I noticed the site has had a bit of an update with some fancy new pictures.

Here is a direct link to the numbers.

http://www.spielbank-wiesbaden.de/index.php?id=101&L=1

The American 00 wheel is fascinating having compared it to the European single 0 wheel.

[attachimg=1]



What I particularly like about it is how 13 of the split bets are practically the opposite of each other on the wheel layout.

You have the following.....

0/00
1/2
5/6
7/8
11/12
13/14
17/18
19/20
23/24
25/26
29/30
31/32
35/36

Now something I have noticed over many years of play is how quite often you can get very distinct spikes showing hot numbers more or less directly opposite of each other.

So using the splits as shown above on the American 00 wheel may present opportunities to construct a bet where you can keep the outlay low.

Here is a 200 spin example I just created.....

[attachimg=2]

200 spins / 18 = 11.11. So a split should have appeared on average 11 times.

So looking at the above picture, I am looking for any of my splits that have appeared over 11 times.

0/00 = 15 times.
11/12 = 16 times.
23/24 = 12 times.
25/26 = 13 times.

So 4 of the 13 splits have performed above expectation.

I will do some further research on this because it looks promising.

cheers

You always seem to get a lot of debates on forums with people saying you can't win against negative expectation games in the long run unless you have some kind of edge.

Normally someone will come along and show you a graph and point out to the - 2.70% after a million spins or so and say there you go.  However you tend to find that these methods used a fixed bet selection all the way through.

Remember the 'Turbogenius' methods....they had big peaks and troughs looking at the graphs. This I believe was the symptom of Turbo using a fixed bet selection (sleepers in his case)

It strikes me that a more fluid bet selection could try to take advantage of all the different scenarios that you are going to encounter over a fixed set of spins and give you a lot more opportunity to come out in front.

You know, I actually question why intelligent people would continually test simulations using fixed parameters when it's obvious that the results are always going to end up negative. All they are proving to themselves is what they already know. (fixed bet selections don't work)

The time could be spent much more wisely looking at the flow of results and trying to work out how you can capture these movements and turn the negative results into something positive.

You can use AP play as an example....

A card counter does not have the advantage every round. He/she bets more when the true count is positive.

A VB player needs to find good conditions to gain an edge.

I am suggesting someone playing roulette can gain a similar type of advantage by adjusting on a spin by spin basis with the characteristics the wheel is displaying at that moment in time. This in itself is a type of AP play in my opinion.

There are no guarantees just as there no guarantees that the blackjack dealer is not going to hit that 21 or that the ball is going to scatter a few numbers more than what the VB player was hoping for.

Nothing is going to work 100% of the time. You only need to be slightly more right than you are wrong to profit.

I  was doing some testing tonight with the mongoose staking plan and decided to tweak it to play double dozens. It went rather well in the limited testing I completed. It is slightly different to the original mongoose.

There are three steps to this tweak....


Step 1 is a parlay attempt.

So I am looking for two consecutive hits on the double dozens. A loss on the first or second bet is a complete loss.

example:

1a) Bet 1 unit on 1st dozen and 1 unit on 2nd dozen. 

if win....

1b) Bet 1.5 units on 1st dozen and 1.5 units on 2nd dozen.

so.....

L is a total loss.

WL is a total loss.

WW is a win and move on to Step 2.



Step 2 is a possible two step progression.

1a) Bet 0.75 units on 1st dozen and 0.75 units on second dozen. (if win, move to step 3)

if I lose the above bet.....

1b) Bet 1.50 units on 1st dozen and 1.50 units on second dozen. (if win, move to step 3)

A loss on 1b is a total loss.


Step 3 is a possible two step progression.

1a) Bet 0.75 units on 1st dozen and 0.75 units on 2nd dozen. (if win...end of game!)

if I lose the above bet....

1b) Bet 1.50 units on 1st dozen and 1.50 units on 2nd dozen. (win or lose = end of game)


Here are all the possible scenarios....

WW/W/W  +4.0 units.

WW/W/LW  +3.25 units.

WW/LW/W  +3.25 units.

