose so desperately betting around every corner of the shoe hoping to get 'right' 3IAR situations balancing or surpassing the previous uncorrect ones.
Later I'll make an additional aggravating rule about that possible approach.

b) The idea to look just for 3IAR spots (no matter if losing or winning ones) should endorse the 'clustering' impact assessment, that is the 2/8 random walk probability to take the strongest univocal direction after 3 resolved hands are dealt.

c) If we are temporarily right or wrong for two consecutive hands, we'll have more reasons to focus about the pivotal third hand making us winners or losers for that sequence half of the time, in the remaining half we'll have to restart the process.
But before that, WW or LL spots are the most important to look for. 

d) Since we can't change the side declared at the start of the shoe and for the many times here mentioned difficulty to get a valuable 'balacing' factor acting along every shoe, let alone by values capable to get a kind of 'strong' opposite back-to-back strenght, we should evaluate with plenty of care about the room at our disposal offered by the actual shoe (and ties can only restrict such space).

Possible reflections about real play

Thinking about getting a final shoe award in terms of 3IAR right/wrong ratio is, imo, a fine aim to look for.
Especially if we are not forced to take at the start of the shoe the 'right' or wrong' side of the action influencing our strategy.
Thus meaning that in the vast majority of the times we need to be just one fkng point ahead to quit the shoe as winners.
Very rarely a player quits a shoe as winner after getting more losing 3IAR spots than the winning 3IAR counterpart. (And vice versa). 

After all along any shoe dealt there are no many possibilities to cross 3IAR winning or losing spots.
And whenever a 3IAR spot comes out, well it's 1 point ahead (or behind) vs its counterpart in a way or another, so favorite to ending up as predominant.
The idea that the next same category outcomes (in our example 3IAR spots) should be more likely balanced than not cannot be applied at baccarat.
Otherwise a simple progressive plan oriented to get a full or more likely partial balancement of the already results happened so far will wipe out every casino's bankroll.

Casinos make their fortunes about the probability that homogeneous things cannot stand for long and/or that 'balancement strategies' at various forms cannot work for players.
Math edge is just an additional booster to get our money but not the main reason we are separated from our money.

Think in the same way.

Try to survive at the heterogeneous situations (best by not betting at all) and consider the spots where a given 3IAR line will more likely get the best of it vs its counterpart.

as.

Yep, klw...

If it's very difficult to lose the entire bankroll in very few spots, the same thing applies to the probability to double or almost double the initial investment.

Without any shadow of doubt, bac probabilities move around 'clustered' patterns making way less likely 'hopping' A/B probabilities standing for long.
And of course the least 'clustered' pattern to look for is 1.
So many 'reversed' strategies come out to be exploitable.

Taking KFB points:

definitely shoes are more likely to produce polarized situations at either way and by whimsical different values, yet what happened at the start or intermediate portions of the shoe is a fair indicator of what will happen next.

It's true that B or P 3s eventually belong to a more likely 3s/1-2s ratio, nonetheless itlr we'll face a slight greater number of shoes poorer of 3s than richer of 3s.

Another example is considering doubles vs 3+s streaks at byb and/or sr.

as.

Very interesting points.
Hope to give you my comments very soon.
Cheers

as.

For once pretend your goal is to lose faster than you can.
Besides wildly wagering side bets getting a very distant probability to happen, which moves would you take to accomplish this task?

as.

Let's start with the assumption that by betting every hand or a lot of hands the probability to win after 3 or 4 shoes dealt is minimal.
Of course also the probability to lose all the 3 or 4 shoes is minimal.

Since it's more likely to get a final losing shoe than a winning shoe (and this fact perpetuates infinitely), it should be wise to bet only those hands that seem to get a 'clustered' winning potential.
On the other end we know that even betting every hand or plenty of hands a winning shoe will very likely come out in the same 4-shoe interval.

The 'old' worthless trick to use a strong progression in order to reverse a losing shoe into a winning shoe is the casinos' heaven as it can't be done by any means, yesterday now and in the next few years the human species is entitled to remain in this planet.

Then:

-in 100% of cases, a high frequency betting leads to get more losing shoes than winning shoes;

- there's a very high probability that after a set of 4-shoes one shoe will be a winning one even by betting every hand.

