RTM

for the newbies,
who want to understand,
what is RTM,
and VARIANCE,
let me try to explain in simple example.
=======================

RTM=regression toward mean.
Variance =the losing hit keep coming,
while the winning seem stubborn to hit.
==========

RTM.
oversimplified example..

lets play a game.

Say, inside a bag,
there 50red and 50black
ping-pong balls.

You take out,draw,
one ball at a time,
and NOT putting back the ball,
into the bag.
You cast the ball away.
u set aside the ball.

Then, everytime u take a ball out,
u note down, the color of the ball,
on a piece of paper.

After 100th ball ,
   taken out,
you will see that,

if red value=1,
black=-1,

simply mean,
red, u win,
black , u lose.


At the 100th ball,
the result,
win/lose =ZERO value,
no win, no lose,

and

the probability of,
WORST VARIANCE,

=-50 NEGATIVE,
streak of 50losses.

OR,
=+50 POSITIVE...variance...
streak of 50wins...


No matter, whether,
you win,
best profit=+50,

or lose ,
worst losses=-50,

at the end, the 100th ball,
the value will,
return to mean=0.

The 50red/50black balls-in-bag,
is a 'FIXED' with no EDGE game.
The best win possible=+50,
and worst possible=-50,

if you CHART the profit/loss,
as a single LINE chart,
from 1st ball, to the 100th ball,
and after many sets of games,
u will see the line move up and down,
and the LAST profit/loss=0value,
that REGRESSION TO MEAN.

RCTM,
mean ,
regression CLOSER to mean,

the end line of profit loss,
due to unlimited 'balls',
and EDGE, and variance,
and unlimited spins,
only come close to zero,
as a probability.

Halloo Mr Mike,
With due respect,

Since u a newbie in betting,
I suggest u ,
Go to Albalaha web, and read with open mind,
Spend a few hundreds hours there, and absorb, as much,
Gambling theory, and understand what he taught there, as u wasting your time here.

Btw, I not selling anything, and never, and will never ask for money,
Just love for ruolette,
That I post here, for love of roulette. And betting theory.

Hmmmmm...
Wondering to myself, what I doing here, explaing the depth of betting , then suddenly,
The ,the..the guy asked,
WHAT THE #@%$#@ IS..RTM!!!!!!?

Arrggghhhhhhh!!!!!!!
#@#$#@%$÷×@#!!!
WHAT THE THE THE  ...
OMG!
WHAT AM I DOING HERE, ?

#$#@#$÷#$@%
don't know want to laugh, or cry out loud....
Sheeeeeeshhhhh...

[quote author=Mike link=topic=6373.msg48056#msg48056 date=147038443


@ BEAT-THE-WHEEL,

Selections based on probability won't overcome the house edge. You need a way to select bets which overcome the house advantage otherwise your results will merely conform to the negative expectation. Probabilities can help if you're playing in order to reach some specific goal or manage a limited bankroll, but it won't give any advantage.


[/quote]
Hi Mike,
First thing first.
1. There NO bet selection that, have EDGE.!

Wipe this notion from your brain, we not looking for, have edge.
Or Having ADVANTAGE,

We look for STABLE  selection,

AND TAKE ADVANTAGE,

BY MANIPULATING VARIANCE,
AND manipulating RTM, or rather...
or RCTM,!

And win more than losses.


UNTIL YOU UNDERSTAND THIS FACTS, YOU WILL STILL RUNNING IN CIRCLE,
PROCLAIMING,  the already STALE, SINCE CASINO OPEN SHOP,!!!

@#&%¥ MERELY conforming to HE,
negative expectation, no advantage...bla,bla,bla

WE NO NOT ABHORE
ADVANTAGE, OR EDGE..
BUT EMBRACE THEM!

PLEASE LEARN MORE, BEFORE POSTING!!!
!

Dear Mike,
With respect.
Let me, try to explain, in simple English,
[since my English, quite laughaable though...]

Present spin, not connected to past,
and can't predict future  spins-decision.
that's true,


but lets see at "sets bet", of hits.

eg.
We can't predict future,
but we see as event of probability.
say,
will double streets, of 123456...

all SIX DOUBLE STREET,
hit, in NEXT six spins?

Yes...but 1%chance,
or 1/600spins, albeit the zero HE.
Why 600spins, because we need 6spins to have 123456DS.
====================

If NOW,
we see, SIX DS hit, in six spins,
WILL SIX DIFFERENT ds HIT AGAIN,
in next six spins?
How are u going to win?
What the risk?
How much the profit vs risk?
=====================
Double Street.
123456,

if you see 123321 hit,
will 123321 hit AGAIN, in next six spins?
==================

Double Street.
123456,



or for easy visual,
ABCDEF, as ds123456.

if dsA hit, then dsB hit,
that 1space...from dsA

if dsA hit, then dsC hit,
that TWO space...from dsA

thus if u see ABCDEF street hit in row,
that space of 1,1,1,1,1...

