The basic value for eu. wheel numbers,

5, 6, 1, 4, 3, 2,7, 8, 7, 6, 9, 4,9, 2, 3, 8, 5, 1,
5,6, 7, 6, 1, 2,5, 4, 9, 4, 9, 2,7, 1, 3, 8,3, 8...

I bet someone smirking...reading this

Gentlemen,
Evry method , or strategy has a shortcoming,
Thus we should analyze,  what that SHORTCOMING IS!?
And act accordingly, to avoid them and to accept them when it occur uncontrollably? !

Let say,
FOLLOW THE LAST IN BACCARAT.
What and how to avoid and the progression to overide them?

Simply stated, baccarat knowns to STREAKY, AND CHOPPY...
This going back to the basic debate...anyone?

Cambridge English Dictionary

coincidence definition:
1. an occasion when two or more similar things happen at the same time,
especially in a way that is unlikely and surprising:
2. chance or luck:
3. an occasion when two or more things ...

Hi,
Say, every morning , when you walk toward your workplace,
you cross path with the sweet young girl....,

that's not coincidence,
because you deliberately timed your walking pace to
coincide to cross path with her...

Say, one day,
while at a traffic light, you see a Honda stoping at the red light,
followed by a Toyata, then a VW, and a Chevy. ..

Then, the next day, at around the same time, at the same red,
traffic light, you noticed, a Honda, Toyota, VW, and a Chevy...
Wow!
What a coincidence!

Will the next day, at the same time and traffic light,
the same sequence of Honda,Toyota, VW, Chevy....happen again?

Or, after a few day passed, at that traffic light, you see a Honda,
then a Toyota happen to stop behind it...
then...will the next car be a VW...
then followed by a ...Chevy?

Now, all the mathboys and experts shrieking. .
."The probability still the same, no matter what!"

Of course the probability, remain the same...

But the question, is, will the COINCIDENCE ,
meet with the same COINCIDENCE ..again?

It same like coincidentally, wise,
will "red" hit 100 time in the next 100 spins..?
(.the probability is 50/50 minus green , shriek the mathboys...)

the REDS hit 10in row, then 10in row again,
that 20red, is coincidence, but for coincidence of "10-in-row",
to hit ten of 10in row, is just impossible!

or will the green zero, hit 10 in row?
(the probability 1/37, again, shriek the mathboys)
zero hit twice, is coincidence, hit 3, is coincidence of coincidence,
4 is rare, but 10in row?

Mathboys. .. say.."yes!"
But in coincidence theory,
it may not hit in your life time, because it highly unlikely...

likewise,


in next 12spin, DS, you see six different ds hit, then another six different ds hit,
will next 6spins produce six different ds....again?!
(again, the mathboys shrieking, its 1/6 minus zero!!!!)
BUT THE COINCIDENCE HIGHLY UNLIKELY! or never in your lifetime...

or if you see dozen..123, then 123again, then....will next be 123...again?

if we wanna win, after all the lung collapsing debating with the mathboys...
we should think in term of coincidence vs coincidence term..

.this is where the "probability of coincidence", a different perspective setting.

As we already know,
Apart from zero green,
There will...

Three different dz in 3spins
Only 2dz in 3spins,
3same dz in 3spins,
And 3zero in 3spins...

3different dz in 3spin=33% minus green, and 66% for other formations.


Single vs Series.
3different dz in 3spins, will repeat once, twice, thrice to infinite, but the most seen , rarely, up to six repeat.


Thus..
×××,
123,
×××.... (a single , of 3different dz in 3spins)
123,
321...twice...(a series of 2)
Xxx.

321,
123
231,..series 3.

321,
123,
213,
231....series 4, and so on to infinite...

Thus the simplest is SINGLE VERSUS SERIES (regardless of how many repeat)

The probability of single/series=66/33% minus green.

The probability of series of 2,  become series3=33% minus green.

"only 1dz or only 2dz/3spin ", also can single and series.

123,
121,...a single.
231...

231,
121,
323...series of two....
321....

123,
323,
311,
212,...series of 3,
132...

The probabilty of "non 3dz/3spins   "...single=33%    , series= 66%....minus green.

So how to bet?
When you see 3dz/3spins, you may bet...

123  that 3dz/3spins matrix.


Bet next matrix, may 3dz/3spins, or "non 3dz/3spins"

One of the advantage, they are stable, meaning they highly LIKELY, to hit
Within Math Expectation.