First possible countermeasure.

- Betting fewer hands. That move alone can't reverse the L/W shoes ratio, but surely will lower the HE impact. At the same time helping acute players to realize that things move around 'clusters' of more detectable lenght (see later).

Second possible countermeasure

- probability to get just one winning shoe 'no matter what' are overwhelming the remaining possible set of 4-shoe 16 combinations.
So for example after two losing shoes the probability to get at least one winning shoe in the next two shoes is greater than 25% (naturally to be really valuable our B bets must get at least a 51.3% winning probability and P bets at least a 50.1% winning probability).
The same about experiencing three straight losing shoes, the final fourth shoe will get a better than 50% probability to be a winning shoe. (And the same B 51.3%/ P 50.1% winning ratio applies). 

Obviously after any winning shoe the probability to encounter another winning shoe in the 4-shoe format is reduced, actually this is the only situation where the s.tup.id 'quit when you're ahead' suggestion will be (partially) worth.

The transitory 'lead' should be assessed about how many times a given probability event failed or succeeded to reach its 'average' value (for example a 0.75/0.25  probability model should get a 3:1 winning pace to break even).
Surpassed certain values and according to the expected number of hands left, probability that the 'silent side' will get a substantial lead over the counterpart is very low.

as.

Hi KFB!

Tomorrow I'll respond to you.

Cheers

as.

Hi KFB! Thanks for your interest.

Q1/A1: My thought about baccarat is focused about the 'actual card distribution' and not about B/P patterns.
Well, B/P baccarat streaks are shorter than a random 50/50 proposition and the asymmetrical math force will slightly shift the results, but both features are too whimsically distributed to be exploited.
Therefore, imo, Ws and Ls must be assessed about the 'average' and 'actual' probability of those patterns that are more likely to show up.
Since a perfect 'balanced' patterns world happening at each section of the shoe is out of question, we should investigate when a given pattern will take the transitory 'lead' over the counterpart in either W or L way.
Naturally we can't know precisely how many unbalanced patterns will happen at every shoe dealt, let alone about their lenght.
Yet we may estimate the probability to show up at least one time or, better, the probability to produce an average amount of W situations.
Notice that we do not necessarily need a W>L ratio to be long term winners, just to evaluate when a W cluster is more likely to show up in a way or another. (See later). 

Q2/A2: since baccarat outcomes are more likely distributed along unsteady 'unbalanced' lines, it's quite improbable that after a long losing sequence a specular winning succession will come out.
Tricks to lower such feature by adopting a progressive plan almost always lead to an eventual disaster.

Best way to think that such loss will be balanced by a proportional winning amount is to let many shoes to come out, hoping that a plan will slowly get its due proportional share of wins.
If every HS bac player would adhere to this simple strategy, baccarat wouldn't exist as the idea for such players to stay in the 'losing' side for long cannot be accepted. So forcing the improbable to happen after the 'more likely' had happened.

as.

Clustered destiny

We've already seen that no matter the strategy utilized' long hopping WL lines will be slight less probable than long clustered W or L patterns.
It's true that considering B=W and P=L or vice versa, BP hopping patterns are quite likely to show up, but in some way this is not a pure WL hopping line but just a clustered scenario. (Of course B/P is not a symmetrical probability model).
After all whenever a BP chopping line surpass a cutoff value, all derived roads will present univocal red spot streaks.
Technically and ignoring the very initial part of the shoe, a BP chopping pattern equal or superior than 6 will get ALL derived roads to form red streaks.

Therefore the winning or losing process moves slight more likely around W and L clusters of different lenght.

We can 'extremes' such statement by considering that W or L clusters will more likely move around sub classes of Wcl-Wcl classes and Lcl-Lcl classes, each corresponding by a precise value (1, 2, 3 and so on).

The important thing to remember is that itlr WL patterns vs WW or LL patterns are slight less likely to show up in way or another.
I mean that the probability to get, say a 8 WL or LW straight situation, will be slight less likely than to get a straight 8 W or L event.
With all the consequences to get the other 252/256 remaining patterns not belonging to the constant WL or LW or WW or LL lines.

