Gentlemen,

Since Baccarat's
"player/banker",
will,
or rather,
may,
near BREAKEVEN,
or RTM.

,Say,
after, 2000, to 3000bets,

to hit around 45%,
[depending on your unavoidable 'luck-factor']...

and a long streaky possibility too.

Then, I THINK,
bet 1u, for say, 1000bets,
if lose, then bet 2u, for 1000bets.
if still lose, then bet 4u for 1000bets.
Thus inevitably, the streaky will come, and with the ,
"at least 45%",
winning will be no problem...

Or if we try to bet, say,
45% of player hit/3000bets,
by applying BlueAngle style,
of MINIMUM EXPECTATION,

45% of player hit/3000bets,
MINIMUM EXPECTATION,=1350u.
BUT! expect the marthy to kicks in,
at the very last bet!
or,...

simply bet 123456...
1u for first 100bet.
2u for 2nd 100bets,'
3u for 3rd 100,
4u for 4th 100,
5u for 5th 100bet,
till win...

why so?
Since the chances for LONGGGG Baccarat=RTM...

Since I can't do simulation,
maybe some of you could try , and post the result.

What U think???

Thanks.

Hi Albalaha,
I think 'virtual betting'
only work, if we,
incorporate them,
after 'variance avoidance',
and with,
a 'virtual-limit-induced-progression' strategy.

But of course we lose out the opportunity for early win,
as,
this only work, when the quite-extreme,
or worst set to happen,
thus wasting early-come-opportunity,
and time...

But if time not a factor,
then this will be very interesting.

Dear Albalaha,

Since, you have,
"simulated millions spins to see all these.."

May you please,
publish,

what the "VIRTUAL LIMIT"...

for 3700spins?

eg.
worst ever DOZEN, in 3700spin=?
worst ever EC , in 3700spin=?
worst ever  STREET, in 3700spin=?
etc.

Seriously...
This will be very helpful!
To build a sustainable strategy...

When we, at least, understand the acceptable,
virtual limit, of what possible,
then we could "ready" for the eventuality,
with a 'hardened' progression.
Thanks in advance..

THUS,
if it is 'true',

that 3700spins,
"always",
beget ,
"within-expectation"
s very easy to build a HG around this theory!!!

I try to simulate,
Albalaha's claim,
that after around 3700spins,
[on and off betting,
different tables,
different time bet session],
to see whether it is true,
that,
the hit will always whithin expectation.

Though the samples, are too small,
for me to make a true hypothesis,
but I see that it is true.


below, ten tables result,
of real spins result.
You may do the calculation, yourself.
==========================

total=3707spins
dz1=1213hits=32.72%
dz2=1240hits=33.45%
dz3=1167hits=31.48%
zero=87hits=2.34%




====
Anzahl Spiele:  340spins
H剈figkeiten:

single-number....hits
  0   8hits
  1   9hits
  2   8
  3  15
  4   6
  5   7
  6   6
  7   8
  8   8
  9   5
10   9
11   7
12  11
13   8
14   5
15   9
16   9
17   8
18  13
19  11
20  13
21   3
22   7
23   7
24  10
25  11
26  15
27  11
28   6
29  10
30  10
31  16
32   8
33  10
34  12
35  10
36  11
Schwarz     166
Rot         166
Pair        167
Impair      165
Passe       181
Manque      151
1. Dutzend   99
2. Dutzend  103
3. Dutzend  130
1. COL      112
2. COL      106
3. COL      114
====================================
====
Anzahl Spiele:  338
H剈figkeiten:
  0   7
  1  13
  2   8
  3   4
  4   8
  5  11
  6   9
  7   5
  8   8
  9   9
10   5
11   4
12  14
13  12
14   7
15   8
16   6
17   9
18   8
19  11
20  11
21   9
22  11
23  10
24   5
25   9
26  10
27  12
28  10
29  15
30  12
31   8
32   6
33  13
34  12
35   9
36  10
Schwarz     163
Rot         168
Pair        160
Impair      171
Passe       183
Manque      148
1. Dutzend   98
2. Dutzend  107
3. Dutzend  126
1. COL      110
2. COL      108
3. COL      113

