Quote from: Gizmotron on March 07, 2018, 04:16:43 PM

For example the not-trend is something.

NOT TREND IS SOMETHING, because it alternate with trending...
a quote needs pondering,   hard...

After many hours of hard thinking,
I think we need a bet-selection , which
ALWAYS PRODUCE HIT WITHIN MATH EXPECTATION.

In roulette the HE of 2.8, or roughly 3%,  then
if your selection is STABLE, then in next 100spins risked bet,
you lose 3units flatbet....as end result...

100spins risked is too short, 300spins risked, is more STABLE.
THUS, if flatbet, only lose around +-10units.

If you can't understand,
then in OVER-SIMPLIFIED EXAMPLE.

in a bag, there 48red, 48black & 4green marbles.
to simulate HE of 4%.
Take out a marble as a bet, and cast aside,

Thus , no matter how many seasons, at last spin, the math is lose-4units.

So play a billion seasons,
you will see billion of permutations, with whatever possible random, extreme variances,
streaking, chopping, but the result, at the end, alway lose 4u, never win.

So its up to us to bet a STABLE SELECTION, by waiting and watch the random, extreme variances,
streaking to happened first, before you starting bet faithfully.

Now, the real trillion dollar question...is..
Do you have..
STABLE BET SELECTION!!!???

May I chip in my half cent,

CoderJoe is right, JL is right too, they just on different parrarel time plane.

When Coderjoe simulate 20k test, it continuously,  the 24 hours casino  table also continuously,

So assume Coderjoe simulation computer need 24hours, to work through the 20k test,
and he start the test at 6am, after he start the test,
he brushes his teeth and take a bath, after dressing up, he take a look at this simulation,
he notice the tens of win, a few losses, and the current bet produces a win...
Then after breakfast, have a look again,
"Ahh, the current a hit, and the tens of win and few losses in between. .",he murmured.
Hours later, take a look again,
After lunch,  have a look again,
At 2pm, take a look again,
After evening tea, look again,
After dinner, look again,
After an hour, look again,
in short, he peeks every hourly through the 24hours period.
What he found when he sneak in and  peek?
The result when he peeked show win, and only once show loss!

Nothing wrong with the simulation test, it right throughout,
But Coderjoe didn't look at the screen for 24hours continuously!
If he did, then , he  looked at losing bets.

He only peeks, intervaly, hourly.

Now in  the casino 24hour table, the wheel spins continuosly 24hours,
JL walk in , every few day interval, and win more than he lose,
if he sit at and bet continuosly 24/7/365, well, he loses his underwear,  before new year eves!


The real math equation, should be...
What the %, of win/lose,
when JL, sit in and start to bet ONCE, at that particular moment of the day?=1/7

We can't  beat random.
We can't catch streaks.
We can't predict when a streak will start or stop.

We can't, but we can know when the random show itself up,
And we can KNOW WHEN the streaks run...
HOW?
EASY!
the answer, ...(drumroll)
(hold your breath, the answer, worth your lifetime bank saving.)






JUST WAIT AND WATCHING THEM RUN..
(.HA! HA! HA!HAWW! HAWWWWW!....)

Oop! Sorry for LOL!
Yeah, the answer is ,
Just wait and watch them RUN!
Yes, SERIOUSLY, that the answer...

If you understand, you will now jump up and hit the ceiling,  and can't sleep tonight,
for you found what you seek in you whole internet forum life...

Dear Nickmsi,
The last chart you post, ( thank you very much),
I assumed,
it is double zero roulette?
The 5.6% losses of  -539units,
in 9577bet, with 6205 wins.

I think it should bet from the second  spin to the10000th spin,
Whenever ,
zero hit,  take the previous dozen, before the zero,
, as indicator, thus 9999bets.

If you do a , say, 300spins, and every "300spins" result,
show hit within math expectation,
then this selection, is STABLE.
(European roulette is way better risk, obviously...)
Thanks Nickmsi.

Thank  you Nickmsi.

Our purpose is to look for a bet selection that is VERY STABLE.
when a selection is Stable,  the along the way, in 100, 200, 300spins,
The end result always  hit within MATH EXPECTATION,
thus in roulette, it , if stable, always ,only lose only a few units in 100 risked bet,
Or in a 1000risked bet, it lose only a tens of units.
If a selection, that win tens and in the following season lose tens, then it is not stable, and we bet on luck.

In over-simplified example, a stable bet,
In a bag, there 50 black and 50 red  marble, cast aside when drawn.
Thus in next 100 bets, flatbet, in the end,  the result always zero,
So how we bet?
The answer very obvious.

In real life, if a selection is stable,
Then the streaking and clustering, are our advantages,
Whenever an imbalance occured,
We could bet , hoping to ride on the streaking and clustering effect of the remaining spins,
the QUESTION is ...whether the bet selection is STABLE?