WW/LW/LW  +2.50 units.

WW/LL  -2.0 units.

WW/LW/LL  -2.0 units.

WW/W/LL  -1.25 units.

L  -2.0 units.

WL  -2.0 units.



cheers

I have recently finished reading a book called 'Renzoni on Baccarat'

It was published some 41 years ago and there is no system/strategy as such. However there is certainly a lot of common sense and sound advice. It can apply to all table games and so I am going to put up some extracts from the book.

Renzoni took the game of Baccarat from Cuba over to Vegas where the game was first introduced at the Sands Hotel. Renzoni is said to have witnessed between 10 and 20 million Baccarat decisions in his 40 years as a professional.

Hello 

I would like to share the idea of 2nd's + 3rd's here.

There is an Excel sheet at the bottom with an example using Black/Red and Low/High.

I will use the Black numbers in the sheet to give an example....

What I am tracking for is to see if a Black number goes to 2 hits and then goes on to 3 hits.

33
26
26
31
33
8

There are 6 consecutive black numbers there and so I put a W for both the 2nd's and the 3rd's.

The next black numbers....

29
13

Now there are only 2 black numbers there. So I put a W in the 2nd's and an L in the 3rd's.

Next up...

8

Only 1 black number there. So an L goes in the 2nd's and I can't put anything in the 3rd's.

Next up...

29
24

2 black numbers. So a W in the 2nd's and an L in the 3rd's.

What I am playing close attention at is the W's and L's in the 2nd's + 3rd's.

It's possible to get a run of L's in the 2nd's.....BUT.....a run of W's in the 3rd's. This would happen if you got runs of just either 1 black and runs of 3+ blacks.

Charting all three E.C's (Black/Red, Low/High, Odd/Even) is the way to go.

A tracker would do the job OR you could just skip a spin or two in a B+M casino to give you time to track everything.

Of course....you could track 2nd's, 3rd's + 4th's and even use this idea for dozens and columns.

It is just another way to look for betting the W's OR L's depending on what's happening in the 2nd's and 3rd's.

cheers.

Hello Guys

This casino has opened up using the dublinbet live feed.

https://www.viewcasino.com/

The good thing about them if you live in the UK is that you can play in £ (pounds) and your money does not get converted into euros and then back to £ (pounds) when you make a withdrawal.

I am pretty certain that anybody who already has an account at dublinbet would qualify for the 50% cashback on their first deposit as well.

cheers

Just messing around with RX and thought I would test this progression with DBL (decision before last) on the E/C's.

The progression itself is simple....+1 on a win or loss until you reach a new high.

It always seems to go well when I give it a quick blast.

The danger with DBL would be a string of 'terrible two's' alternating.

This quick test did reach a 20 unit bet once! It needs a decent B/R and a strong constitution!

cheers

I was having a look at this one tonight as it is a new one to me.

They have Live Dealer games from Macau with minimum bet of £1.

You get 20 free spins on the slots for signing up.

They also give you a 200% match bonus on your initial deposit plus a further 180 free spins. (20 a day over 9 days)

What I like about the 200% bonus is that it only comes with a x5 wagering requirement. This is pretty much unheard of today. (unfortunately the bonus does not apply to roulette)

I watched the Live Roulette for 20 minutes or so and the wheel has no scatter on it like the dublinbet wheels. It threw up a lot of repeats and neighbours in the time I watched it. I didn't get kicked out for just viewing either.

They don't accept U.S. players.....but it looks ok for the European guys. 

Hello

This could be a great area where we share info on gambling related material.

My favourite game is Roulette and I have many books on the subject. So I will attempt to re-read them all and share some info.

I make an effort to try and re-invest some of my roulette winnings into books that I think look interesting. Many people do something similar in all areas of life....like taking that P.C. course to improve your skills and job prospects. So why should our gambling enterprises be any different.

One thing I am not looking for in a roulette book is the 'holy grail'. I would be constantly dissapointed if that was the case. What I am looking for is to hopefully learn one little piece of info that I can add to what I already know or maybe get an idea or two that can spark some creative thinking.

