My comments.

As long as US keep getting this very high infection rate, nobody residing outside US will want to jump in Vegas or in US. (An exception are those degenerate poker players not knowing what are the real effects of a covid-19 infection)
USA is still the most Covid-19 infected country along with Brasil, India and Mexico (right now).
Not mentioning that aircrafts, especially long haul flights, are among the best places to be infected.

Checking the temperature is a total bighornsh.it. Anybody, infected or not, before entering a premise or an airport would like to be heavily loaded by Tylenol or ibuprofen or aspirin assumption.
Moreover many Covid-19 infection cases went without any fever and, sigh, without getting a positive test.

Buffets, imo, could be reopened as long as single portions of food would be available and where no customer can touch other than a single personal spoon.
And of course where a proper social distancing comes in order.

Parking fees: it's a total another bighornshit to make people pay the parking when entering a casino.
Did we need to get covid-19 to accomplish this?

Smoking.

It's a third rattlesnakeshit to allow people to smoke inside a casino, unless a very strong air ventilation is used. A wasted opportunity to stop the fkng smoking into a casino.

Imo and in the opinion of many, Vegas casinos will make a safe environment if:

- every person entering the premise must wear a face mask (not allowed a FFP2/FFP3 mask with a valve)

- many gel sanitizers are at disposal, forcing people to clean hands before any table/slot join or before/after any toilet enter/exit and buffet/restaurant enter/exit.
Covid-19 is very susceptible to any alcoholic/bleach solution.   

- a proper air ventilation is in order (many high end casinos offer a kind of clean air long since)

- no smoking is allowed. Smoke endorses the probability to get virus particles trapped in the air, thus increasing the probability to catch the unwanted fkng covid by simple breathing despite of the use of surgical masks.

- any person will constantly keep a "social distance" of at least 4-5 feet from another one.

Unfortunately long haul flights cannot guarantee a safe environment by any means.
An aircraft is the prototype of an indoor same breathing air enviroment, even if seats are distanced.
Probably only FFP2/FFP3 face masks and gloves wearing and a deep disinfection after any flight is the solution to lower the risk. It's like entering a covid-19 ICU, no more no less.

as.     

To get the idea that at baccarat things are constantly moving around clumps of key cards each time removed from the deck and then affecting or not the next results, let's shuffle an 8-deck shoe then taking out randomly, say 40 consecutive cards, and see what are the real outcomes coming out infinitely from this 40 cards sample.

Since our sample is randomly/randomly taken and on average we'll get about 7 hands (in form of B, P and T hands) we shouldn't expect to get other than a random pattern (ties ignored for simplicity) belonging to one of the possible 128 distributions. Of course patterns containing more B decisions will overcome the same P counterpart, as sooner or later this finite card distribution will produce some asym hands at various degrees. And we all know the overall general probability to get an asym hand is 8.6%. 

Since it's impossible to know which side will be more favored to win unless cards will form one or more asymmetrical hands, we could think to operate about the unlikelihood that long symmetrical patterns will happen along the way by the simplest form of symmetrical card distribution tools acting (or not) at various degrees.

Considering my above example, any 8-deck shoe is formed by at least nine 40-cards situations, each belonging to a given real asym/sym ratio and/or real sym/sym ratio, all producing each 7 different patterns.
In some sense there's no one single possibility in the world that homogeneous quality outcomes are going to produce the same quality back to back ratios occurred within consecutive portions of the deck.

More on that later.

as.

Yeah, I remember that! 
You had perfectly spotted the situation way before what actually really happened.

as.

Exactly Alba!

"Secure a profit"

If we think to get an edge at a given game and conditions are favourable, we should stay and play regardless of the actual economical situation.
As Albalaha sayed, it's only the long run which counts and itlr everything will come out, thus to secure a profit means "I know I'll surely lose, better to get the illusion to be ahead of something now".
Instead a proper formulation should be: favourable conditions are met, the more I play the more I'll win. Period.

"Quit when you are ahead"

Same bigornsh.it as above.
Our play cannot be splitted into sessions, it's just an infinite series of bets where the cumulative number of times we are ahead (by a W/L ratio) is equal to the cumulative number of times we are behind, all aggravated by the fact that bets are unfair payed in a way or another.
In some sense and oppositely thinking, the specular statement should be "do not quit when behind", a statement particularly liked by casinos.

"Stop win" and "Stop loss"

It depends about what we are considering.
Each class of Ws and Ls follow a general probability and an actual probability. For example I've presented random walks having a general probability to produce all wins for the entire lenght of the shoe, hence lowering the value of a stop win strategy.
On the other hand, some shoes will form many back to back losses that make a future winning streak less probable (mainly for a lack of space).