@stringbeanpc,
Thanks for your posting..
111   211   311
112   212   312
113   213   313

121   221   321
122   222   322
123   223   323

131   231   331
132   232   332
133   233   333

Three Same Dozens 3 out of 27
111
222
333

Three different dozens 6 out of 27

123   213   312
132   231   321

Two dozens 18 out of 27
&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&

As we know, its always 33% vs66% minus green probability.

But as the only2dz in matrix aka pinwheel,
If we forego the 111, 222, 333 matrix,
And only bet the formation of matrix consist of "only 2dz in 3spins"
Then the probability is 24probability,

Then 18/24=75%
Why 24, as we left out the 111, 222, 333.

6/24=25%...?

doesn't this sort of distorted edge, since we not bet the 111, 222, 333,
Instead of 66/33%....if we bet from the begining of 3spins, but 75% for 2dz/3spins???

Gentlemen,
Since the first casino open stall, thousands of systems that people devised can't beat the casino, and the math prof.  shrieking their lung out since, that we can't have edge, or win and beatthe casino's holy grail, that namely roulette, they say we can't even win, if the wheel have no green!

Maybe we should leave the betselection and move to other plane, that avoiding extreme variance in the progression itself.

We know that, when extreme in bet selection, hit, the winning hit keep sleeping and our progression keep snowballing till we bust our br,
thus if we wait for the extreme in selection, and virtual bet the progression, till the selection stabilized,  then we bet the progression halfway, we already "save",  a bundle of our br, and proceed to win.

This way , we already avoid the edge, and avoid the debacle of busting our br.

In oversimplified example,
Labby win when 33%+1,
When we bet from the start virtually with 1u, as the 1st bet, we wait for extreme variance, and when it seem to stabilized,  we bet the labby halfway, thus the winning is more than 1u, and if losing extreme keep coming, the cut losses, is not vis a vis, and out of context , or out of sync mathematically. ?...
What your opinion?

Without 0(yes even if there is no house edge), just consider only R and B as an example. There are 512 combinations of 9 spin sets possible. Out of this 512 combinations, 406 combinations will give you a win and the rest will give you a loss. Sure a high win ratio inching towards 80%. But, the risk of losses will outweigh the impact of wins. See the following possibilities out of 512 combinations.

W – 256 times
L – 48 times
LW – 104 times
LL – 32 times
LLW – 36 times
LLL – 16 times
LLLW – 10 times
LLLL – 10 times
(Quote from Priyanka's)

============
If we bet vdw with martingale, assumed that it will happen as Nickmsi said it must (?).



W – 256 times(win256u)
L – 48 times
LW – 104 times(win 104u)
LL – 32 times
LLW – 36 times(win36u)
LLL – 16 times
LLLW – 10 times((win10u)
LLLL – 10 times(LOSE 1248=15×10=-150UNITS!)

========================
OR we bet marty, after a first virtual lose...




W – 256 times(no bet)
L – 48 times(no bet)
LW – 104 times....win 104u
LL – 32 times
LLW – 36 times...win36u
LLL – 16 times
LLLW – 10 times...win 10u
LLLL – 10 times....Lose 124=7×10=-70units.

Xxxxxxxxxxx
Or after 2 losses.




W – 256 times
L – 48 times
LW – 104 times
LL – 32 times  no bet
LLW – 36 times...win 36u
LLL – 16 times
LLLW – 10 times...win 10u
LLLL – 10 times....lose 12=3×10=-30unit.

The above are correct IF ALL 512X9 HIT AS IT SOULD AS CLAIMED!
WITHOUT HE ZERO, OR COMMISSION THROWN IN....

When it too hot and sore throat developed, simply breathing through your mouth till the sore subside.
Sore throat,  caused by swelling membrane around the throat when the body heat increases,
Thus breathing through your mouth release the trapped heat..and..drink lots of water too.

With respect to all erudite members here,

(The others, please don't post nonsense here)

As we know, till today , there's no selection that can produce positive edge except constant good luck.

And all systems lose because they can't win when bad permutations hit, and no progression can withstand the assault.

Thus we must have a bet selection that very stable, in the mathwise, always produce result that hit within math expectation.

Some of us stressed that STABLE BET SELECTION ....impossible

But then, some say, progression that win absolutely. .also impossible...except martingale with no table limit and infinity br.

If stable and absolute progression are impossible,

then Variance Avoidance,  and Losing Streak avoidance, are the options left.