So on with the show.....

The first book I am going to review is 'Gamble to win: Roulette' by R.D. Ellison.

I just received it yesterday and I am almost finished. I have known about this book for several years and the claims by the author of a 7% edge over a 00 wheel. It has kind of had mixed reviews on the various forums.

The centrepiece of the book is the 3Q/A reverse method. I will need to explain this in my own words so as not to infringe on any copyright. Thankfully it is not a complicated method and I was surprised by the simplicity of it. I thought it might be much more complicated than what it is.

I will run some tests and come back and explain the idea with my results and we can see if it holds up to tha author's claims. I am not holding my breathe to be honest...but hey, you never know!

cheers

I was playing at a few casinos today and the speed of the dealing is ridiculous in some cases.

Dublinbet Punto Banco (baccarat) is around 2/3 hands a minute with no players at the table.

The roulette there seems pretty fast as well.

I notice all the Playtech casinos have around 20 second spins as well.

Does this put any of you guys off? Do you prefer playing RNG because of this?

I am curious. Somebody once said 'system' players lose more money than anybody else. So why anger them by spinning like the clappers. Is it because more online players are likely to be using a system compared to the B+M players and are a bit more savvy.

The only casino that seems to give you a bit of extra time is Smartlive with their 60 second spins.

Does it all just boil down to the fact that they are greedy and more spins per minute = more [smiley]aes/money.png[/smiley].  (probably)

The action hots up today in the first Semi-Final at Wembley Stadium.

I think New Zealand have a great opportunity to book their place in the Final at the expense of England and face Australia who should beat Fiji later on with the minimum of fuss.

The Kiwis look the in-form team to me, in this comp and have superstars across the park.

Most of their players compete in the Australian NRL.

Quite a few of them (Sonny Bill-Williams, Jared Warrea-Hargreaves and Roger Tuivasa-Shek) play for the Sydney Roosters who have just won the Premiership back in October. Throw in Foran from Manly and the Bunnies hooker Isaac Luke and you are looking at a strong classy outfit.

I watched England against France in the Quarter Final last week and they dissapointed me. They looked slow and pedestrian in attack and I am not convinced they have the intensity in defence to stop the Kiwis scoring 4-5 tries.

Looking at the betting....

Ladbrokes are going 10/11 giving England a 6 point start. (This equals a converted try)

Alternatively.....you can get 4/9 on a Kiwi Win in 80 minutes.

I am going down the handicap route.

This IMO is one of those 5* betting opportunities that does not come around too often.

As they say in the trade......Fill yer boots! 

cheers

How about a section on Roulette books?

There are 500 members, and we have likely read everything out there between us all.

A thread could discuss a book and also suggest improvements that have been made along the way.

It would be good to have it all in one section as a reference point.

cheers

http://www.ebay.co.uk/itm/Detailed-notes-on-the-2009-James-Grosjean-book-Beyond-Counting-Exhibit-CAA-/290922970307?pt=US_Nonfiction_Book&hash=item43bc5c3cc3

I have been reading about this book over the last few days and supposedly it's hard to get hold of and goes for around 1k-2k a pop.

Anyway...this guy is offering all the pertinent notes from the book.

He explains in a short youtube video at the bottom of the page.

cheers


p.s. And just in case anyone has a copy....I always help little old ladies across the street and I am a devout Christian....honest!!

I like the odd game for low stakes to see if I can hit something!

It will pay for a few drinks. [smiley]aes/wine.png[/smiley]

[attachimg=1]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pareto_principle

Thought I would mention this here as well.

Also known as the 80/20 rule.


I notice it a lot in sport as well. A football team may score two goals very close together or a rugby team puts 20 points on the opposition in the space of 15-20 minutes.

Can it apply to roulette?

There are times you could be playing two dozens using a progression and lose your shirt. Is the casino enjoying it's 80/20 moment?

Other times....you could be betting just 4-8 numbers and hitting every other spin!


Many professional horseplayers have said that their winnings tend to come in spells and at other times they could not back a winner to save their life.