Simplifying, if after 8 wagered hands tha probability to get WWWWWWWW or LLLLLLLL patterns will be slight superior than to face a WLWLWLWL or LWLWLWLW, so the other inferior possible patterns will be somewhat affected by a kind of 'clustering' effect.

Since we are talking about WL events and not necessarily about strict mechanical betting strategies, we may enlarge the field of operations by setting up as 'targets' some other players' destiny.

I know that this could sound as a unscientific strategy, anyway it works wonderfully in practice.

Alrelax is so true about the importance of focusing about actual results and not about 'what should be more likely to happen'.
Furthermore, most bac players like not to 'adhere' about what's happening or hoping too much that a given pattern will stand for long (that is forming long clustered patterns), most of the times when such players are losing so desperately trying to break even shortly.

In some way I'm meaning that individual player's or players' destiny are more likely to follow the above statement (so presenting valuable spots to bet at), no matter how smart and prepared we are.
And of course our personal destiny won't make any exception to that.

Examples.

Probability that a given losing player will get prompt consecutive wins is very low, if such player experienced quite long losing clusters, winning clusters counterpart move more likely about low or moderate clustered patterns at best.
In fact most part of losing players try to break even by forcing W clustered situations to happen shortly.
I'd say that in general circumstances for those losing players the probability to get an immediate four winning pattern is 1:16 but it seems to be quite lower than that.
Notice the adverb 'immediately'.

More intriguing is the probability to encounter a 'targeted' player getting many WL situations that of course cannot last for long, so more likely taking a W or L line.
Naturally even if this relatively improbable WL course seems to act, we'll bet just one hand for any couple of hands are dealt.

Then there are the so called 'lucky players' capable to guess an astounding amount of hands, a class splitted into two categories:

a- players getting the best of those univocal patterns happening (streaky shoes, predominant one-sided shoes), so wagering a lot of hands;

b- players that seem to be right at 'selected' wagered spots. Those are the more interesting to follow, especially if they bet huge amount of money.

Maybe both are getting the best of a fluke, have we reasons to try to stop those flows?

as.

Clusters, clustered patterns and clustered 'destiny'

We can arrange an A/B model into infinite ways then clusters will happen, actually they MUST happen.
And in reality clusters are the reason why we lose, as a constant 'low level' of clustering effect will be easily beatable by progressively wagering toward non clustered results.

But at the same time clusters might be the way to look for in order to win itlr. Again, if clusters would be so constant in their appearance and consistency, baccarat (and some other games) wouldn't exist at all.

Now the problem is: is it better to set up a plan about non clustered or clustered events and what's the level we should start and stop the wagering to get the most profitability (or, at worst, the least negative impact)?

First, a wide definition of 'cluster' is everything that comes out by repeating the already happened same outcome, so we do not need 5, 8 or 15 repetitive events to classify a 'cluster', thus just one back-to-back appearance of the same result or class of results belong to this definition.
Good news is that every shoe dealt in the universe will present several one-level clusters, some 2-level clusters and other relatively less likely superior situations.
For one moment say we are not interested about what should be more likely to happen, just that actual results should take a kind of clustered line at various levels.

Second, some different betting lines could collide into getting opposite clustered (CL) or non clustered (NCL) events, so a searched result could be a winning or a losing one depending upon which line we've decided to take.
Yet, if a given CL line is surely going to happen (always in relationship of its general probability to show up), we can guess that a CL-CL apparition will be slight more likely than a CL-NCL line.
Of course even a NCL line could get its share of clustering effect, again splitted into more likely levels.

Third, virtually there are infinite ways to consider events by CL or NCL situations.
Think about single/double vs 3+ streak successions, unb plan #1 or #2, bac codes and many others strategic plans not presented here.

Not talking about the common three derived roads where a CL effect tends to overcome a NCL factor.

What imo is important to understand is that people making a living at this game will try to get the least level of profitable clustering effect happening along every shoe dealt, that is 1.
Of course after having assessed that such CL effect went 'silent' (so bypassing that 1 cutoff level) for some intervals.

It's like that no matter the bet selection, a 0 level of CL factor (no clustered patterns) cannot act for long independently of how's 'more likely' some patterns should be generally prevalent over the counterpart.