The actual probability, imo, should be considered either by a simple pattern point of view and, more importantly, by certain quality factors prompting the hands formation.

In no way we could think to hope for a preordered amount of W units either per each shoe or per a series of shoes as we do not know how things will develop and the same is true about Ls situations.

Knowing that the actual shoe has a probability different from zero to produce all winnings represents a good start.
Conversely, cards distributions forming unlikely "losing" situations at the start (albeit due for obvious reasons regarding variance) are not going to produce specular winning counterparts.
It's like stating that key cards clumped toward one side at the beginning are symmetrically clumped toward the opposite side thereafter.

Of course people making a living at numbers like to wager toward the unlikelihood that something won't happen, thus betting toward slight or intermediate more likely situations.
And more often than not the initial-mid sections of the actual shoe are offering us good hints.

as.

Hope you'll be back very soon. 

as.

 

Tomorrow I'll discuss nonsense topics as "quit when you are ahead", "secure a profit", and the more intriguing "stop win or stop loss", all "human factors" that cannot alter in our favor the natural flow of the game.

as. 

You are welcome! :-)

Obviously the level of asymmetricity (generally intended) of each shoe dealt is strictly related to the actual card distribution. Same shoes dealt and shuffled poorly tend to mantain the same level of asymmetricity but very often detected by different patterns' shapes. That's why we need several r.w.'s operating for us.

Since 1-2, 1-3 and B2/B1-B3 and P2/P1-P3 cover all the most frequent possibilities at various degrees, we might get a more precise idea about how "asymmetrically" cards are distributed along the actual shoe. Or, better sayed, which spots are more likely to be asymmetrically distributed.

Any 2-hand attack features a theorical winning probability of 0.75 on symmetrical hands and various different probabilities when one of two asymmetrical hands come along.
For example, if our plan dictates to wager P side two times and two asym hands come out, the P winning probability is restricted to about 0.6645.
In the same example, just one asym hand coming out on our two P betting attempts shifts the P winning probability to about 0.71.

Naturally asym hands don't come out around the corner, therefore many "more likely Banker outcomes" should be assessed by the actual quality/quantity pattern distribution. We do not want to bet a side being unnecessarily payed 0.95:1, especially when the actual distribution seems to privilege the symmetrical hands formation.

as. 

Hi Rickk.

Numbers register how many P2 doubles come out after an initial P2 "trigger": if P2 is limited by an immediate P1 or P3 the number registered will be 1.
If a couple of P2 patterns come around consecutively, we'll write 2. If three P2 patterns show up we'll write 3 and so on.

Example.

BPPBBBPBPPBBPPBBBBBPBPBBPPBPPBBPPBPPBPPPBPPBBBPPPPB according to the P2/P1-P3 r.w is:

1-2-4-2

In the same sequence the B2/B1-B3 r.w. is read as:

1-1-1


as.








 

In the last shoe notice how would fare a cumulative strategy applied simultaneously to every 6 possible "highest state" number pattern:

1. - -  + + + +

2. - + + + + -

3. + + + - + -

4. + + + + + -

5. - + + + + -

6. + + + - + -

7. + + - + + +

8. + + - + - +

9. + - + + - +

10. + - + + + +

11. + - + + + +

12. + - + + - +

13. + + - - + +

14. - + + + + -

15. + - + + - +

16. + + - - + +

17. + + - + - +

18. + + + - + -

19. + + + + - -

20. + + - + - +

21. + + + - +

22. - - + + + +

23. + - - + - +

24. + + + + - -

25. - - + + + -

26. + + + + - -

27. + - + + - -

28. + + + + - -

29. - + + + + -

30. + + + - + -

31. - - + + + +

32. + + - + + +

33. + + + - - -

34. - - + + + +

35. + + - + + +

36. + + + - - -

37. + + - - + +

38. - + - + + -

39. - + + + + +

40. - - - + + +

Another live shoe taken from the now defunct Lucky Dragon casino:

1-2-1-3-2-1-2-1-2-1-3-2-2-2-2-2-1-1-3-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-2-3-2-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-2-2-3-1-1-2-3

123) -,-,+,+,-,+,+,+,+,+,+,+,+,-,+,+,+,+,+,+,+,-,+,+,-,+,+,+,-,+,-,+,+,-,+,+,+,-,-,-,+,+,+

132) -,+,+,+,+,+,+,+,-,-,-,-,+,+,-,+,+,+,+,+,+,-,+,+,-,+,-,+,+,+,-,+,+,-,+,+,+,+,+,-,+,+,+