So what would be the key elements to try and take advantage?

Patience

Awareness

Does it then suggest that attempting to pinpoint these 80/20 spells and use some type of positive MM approach will be much more effective in the long run than using a negative progression during lean spells looking to recoup losses quickly?

It would also raise the question of why some people don't consider 'hit and run' tactics effective. Why would anyone not want to quit with a profit if the windows of opportunity are short?



It is certainly food for thought and I am just throwing out there to get some opinions.

cheers

This thread will throw out some stats for Hot Numbers in the hope that it might inspire some fresh ideas.

I am going to do the stats in 3 cycles of 37 spins.

So I will have results at the 37, 74 and 111 spin mark.

What I am wanting to find out is the average for things like.....

how many times does the hottest number appear.

how many numbers don't appear  etc....

It will hopefully build up a profile to use as a framework when coming up with new ideas.

Any suggestions are welcome. 

Fed up with waiting 3-5 days for withdrawals to come through? 


Let's say you walk into a Paddypower shop and deposit £100 on the card. You then go home and win £100 at the Live Casino.

You can now go back to the Paddypower shop and collect your winnings over the counter. (same day if you like)

I think it's great for budgeting and giving the player a bit more control over things. [smiley]aes/beer.png[/smiley]

I was reminded tonight of an idea I came up with a few years ago. So I decided to take another look and see if I could tweak it a bit.

There are 8 combinations for three results on the E/C's.

1. BBB   EEE   LLL
2. BRB   EOE   LHL
3. BBR   EEO   LLH
4. BRR   EOO   LHH
5. RRR   OOO   HHH
6. RBR   OEO   HLH
7. RRB   OOE   HHL
8. RBB   OEE   HLL

So what to do is mark the groups as they are coming out and wait for the last 2 groups to be missing.

example:

1
2
3
4
5
6  (here the 7+8 are the last two groups missing)

Now there are 4 sets of 'last two groups missing' that I am interested in.

The 1+8

The 4+5

The 1+3

The 5+7

If the 1+8 are the missing 2 groups...Bet for either R, O or H on the 2nd and 3rd spin of the next three spins.

If the 4+5 are the missing 2 groups...Bet for either B, E or L on the 2nd and 3rd spin of the next three spins.

If the 1+3 are the missing 2 groups...Bet for either R, O or H on the 1st and 2nd spin of the next three spins.

If the 5+7 are the missing 2 groups...Bet for either B, E or L on the 1st and 2nd spin of the next three spins.

You have to keep updating as each new set of three spins appear. You will either have the same two groups missing or one of the missing groups will appear and you need to update your record.

It would be far too cumbersome just playing one EC group.

The 'last two groups missing' can appear in 28 different combinations...

1/2, 1/3, 1/4, 1/5, 1/6, 1/7, 1/8.

2/3, 2/4, 2/5, 2/6, 2/7, 2/8.

3/4, 3/5, 3/6, 3/7, 3/8.

4/5, 4/6, 4/7, 4/8.

5/6, 5/7, 5/8.

6/7, 6/8.

7/8.

So there are not going to be loads of opportunities waiting for the 4 groups (1+8, 4+5, 1+3, 5+7)

I have attatched a sheet with a quick example.

There are two qualifiers to bet on...

The 4+5 in the RED+BLACK column and the 1+8 in the ODD+EVEN column.

You can easily see in the sheet how the 'last two groups missing' can stay absent for a while. A dozen is a 1 in 3 chance and can go missing for 10-15 spins at times. These 'last two groups missing' are a 1 in 4 chance and therefore can stay absent for 20+ at times.

*The Q stands for qualified meaning there is a bet and obviously the W and L are for win and loss.

cheers   

Not to be confused with 'three men and a baby' although you could be left holding the baby with this one! [smiley]blacy/blacy-grimace.png[/smiley]

The idea came to me the other day when I was reading the Star Progression PDF.

It is pretty simple really. You pick 2 dozens and are hoping (praying) one of them repeats to win the parlay bet.

Like the STAR, you could use a gentle up as you lose progression.