Think about this: a HS player will hope that CL events will happen for long by a 'sky's the limit' feature.
Nothing wrong about that, unfortunately this is just a short term hope.
Another HS player will hope that CL events will happen more frequently by whimsical levels but by a degree different than 0, in a word hoping that certain events will be clustered by a level greater than 0 and up to 1, so they need just one positive step to be right.

Math edge and the 'rule' is to expect both players to be broke, in reality the second player will constantly make a 'unnoticed' small dent at casinos' bankroll, mostly as he/she's willing to  bet a way lesser amount of wagered hands, then by knowing precisely what to look for.
Many times getting valuable hints by simply evaluating the first players betting destiny, being invariably oriented toward a losing line more often than not.
A thing we'll see in a couple of days.

as.

Not all A/B patterns are equal

We know that without an edge of some kind we are not going anywhere; an infinite bankroll could dilute or getting no effect on the risk of ruin, anyway we're not going to win.
But since we play to win (thus we have verified a possible edge working for us) we should assess how much we want to risk, that is how long our strategy could endure the inevitable losing situations happening along the way, at the same maximizing at most our probability of winning.

Value of the positive edge assessed, there are some formulas dictating the best fractions of our bankroll to be bet, yet baccarat is a very volatile game mainly as, imo, many shoes are not properly shuffled.

We have learnt that on average baccarat is a 'biased' world performing various and heterogeneous levels of 'confidence'.

We have taken for grant that if A=B, A1>B1 and A2>B2 (and so on but the probability that A3, A4... isn't practically exploitable), meaning that superior than A levels of probability follow values not belonging to a normal distribution curve, simply put that itlr some patterns are slight more likely than others. (A thing not belonging to the mere Banker math propensity of course).

So an A or B betting model is unbeatable by definition, only A1 and A2 models could be beaten as itlr both are getting more wins than the B1 and B2 respective counterparts.

Now a question should arise: is it better to bet toward A1 vs B1 or A2 vs B2 (or both)? What about our betting amount?

It's obvious that per every shoe dealt a bias cannot constantly act at both more probable lines, one line will be more favoured to get clustered wins than the counterpart. Not mentioning that A2 line (albeit being more 'precise') needs more room to come out.
And in fact and even knowing that both lines will get a EV+ play itlr, long term data show that whenever one line will get a fair amount of winning spots, the other favourable line will present more losses than wins or at best an equal W/L ratio. (And vice versa).
The old as the hills 'clustering effect' working.

Say one shoe is:

A1, A1, A1, A3, A1, A1.

By applying the well known 1:3 ratio, wagering the A1 line will get +2 units (before vig) and wagering the A2 line will get 3 units loss.
I mean that A2 line bettors will need three subsequent wins (A2, A2, A2) to balance the previous deficit.
By betting both A1 and A2 lines we'll get a cumulative  -1 unit loss.

Now a shoe went as:

A2, A1, A2, A1, A1.

Now A1 line bettors got a -3 unit loss but A2 bettors got a +2 profit (minus vig).
Overall both lines produced a -1 unit loss (plus vig).

Of course there will be 'unlikely' shoes like this:

A1, A3, A3, A1.

A1 betting line got -4 unit loss and A2 betting line a -6 unit loss. A 'disaster' cumulative -10 unit loss.

So it's just about the general probability to face such shoes, notice that by considering a 'clustering effect' the last horrible shoe got one loss at A1 betting line and zero losses at A2 line. That is a cumulative -3 unit loss (way better than a -10 unit loss).

You can argue about those other events not belonging to A1, A2 and A3 scenarios.
Good news is that all those events are winning situations, so different than A but not sufficient to belong to A1 category. (say we name them as A-x).

Since it's very very unlikely to face a shoe producing more than two A3 situations, we know that most bac results belong to the A-x, A1 and A2 situations with some rare A3 spots happening along the way. And obviously not proportionally distributed by the A-x + A1 + A2 = A3 equation.

Actually when testing your shoes you'll be somewhat bored to look for the A3-A3 distribution that you begin to think as them as 'very unlikely scenarios'.

After all at baccarat there no other ways to look other than for more probable lines to be clustered or happening after a single opposite less likely situation happened.

as.