=============================

====
Anzahl Spiele:  448
H剈figkeiten:
  0  10
  1  16
  2  14
  3  12
  4  15
  5  16
  6  14
  7   9
  8  16
  9  13
10  11
11   9
12  11
13  12
14  20
15  16
16  11
17   9
18   9
19  13
20  12
21   6
22  17
23  10
24  13
25  12
26   6
27  11
28  10
29  10
30   7
31  13
32  16
33  14
34  11
35  13
36  11
Schwarz     224
Rot         214
Pair        224
Impair      214
Passe       205
Manque      233
1. Dutzend  156
2. Dutzend  148
3. Dutzend  134
1. COL      150
2. COL      151
3. COL      137

===================================

====
Anzahl Spiele:  370
H剈figkeiten:
  0   5
  1   9
  2   8
  3  13
  4   9
  5  17
  6  11
  7  11
  8  11
  9  14
10  11
11  10
12   7
13   5
14   7
15  13
16  15
17  22
18  10
19   7
20   4
21   8
22   6
23   8
24   8
25  17
26  13
27   8
28   9
29   9
30   7
31  10
32  10
33   6
34  10
35   8
36  14
Schwarz     173
Rot         192
Pair        170
Impair      195
Passe       162
Manque      203
1. Dutzend  131
2. Dutzend  113
3. Dutzend  121
1. COL      119
2. COL      127
3. COL      119

=============================
Anzahl Spiele:  386
H剈figkeiten:
  0  13
  1  15
  2  14
  3  10
  4  14
  5  12
  6   9
  7   8
  8   4
  9  11
10  15
11   8
12  12
13   8
14  11
15  17
16  11
17  11
18  13
19  11
20  11
21  11
22  12
23   8
24   6
25   8
26   8
27   7
28   8
29  13
30   7
31  13
32   7
33  12
34  13
35   8
36   7
Schwarz     191
Rot         182
Pair        182
Impair      191
Passe       170
Manque      203
1. Dutzend  132
2. Dutzend  130
3. Dutzend  111
1. COL      136
2. COL      115
3. COL      122

====
====
Anzahl Spiele:  331
H剈figkeiten:
  0   8
  1  16
  2  11
  3   4
  4   9
  5   6
  6   7
  7   8
  8  10
  9   9
10   7
11  17
12   9
13   6
14  10
15   7
16   8
17  10
18  10
19   8
20  10
21   7
22   6
23   9
24  11
25  11
26  16
27  12
28  10
29   6
30   9
31   7
32   8
33  12
34   4
35   4
36   9
Schwarz     166
Rot         157
Pair        164
Impair      159
Passe       159
Manque      164
1. Dutzend  113
2. Dutzend  102
3. Dutzend  108
1. COL      100
2. COL      117
3. COL      106


=================================

====
Anzahl Spiele:  376
H剈figkeiten:
  0  10
  1   8
  2  10
  3  16
  4   6
  5  11
  6   9
  7   4
  8  12
  9   9
10  10
11  15
12   8
13  12
14   8
15  14
16  12
17  13
18  18
19   7
20  11
21  13
22  13
23  14
24  14
25   8
26   6
27   9
28  11
29   7
30   5
31  11
32  13
33   7
34   5
35   7
36  10
Schwarz     188
Rot         178
Pair        181
Impair      185
Passe       171
Manque      195
1. Dutzend  118
2. Dutzend  149
3. Dutzend   99
1. COL      107
2. COL      127
3. COL      132
===============================
====
Anzahl Spiele:  385
H剈figkeiten:
  0  11
  1  17
  2  13
  3   7
  4   8
  5   7
  6   7
  7  18
  8  17
  9  13
10  10
11   8
12   8
13  11
14  12
15   8
16  13
17  14
18  12
19   6
20  17
21   6
22   8
23  10
24   6
25  14
26  13
27   7
28   6
29   8
30  14
31   9
32   4
33  10
34  13
35  11
36   9
Schwarz     184
Rot         190
Pair        190
Impair      184
Passe       171
Manque      203
1. Dutzend  133
2. Dutzend  123
3. Dutzend  118
1. COL      133
2. COL      134
3. COL      107