213) +,+,+,+,+,+,-,-,+,+,+,+,-,+,+,-,-,+,+,-,+,+,-,+,+,+,+,+,+,+,+,-,+,+,-,+,-,+,-,+,-,+,+

231) +,+,-,+,+,-,+,+,+,+,+,+,-,+,+,-,+,-,+,+,-,+,+,-,+,+,+,+,+,-,+,+,-,+,+,-,-,+,+,+,+,+,+

312) +,+,+,+,+,+,+,-,-,+,+,-,+,+,-,+,-,+,-,-,+,+,-,+,+,-,-,-,+,+,+,-,+,+,-,+,+,+,+,+,-,-,-

321) +,-,-,-,-,-,+,+,+,+,+,+,+,-,+,+,+,-,-,+,-,+,+,-,+,+,+,-,-,-,+,+,-,+,+,-,+,-,+,+,+,+,-

A couple of examples taken randomly.

Original shoe results: 2-1-2-1-2-2-1-1-2-1-3-2-1-3-3-1-3-1-3-1-1-1-1-1-1-2-2-3-1-2-2-2-1-1-1


123) +,+,+,-,-,+,-,+,+,-,+,+,-,-,+,+,+,+,+,+,+,-,-,+,+,+,+,+,-,+,-,+

132) +,+,+,-,-,+,-,+,+,-,+,+,-,+,-,-,+,+,+,+,+,-,+,+,-,-,+,+,+,+,+,-,+,-,+

213) -,-,+,+,+,+,+,-,+,+,+,+,+,+,-,+,+,+,+,-,+,+,-,+,+,+,+,+,-,+,-,+,+,+,-

231) -,+,+,+,+,+,+,+,+,+,-,+,+,-,+,+,-,+,+,-,-,+,+,-,+,+,-,+,+,+,+,+,+,+,+,-,+,+

312) +,-,-,+,+,-,+,-,-,+,+,-,+,+,+,+,+,+,-,-,+,+,-,+,+,+,-,-,-,-,+,+,+,+,-

321) +,+,+,+,-,+,+,+,+,+,+,+,+,+,+,+,+,-,-,+,-,+,+,-,+,-,+,-,+,+,+,-,-,+,+

Second shoe: 1-1-1-3-1-2-3-3-2-1-1-2-1-3-2-3-3-1-2-1-1-3-1-3-1-3-1-1-2-3-3-1-1-1-3-1-2-1

123) -,+,+,+,+,+,+,+,+,-,+,+,+,+,+,+,+,+,+,+,+,+,+,-,-,+,+,-,-,-,+,+,+,-,+,+,+,+

132) -,+,+,+,+,-,+,-,-,+,+,-,-,-,-,+,-,+,+,+,+,+,+,+,-,-,+,-,+,++,+,+,-,-,+,+,+

213) +,-,+,+,-,+,+,+,+,+,-,+,+,+,+,+,+,+,-,-,+,+,-,-,+,+,+,+,+,-,+,-,+,+,+,+,-,-

231) +,+,-,+,+,+,+,-,+,+,+,+,+,-,+,+,-,-,-,+,-,+,-,-,-,+,+,+,+,+,+,+,-,-,+,+,+,+,+,-

312) +,-,+,-,-,-,-,+,-,+,-,-,+,+,-,+,+,+,+,-,+,-,-,+,+,+,+,+,+,+,-,-,+,+,+,+,+,-

321) +,+,-,-,+,+,-,+,+,+,+,+,+,+,+,-,+,-,+,+,-,-,+,+,+,+,-,+,-,+,-,+,-,+,+,-,+,+

Even though original shoes were presented by the stupi.dest way of registration (big road) and that many - signs are getting us a -3 unit loss and nearly half of + signs are getting us an inferior +1 payment, some +/- situations are more "due" than others.

Notice that unb plan #1 worked wonderfully on first shoe but quite tremendously bad on the second one.
First shoe presented 21 states change and second shoe 27 states change.

1-step level unb plan #2 results got respectively a LWWW and WW events.

as.

Let's consider our old three different states where every pattern in the universe will belong to.

Generally speaking, the less will be the number of states occurring at a given shoe, better will be the probability to get long winning streaks as a single state or, more likely, a couple of states may be present for long without the "intrusive" effect of the unwelcome third one.

On the other end, we've seen that another strategy relies just upon the opposite thought, that is that certain spots must change their shape in a way or another.

Let's start to examine the theorically "perfect" situations capable to get the highest number of states change happening along any shoe.