So the first few steps...

1) 1-3-9
2) 2-6-18
3) 3-9-27 etc...

Now here is a sequence of dozens...

3
1
3
1
2
2

Here is the example...

I am going to bet for Dozens 1 and 2.

1 chip each on D1 and D2. Result = 3. A loss on both dozens. I am -2.

1 chip each on D1 and D2. Result = 1. A win on D1 and a loss on D2. I am at -3 although I have 3 units riding on D1 for the parlay attempt.

3 chips riding on D1 and 1 chip on D2. Result = 3. My parlay lost as well as D2. I am - 5 now.

1 chip each on D1 and D2. Result = 1. A win on D1 and a loss on D2. I am at -6 although I have 3 units riding on D1 for the parlay attempt.

3 chips riding on D1 and I am going to go up to 2 chips on D2. Result = 2. My parlay lost. I did win on D2 and now have 6 units riding on D2 for the parlay attempt. I am - 7 now.

2 chips on D1 and 6 units are riding on D2 for the parlay attempt. Result = 2. The parlay won and D1 lost. I am + 7 now.

That's it! You could get cute with the bet selection. One idea would be to use the dozens AND the columns to pick the hottest two to play. It might be a good idea to have a daily loss limit as well if you were trying this.

You don't even need to use dozens or columns. Any bet selection that comprises 1/3 would do if you can find two of them that work together. The trick is to find two that have the ability to streak.

At the end of the day, it's just another progression twist. I quite like this one however.

cheers

I am still doing some research on Hot Numbers.

Have a look at this picture.

[attach=1]

So I am playing for 1 or 2 hot numbers using a mild progression and only play for a cycle of 37 spins.

The times are the interesting part.

Have a look at any game over 10 minutes.

10m49s)  0.01
11m2s)  0.21
17m52s)  -0.74
20m44s)  -0.78
11m1s)  0.07
10m21s)  0.32
14m8s)  0.00

So that's 7 games for a total loss -0.91

The other 15 games were all under 10 minutes and produced a total of +495 units.

So it strikes me that it's a waste of time chasing the hot numbers later on in the 37 spin cycle going on these stats.

I am pretty convinced that playing just one or two numbers is the best way to go!

I played on betvoyager this morning for a few hours just to see how long it would take me to reach 100 units profit.

The way I did it was to play in cycles. I would quit on a losing cycle of 37 spins or quit on a winner before 37 spins.

Then I just logged back on and started again.

[attachimg=1]

Things did not start great! I was down around 115 units at one stage. However I did end up 102 units ahead after 21 games. This was all done flat betting.

Here is a running count..

-37 (-37)
+28 (-9)
-37 (-46)
+18 (-28)
+2 (-26)
-37 (-63)
-31 (-94) I got cut off early here.
+9 (-85)
+35 (-50)
+23 (-27)
+18 (-9)
-37 (-46)
+12 (-34)
+33 (-1)
+23 (+22)
+25 (+47)
-37 (+10)
+4 (+14)
+29 (+43)
+34 (+77)
+25 (+102)

What has got me thinking is how to take advantage of the times when variance is favourable. There are some periods in those 21 games when a few early hits are coming back to back.

I don't think it makes sense to use a negative progression betting one number. But I also don't think it would make sense to use some kind of positive progression for a full 37 spin cycle.

So I was thinking of something like a front loaded progression when things are going well.

There used to be few guys who suggested playing a kind of front loaded progression on the old GG forum. I had a look and the info is pretty sparse. But it's something to think about.

Don't discount playing just a number a two. There was a 200 unit turnaround in the games above in just a few hundred spins.

cheers

http://www.albionresearch.com/kelly/default.php

cheers

The Leader Of The Pack

I have done some research lately on hot numbers looking to see if I could find an angle of attack.

There are a few things that stand out.

One of them is that there appears to be a natural leader on a lot of occasions.

As an example:

18
27
18

So you can see that the 18 has already made a double appearance.

15
35
29
27

Now the 27 has caught up with the 18 and they have both appeared twice.