=============================

====
Anzahl Spiele:  382
H剈figkeiten:
  0  10
  1   8
  2   9
  3  11
  4  13
  5  12
  6  11
  7  10
  8  10
  9  14
10   5
11  10
12   9
13  10
14  16
15  14
16  14
17  10
18   6
19   9
20  16
21   6
22  10
23  16
24  13
25   7
26   9
27  12
28  11
29  10
30   8
31   4
32   9
33  12
34   8
35  10
36  10
Schwarz     187
Rot         185
Pair        187
Impair      185
Passe       180
Manque      192
1. Dutzend  122
2. Dutzend  140
3. Dutzend  110
1. COL      109
2. COL      137
3. COL      126

===================================
====
Anzahl Spiele:  351
H剈figkeiten:
  0   5
  1  10
  2   9
  3  13
  4  14
  5  10
  6  10
  7   9
  8   9
  9   4
10   3
11  12
12   8
13  14
14   7
15   7
16   7
17  16
18  13
19   8
20   8
21  15
22   5
23  14
24  11
25   8
26   9
27   7
28   8
29   7
30  10
31  13
32  10
33  11
34  10
35  12
36   5
Schwarz     178
Rot         168
Pair        156
Impair      190
Passe       171
Manque      175
1. Dutzend  111
2. Dutzend  125
3. Dutzend  110
1. COL      109
2. COL      123
3. COL      114
================================
total=3707spins
dz1=1213
dz2=1240
dz3=1167
zero=87
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

Hi Albalaha,

If what you say is true...

Then,

Your grail,

may win on the very first few bets,

or prolong up to thousands of spins???

And since in your own blog,
you say,

"3700spins",

is a ,  "proven",

spins length, that produces, all the bets,

EC, DZ, STREETS, etc, to almost RTM,

almost BREAKEVEN,

albeit the edge...

Then permit me to say, that,

I deduce,

your grail must certainly,

designed to bet,

up to 3700 spins, to win????

Then ,

[I think, many people here,

interested, to see your argument],

could you ,

at least, give a rough guideline,

how a ,

perceived-grail, should have???

Thanks.

Quote from: Albalaha on March 25, 2016, 05:43:10 AM

2. Betting long term like 1000 or more spins may not happen at a stretch. If you play 1000 spins in a day or in 20 days, doesn't matter. A long run could be construed as 100x10 or even 50x20. Long run simply means multiple sessions taken together that leaves no room for temporary bias against you or in your favour.

3

Hi Albalaha,
Just couldnt understand, how and why,??
1000 spins in a day or in 20 days, doesn't matter??

please explain...
Thanks in advance.

Hi Albalaha,
With your conclusion,


then,
do you suggest,

that,
we should concentrate,
to bet longer spins, say,
500, or better, 1000spins,
since they will almost always
near breakeven, and RTM?

Thanks.

Thanks BlueAngel for your view.

Since 1000spins has better chance for narrowing RTM,

thus I think,
maybe we have no choice,
but play them, especially the RNG,
since they may, or are programmed to RTM,
when nearing 1000spins!

If 1000spins, almost always, RTM,
then why not we take full advantage ,
and exploit it, to fullest?

With some flexible progression,
As we see, STREAKS of hits,
will come in the course
of the 1000spins...

If you bet with your ME style,
you avoid short term variance,
and
if you start with, EC,='405ME' ,

say start with 2, instead of one unit,
then when streaks hit ,
you soon, hit the breakeven,
and win.

The shortcoming, is waiting time....
not for table bet though...

You say,
========================
Fail to meet minimum expectation
during first checkpoint interval and you shall proceed to the next one.
==============================
Does this mean you cut-loss,
and try to recover?