If both deemed impossible,  then pattern , highly unlikely, back to back occurrence,
Say after 6ds in 6spins, then 6ds in next 6spins , highly unlikely...

Or after 10black, then 10red to hit in next 10spin also highly unlikely...

It just impossible to bet 1000spins, in bm casino ,just to have a stable within math expectation hit.

Even 300spins will take a  whole day , (break for meals and washroom.?)

We need a *stable result*, strategy or method, in says, below or around 300spins,
By waiting for the deadly permutation to pass, deadly permutation is part of randomness,
even fighting random with random, will hit deadly sequences...

Thus how to avoid the deadly permutation sequence?
By waiting and watching for them to appear.... (hahahaww!)
(Seriously, that the only way....for we can't predict future)

and "avoid long losing streaks "
after we start betting after the " variance avoidance strategy", how?
Just stop betting..
(Seriously,  that the only way)


And taking losses with stride,
We simply take losses and sigh,
What else can we think out ?

Follow the last, in EC,
I think is the simplest no brainer to bet.

It is better  bet, than beting a fixed color (or in baccarat, bet only , say, player only.)
Or any  method....

Simply because we can read the outcome,  how?

wait for long chopping,  brbrbrbrbr....

that cause long streaks of losing, and simply, 

but most importantly,

The advantage, of  hitting long streaks of  black and red.

They won't produce positive edge,

but at least, itlr,
It  stable,

we could outwait losing streaks of chops,
(again, simply by waiting for it to happen)
and also stop betting, when losing certain spins of bet.

Then bet with mild progression. 

Any thought?

Hi Sputnik aka Ego,
We all know you a respected expert in the SERIES/SINGLE  systems.

There a million dollar question, regarding the betting EC, as series/single bet,
as you see, they always tend to RTM, after long ecart,
But that long ecart is the real problem, when progression, even with very mild , and variance avoidance strategy,
tend to snowball to unmanageable level.

Do you have any idea how to manipulate , or filter them, so in short term, or very short term,( say 30 to 50 bet risked,   or taken),
the result very near to 50/50 win/lose ratio.


If we can have a strategy that always near 50/50, then we could outwait the short variance, after virtual win, and bet the rest with mild progression.


(With due respect, those without knowledge of series/single, may read previous thread of them, and refrain talking  rubbish here.)

Since variance kills the br,
Thus we need a betselection, to beat random,
to produce an end result THAT HIT WITHIN MATH EXPECTATION!

If we choose to bet, say, only RED, for 100spins,
the worst would be 100BLACKS in row, with zero in between...
(well, the mathboys said that possible, then we don't argue with them, lest...)
And the best will 100 RED in row, (well...)

100reds, and 100blacks in row, are two possible PERMUTATION, out of millions of possible permutations,
And many permutation, if flatbet , will cause huge losses, losses, and little losses, if we flatbet all 100spin, red only...

Thus if 100blacks appeared, then we lose 100units , flatbet,
And if 100reds appeared, then plus100 units profit....
But we never know what permutation, will appeared, in next 100spins.
We need a betselection , that will always hit within math expectation, in every next100spins!

Math expectation=36/37 eu wheel...edge=negative1/37...
(See? The mathboys nodding their heads, can't shriek their lung out...)
Thus expect 3, 4, 5, 6 or more units loss, in every 100spins, flatbet...
(Mathboys nodding again...)


The trillion dollars question,
If we could found a bet selection, that always hit only a few units losses, in every 100spins,
and compounded them with mild progression, virtual losses,  variance avoidance, and simple stoplosss....
Boy oh boy...!!!

After reading thousands of threads debating why we lose...I THINK...
we lose because our methods , strategies, systems, voodoo,  guts, bla, bla, blah...
can't win over certain permutations...
There always one, two, three, or certain percentage of permutations,  that kill our br.

Lest the newbie can't understand. !,,
Here few easy example..

Say , we want to bet martingale for 10bets, in baccarat,  in no commission type...super6.
The  permutations will kill you.

1) Six, that pays half, ruin your br
2) 10 losing streaks....kills you.

In roulette, 10steps martingale.
only 10 losses in row kills,
But with pesky green zero thrown in, there will many permutations that kills

Say , you bet RED, MARTHY...
THE outcomes. ?.
1) 10BLACKS IN ROW.
2) 9BLACKS WITH A GREEN..
3) 8BLACKS WITH 2 GREEN.
4) 7 BLACK S WITH 3 GREEN...(an so on...till 10greens in row..oops! Not me, the mathboys say it possible mathwise!)