What I mean by the natural leader is that the 18 which was the first number to appear twice will now go on and make a third appearance to go into the lead again. This example is an easy one just to explain the basic idea.

What I did was open up a new cycle after the old one had completed 37 spins. Then I kept adding to the original and new cycle.

So you would have 3 different sets after 111 spins.

One with 111 spins.

One with 74 spins.

One with 37 spins.

It is very hard to find a cycle where a number completely runs away with things. But there does seem quite often a leader of the pack which keeps putting it's nose in front once it is challenged.

Creating bets from dozens and columns is one of my favourite ways of playing roulette.

Why do I say that?

Because dozens and columns can sleep. This creates variance. You need variance if you are a flat bettor and hope to profit in a session.

What I am going to show you is something that I can't really say that I have seen anyone else mention on any of the forums.

The first aim is to find out what is the sleeping dozen and column.

I will type out a few examples....

23 2B (So this is pretty self explanatory. 23 belongs to the second dozen and column B)
36 3C (1A) (36 belongs to the third dozen and column C. So the sleeping dozen is the 1 and the sleeping column is the A. Hence the 1A at the end in the brackets)

Another example....

09 1C
06 1C
11 1B
34 3A (2C)

Another....

33 3C
27 3C
10 1A (2B)

So you get the idea. The sleeping dozen and column could also be referred to as the furthest back dozen and column.

Now what I have found quite often is that one of either the sleeping dozen or column will appear on the next spin.

So taking the most recent example above....

33 3C
27 3C
10 1A (2B)
19 2A (3B)  (You can see how the sleeping second dozen appeared here)

Let's grab another number....

33 3C
27 3C
10 1A (2B)
19 2A (3B)
30 3C (1B)  (The sleeping third dozen appeared here)

Now here is what I have noticed....

You can see above how the sleeping dozen keeps changing. However the sleeping column keeps sleeping.

So how would you take advantage of this?

Look at the number 10 in the above example. Let's say you want the second dozen to appear and the column B to remain sleeping.

So you would be looking for the second dozen to appear. But it can only appear in either column A or Column C if the B column is to remain sleeping.

So that's going to be either 2A or 2C.

2A is represented by the 13/16 split and the 19/22 split.

2C is represented by the 15/18 split and the 21/24 split.

You can see that the number appearing after the 10 was 19 and this belongs to one of the 4 splits above.

So the new sleeping dozen and column after the 19 came was 3B.

So repeating the process....

I am looking for the column B to remain sleeping. However I am going to bet for the third dozen to appear.

So what I am looking for is either 3A or 3C.

3A is represented by the 25/28 split and the 31/34 split.

3C is represented by the 27/30 split and the 33/36 split.

The next number out was 30 belonging to the 3C.

The new sleeping dozen and column is now 1B.

Like I said, you will find this happens a lot. You do get a change in the sleeping dozen and column. But we also know that dozens and columns can sleep for a long time. So this means that sometimes you are going to get just either the sleeping dozen or column changing continuously leaving the other to sleep. This allows you to play just 4 splits.

One thing I have noticed with dozens and columns is how the variance tends to come and go in waves.

So you will get something like....

28 3A
11 1B (2C)
07 1A (2C)
28 3A (2C)
31 3A (2C)
04 1A (2C)   (So you can see here how the 2C continues to sleep as the missing dozen and column. Obviously you would not bet what I am describing above when you see this happen. Just be patient and wait for one of either the sleeping dozens or columns to start appearing)

Here is an example of that....

09 1C
28 3A (2B)
14 2B (1C)
15 2C (1A)
22 2A (1B)
32 3B (1C)   (You can see here how the sleeping dozen and column keep changing every spin)

It does not matter if it does not change every so often.

You might get something like....

change
change
not change
change
change
change
not change

This is ok just getting the odd intermittent no change. You can work through this.

Where you don't want to betting is....

not change
not change
change
not change
not change
not change
change

Like I said, I have noticed these trends seem to be easier to read and are more pronounced when working with dozens and columns. It is not difficult to get the hang of it.

cheers