A to B=1
B to C=1.
C to D=1..so on..

will  11111, hit again , in next six spins?
=================

thus if u see ABDEABD  street hit in row,
THAT 121212,
WILL 121212 HIT IN NEXT SIX SPINS AGAIN?

AB=1
BD=2
DE=1
EA=2
AB=1
BD=2

=====================================
Double Street.

IF U see DS=ABCABC,
in last six spins,
will ABC, hit in NEXT three spins?

===========
if u see , say DS A and D, sleep for 12spins,
then DS A hit, and now, will DS A and D, together ,
sleep for next six spins?
==========================

that a few simple example for you, to see, the
bet as "SET",
that still edhered to laws of what ever probability,
large number , bla bla bla

Gentlemen,
The BILLION dollar QUESTION?

Will the profit/loss single line move toward the ZERO,

[or in Nick's word,
RCTM=return closer to mean???]

or move up after a foreseeable DRAWDOWN.
as the waves of profit /loss single line show up and down,
in a predictable fashion,
why?
as we argue this non random always RTM, or RCTM,
thus the wave must move up, and down, and up down up down,
to rtm, or rctm....


after a CERTAIN fixed amount of bet taken???

100bet taken
1000bet taken
10k
100?


================================


In an OVERSIMPLIFIED example,
of how to bet.

Let say after we research,millions of,
x spins increment [of nine spins]chart,
we see that the drawdown, and drawup,
never exceed,

say 50units,

and at the end of the CHART,
the line ALWAY RTM, or RATHER RCTM,
to never MORE/less, than -+10units,

thus,

we wait for the drawup nearing to +50,
or drawdown  near -50u,
then we bet accordingly, having faith,
that the line will RTM, or RCTM,

and move out

after positive.

[just an OVERSIMPLIFIED example]
====================

IF, the END OF the chart show RANDOM result!
random RCTM, and RFFM,
[Return FAR from MEAN]



meaning , it has  random end result,
or fail to RTM, or RCTM,
then we just forget this so called ,
non-random bet.


NON random , bet behavior,
always show,
RTM, or RCTM, with the HE thrown in.
in the end of the chart,
and easily taken advantage of.
by waiting for the PERCEIVED ,
after researched millions charts,
perceived limit of drawup and drawdown.

and perceived value of posibble RTM, or rather RCTM.

just my thought.

Dear Sensei Kimo Li,
With respect.
I not expect Sensei to reply to my post...


Long time no see, ahh,
but just few months back,
when Sensei deleted 
blog's forums posting...
hehehee

But you see,
yeah!!!
that  2star=
2pies=
everyone knows="TWO"numbers bet.


orang utan has TWO legs!and a tail...
=========================
I must admit, that bet selection, with
some kind of HAR, is possible with some MM,
to win constantly


Hehehee,
don't worry, I will keep our secret.
hahahaaaaw

Calling Sensei Kimo Li.

I bet Sensei Kimo Li will smirk and chuckle out loud when he read this.


SIX PIES AND SIX STARS BET.

in first xx hours,
when 2pies, and 2stars decided to take a room together ,
a pair will not last the next xx hours.
===============

But, Sensei Kimo Li,
will say nothing when I post...his "secret"
he will clamp up like a clamp, as usual, hehehee
hahahaaaha.

Gentlemen,
No need to test million, or billions spins...

===============
as MarkTeruya points out...

"The obvious flaw with VDW is that over the 512 possible binary combinations, only 256 of the 9 hand possible sequences can provide profit, meaning 50% of the time you will profit and 50% of the time you will either lose 1, 2, 3, 4 bets or break even.  When you count losing v's winning bets, it is all 50-50, because this is common to everything, this should not be considered a negative.  When you start your 9 hand sequence there is no positive expectation that "that a win will come"."

==============


"...only 256 of the 9 hand possible sequences can provide profit, meaning 50% ..."

It is not FLAW,
it just, albeit HE, the method is just stable 50/50 chance,
and HUGE losses occur, only when the   "losing sequences" keep hitting..
but since  "losing sequences" keep hitting..",
is something within the VARIANCE, and random, we have no choice, but adhere to the law of random, variance, and probability.

What we need, is a method that keep "bounce back",
without the dreaded huge DRAWDOWN.

The problem is,
does VDW, produce HUGE VARIANCE?