And in Labby,
Any rows with less than 33%, will soon take away your upperwear, and underwear....


And.." follow the last", lose when chopping goes on....

Follow second last, lose when the losing permutation hit...

Betting single dozen , flatbet, lose when less than 33% permutations hit
Double dozens, lose, when less than 66% hit...

Thus with whatever method, you devised, there will be certain permutation s that cause losses.

So how to win .?!?!

Seriously,
No progression can win, even with whatever virtual bet, delayed bet, avoidance of all sorts variance, IF, your bet selection, is not stable!
Face the hard painful truth, the hurtful reality, casino has the last laugh because, every method will hit horrible variance, and the gambler lose their upperwear and underwear, sooner or later...


The truth is, we must HAVE, a very stable selection, in medium spins, 300+- spins,

1)the end result will hit around mathematics expectations
Or,
2) in 300+- spins, the horrible variance alternate with winning streaks...


Impossible! ?
Naive!?

Daydreamer?!
Then forget gambling,
Go do honest job, don't ruin your life!

For me, personally,
If I bet EC, at the end, the result lose around 3% after 300spins of bet risked,
We can see variance, streaks, and clustering of variance and streaks.


You test your selection, by bet flat 1u, after a certain amount, preferably 370spins, 37x10cycles,
If in the end,
losses always -3%, then u can assured it a stable selection,
But, if it win huge, then lose huge in next session, then it unstable.

.in stable selection, we outwait the horrible variance, and risked the horrible won't hit back to back.

Members and guests here, had read thousands of post here, many will noticed that,
if someone says...ber EC....

1) bet the single color to streaks..
Others will say the other side may sleep for 30spins..

2) bet the chops
Others will say the other side may previal...

3) follow the last..
Others will say, the chops may prolong...

4)Then follow 2nd last..
Others will say, the long killer sequence may show up...

5) bet strictly, only a color..
Others will say , horrible ecart may hit ...

6) bet the leader..
They say, leader suddenly become follower..


What method, that could win,
When ...

streaks hit, (bbbbbbbbbb ... )
chops hit,(brbrbrbrbr....)
Imbalance ecart hit...

I think, follow 2nd last, is the answer.
Because,  only a specific sequence can kill ft2nd last.


bbrrbbrrbbrrbbrrbb
brrbbrrbbrrbbrrbbr

and short sequence in clusters...

bbrr, r,bbrrb, b,brrbbrrbb

After many hours of hard thinking,
I think we need a bet-selection , which
ALWAYS PRODUCE HIT WITHIN MATH EXPECTATION.

In roulette the HE of 2.8, or roughly 3%,  then
if your selection is STABLE, then in next 100spins risked bet,
you lose 3units flatbet....as end result...

100spins risked is too short, 300spins risked, is more STABLE.
THUS, if flatbet, only lose around +-10units.

If you can't understand,
then in OVER-SIMPLIFIED EXAMPLE.

in a bag, there 48red, 48black & 4green marbles.
to simulate HE of 4%.
Take out a marble as a bet, and cast aside,

Thus , no matter how many seasons, at last spin, the math is lose-4units.

So play a billion seasons,
you will see billion of permutations, with whatever possible random, extreme variances,
streaking, chopping, but the result, at the end, alway lose 4u, never win.

So its up to us to bet a STABLE SELECTION, by waiting and watch the random, extreme variances,
streaking to happened first, before you starting bet faithfully.

Now, the real trillion dollar question...is..
Do you have..
STABLE BET SELECTION!!!???

We can't  beat random.
We can't catch streaks.
We can't predict when a streak will start or stop.

We can't, but we can know when the random show itself up,
And we can KNOW WHEN the streaks run...
HOW?
EASY!
the answer, ...(drumroll)
(hold your breath, the answer, worth your lifetime bank saving.)






JUST WAIT AND WATCHING THEM RUN..
(.HA! HA! HA!HAWW! HAWWWWW!....)

Oop! Sorry for LOL!
Yeah, the answer is ,
Just wait and watch them RUN!
Yes, SERIOUSLY, that the answer...

If you understand, you will now jump up and hit the ceiling,  and can't sleep tonight,
for you found what you seek in you whole internet forum life...