When three different states are involved, only six possibilities getting ALL change states come around :

An "endless" succession of 1-2-3-1-2-3-1-2-3.... or 1-3-2-1-3-2-1-3-2... or 2-1-3-2-1-3-2-1-3... or
2-3-1-2-3-1-2-3-1... or 3-1-2-3-1-2-3-1-2... or 3-2-1-3-2-1-3-2-1....

Everything in between gets at least one "winning" situation, that is the third state must be silent for more than the 3-step steady pace featured on the above six patterns.

Notice that all six patterns came out by a 1/3 singles/streaks ratio instead of the more natural 1/1 ratio, meaning that those patterns are "biased" at the start.
Yet we are not interested about the numbers but about the pace.

In a sense we're trying to put in relationship those 6 different "biased" (hence asymmetrical) patterns with the actual natural asymmetrical production, not assigning a precise value to any side or value (as in no way itlr B1=P1, B2=P2 and B3=P3, not mentioning that in the overwhelming majority of times the "3" category inglobes very different patterns).

Even though many "natural" big road or derived roads registrations may offer some profitable opportunities, we need to set up more intricated random walks applied to the actual results' production.

as.   

Examples taken from Wynn and Gold Coast live shoes data.

1-2 and 1-3 plans joined with B2/B1-B3 attacks made on the entire shoe regardless of asym/sym quality assessment.

+ + - - - + + + + + + + - + + + - + + - + + - - + + + + + + + -

B2/B1-B3:  - - - + - -

+ + + + + + + - + - + + + - -  + + -

B2/B1-B3: + - + +

+ + + - + - + - + + + + + - + - + + + + - + + - + + - + -

B2/B1-B3: + - + + + +

- + + - + - - - + + + + + + + + + - + + - + + + + + -

B2/B1-B3: - + - + + +

- + + + + + + + + + + - - + - + + + + + + - - + + + - + - *

B2/B1-B3: - - + + +

+ + - + + + - + - + + + + + + + - + + + + + - + + + + + -

B2/B1-B3: + + +

+ + + - + + + + - + + + + + + + + + - - + - - + + + + + + + +

B2/B1-B3: + + - - - + + - +

+ + + + + + + - + + - + + + + + + + + + + + + + + - + + - + + + + + - + + -

B2/B1-B3: - + - + +

Not surprisingly in the first shoe presented most asym hands went "wrong" for B side despite of the math advantage.

as.

The decisive tool to test any B/P system is by considering the limiting values of relative frequency of EVERY possible shoe's pattern, thus covering how it fares through every possible card distribution.

The ploy to restrict the outcomes into three classes will help us a lot for two reasons.

First, baccarat features the very slight propensity to produce the opposite result already happened;

Secondly,  after the 3 level is reached we may consider all 3+ superior classes the same as 3s.

Since it may appear so easy to simply bet toward shorter patterns as singles and doubles, we should focus our interest about those 3s distribution.

3s and 3+s are by definition asymmetrical situations even if a given 3+ is composed by a BBBBBB sequence or PPPP pattern as they get or not a given probability of taking advantage (B side) or shifting (P side) the asym force determined by the rules.

Of course pure 3s (streaks of just three B/P hands) are more likely to be the product of sym situations as the overall asym probability is confined to 8.6% over the total hands dealt. The longer any streak is forming higher will be the probability to cross an asym situation as virtually (and practically) no shoe is producing all symmetrical events.
And we know that not all asym hands will form a B decision, of course.

It could easily happen that asym hands may come out within shorter BP patterns, for example after a single B result or after a single P hand or after a couple of the same situations.
Thus, for example, betting itlr toward P singles and P doubles just mean to hope that the asym force will happen right on those spots as the mere symmetrical force cannot be of any help other than for short term variance issues.

Itlr, our profit can only and only come out just when the sum of our Player bets were placed on sym hands payed 1:1 and when our Banker bets were getting a quite higher than 8.6/91.4 ratio.
Naturally those P bets must involve more than a strenght of sym value, mostly in form of more likely card distribution, whereas B bets generally rely upon a selected endorsed math probability.


Back to the "everything is possible" shoe production.
We could think the bac shoe situation as a continuous 1-2-3 succession, knowing that homogeneous 1 or 2 or 3 situations aren't going to happen. But two situations out of three are more likely to happen along the entire lenght of the shoe and we know we had to discard 2-3 situations unless happening at B side (with the additional help of B2/B1 apparition).
We are so sure about that that a multilayered progression made on B doubles consecutiveness will cross very soon a certain "jackpot" situation, the same but at a lower degree when considering two or more consecutive wins when applied to the 1/2 and 1/3 method.

as.

I completely agree on that.

as.