Al wrote The limitations are within each person playing.

This statement is very interesting to be commented, we'll see it in a couple of days.

as.

Thanks Al for your reply.
You gave me the input to expand my idea. 

First, we should ask to ourselves whether baccarat is a completely random independent succession, I mean random outcomes without any possible bias we could exploit in some manner.
If the answer is YES, we better change the game to play at.

In fact those thinking that progressive plans alone will make the best of it at a pure random succession (even if it would be a fair 1:1 proposition as a coin flip is) are just fooling themselves and giving false hopes.
The only possible exception to think that a random game would be beatable in some way is whenever long term data had shown that some selected events wagered have produced low sd values, so possibly attackable by a careful progressive multilayered scheme.
By statistical terms, it's like that instead of getting a classical normal distribution we have found a kind of Cauchy distribution.

So if the sample examined is quite large, it's 1 quadrillion percent certain that pure random successions cannot give the player any minuscule probability to get the best of it.
If anyone thinks otherwise he/she should be entitled to present his/her strategic plan to MIT. 
Notice that some progressive plans (but also flat betting strategies) could shape positive lines for 'long', but this is just a temporary 'random' coincidence as even at random events the improbable will happen.

Second, if baccarat outcomes are not so 'randomly' and 'independently' dealt (and this is the only fkng option we could rely upon in order to beat the game itlr), that is a kind of exploitable bias happens, we must choose what will be the best course of action to take.

a) Trying to adhere at most at what the 'biased' shoe is presenting, a wonderful theorical thing to look at.
After all the vast majority of bac players adopt this strategy (and filling the casinos pockets).
Unfortunately most bac players haven't measured their EV, because it's just sufficient to check few hundreds of shoes to understand that under normal circumstances this strategy is a sure loser.
In reality and whenever a player likes to bet many bets per shoe (by the fear of missing something 'good'), just a 3-4 shoe mere sample confirms the low probability to be ahead.
Of course 'progressive plans' dilute the problem not solving it.
Nevertheless we can't rule out the (distant) possibility that 'experienced players' or keen scholars have found out that a low amount of bets made on supposedly favourable situations will get them the best of it.   


b) Every bac shoe dealt is affected by a kind of bias cumulatively merging into univocal 'mechanically devised' patterns giving distribution curves progressively shifted to one direction that has nothing to share with the B>P propensity.
Those are 'limited random walks' that without any doubt and giving the lesser sh.it about B>P asymmetry will get more probable lines than what a 50.68/49.32 strict model will dictate.

In reality such 'more probable' lines (so giving an edge by a mere flat betting scheme, the only one to guarantee a long term advantage) will be whimsically distributed as we cannot know the actual 'bias' level acting at our shoe.
Anyway a possible bias must act well more likely at consecutive (0-gap) or 1-gap or 2-gap situations; anytime those cutoff values are surpassed, we are simply not interested to chase it.

c) a mix of the above two approaches.

If it's proven to be worthless a kind of 'adhering strategy', it'll be more dangerous to set up a strategy oriented to stop given lines happening at the actual shoe, even if they are strongly disappointing your long term data.
Imo the better approach stays in the middle.

For example and simplyfing the issue a lot, only an id.io.t could hope to get a P 3+ streak after a shoe presented only P singles and doubles, after a quite amount of shoes all presenting only P singles and doubles happen quite often.
At the same token, it's a kind of bighorn.sh.it strategy to hope that B side will get some B streaks after many B singles happened.

oOoOo

There's no way to beat this game by betting many bets per shoe, anyway I've collected different strategies of serious HS players wagering a lot of hands, so next week I'll try to condense such different ways of thought into an univocal line by considering a hand-by-hand process made at real live HS shoes.

as.

Thanks for this post Alrelax.

I pause at your final passage:
Unlike the ability to measure a curve to see what fraction of an area between start and midpoint and points in-between will become finite in their outcomes, the baccarat shoe cannot be measured in the same way or any other way that will allow you with finite guaranteed wins.


For most part this reasoning is correct but we know that some statistical limitations continuosly work at baccarat shoes.
The same way it's virually impossible to get 37 different numbers after a 37 spin cycle at roulette, we can safely discard from the baccarat possibilities many patterns or situations.