Hi, I am keen to know whether this dozen strategy is a stable or unsteady selection.
If this a stable selection, we could easily win a few unit before 300spins.

Anyone could help, by testing flatbet a few thousand spins, and just post the charts here, as many chart possible.
Thanks in advance.

Dz1=dozen one, and so on...
Double dozen bet.


If last spin= dz1, then bet dz1 and dz2. (Win or lose, then...)
If next spin=dz2, then bet dz2 and dz3 (win or lose, then..)
If next spin=dz3, then bet dz3 and dz1 (win or lose...)
If next spin=zero, take loss, then bet the previous indicator dozen.
Xxxxxxxxxxx

eg.
1st= dz1, (  bet dz1 and dz2)
2nd=dz3, (  bet dz3 and dz1)
3rd= dz2, (bet dz2 and dz3)
4th=zero!, =lose,
5th=ignore zero, (bet dz2 and dz3)

Zero will be regard an unfortunate losss, then ignore, and bet as if zero not there.

After reading some @turbo's in forums, I want to post my 1cents.
After 37spins.
2repeats=100% hit
3repeats=may or may not hit
4repeats=may or maynot hit.

Second 37spins (38th to 74th spin)
3repeats=100%
4repeats= may/maynot

Thus if we wait for 37spins, that has no 4repeat
Then bet the 3repeat, to become 4repeat,
we bet less and have better chances.

Same for third 37spins (75th to 111st spin)
4repeat=100%
5repeat= may/maynot hit
What you think.?

Hi,
Follow the last, for ec, is interesting, for...
1) streaking nature...
2) low br, or flatbet.
3) extreme variance avoidance...
4) variance stop loss management.
5) random management

Ftl, strategy, long existed, since baccarat and roulette were invented, nevertheless, I think we could, tweak this strategy,

Could anyone here,  please help,
post,  few CHART, for follow the last..flatbet 1 unit, 
.preferably more than a thousand spins, or baccarat,
Thus we could see how the line move, snaking up and down,  to southeast, ..due to HE.



IF the ftl,  is STABLE, then we could apply, random management, extreme variance management, virtual loss strategy, ...to take advantage of the STREAKING NATURE , of ftl
Thanks in advance

BELOW SHOW THE THREE DECISION,
OF MATRIX THREE, OF DOZENS,
WHICH PROVIDE GOO BETTING OPPORTUNITIES.

THE BRACKET SHOW HOW THE DZ BEHAVE IN SIX SPINS.


DECISION====PINWHEEL.
A A A      300 
C C  C     003 [303]
A A  B     210=[213]
A A  C     201=[411]
A B C      111=[312]
B A B      120=[231]
B A B      120=[240]
A C C      102=[222]
B C A      111=[213]
C C C      003=[114]
C C A      102=[105]
B A A      210=[312]
C C C      003=[213] 
C B B      021=[024]
B C C      012=[033]
A A C      201=[213]
C A A      201=[402]
C A B      111=[312]
B A B      120=[231]
C C A      102=[222]   
C C B      012=[114]
A B B       120=[132]
B A A       210=[330]
C A A       201=[411]
B C B       021=[222]
A C B       111=[132]
A C C       102=[213]
C B C       012=[114]
A A B       210=[222]
A C A       201=[411]
C B   B     021=[222]
ZERO C B    011=[032]
B B B       030=[041]
C C B       012=[042]
B C B       021=[033]
C C A       102=[123]
A C A       201=[303]
A B B       120=[321]
B A C       111=[231]
B C C       012=[123]
B C C       012=[024]
ZERO B C    011=[023]
A B B       120=[131]
C B C       012=[132]
B A B       120=[132]
B B C       021=[141]
C B C       012=[033]
A C B       111=[123]
B C B       021=[132]
A C A       201=[221]
C B A       111=[312]
A C A       201=[312]
B C C       012=[213]
B B B       030=[042]
A C B       111=[141]
A A A       300=[411] 
B A B       120=[420]
B A B       120=[240]
B C C       012=[132]
A C  A      201=[213]
ZERO B A    110=[311]
A A B       210=[320]
B B A       120=[330]
B A B       120=[240]
A A B       210=[330]
B C C       012=[222]
A A B       210=[222]
C C B       012=[222]
B B A       120=[132]
A B B       120=[240]
A A A       300=[420]
C B C       012=[312]
A B B       120=[132]
A C A       201=[321]
A A C       201=[402]
C B C       012=[213]
B A C       111=[123]
A B B       120=[231]
A C B       111=[231]
B C A       111=[222]
A B  B      120=[231]
A A C       201=[321]
B B B       030=[231]
ZERO B A    110=[140]
B A A       210=[320]   
B B C       021=[231]
C A A       201=[222]
C B B       021=[222]
A B A       210=[231]
A B C       111=[321]
C B A       111=[222]
C B C       012=[123]
C B B       021=[033]
B B B       030=[051]
B B B       030=[060]
B B A       120=[150]
A A  C      201=[321]
B A A       210=[411]
ZERO A B    110=[320]
C B A       111=[221]
A B 
====
Anahl Spiele:  302