Maybe Nick, and Auto, kind enough, to produce ,
flatbet  profit/loss result, in a SINGLE LINE chart,

[in 100,1000,10000,million, spin of BET-TAKEN],

and we can see how the profit/loss result in single LINE,
and HOW,
the line moves in WAVE, moving up and down,
and we can deduce when to start bet FLAT.
or not bet.

my half cent thought.

Gentlemen,

PA, in the "PA:preaching about HG", thread,

stressed the utmost importance of STABLE betselection
system or strategy.

We not going after a selection,
that always produce an EDGE,
but a selection, that STABLE.

That , if EC,
always hit, and LOSE,
[yes, LOSE!..not win]
WITHIN the probability of 50/50, minus HE!

When we bet THE stable selection,
with FLAT-bet,
after 100,1000,10000, or billion spins, of bet taken,
the result will always, around ZERO, minus the HE...

But people INSISTS that,
a stable selection, a nonsense.
or simply brush off as non existence...
and still look for selection, that produce EDGE!

The casino painstakingly, ensure that their wheels,
well-balanced, and no extreme biased allowed.

And every KNOWN theory, and debates
insist that, system that produce EDGE,
can't sustain run, or even exist.

Thus we go for the MOST stable selection,
that always produce result , when bet with FLATBET,
will produce losing result within the HE!



Nick, as he claimed, found a STABLE betselection,
thus after many spins, the result near zero.

Thus if he flatbet, and chart the profit-loss result,
with a single line CHART,

he will noticed that the line will move up and down, like a wave,
always crossing the ZERO value.

Up when the positive variance hit,
and then cross downward the zero value,
when negative variance hit.

The beauty of a stable selection,
when FLATBET, is the profit-loss line will
ALWAYS, never fail, to move UP over the ZERO value,
and then DOWN crossing the ZERO value,
again and again.



That line up and down,
"again, and again",
is WHAT we need most!

Then how are we going to bet, with... mild progression?

In an OVERSIMPLIFIED example,

say in next 100bet risked, there will be 50 hit, and 50lose decision.
The problem, as,
we all already know, the will  no,
win,lose,win,lose,win,lose,win,lose...

there will be always cluster of winning and losing,
in first half, or second half.

[imagine the UP and DOWN profit/loss LINE chart]

Say, if first 50bet, we bet 1unit, we see losses,
then the next 50bet,

we risked, 2units,
thus the first 50losses,
will be offset by,
the next cluster of next 50winning.

This is oversimplified example,

Then,
if we still lose after first 100spins,
then the next 100spin risked,
we need to add up units,
so the losses recoup,
and produce a single profit.
and rewind.

The billion question dollar question, is,
do you have faith that your bet selection, really STABLE???

Hope you understand my bad English.

Thelaw,
If we bet EVERY spin, then sooner or later, will hit the deadly streak, that cause huge losses!

Why not try the Kattila's, and Albalaha's,
that , we wait for 3L, then bet, and if still lose after, say 4spins Losses...
Stop bet,
wait for another 3L?
Bet selection, that produce stable win lose , a priority, before progression.

Hello Denzie,
Xxxxxxxxxxxxxx

Gentlemen,
With due respect,
What Albalaha mean, I think, is, you must tackle the variance, before you, bet with your progression.
And cut losses, if the worst ever variance hit!

What Denzie mean, is,
I think, he wait for, by play virtually, on paper, till huge losses, or average or near worst dd happened, and
then bet real money, when the chart show, upward movement toward the rtm.
Thanks.

Hi Albalaha,
That exactly what I mean!

Any moment, streak of long losses will hit, and any thought out progression ever, will doomed!
The real education, is how to tackle them, the long losing streak of losses, or variance.
It seems that people can't,or just refused, to understand.
Thanks for your superb blogs.

Gentlemen,
Albalaha, is one of the best expert in gambling theory and practicing pro.
What he tries to tell is,

Say, if in next 1000spins, there will be a streak of  100losses! Somewhere in between!
Then how are you going to, or rather not to lose HUGE!  With whatever your so called holy progression?
How are you going to bet?

That the real millon dollar education, and knowledge.
It so simple, yet difficult for some to grasp!

Quote from: Albalaha on April 13, 2016, 03:25:48 AM
Increasing in this manner doesn't help. Did you see the fate of Blue Angel's system? It tanked even hundreds of thousands. Azim's tracker prove that as well. How do you come up with loser ideas again and again. Increasing in patches of 37 or 100 or 1000 won't help.

Since none of my ideas work,
and also,
since none of anyone ideas here worked,
and also none posted any workable progressions.. .
or any workable method,
or any workable system,
or any workable strategy, here..

Since no ideas or strategy works...

I think I might , as well , forget about
gambling...