This thing becomes more important, imo, whether we've decided to collect into the same category different classes of results.
So 1 remains 1, 2 remains 2 but 3 could be 3, 7, 26 or a greater number, yet it should be still considered as a 3.
Naturally there's a different impact over the expected probabilities if in the actual shoe a streak of 10 or 15 had shown up as it 'consumes' quite space to get other more likely patterns to happen.

Going back to my last post, say we are driving a car capable to overcome with agility 1 and 2 steps but someway 'crashing' whenever a 3 step shows up. The aim is to run as far as possibile at the same time losing the least amount of cars.
In fact we have numerous cars to travel with, of course not knowing precisely how many 1,2 and 3 steps will present our road (shoe).

So before making such hazardous trip (or better sayed, a kind of 'infinite' series of those trips) we need to somewhat estimate   how many 1,2,3 steps any road will present on average, so influencing either the number of cars we should utilize and the average lenght of our 'safe' drives getting the least possible amount of 'crashed' cars.

Actually it would be a child's play to make assessments if itlr 1+2 steps >3 steps, unfortunately 1+2=3.

But since 3 is a three times more unlikely scenario than 1+2, we better focus about the 3 average probability distribution as people making a living about numbers rely upon the probability that something less likely won't happen for long. Of course also knowing that sooner or later unlikely scenarios will surely happen.

Now we have two different opposite options to set up our plan about:

- hoping that sooner or later a relative high unlikely scenario will happen;

- hoping that a relative low unlikely scenario (3s) remains as silent as possibile.

Both options surely follow a kind of 'clustered'/'diluted' strenght as a card distribution cannot be symmetrically placed by any means.

First let's examine the 'low unlikely scenario', that is 3s happening on average about any shoe dealt.
At 8-deck shoes the average probability 3s will show up is around 9.5 per shoe.
If we'd assume that any shoe dealt will produce an average number of 28-30 columns, we'll see that the 1:3 general percentage is respected. More importantly, relative sd values will be way more restricted than at a pure independent symmetrical game.

I mean that under certain conditions, along any shoe dealt the probabiilty to get a more probable class of events is very very close to 1. That is the almost absolute certainty that a given event will happen.
After all and assuming 28-30 columns, a 0.25 probability cannot happen clustered for long and consecutively and at the same time not giving the proper room to get 0.75 probability events to show up clustered at some level (or, in the most very unfortunate scenario, to show up at least once after a 'fresh' new 3 had come out).

'Relatively high unlikely scenario' wonderfully perform at some side bets plays.

Say you want to play at the Dragon Bonus bet where a given gap of winning points matters (being payed 1:1, 2:1, 4:1, 6:1, 8:1, 10:1 and 30:1).
Of course only an id.iot would bet the Banker side Dragon Bonus (sadly too many players like to bet this side), thus only Player side DB should be wagered.
Classifiy Player winning results under the 1-2-3 gap point classes vs superior gap points (those getting a DB win), ignoring naturals (half of them will be winners anyway).
After a given series of 'isolated' DB Player results, progressively bet toward getting 'clustered' DB events, providing you think that for some reasons Player side will be more entitled to win.
It's not a coincidence that at HS rooms such side bet isn't offered at all.

Tiger bet

No commission tables where B winning hands by a 6 point are payed 1:2 are faster to be dealt and the HE raises from 1.06/1.24% to 1.46%/1.24%. (So the less worse bet at those tables is wagering P).
Notice that as long as B won't show an initial 6 point, betting Banker will get the player an enormous math advantage.
Of course a relatively small portion of hands not belonging to an initial two-card B 6 point and getting B side to win by a final 6 point will lower such possible advantage.

Anyway, at a 8-deck shoe on average Tiger bet will show up nearly 5 times. Two card B winning 6 points are payed 12:1 and three card B winning 6 points are payed 20:1.
This bet is so relatively probable that we could even make a kind of 'sky's the limit' side approach.
Anytime a Tiger bet shows up, we could just bet three times to get the same Tiger bet to appear again by adopting a progressive plan.
I know it's a unsound math move, but I'll invite you to test your shoes and see what happens.

as.