Gentlement,
This idea already stale since first casino open  shop.
But nevertheless, interesting.

say, Red/Black, or Player/Banker,
we arrange as a matrix of three.

and...
in over simplified example...
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

in nine spins...

in first 3 spin
RED,RED, RED=one event...

then, next 3spins
Black,black,black= another different event...

and next  3spin...
Red,black,red = another event.

thus we have , after 9spin, arrangge in matrix of three=


RRR
BBB
RBR...
what the chances probability...that in next 9spins
that the above three different "event", REPEATED AGAIN?


Thus,
if..
RRR
BBB
RBR...then...
RRR
BBB
RBR....YOU LOSE!
===================

Another example, but in 18spins..
in over simplified example, for easy eyes visualization, and understand.


first 6spin, IN MATRIX OF THREE.
RRR
RRR...one event

NEXT 6SPINS...
BBB
BBB...another event

THEN NEXT 6SPINS
RBR
RBR. yet another event.

thus you have after 18 spins...

RRR
RRR.............an event
BBB
BBB..............another event
RBR
RBR................yet another event..
thus what the chances probability that the above will repeat exactly?

in the long RUN,
we will have ...hit WITHIN MATH EXPECTATION,
meaning, there will highly unlikely that,
the extreme variance will hit.

and take advantage of this result.
Remember,
it the extreme variance,
that cause huge losses to whatever progression...ever invented.

Hi Gentlemen,
Here, a few strategy, that are grail, that adhered to math probability,
that you may bet on table layout,
or on wheel itself,
(as some here prefer the pie ,stars, or any segment on the wheel...)

DS, or six numbers on wheel.

Wait for six DS,
TO HIT IN SIX SPINS.
then bet , in next six spins,
only five, or less, DS, will hit.
place insurance on GREEN.

what the probability of Six DS,
to hit again?

FOUR 9NUMBERS SECTION.
Wait for FOUR , to hit in 4 spins.
bet only 3, or less, to hit in next 4spins.

What the probability, of FOUR, to hit again?

DOZENS.
WAIT FOR ALL 3 DOZEN TO HIT IN 3SPINS.
bet it won't, or would REPEAT, IN NEXT 3SPINS.
dozens, may hit, twice in row, 3 in row, 4 in row,
even 5in row!
What the math probability?

And figure out the MM.


The best of these strategies,
THEY ALWAYS ADHERED TO

MATH...

EXPECTATION!

simply mean, the probability of HORRIBLE VARIANCE..IS LOW.

YOU MAY WAIT OUT THE LOSER, AND BET THE EXPECTATION!
unbelieveable?
BELIEVE IT.

Gentlemen,
There will be only THREE probability,
one of three scenario, to happen in next,
10,20,or 30spins...


Say, if you choose to bet BLACK, in roulette,
or BANKER, in baccarat,
what will HAPPEN?..in next , say 20spins?
===================

#first scenario=BREAKEVEN,
[say 10win 10 lose]
more or less, within math expectation.
thus win or lose little, if flatbet 1u.

#second scenario=EXTREME POSITIVE VARIANCE.
[say 15win 5 lose]

    'win' extremely more, than 'lose'.
thus HUGE profit, if flatbet 1u.


#third scenario.=EXTREME NEGATIVE VARIANCE.
[say 5win 15 lose]

''lose', extremly more, than 'win'.
thus    HUGE loss, if flatbet 1u.