Thanks.

The most important ,
I think,

is understanding the RTM,
after the initial,  variance,

RTM, simply mean,
narrowing of differences, albeit the edge.

they may, or may not breakeven,
thus , a progression,
is needed to take advantage,
of these RTM effect.

when, they mostly,
narrowing to near breakeven.

Variance avoidance  knowledge,
also play, a very important part.

thus,
1] The breakeven effect,
2] A sturdy progression,
3] Variance avoidance strategy.

=======================
1] The breakeven effect,

if  your bet selection,
do not make the winning hit toward RTM,
then you are doom.

2] A sturdy progression,

a mild and sturdy progression,
or rather stop betting the progression.

when you know,
that the next few progression,
if even hit,
will not rake in profit.
Then why bet continuously???

3] Variance avoidance strategy.

this already a stale subject...

Albalaha says,
after 100millions spins test,

100cycles of 37spins=more or less ,
to breakeven, albeit green for outside bet.
and for singles, almost equalise.
Thus,
3700spins, for single =more or less 100hits.

thus,
By applying BlueAngel's ME progression.

100x35payout=3500u,
that -200u, HouseEdge!

Thus in an OVERSIMPLIFIED example...
where the

first 3600spin=lose
last 100spin=hit
=================


spin...bet u...losses..ME
0.....................[3500ME]

if single sleep for 500spins, then,

500th...[1u]...[-500]...[3500]
3499th..[1u]..[-3499]...[3500]
3500th..2u....[-3501]...[7000]


3600th=..2u ...[-3701]=...[7000]
3601
to
3700=hit=35x2x100=???

==============
Thus I think, the long spins, the only way to build a HG!

=================

Albalaha says,
after 100millions spins test,
the worst ever he could find,
is 256dozen/1000spins.

Thus taking 256dz/1000spins,
as the limit, we could make a strategy.

By applying BlueAngel's progression.

256dz minimum expectation
=256x2payout=512ME.


Thus in an OVERSIMPLIFIED example...
where the
first 744spin-lose
last 256spin=hit

we could bet 1u till 511st spin.
========================
spin--bet unit-losses---ME
1st....[1u].[-1u]....[512]

to the..

511st..[1u].[-511u]..[512]
512nd..[2u].[-513]..[1024]
513rd..[2u].[-515]..[1024]
514th..[2u].[-517]..[1024]
515th..[2u].[-519]..[1024]

...up to..

744th..[2u].[-977]..[1024]

and following are 256wins

after 256win=x2ux2=[+1024]
=+47unit profit...






===================

How about EC,
Albalaha say worst EC=405/1000.

thus by applying BlueAngel's ME progression...

spin..bet u..losses..ME
0...................[405]

404th..1u....[-404].[405]

405th..2u....[-406].[810]

594th..2u...[-784]..[810]

the rest=hit,
405x2u=810-..=..profit.

 Let say,
in an OVERSSIMPLIFIED hypothesis.

EC sleeps for 404spins, then if we bet falt, then at 404th spin, we have -404u losses,
then we need a streak of 405win, to win 1u,

1st   spin=lose..=-1u
to
404th spin=lose=-404u.[405win/remaining=596spins]

the problem , is there still 190losing spins to tackle!
Then how are we going to "progress"???


-----------------------------------------------------------
in whatever patterns they can appear.???
If we start betting from the 1st spin???

BlueAngel's marthy 1234...stepping up every 37cycle,

I wonder..., 

"could yours win, if only 405/100hits???"
in whatever patterns they can appear.???

BlueAngel? You read this?

Going by Albalaha's finding,
then,
in an oversimplified example,

if we see, say,
an EC sleep for 10spins,
then there will at least 405/990spins.

thus a 'worst' table below.

sleep for...

0 spin=405hits/1000spins.[40.5%]
10spins=405hits/990spins.[40.9%]
20spins=405hits/980spins.[41%]
30spins=405hits/970spins.[41.7%]

to...

190spins=405/810spins=breakeven?!

=====================