Thank you so much Nickmsi,
Appreaciate your kindness of testing and postings.

I see that, the testing spins=9577bets, instead of 9999/10000bets risked,
The very first spin did not risked...as it just indicator for 2nd spin bet.
(Zero, excluded?)
Please clarify.
Thank you very much.

Hi Nickmsi,
I test your xls,
I noticed that, when previous decision =dz1, the program bet dz2 &dz3....

May you please have a program, that,
If previous decision=dz1, then bet dz1 and dz2.


This strategy, take advantage of dozen STREAKS.AND CLUSTERING.
I am no good at computer, maybe  if you just post few charts will do,
Appreciate your work,
Thanks in advance

Thank you so much Nickmsi,
Appreaciate them!
The purpose,
Is to see if the result, in short, medium, and long term, eg. 100, 200, 300, 500, 1000, 10000...so on..
whether they always hit WITHIN MATH EXPECTATION!( That losing only at HE.)
If they do,
Then, with variance management, random avoidance, streaking, and cluster advantage, we could win a few units flatbet, in every 100, 200 or 300spins.
Maybe if we look at more charts, we may come to conclusion, that this a STABLE SELECTION.
thanks.

I had hand test this for 4000spins real roulette, at the end hit just within math expectation, but 4k, too small to conclude.
Thus, will very grateful if anyone here could test with their computer.
Thanks in advance

Hi, I am keen to know whether this dozen strategy is a stable or unsteady selection.
If this a stable selection, we could easily win a few unit before 300spins.

Anyone could help, by testing flatbet a few thousand spins, and just post the charts here, as many chart possible.
Thanks in advance.

Dz1=dozen one, and so on...
Double dozen bet.


If last spin= dz1, then bet dz1 and dz2. (Win or lose, then...)
If next spin=dz2, then bet dz2 and dz3 (win or lose, then..)
If next spin=dz3, then bet dz3 and dz1 (win or lose...)
If next spin=zero, take loss, then bet the previous indicator dozen.
Xxxxxxxxxxx

eg.
1st= dz1, (  bet dz1 and dz2)
2nd=dz3, (  bet dz3 and dz1)
3rd= dz2, (bet dz2 and dz3)
4th=zero!, =lose,
5th=ignore zero, (bet dz2 and dz3)

Zero will be regard an unfortunate losss, then ignore, and bet as if zero not there.

Thank you so much, Nickmsi, for your charts,  and thought, appreciate them.

I have zero knowledge about 2group, 3group strategy,
May you please teach me.
Thanks in advance!

From the ftl, and ftdbl charts,
(Albeit only 2charts, thus can't make a conclusion,)
We can see ftl, ftdbl flat bet line snaking up and down,
from but only 2charts, we could make temporary loose assumption, that these are
STABLE SELECTION.
simply mean , after a thousand bets, every spins risked, we lose ONLY at the HE!
Thus with flatbet, and variance random avoidance strategy, we could win constantly.
Hope Nickmsi, could post as many possible ftl, and ftdbl charts,
Thus we have better understanding about whether they are really stable.
Thanks

After 300+ spins,
A number or 2 or more,
will hit more than 10 times.
Before these numbers hit , common sense tell us,
they must went through 123456...hits before reaching 10th.

Thus we must have a method to catch these hottie...
eg,
Bet till 333, only,
wait for 111th spin, a few will hit over 5hits, we may risking to bet those numbers,
Stop bet a particular number after 35bet without hit, resume after that number hit again.
Thus we stop risking more br when the number decided to stop at 5hits.
And if a number becomes very hot, it keep hitting before every 35th spin bet,.
Anumber may stop at 5th hit, 6th hit, 7, 8, 9, 10...
What you think?

After reading some @turbo's in forums, I want to post my 1cents.
After 37spins.
2repeats=100% hit
3repeats=may or may not hit
4repeats=may or maynot hit.

Second 37spins (38th to 74th spin)
3repeats=100%
4repeats= may/maynot

Thus if we wait for 37spins, that has no 4repeat
Then bet the 3repeat, to become 4repeat,
we bet less and have better chances.

Same for third 37spins (75th to 111st spin)
4repeat=100%
5repeat= may/maynot hit
What you think.?

Thank you BA for your thought,
You're right about the imbalance vs rtm risk.

When we bet ftl and ft2ndlast,
we try to take advantage of the streaking and clustering nature of the EC bet,
Flatbet them , and we risk little, but also gain little.

I think, the best way to bet them, is to outwait the variance and the losing sequence random, till them break.
At least we do not lose  the precious br.

Wish someone could  post charts of ftl and ft2nd last here.
Thanks