I don't know the RATIO,
of the #1,2,3 scenarios.
But, I THINK,
it will be in [ratio=1:1:1]

in next three session,
1 will breakeven,
1 will positive,
1 will negative.
====================
Now the adage,
"Making HAY while sunshine",
applied here.

say, if we have initial bank roll,
and divided to bet in next 9session,
say, 9000/9=1000  initial capital per session.



bet with $1000
#first scenario=BREAKEVEN,

since the result, will breakeven,
we try to win, with progression,
DOUBLE the initial capital,
when PROFIT TARGET=2000,achived,
STOP BET!
===========================


#second scenario=EXTREME POSITIVE VARIANCE.
    'win' extremly more, than 'lose'.


since the result, will  MORE "win", than "lose",
we try to win, with progression,
DOUBLE the initial capital,
when PROFIT TARGET=2000,achived,
STOP BET!
===========================


#third scenario.=more 'LOSE', than 'win',

since the result, will NEGATIVE,
impossible to win...
We STOP the bet, cut loss,
when the losses, reach -1000.

===========================

If the ratio=[1:1:1]
this mean, in every 9sessions,
we have the probability,
in long term play...

of 3losses sessions,
and 6 profitable sessions.
================

This way, we do not stop, at first win,
we take ADVANTAGE to the hilt,
of ,

BREAKEVEN, and POSITIVE
VARIANCE sessions,
to DOUBLE the initial capital,

and CUT LOSS,
when hit by the,
INEVITABLE NEGATIVE VARIANCE.

I see that many agreed,
to STOP-at-first-win, when positive,
and bet till all capital depleted,...
when negative variance hit?

What you think?

HARSH,EXTREME-VARIANCE,& WITHIN EXPECTATION.

Gentlemen,
Seems that some members here,
are too PRE-occupied,
with HARSH,
and EXTREME-negative variance!

[and how to risk a huge bundle,
to tackle them, when they hit...
which are highly difficult to play,
in BM casino,
consider,
placing up to 20, 30, 50,
even 100chips at a time????]
===================

Instead we should tackle , by
SURRENDER TO the UNAVOIDABLE,

and,
EXPLOIT THE POSITIVE TO HILT.

and ACCEPT,
what must happen,
with different angle and strategy.

Say,
in the next 20spins,
of betting SINGLE dozen.
THREE scenario may happen....

1]HIT within-expectation.
which is the "usual happenning".
[where single hit around 1/3.]

2]EXTREME-positive-variance-trait.
which is "god-sent"...
but do happen frequently...
[where single hit > 2/3.]


3]EXTREME-NEGATIVE-variance-trait.
which some call HARSH session,
and seems that some try to beat them,
with suicidal staking!
[where single hit  <1/6.]

IMHO,
I think,
we should TAKE advantage,
to the HILT.
of
1]within-expectation session.

2]POSITIVE -variance session.

And cut loss, only lose the intended BR,
when unavoidable HARSH hit!

Say,
if we RISKED,
X amount of BR,
per session,
and since,
we can't predict future,
thus we WAIT,
for a LOSING-HARSH session,
to passed,
thus reduced the risk.
and we start to bet,
and we may faced the three scenario.

1]within expectation.
2]Extreme-POSITIVE variance.
3]Extreme-NEGATIVE variance.

and...
this should happen...

1]When within expectation, hit...
We try to double the X risked.

2]When Extreme-POSITIVE variance, hit...
We try to double the X risked.

3]When Extreme-NEGATIVE variance hit....
We ONLY lose,
ALL,
the X risked.

This the concept of winning more
than the FIXED-cut-losses, amount.

and FIXED cut losses,
and target profit,
thus in long run,
with the EXPECTATION,
of win/lose RATIO,
of sessions...
we still win.


In an OVER-SIMPLIFIED,
naive,example...

When we bet, say, 100chips...,
bet single dozen,

the next three scenario will hit..

1]within expectation.

we win,
=100chips target.

2]Extreme-POSITIVE variance.

we win,
=100chips target.

3]Extreme-NEGATIVE variance.

we LOSE ALL=-100chips...

Thus after, 9sessions,
we win,
+600chips,
and lose,
-300chips,
thus net,
=+300chips.

That an OVER-SIMPLIFIED naive example,
so you understand what I mean.

===============
The million dollar question,
is...
we should have a strategy,
that win double our BR when,

EXTREME-POSITIVE-variance, hit!,

and

WITHIN EXPECTATION spins, hit!,


and ONLY-LOSE,
the single-sessions-BR,
when ..
"unavoidable-EXTREME-NEGATIVE variance",
hit!

and a reliable,
WIN/LOSE RATIO,
of sessions risked.
[extreme-positive/negative/within-expectation RATIO]



What you think???